Article: Christian Yelich Should Bat Leadoff for the Milwaukee Brewers

[KeithStone53151]

14 hours ago, Tim Muma said:

It's not about being a slap hitter, just a quality all-around hitter that isn't is relied upon for 30+ HRs. His swing has changed & I don't believe he can hit 30 in a season unless the ball is juiced or he flukes into it. His back is part of the issue, I believe.

 

If he were to hit 40 doubles with a .375 OBP, the team will score a ton of runs. He already is a patient, selective hitter...that wouldn't really be a change.

If Yelich isn't hitting for power, he probably will get attacked with pitches in the zone much more consistently and 375 obp won't be realistic. He definitely needs to continue to focus on both all-around hitting and hitting for power unless his body is telling him he can't do it.

Also, there's absolutely no guarantee if he adjusts his focus to contact that he'll all of a sudden be a 375 obp/40 doubles guy anyway. In 2020 his whiff rate was a career high 33.6%. Up from 22.8 in 2018 and 28.6 in 2019. In 2021 it dropped down to 24.9%, but his hard hit rate dropped a lot and his barrel rate fell off a cliff. This tells me in 2021 he focused more on making good contact as you've suggested and less on HR...and he posted 248/362/373 with only 19 doubles in 475 PA. He also only stole 9 bases despite being on base so much. If Yelich is more healthy, stronger, irons out his mechanics...focusing on being the hitter he was makes so much more sense than punting the idea of HR and focusing on doubles, speed, and obp as a 30 year old.

[KeithStone53151]

14 hours ago, Tim Muma said:

It's not about being a slap hitter, just a quality all-around hitter that isn't is relied upon for 30+ HRs. His swing has changed & I don't believe he can hit 30 in a season unless the ball is juiced or he flukes into it. His back is part of the issue, I believe.

 

If he were to hit 40 doubles with a .375 OBP, the team will score a ton of runs. He already is a patient, selective hitter...that wouldn't really be a change.

If Yelich isn't hitting for power, he probably will get attacked with pitches in the zone much more consistently and 375 obp won't be realistic. He definitely needs to continue to focus on both all-around hitting and hitting for power unless his body is telling him he can't do it.

Also, there's absolutely no guarantee if he adjusts his focus to contact that he'll all of a sudden be a 375 obp/40 doubles guy anyway. In 2020 his whiff rate was a career high 33.6%. Up from 22.8 in 2018 and 28.6 in 2019. In 2021 it dropped down to 24.9%, but his hard hit rate dropped a lot and his barrel rate fell off a cliff. This tells me in 2021 he focused more on making good contact as you've suggested and less on HR...and he posted 248/362/373 with only 19 doubles in 475 PA. He also only stole 9 bases despite being on base so much. If Yelich is more healthy, stronger, irons out his mechanics...focusing on being the hitter he was makes so much more sense than punting the idea of HR and focusing on doubles, speed, and obp as a 30 year old.

[KeithStone53151]

14 hours ago, Tim Muma said:

It's not about being a slap hitter, just a quality all-around hitter that isn't is relied upon for 30+ HRs. His swing has changed & I don't believe he can hit 30 in a season unless the ball is juiced or he flukes into it. His back is part of the issue, I believe.

 

If he were to hit 40 doubles with a .375 OBP, the team will score a ton of runs. He already is a patient, selective hitter...that wouldn't really be a change.

If Yelich isn't hitting for power, he probably will get attacked with pitches in the zone much more consistently and 375 obp won't be realistic. He definitely needs to continue to focus on both all-around hitting and hitting for power unless his body is telling him he can't do it.

Also, there's absolutely no guarantee if he adjusts his focus to contact that he'll all of a sudden be a 375 obp/40 doubles guy anyway. In 2020 his whiff rate was a career high 33.6%. Up from 22.8 in 2018 and 28.6 in 2019. In 2021 it dropped down to 24.9%, but his hard hit rate dropped a lot and his barrel rate fell off a cliff. This tells me in 2021 he focused more on making good contact as you've suggested and less on HR...and he posted 248/362/373 with only 19 doubles in 475 PA. He also only stole 9 bases despite being on base so much. If Yelich is more healthy, stronger, irons out his mechanics...focusing on being the hitter he was makes so much more sense than punting the idea of HR and focusing on doubles, speed, and obp as a 30 year old.

