Article: Keston Hiura and the Cactus League MVPs

[Kyle Lobner]

It would be a major development for the Brewers if Keston Hiura could regain even a fraction of his prior form and, if early spring training results are any indication, it's not outside the realm of possibility. But what does his spring training success mean?

Keston Hiura, a former first-round pick, a top prospect, and a key contributor to the Brewers' 2019 team as a rookie, has been labeled as an advanced hitter at every level since college. Sometime between the end of the 2019 season and the start of 2020 something came undone, however, and he's batted just ,192 with a .279 on-base percentage over 120 games in the last two seasons. He led the National League with 85 strikeouts in the abbreviated 2020 season and was on an even worse pace in 2021 before being sent down to the minors on multiple occasions. His approach got so far out of whack that even opposing broadcasters were picking it apart.

As Will Sammon of The Athletic noted, Hiura spent the winter working with a personal hitting coach to tone down his leg kick and improve his timing. He's one of the primary candidates to benefit from the Brewers' hitting coach regime change, with Connor Dawson, Ozzie Timmons, and Hiura's former minor league manager Matt Erickson taking over for departed coaches Andy Haines and Jacob Cruz. Through the first week of spring training games, he was immediately productive, connecting for three home runs and a double in his first 13 at-bats.

Hiura's resurgent spring raises a pair of questions. The first is how the Brewers would use him if he is, in fact, back to his prior levels of productivity at the plate. The experiment of moving him to first base last season didn't go well for anyone, and Rowdy Tellez now figures to capture the lion's share of playing time there. Kolten Wong figures to play most days at second base, and taking his glove out of the lineup even temporarily to make room for Hiura would be a defensive step back. Plate appearances in the new DH role are also at least partially spoken for with the addition of Andrew McCutchen and the ongoing productivity of Tyrone Taylor creating a roster with significantly more outfielders than spots to play them.

Even if the Brewers have room to play Hiura, however, the second question is how much value to apply to a hot spring. Every spring some hitters feast on Cactus League pitching for a variety of reasons, whether it's altitude, dry air and its impact on breaking balls, or an increased number of plate appearances against veteran pitchers who are "just working on stuff" and young pitchers who are just trying to throw strikes. Hiura himself is an example of this phenomenon: Before the shutdown in 2020 he was one of the Brewers' best Cactus League hitters, batting .393 with a .414 on-base and .893 slugging, but he did not carry that momentum into the regular season.

What follows is a quick look back at some of the Brewers' top Cactus League batters from recent seasons, and those hitters' results in the seasons that followed:

Top spring performers by on-base plus slugging (OPS):

2021:

Christian Yelich (1.357)
Kolten Wong (1.097)
Omar Narvaez (1.051)

The Brewers tied for the Cactus League lead in runs scored, were second in home runs and third in slugging percentage in 2021. So a fair number of folks had nice offensive springs on their way to a season where the team ranked in the bottom third of the NL in hits, batting average, slugging, and strikeouts. Narvaez is probably the best example of good news here: He was coming off an awful offensive season in 2020 but parlayed the momentum of a nice spring into a first half that earned him his first All-Star appearance. Christian Yelich, meanwhile, did not carry his hot bat north with him. 

2019:

Christian Yelich (1.292)
Yasmani Grandal (1.001)
Mike Moustakas (.997)

This group stands out as the best-case scenario: All three of the Brewers' best hitters in the 2019 Cactus League went on to be All-Stars during the regular season and big parts of the Crew's success. None are really parallels for Hiura, however: Yelich was the reigning NL MVP at the time and Grandal and Moustakas were both major offensive producers the year before.

2018:

Ji-Man Choi (1.245)
Nick Franklin (1.122)
Christian Bethancourt (1.055)

While several of the Brewers' projected regulars endured slow springs in 2018, a group of less-likely contributors carried the offense. Choi's resuscitation of his MLB career was the real deal but most of the best of it didn't happen in Milwaukee. He played his way onto the Opening Day roster but appeared in just 12 games for the Crew before moving on to Tampa, where he's been a solid contributor for the last 3+ seasons. Franklin played one game for the Brewers that season and hasn't appeared in the majors since, and Bethancourt never made it into a game in a Brewers uniform at all.

