Article: 4 Bold Brewers Predictions for 2022

[Tim Muma]

Fans, experts, and others around baseball see the 2022 Milwaukee Brewers as a genuine contender for a World Series title. Typically when a club finds its way to the top of the game, it is the beneficiary of some tremendous performances - from both individuals and the team. Predicting a championship would be the ultimate bold prediction, but we'll save that possibility for another article.

The challenge in creating “bold predictions” is finding areas that would be extremely impressive or rare and somewhat realistic. Keep that in mind as you ponder the possibility of these happening for the 2022 Brewers.

Christian Yelich Collects a Career-Best 40 Doubles
If you believe in OPS+ where 100 is league average, Christian Yelich was 3% better than league average the past two seasons with his 103 OPS+. Based on comments by many fans, you’d think he was one of the worst hitters in baseball since the start of 2020.

The significant drop-off – and a large part of the perception – comes from the complete disappearance of his power. After 36 homers in 2018 and 44 in 2019, Yelich has hit just 21 dingers over his last 722 plate appearances. Then his slugging percentage of .373 last season marked a career-worst.

I think there is a bounce-back coming, but it will look a little different. Yeli likely isn’t a 30-homer guy anymore; however, there’s a chance he rediscovers his swing to raise his batting average, find some gaps, and hit frozen ropes from line to line. Sometimes when a player loses some home run power, those balls turn into doubles more frequently.

Should Yelich reach 40 doubles in 2022, it would mark a career-high in a single season. His previous best was 38 with the Miami Marlins in 2016. Yelich only collected 19 two-baggers last season, so a jump to 40 doubles would be huge – and likely mean the Brewers' offense is in good shape.

Pitchers Allow Fewest Runs per Game in Franchise History
Not to be confused with ERA, the 1992 Brewers’ pitching staff holds the franchise record for the fewest runs allowed per game at 3.73. One could argue this is a pitching and defense mark since unearned runs would count against this number, unlike ERA. The ’92 Milwaukee defense had the best defensive efficiency percentage (.725), the percentage of balls in play converted into outs.

Some may not realize how good the pitchers were in ‘92. Three starters – Bill Wegman, Jamie Navarro, and Chris Bosio – each tossed more than 230 innings and owned ERAs of 3.20, 3.33, and 3.62, respectively. Rookie Cal Eldred came up partway through the season to go 11-2 with a 1.79 ERA over 100 1/3 frames, while the bullpen owned the league’s lowest ERA (2.78) and OPS allowed (.643). A look at the top-5 in Brewers history for single-season runs allowed per game:

Year	League	RA/G ▲	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	SO9	HR9
1992	AL East	3.73	127	435	793	1.221	4.90	0.78
1971	AL West	3.78	130	569	795	1.322	5.05	0.83
1988	AL East	3.80	125	437	832	1.236	5.17	0.78
1972	AL East	3.81	116	486	740	1.275	4.79	0.75
2021	NL Central	3.85	168	537	1618	1.179	10.14	1.05

We all know how good the 2022 pitching staff should be. With Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta at the top of the rotation, one could argue there are three NL Cy Young candidates on the club. Add in an often-dominant bullpen led by Josh Hader and Devin Williams, and you can see the challenge for opposing hitters. The performances of the back half of the rotation, the middle relief corps, and the defense will all factor into achieving this franchise mark.

Milwaukee allowed 3.85 runs/game last season, good for 5th in club history and just 0.13 runs/game shy of setting the franchise record. The 2022 defense ranked 3rd in the NL in defensive efficiency at .708, well shy of the 1992 defense. With a slightly improved defense and more development from the frightening pitching staff, the 2022 Brewers run prevention could easily be the best in club history.

Willy Adames Finishes in Top-5 of MVP Voting
The 26-year-old energetic shortstop ignited the Brewers' offense when he came to Milwaukee via Tampa Bay last May. Despite a quad strain late in the season that limited his production and forced him to miss games, Willy Adames posted a .285/.366/.521 (.886) line in 99 contests with the Brewers.

Adames struggled in his former home stadium with the Rays. He told reporters on more than one occasion that he had trouble picking up the baseball at Tropicana Field. That explains his .217/.275/.341 (.616) numbers in his former home park. Something was up, and he took steps toward proving his theory true in his first season with the Crew.