[KeithStone53151]

14 hours ago, Tim Muma said:

It's not about being a slap hitter, just a quality all-around hitter that isn't is relied upon for 30+ HRs. His swing has changed & I don't believe he can hit 30 in a season unless the ball is juiced or he flukes into it. His back is part of the issue, I believe.

 

If he were to hit 40 doubles with a .375 OBP, the team will score a ton of runs. He already is a patient, selective hitter...that wouldn't really be a change.

If Yelich isn't hitting for power, he probably will get attacked with pitches in the zone much more consistently and 375 obp won't be realistic. He definitely needs to continue to focus on both all-around hitting and hitting for power unless his body is telling him he can't do it.

Also, there's absolutely no guarantee if he adjusts his focus to contact that he'll all of a sudden be a 375 obp/40 doubles guy anyway. In 2020 his whiff rate was a career high 33.6%. Up from 22.8 in 2018 and 28.6 in 2019. In 2021 it dropped down to 24.9%, but his hard hit rate dropped a lot and his barrel rate fell off a cliff. This tells me in 2021 he focused more on making good contact as you've suggested and less on HR...and he posted 248/362/373 with only 19 doubles in 475 PA. He also only stole 9 bases despite being on base so much. If Yelich is more healthy, stronger, irons out his mechanics...focusing on being the hitter he was makes so much more sense than punting the idea of HR and focusing on doubles, speed, and obp as a 30 year old.

[Tim Muma]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

If Yelich isn't hitting for power, he probably will get attacked with pitches in the zone much more consistently and 375 obp won't be realistic. He definitely needs to continue to focus on both all-around hitting and hitting for power unless his body is telling him he can't do it.

Also, there's absolutely no guarantee if he adjusts his focus to contact that he'll all of a sudden be a 375 obp/40 doubles guy anyway. In 2020 his whiff rate was a career high 33.6%. Up from 22.8 in 2018 and 28.6 in 2019. In 2021 it dropped down to 24.9%, but his hard hit rate dropped a lot and his barrel rate fell off a cliff. This tells me in 2021 he focused more on making good contact as you've suggested and less on HR...and he posted 248/362/373 with only 19 doubles in 475 PA. He also only stole 9 bases despite being on base so much. If Yelich is more healthy, stronger, irons out his mechanics...focusing on being the hitter he was makes so much more sense than punting the idea of HR and focusing on doubles, speed, and obp as a 30 year old.

It's hard to take too much stock in 2020 overall because of 1) coming off the knee injury, 2) shortened/strange spring training, and 3) short season with all the other COVID things to worry about. I'm not suggesting he "only" worry about contact. I think last year shows he needs to make adjustments to his swing, either due to his back and/or due to what appears to be a slower bat (which may be in part because of the bat).  Would explain trouble barrelling up the ball as well.

I would look at the 2016-17 versions of Yelich, which is probably more a true representation of him as a hitter. He broke out in a big way in 2018-19 for whatever reason...but those may be his literal peaks. A number of his metrics from last season are similar to his 2016-17 seasons where he had 38 and 34 doubles, as well as a .369 OBP and .376 OBP. Most hitters will change throughout their career, including getting better with plate discipline and hitting fewer HRs, which often results in more doubles (of course, not always). Again, I just personally think he needs a clear head without the "pressure" of being a power guy in the middle of the lineup.

[Tim Muma]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

If Yelich isn't hitting for power, he probably will get attacked with pitches in the zone much more consistently and 375 obp won't be realistic. He definitely needs to continue to focus on both all-around hitting and hitting for power unless his body is telling him he can't do it.

Also, there's absolutely no guarantee if he adjusts his focus to contact that he'll all of a sudden be a 375 obp/40 doubles guy anyway. In 2020 his whiff rate was a career high 33.6%. Up from 22.8 in 2018 and 28.6 in 2019. In 2021 it dropped down to 24.9%, but his hard hit rate dropped a lot and his barrel rate fell off a cliff. This tells me in 2021 he focused more on making good contact as you've suggested and less on HR...and he posted 248/362/373 with only 19 doubles in 475 PA. He also only stole 9 bases despite being on base so much. If Yelich is more healthy, stronger, irons out his mechanics...focusing on being the hitter he was makes so much more sense than punting the idea of HR and focusing on doubles, speed, and obp as a 30 year old.

It's hard to take too much stock in 2020 overall because of 1) coming off the knee injury, 2) shortened/strange spring training, and 3) short season with all the other COVID things to worry about. I'm not suggesting he "only" worry about contact. I think last year shows he needs to make adjustments to his swing, either due to his back and/or due to what appears to be a slower bat (which may be in part because of the bat).  Would explain trouble barrelling up the ball as well.

