Game Thread (5/21/2022): Nationals (Corbin) at Brewers (Woodruff) - 6:10 PM CDT

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

OK. I’m using the term “back end” when maybe I should use the less flattering “bottom of the barrel” or “mop up”. 

Or just say “back of the bullpen”, as in the guys who are only used in mop-up or long relief duty.

But that’s also not Milner. 

[BruisedCrew]

8 minutes ago, RoCoBrewfan said:

Really?  He's 2nd on the team in appearances.  He's not a fireman.  But he's being used quite a bit.  Perdomo and Urena and Mejia are back of the bullpen.  Milner is pretty much "just a guy".  

I apologize for not using the official terminology. I’m using “back end” of the bullpen the way you would use “back end “of the starting rotation. In other words, not one of your better pitchers or one of the first guys you’d want to go to in a high leverage spot late in the game. 

If they had a 3 run lead they would bring Hader in because it’s a save situation and he’d have a little cushion. With a 4 run lead and bringing in one of your lesser relievers you’re running a risk of giving away any cushion if that reliever allows 3 baserunners. 
 

 

[BruisedCrew]

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Or just say “back of the bullpen”, as in the guys who are only used in mop-up or long relief duty.

But that’s also not Milner. 

Scratch the labels and I’ll be more direct. 
 

I don’t like seeing Milner start the 9th inning with a 4 run lead because of the uncomfortably high risk that he’ll put 3 men on base before he gets 3 outs.

 

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

3 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I apologize for not using the official terminology. I’m using “back end” of the bullpen the way you would use “back end “of the starting rotation. In other words, not one of your better pitchers or one of the first guys you’d want to go to in a high leverage spot late in the game. 

If they had a 3 run lead they would bring Hader in because it’s a save situation and he’d have a little cushion. With a 4 run lead and bringing in one of your lesser relievers you’re running a risk of giving away any cushion if that reliever allows 3 baserunners. 
 

 

I don't care about the terminology. I used it wrong as well.  I'm arguing the actual usage of the guy.  Milner has been fine this year in middle relief.  He didn't have a great outing tonight.  NBD.  He's been fine for the most part.  You can't just use Williams, Box, and Hader every single night.  You have to trust these guys, and sometimes, they're gonna give up hits.

Conversely, we can't afford a bullpen full of Josh Haders.  We're gonna have a few Trevor Gotts and Hoby Milners.  We're fine!  We're 26 - 14, and Milner and Gott have filled their roles pretty well.  

[DuWayne Steurer]

1 minute ago, BruisedCrew said:

Scratch the labels and I’ll be more direct. 
 

I don’t like seeing Milner start the 9th inning with a 4 run lead because of the uncomfortably high risk that he’ll put 3 men on base before he gets 3 outs.

 

 

Milner has a 1.00 WHIP coming into tonight.  I don't believe there's an "uncomfortably" high risk he'll put 3 guys on base.  Is there always a chance it can happen?  Sure.

Is it unattractively high?  No.

[edfunderburk]

11 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

It's not that big of a deal and Hader needed the work anyway.  Enjoy the win.  This team is pretty great right now.

Yes, the team is playing very well 

Yes, thank you, I did enjoy the win

I disagree that “it isn’t that big of a deal” to see a big league pitcher who couldn’t get three outs to secure the win when he had a four run lead to start the final inning

That certainly qualifies as a big deal to me ?

I’m concerned about a few middle relievers & CF … plenty of time to address those holes ? as we approach the trade deadline 

Otherwise, I love this team

[sveumrules]

Yeah, Milner had a 95 ERA- & 87 FIP- entering the game. He’s been a slightly above average reliever so far this year.

That he is like the 7th guy in the pecking order is a testament to the depth of the pen.

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Eye Black said:

Did I just hear that correctly, the Brewers are 20-3 when they score 4+ runs this season? That’s an 87% winning percentage when they reach 4 or more runs of support, seems pretty incredible. 

That is what he said, and that is impressive.