Previous seasons have other examples for both sides: The 2017 Brewers got big springs from pre-breakout Jesus Aguilar and Travis Shaw, but also from Ivan De Jesus Jr. 2016's top performers included Scooter Gennett (on his way to his best season to date) and Alex Presley, whose Brewers tenure was over after 47 games with a .564 OPS.

If he continues to play well and the Brewers find room for him in the lineup, a fully-operational Keston Hiura would be a major internal upgrade for an offense that was desperately in need of one for much of last season. Recent history would suggest, however, that Cactus League results alone aren't enough to prove he's back.

What do you think? Has Keston Hiura turned a corner, or does his fast spring start mean little? If he is back, how would you get him in the lineup? Leave a COMMENT below. 

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[Seth Stohs]

If he has figured something out, don't you just kind of have to find a place for him? He has that "1st round pedigree" so the talent has to be there. Maybe he's a guy who plays a game at 1B, 2B, 3B and two at DH in a typical 6-game week?

[Seth Stohs]

If he has figured something out, don't you just kind of have to find a place for him? He has that "1st round pedigree" so the talent has to be there. Maybe he's a guy who plays a game at 1B, 2B, 3B and two at DH in a typical 6-game week?

[KeithStone53151]

What part of hiura at 1b was so bad? 2021 Hiura OAA 0, uzr -0.1, drs 1. 2021 Tellez OAA -4, uzr -2.0, drs -1. The eye test validated this for me. Regarding spring stats, your primary support for why hiuras good spring numbers won't lead to success in Milwaukee are yelich, nick Franklin, christian bethancourt, Ivan de Jesus, and Alex presley. C'mon man...aside from yelich who had a wildly unprecedented collapse, these guys are nowhere near the hitting talent of hiura. None were highly regarded prospects for their bat and none hit anywhere else previously. Between all 4 guys, I see 2 total seasons at the mlb level over 700 ops...none over 800 before their hot spring with the brewers. It's a bit ridiculous to look at the history of these 4 guys as having any bearing whatsoever on what hiura might do this season

 

[KeithStone53151]

What part of hiura at 1b was so bad? 2021 Hiura OAA 0, uzr -0.1, drs 1. 2021 Tellez OAA -4, uzr -2.0, drs -1. The eye test validated this for me. Regarding spring stats, your primary support for why hiuras good spring numbers won't lead to success in Milwaukee are yelich, nick Franklin, christian bethancourt, Ivan de Jesus, and Alex presley. C'mon man...aside from yelich who had a wildly unprecedented collapse, these guys are nowhere near the hitting talent of hiura. None were highly regarded prospects for their bat and none hit anywhere else previously. Between all 4 guys, I see 2 total seasons at the mlb level over 700 ops...none over 800 before their hot spring with the brewers. It's a bit ridiculous to look at the history of these 4 guys as having any bearing whatsoever on what hiura might do this season

 

[KeithStone53151]

What part of hiura at 1b was so bad? 2021 Hiura OAA 0, uzr -0.1, drs 1. 2021 Tellez OAA -4, uzr -2.0, drs -1. The eye test validated this for me. Regarding spring stats, your primary support for why hiuras good spring numbers won't lead to success in Milwaukee are yelich, nick Franklin, christian bethancourt, Ivan de Jesus, and Alex presley. C'mon man...aside from yelich who had a wildly unprecedented collapse, these guys are nowhere near the hitting talent of hiura. None were highly regarded prospects for their bat and none hit anywhere else previously. Between all 4 guys, I see 2 total seasons at the mlb level over 700 ops...none over 800 before their hot spring with the brewers. It's a bit ridiculous to look at the history of these 4 guys as having any bearing whatsoever on what hiura might do this season

 

[KeithStone53151]

What part of hiura at 1b was so bad? 2021 Hiura OAA 0, uzr -0.1, drs 1. 2021 Tellez OAA -4, uzr -2.0, drs -1. The eye test validated this for me. Regarding spring stats, your primary support for why hiuras good spring numbers won't lead to success in Milwaukee are yelich, nick Franklin, christian bethancourt, Ivan de Jesus, and Alex presley. C'mon man...aside from yelich who had a wildly unprecedented collapse, these guys are nowhere near the hitting talent of hiura. None were highly regarded prospects for their bat and none hit anywhere else previously. Between all 4 guys, I see 2 total seasons at the mlb level over 700 ops...none over 800 before their hot spring with the brewers. It's a bit ridiculous to look at the history of these 4 guys as having any bearing whatsoever on what hiura might do this season