I would look at the 2016-17 versions of Yelich, which is probably more a true representation of him as a hitter. He broke out in a big way in 2018-19 for whatever reason...but those may be his literal peaks. A number of his metrics from last season are similar to his 2016-17 seasons where he had 38 and 34 doubles, as well as a .369 OBP and .376 OBP. Most hitters will change throughout their career, including getting better with plate discipline and hitting fewer HRs, which often results in more doubles (of course, not always). Again, I just personally think he needs a clear head without the "pressure" of being a power guy in the middle of the lineup.

[Tim Muma]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

If Yelich isn't hitting for power, he probably will get attacked with pitches in the zone much more consistently and 375 obp won't be realistic. He definitely needs to continue to focus on both all-around hitting and hitting for power unless his body is telling him he can't do it.

Also, there's absolutely no guarantee if he adjusts his focus to contact that he'll all of a sudden be a 375 obp/40 doubles guy anyway. In 2020 his whiff rate was a career high 33.6%. Up from 22.8 in 2018 and 28.6 in 2019. In 2021 it dropped down to 24.9%, but his hard hit rate dropped a lot and his barrel rate fell off a cliff. This tells me in 2021 he focused more on making good contact as you've suggested and less on HR...and he posted 248/362/373 with only 19 doubles in 475 PA. He also only stole 9 bases despite being on base so much. If Yelich is more healthy, stronger, irons out his mechanics...focusing on being the hitter he was makes so much more sense than punting the idea of HR and focusing on doubles, speed, and obp as a 30 year old.

It's hard to take too much stock in 2020 overall because of 1) coming off the knee injury, 2) shortened/strange spring training, and 3) short season with all the other COVID things to worry about. I'm not suggesting he "only" worry about contact. I think last year shows he needs to make adjustments to his swing, either due to his back and/or due to what appears to be a slower bat (which may be in part because of the bat).  Would explain trouble barrelling up the ball as well.

I would look at the 2016-17 versions of Yelich, which is probably more a true representation of him as a hitter. He broke out in a big way in 2018-19 for whatever reason...but those may be his literal peaks. A number of his metrics from last season are similar to his 2016-17 seasons where he had 38 and 34 doubles, as well as a .369 OBP and .376 OBP. Most hitters will change throughout their career, including getting better with plate discipline and hitting fewer HRs, which often results in more doubles (of course, not always). Again, I just personally think he needs a clear head without the "pressure" of being a power guy in the middle of the lineup.

[Tim Muma]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

If Yelich isn't hitting for power, he probably will get attacked with pitches in the zone much more consistently and 375 obp won't be realistic. He definitely needs to continue to focus on both all-around hitting and hitting for power unless his body is telling him he can't do it.

Also, there's absolutely no guarantee if he adjusts his focus to contact that he'll all of a sudden be a 375 obp/40 doubles guy anyway. In 2020 his whiff rate was a career high 33.6%. Up from 22.8 in 2018 and 28.6 in 2019. In 2021 it dropped down to 24.9%, but his hard hit rate dropped a lot and his barrel rate fell off a cliff. This tells me in 2021 he focused more on making good contact as you've suggested and less on HR...and he posted 248/362/373 with only 19 doubles in 475 PA. He also only stole 9 bases despite being on base so much. If Yelich is more healthy, stronger, irons out his mechanics...focusing on being the hitter he was makes so much more sense than punting the idea of HR and focusing on doubles, speed, and obp as a 30 year old.

It's hard to take too much stock in 2020 overall because of 1) coming off the knee injury, 2) shortened/strange spring training, and 3) short season with all the other COVID things to worry about. I'm not suggesting he "only" worry about contact. I think last year shows he needs to make adjustments to his swing, either due to his back and/or due to what appears to be a slower bat (which may be in part because of the bat).  Would explain trouble barrelling up the ball as well.

I would look at the 2016-17 versions of Yelich, which is probably more a true representation of him as a hitter. He broke out in a big way in 2018-19 for whatever reason...but those may be his literal peaks. A number of his metrics from last season are similar to his 2016-17 seasons where he had 38 and 34 doubles, as well as a .369 OBP and .376 OBP. Most hitters will change throughout their career, including getting better with plate discipline and hitting fewer HRs, which often results in more doubles (of course, not always). Again, I just personally think he needs a clear head without the "pressure" of being a power guy in the middle of the lineup.