Given that scoring is generally lower this year I wonder if a record like that would be that unusual for a team that has good overall pitching. 
 

I did a quick look at the Dodgers scoring and they are 25-3 when scoring 4 or more runs. So, while it might not be incredible, the Brewers are in good company. 
 

I also looked quickly at the Mets and Cardinals, two other teams among the league leaders in runs allowed. The Mets are 21-3 and the Cards are 17-5 when scoring 4 or more. 
 

The league as a whole is winning about 76% of the time when scoring 4 or more runs, so I guess it shouldn’t be surprising that teams that have the best pitching would be doing better than that, especially if they are scoring more than exactly 4 in most of those games. 
 

The Brewers have only scored exactly 4 runs 3 times and are 2-1 in those games. They have also scored exactly 3 runs 3 times and are 2-1 in those games. So, maybe the Brewers magic number is really 3 runs because they are 23-4 when scoring at least that many. In 10 of their 14 losses they have scored only 2 runs or less. 

[markedman5]

I think we can all agree on one thing…….Milner is no Elmer Dessens…..

[Brock Beauchamp]

31 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Scratch the labels and I’ll be more direct. 

I don’t like seeing Milner start the 9th inning with a 4 run lead because of the uncomfortably high risk that he’ll put 3 men on base before he gets 3 outs.

This is where baseball fans go wrong and that’s win probability.

You do not use your best relievers in a one run deficit because the win probability is surprisingly low.

The inverse is true, naturally.

The win probability of that Milner inning was 99.06%. Literally less than 1 in 100 times will a baseball team lose in that situation.

So yeah, Milner had a bad day. The team still won because 99.06%. 

[markedman5]

Milner’s bad inning…..

tapper back to the mound

 liner to center for a hit…..

hard grounder that beat the shift for a single

tapper back to,the mound.

With a little better luck he could have had an uneventful inning……..he didn’t exactly suck……it’s just baseball…..

 

 

 

[bulldogboy0733]

Where is my guy who bashed me for throwing it out there to bring Hiura back and give him a real shot?? Dude was acting like it was an outrageous notion. Anybody who doesn't think this team needs to exhaust all possibilities when it comes to offense is nuts. Especially when basically they are unbeatable when they score 4 runs. He can help. what do they have to lose??

[DuWayne Steurer]

Let's be clear here.  Milner didn't "not get out of the inning".  He was pulled so Hader could get a save.  The tying run was still only in the on deck circle.  The Brewers have made it clear they'll get Hader his saves when the opportunity is there to get them.  

[BruisedCrew]

18 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is where baseball fans go wrong and that’s win probability.

You do not use your best relievers in a one run deficit because the win probability is surprisingly low.

The inverse is true, naturally.

The win probability of that Milner inning was 99.06%. Literally less than 1 in 100 times will a baseball team lose in that situation.

So yeah, Milner had a bad day. The team still won because 99.06%. 

I would question whether that’s an accurate use of the probabilities. I would say that teams win 99% of the time in those situations because in many of them they are using their best relievers. If you throw Perdomo out there that percentage is going to go down, especially if he has to face 3 hitters no matter what he does. 
 

Just to be clear, I am never one who recommends using Hader with a one run deficit. My comment tonight was simply that I get nervous using a pitcher like Milner in that situation, especially when Hader has had so little work in the last few weeks. I didn’t even say that I thought it was a bad move on Counsell’s part. It’s just that the situation is different than it was before the 3 hitter rule when you could yank a pitcher quickly if he, for example, walks the first two hitters to start the inning. 

[BruisedCrew]

19 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Milner’s bad inning…..

tapper back to the mound

 liner to center for a hit…..

hard grounder that beat the shift for a single

tapper back to,the mound.

With a little better luck he could have had an uneventful inning……..he didn’t exactly suck……it’s just baseball…..

 

 

 

To be complete he went to 3-2 on the fourth batter and was one pitch away from bringing the tying run to the plate with one out. I think Counsell was squirming a little and didn’t hesitate to yank him after that.