The other encouraging development that could raise Adames into the top-5 of MVP voting is his progress in a few critical areas since 2018. He has shown better bat control to hit balls hard off the barrel at a higher clip. Adames has also learned to get the ball in the air more as his launch angle has increased by 8.3 degrees the past four seasons – an indication that even more homers could be coming.

Playing 81 games at American Family Field (and only two in Tampa) makes it more realistic to think Adames can hit 30+ HR with around 100 runs and 100 RBI. His totals last year between the two teams landed him with 25 dingers, 32 doubles, 77 runs, and 73 RBI. Considering how poorly he hit at Tropicana, it wouldn’t take a superhuman effort to reach career highs in many categories, allowing him to make a real run for MVP.

Pitching Staff Sets MLB Record for fWAR in a Season
It’s tough to figure out the best way to judge a pitching staff over the course of a season – and then compare it to all of baseball history – but let’s give it a shot. The 2017 Cleveland Indians hold the all-time single-season record for fWAR (FanGraphs WAR) in MLB history at 30.4 fWAR.

That rotation featured Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s bullpen was lights out, spearheaded by super reliever Andrew Miller who posted a 319 ERA+ (making him 219% better than league average). Cleveland also set the record for strikeouts in a season with 1,614 punchouts. that year. That total is now 7th all-time after the 2021 Brewers jumped in front of Cleveland into 6th place with 1,618 strikeouts.

Despite how fantastic Milwaukee’s pitching was last year, they finished just 47th all-time in the single-season ranking with a 23.6 fWAR. Burnes paced the staff with a 7.5 fWAR, while Woodruff (4.7) and Peralta (4.0) combined for nearly 9 fWAR. There is a long way to go between 2021’s 23.6 fWAR and the record-setting number, 30.5 fWAR.

The Brewers’ strikeout ability on the hill gives them a running start toward the record. As much as they need their top guns to put up huge numbers, Milwaukee also needs the lower-end hurlers to step up and add value in smaller increments. If any pitching staff were going to set an MLB record, I’d put my money down on the 2022 Brewers squad.

Go ahead and pick these apart. Please give us your thoughts on how likely these will happen in 2022. Add your own bold predictions to the comments yourself. Right before Opening Day is the best time to be optimistic about the Milwaukee Brewers.

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[Ulice Payne]

"I think there is a bounce-back coming, but it will look a little different. It’s likely Yeli isn’t a 30-homer guy anymore, however, there’s a chance he rediscovers his swing to raise his batting average, find some gaps, and hit frozen ropes from line to line. Sometimes when a player loses some home run power, those balls turn into doubles more frequently."

 

I like this take on Yelich.  I hope that's not just the fan in me talking.

[Ulice Payne]

"I think there is a bounce-back coming, but it will look a little different. It’s likely Yeli isn’t a 30-homer guy anymore, however, there’s a chance he rediscovers his swing to raise his batting average, find some gaps, and hit frozen ropes from line to line. Sometimes when a player loses some home run power, those balls turn into doubles more frequently."

 

I like this take on Yelich.  I hope that's not just the fan in me talking.

[Seth Stohs]

40 doubles would be a pretty great number, especially if he added like 18-20 homers with it... I hope he can do it because the talent is certainly there. 

[Seth Stohs]

40 doubles would be a pretty great number, especially if he added like 18-20 homers with it... I hope he can do it because the talent is certainly there. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I just don’t get Yelich. I mean, I get the technicalities of why he’s not hitting for power - he’s not elevating the ball - but I don’t get why that problem has persisted for this long. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I just don’t get Yelich. I mean, I get the technicalities of why he’s not hitting for power - he’s not elevating the ball - but I don’t get why that problem has persisted for this long. 

[Brent Sirvio]

The only really different thing is launch angle. In his MVP 2018 season, it was 5*. In 2019, it jumped to 11.3, then the kneecap, then COVID, the COVID season. In 2021, it was 2.8, the same as it was in 2016 in Miami. It would seem that he was trying to return to form, but overcompensated. Yelich's path to the ball has always been relatively flat, so seeing that double-digit number in '19 is jarring, because that's not his offensive game at all. 