[Tim Muma]

Hey KeithStone...I'm not trying to make you angry or "confused" as the emoji technically says, just having a good baseball conversation. You may be right on some/all of it...or maybe I am...or maybe it's somewhere in the middle. We likely won't see Counsell use Yelich in the leadoff spot much, if at all...so whatever. Fun to discuss.

[Tim Muma]

Hey KeithStone...I'm not trying to make you angry or "confused" as the emoji technically says, just having a good baseball conversation. You may be right on some/all of it...or maybe I am...or maybe it's somewhere in the middle. We likely won't see Counsell use Yelich in the leadoff spot much, if at all...so whatever. Fun to discuss.

[Tim Muma]

Hey KeithStone...I'm not trying to make you angry or "confused" as the emoji technically says, just having a good baseball conversation. You may be right on some/all of it...or maybe I am...or maybe it's somewhere in the middle. We likely won't see Counsell use Yelich in the leadoff spot much, if at all...so whatever. Fun to discuss.

[Tim Muma]

Hey KeithStone...I'm not trying to make you angry or "confused" as the emoji technically says, just having a good baseball conversation. You may be right on some/all of it...or maybe I am...or maybe it's somewhere in the middle. We likely won't see Counsell use Yelich in the leadoff spot much, if at all...so whatever. Fun to discuss.

[BrewCrewBBQ]

8 hours ago, clancyphile said:

The Brewers also used Eric Thames a LOT as a leadoff guy in 2017-2018 (39 times across those two seasons). He also spent 104 games batting second in those seasons. He arguably had excessive power for those two spots.

I can see the case, but if Yelich is back in shape and closer to his 2018-2019 form, he's best suited for the #3 spot.

If Yelich returns to that form, he’s the two hitter. The two hitter should be the best hitter in your lineup. Currently, I’d say that’s Adames spot. Yelich at lead off is an idea I love, he’s always on base and he’s so good and smart on the bases. I really hope Tim is right and CC sees it this way too. 

[BrewCrewBBQ]

8 hours ago, clancyphile said:

The Brewers also used Eric Thames a LOT as a leadoff guy in 2017-2018 (39 times across those two seasons). He also spent 104 games batting second in those seasons. He arguably had excessive power for those two spots.

I can see the case, but if Yelich is back in shape and closer to his 2018-2019 form, he's best suited for the #3 spot.

If Yelich returns to that form, he’s the two hitter. The two hitter should be the best hitter in your lineup. Currently, I’d say that’s Adames spot. Yelich at lead off is an idea I love, he’s always on base and he’s so good and smart on the bases. I really hope Tim is right and CC sees it this way too. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that Yelich is already penciled in the #3 spot in next Thursday's lineup.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that Yelich is already penciled in the #3 spot in next Thursday's lineup.

[BrewCrewBBQ]

6 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that Yelich is already penciled in the #3 spot in next Thursday's lineup.

What kind of doughnuts? It matters ?

 

You’re probably right but I hope at some point it does happens, unless their slash lines justify leaving it or working Yelich into 2 spot. 

[BrewCrewBBQ]

6 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that Yelich is already penciled in the #3 spot in next Thursday's lineup.

What kind of doughnuts? It matters ?

 

You’re probably right but I hope at some point it does happens, unless their slash lines justify leaving it or working Yelich into 2 spot. 

[clancyphile]

On 3/30/2022 at 5:06 PM, BrewCrewBBQ said:

If Yelich returns to that form, he’s the two hitter. The two hitter should be the best hitter in your lineup. Currently, I’d say that’s Adames spot. Yelich at lead off is an idea I love, he’s always on base and he’s so good and smart on the bases. I really hope Tim is right and CC sees it this way too. 

I'm more inclined to have a "pure" hitter bat second, with the best OPS guy batting third.

For instance, have a high-OBP guy who can steal a lot of bases bat leadoff - think Molitor (although Molitor racked up tons of doubles and had some pop). The best number two hitter is someone like Jeff Cirillo - someone who hits .300, and has a TON of doubles. If they can also steal bases (the 2017-2018 Lorenzo Cain run), that's a plus. A .Yelich who puts up a .380 OBP with 45 doubles and 30-40 steals is perfect for that, too.

3-4-5-6 is where you have Yount/2018-2019 Yelich, Braun/Fielder, Sexson/Thames, Adames/Urias/Shaw/Renfroe types, the big boppers, so when they homer, it'll be with a man or two on base.

[clancyphile]

On 3/30/2022 at 5:06 PM, BrewCrewBBQ said:

If Yelich returns to that form, he’s the two hitter. The two hitter should be the best hitter in your lineup. Currently, I’d say that’s Adames spot. Yelich at lead off is an idea I love, he’s always on base and he’s so good and smart on the bases. I really hope Tim is right and CC sees it this way too. 

I'm more inclined to have a "pure" hitter bat second, with the best OPS guy batting third.

For instance, have a high-OBP guy who can steal a lot of bases bat leadoff - think Molitor (although Molitor racked up tons of doubles and had some pop). The best number two hitter is someone like Jeff Cirillo - someone who hits .300, and has a TON of doubles. If they can also steal bases (the 2017-2018 Lorenzo Cain run), that's a plus. A .Yelich who puts up a .380 OBP with 45 doubles and 30-40 steals is perfect for that, too.

3-4-5-6 is where you have Yount/2018-2019 Yelich, Braun/Fielder, Sexson/Thames, Adames/Urias/Shaw/Renfroe types, the big boppers, so when they homer, it'll be with a man or two on base.

[BrewCrewBBQ]

17 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

I'm more inclined to have a "pure" hitter bat second, with the best OPS guy batting third.

For instance, have a high-OBP guy who can steal a lot of bases bat leadoff - think Molitor (although Molitor racked up tons of doubles and had some pop). The best number two hitter is someone like Jeff Cirillo - someone who hits .300, and has a TON of doubles. If they can also steal bases (the 2017-2018 Lorenzo Cain run), that's a plus. A .Yelich who puts up a .380 OBP with 45 doubles and 30-40 steals is perfect for that, too.

3-4-5-6 is where you have Yount/2018-2019 Yelich, Braun/Fielder, Sexson/Thames, Adames/Urias/Shaw/Renfroe types, the big boppers, so when they homer, it'll be with a man or two on base.

I know that’s been the conventional wisdom on the topic, and you could do worse than batting a guy like that third. I think I @Tim Mumawas going to do an entire lineup construction piece, so we don’t need to do a massive dive right now. In this lineup, peak Yelich would still be the two hitter. You could make a case for a later slot if he had more pop and less OBP, but with both he still slots as two. Somebody will dive into it this year, it’s a pretty fun topic. 

[BrewCrewBBQ]

17 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

I'm more inclined to have a "pure" hitter bat second, with the best OPS guy batting third.

For instance, have a high-OBP guy who can steal a lot of bases bat leadoff - think Molitor (although Molitor racked up tons of doubles and had some pop). The best number two hitter is someone like Jeff Cirillo - someone who hits .300, and has a TON of doubles. If they can also steal bases (the 2017-2018 Lorenzo Cain run), that's a plus. A .Yelich who puts up a .380 OBP with 45 doubles and 30-40 steals is perfect for that, too.

3-4-5-6 is where you have Yount/2018-2019 Yelich, Braun/Fielder, Sexson/Thames, Adames/Urias/Shaw/Renfroe types, the big boppers, so when they homer, it'll be with a man or two on base.

I know that’s been the conventional wisdom on the topic, and you could do worse than batting a guy like that third. I think I @Tim Mumawas going to do an entire lineup construction piece, so we don’t need to do a massive dive right now. In this lineup, peak Yelich would still be the two hitter. You could make a case for a later slot if he had more pop and less OBP, but with both he still slots as two. Somebody will dive into it this year, it’s a pretty fun topic. 

[brewers888]

Unless Yelich starts showing some ability to drive the ball his walk rate is going to plummet. Its time to really start wondering if this guy is even going to be an effective player much less a star going forward.

[brewers888]

Unless Yelich starts showing some ability to drive the ball his walk rate is going to plummet. Its time to really start wondering if this guy is even going to be an effective player much less a star going forward.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yelich should be considered for Leadoff.  He's great at swiping bags when he gets on. The concern for OBP is an odd concern. Hey should see better protection with the 2 and 3hitters to bat behind him with 0 outs.  If Yeli can find a way back towards MVP Yeli, it will be a simple move back to 3 in the order. 

Doubt it happens because of Wong and Handedness L/R/L. I'd also mention confidence being removed that he's a 3hitter and placed leadoff to start the season might wreck Yelich's psyche even more.  We haven't seen this yet in ST have we?

Let's get the season started and adjust. Hiura hitting bombs again like 2019 could work to Yeli in the 3spots favor.