Yes, he should be something more than latter-day Tony Gwynn right now, and I'm actually bullish on his ability to find that average + power combination. If he can hit the ball with authority to the opposite field, pitchers will have no choice but to come back in and up, where he can do damage.

What also didn't help him any was the lack of legitimate protection in the lineup. This is where Renfroe needs to be more than Avi Garcia's replacement, and Cutch/Tellez/Hiura/Urias/Wong need to be consistent threats to put the ball in play. None of these things solve Yelich's ability to drive the ball, but they don't put undue pressure on him to do elite things at the plate every AB, either.

[Brent Sirvio]

The only really different thing is launch angle. In his MVP 2018 season, it was 5*. In 2019, it jumped to 11.3, then the kneecap, then COVID, the COVID season. In 2021, it was 2.8, the same as it was in 2016 in Miami. It would seem that he was trying to return to form, but overcompensated. Yelich's path to the ball has always been relatively flat, so seeing that double-digit number in '19 is jarring, because that's not his offensive game at all. 

Yes, he should be something more than latter-day Tony Gwynn right now, and I'm actually bullish on his ability to find that average + power combination. If he can hit the ball with authority to the opposite field, pitchers will have no choice but to come back in and up, where he can do damage.

What also didn't help him any was the lack of legitimate protection in the lineup. This is where Renfroe needs to be more than Avi Garcia's replacement, and Cutch/Tellez/Hiura/Urias/Wong need to be consistent threats to put the ball in play. None of these things solve Yelich's ability to drive the ball, but they don't put undue pressure on him to do elite things at the plate every AB, either.

[BruisedCrew]

I would love to see the Yelich that the Brewers traded for and that we saw in the first half of the 2018 season before he went on his MVP tear.

Hitting the ball with authority to all fields with an occasional long ball would be a much welcome change to what he’s done the last two years. 
 

I’ve seen about 10 of his spring training AB’s on TV and he has looked frighteningly like the 20-21 Yelich and not at all like the first half of 2018 Yelich. 
 

Given what he’s being paid it can’t be too surprising that fans are not satisfied with a league average OPS+. 

[BruisedCrew]

I would love to see the Yelich that the Brewers traded for and that we saw in the first half of the 2018 season before he went on his MVP tear.

Hitting the ball with authority to all fields with an occasional long ball would be a much welcome change to what he’s done the last two years. 
 

I’ve seen about 10 of his spring training AB’s on TV and he has looked frighteningly like the 20-21 Yelich and not at all like the first half of 2018 Yelich. 
 

Given what he’s being paid it can’t be too surprising that fans are not satisfied with a league average OPS+. 

[KeithStone53151]

I disagree on Yelich in general but we've covered that in another thread. I also understand these are bold predictions, but one thing you didn't really mention is the impact of the DH in either of your pitching predictions. That alone is going to significantly impact our pitchers. Even if they are generally more effective than 2021 as a whole, it would be hard to be better statistically.

[KeithStone53151]

I disagree on Yelich in general but we've covered that in another thread. I also understand these are bold predictions, but one thing you didn't really mention is the impact of the DH in either of your pitching predictions. That alone is going to significantly impact our pitchers. Even if they are generally more effective than 2021 as a whole, it would be hard to be better statistically.

[Tim Muma]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I disagree on Yelich in general but we've covered that in another thread. I also understand these are bold predictions, but one thing you didn't really mention is the impact of the DH in either of your pitching predictions. That alone is going to significantly impact our pitchers. Even if they are generally more effective than 2021 as a whole, it would be hard to be better statistically.

Well, you're going to love my next post about how the DH may actually HELP the Brewers pitching staff. ?

[Tim Muma]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I disagree on Yelich in general but we've covered that in another thread. I also understand these are bold predictions, but one thing you didn't really mention is the impact of the DH in either of your pitching predictions. That alone is going to significantly impact our pitchers. Even if they are generally more effective than 2021 as a whole, it would be hard to be better statistically.

Well, you're going to love my next post about how the DH may actually HELP the Brewers pitching staff. ?