Game Thread (5/21/2022): Nationals (Corbin) at Brewers (Woodruff) - 6:10 PM CDT

[Eye Black]

[Eye Black]

The Nationals have lost all 8 of Patrick Corbin’s previous starts this season. Below is his Game Log this season (listed beginning with his most recent outing). 

 

For the Brewers it’s the 3rd LHP starter they faced in the past four games. On the 2022 season the Brewers have a 90 wRC+ versus LHPs (391 plate appearances) as opposed to a 112 wRC+ against RHPs (1,061 plate appearances). 

[magnoliacrew]

Would love to see Woody have a strong outing today to stabilize expectations.

[magnoliacrew]

I like Hiura playing today, but, really, haven't analytics shown that he is better against RHP?

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, magnoliacrew said:

I like Hiura playing today, but, really, haven't analytics shown that he is better against RHP?

Hiura has hit RHP better than LHP so far in his career, yes, but analytics would indicate the sample is likely too small to draw any meaningful conclusions from about Keston’s true talent levels in that regard…

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/batter-pitcher-splits-crib-sheet/

 

• Batters don’t have their platoon splits stabilize until at least 1,000 plate appearances against each hand (around 2,000 for right-handed batters)

[Brewcrew82]

Feeling pretty confident about another good start from Woody tonight to keep on that upward trajectory. But, CC, why is Hiura in the lineup once again against a lefty?! I love you to death man, but you're really killing me with this one. Besides the statistical evidence, did we not just see Hiura struggle against Fried and then take a righty to the moon for the game winner? 

[Outlander]

I have said enough about Hiura facing too many lefties and not enough righties. Instead of letting it drive me nuts, I'm just going to accept that is how Counsell manages and he isn't changing any time soon.

[folly412]

CC back to the old hit a homer, get the next day off reward system. ?

[formerlybis]

In addition to his fairly solid May numbers despite his perfectly imperfect W-L record, Corbin had an excellent outing against the Brewers in Aug 2021, only allowing 3 hits over 7 scoreless innings. Lefties against the Brewers... he's not a stiff. Need to get into the Nats bullpen.

Looking at the Brewers roster's career batting stats against him, it might be a shame that we have the DH now - our pitchers were .500 ?

 

[CdrbrgMark]

49 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Feeling pretty confident about another good start from Woody tonight to keep on that upward trajectory. But, CC, why is Hiura in the lineup once again against a lefty?! I love you to death man, but you're really killing me with this one. Besides the statistical evidence, did we not just see Hiura struggle against Fried and then take a righty to the moon for the game winner? 

Agree 100% about Hiura. CC has made some "strange" decisions for a while now, but we're still winning. Or maybe he doesn't make the game time lineup decisions either?

[Eye Black]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Hiura has hit RHP better than LHP so far in his career, yes, but analytics would indicate the sample is likely too small to draw any meaningful conclusions from about Keston’s true talent levels in that regard…

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/batter-pitcher-splits-crib-sheet/

 

• Batters don’t have their platoon splits stabilize until at least 1,000 plate appearances against each hand (around 2,000 for right-handed batters)

I have a confession… I wanted the reverse splits narrative to be a thing (it’s certainly been stark recently), but I also knew the threshold for stabilization was high so I went back earlier this week and looked at every professional at bat Hiura has had including all minor league regular season at bats (I couldn’t find platoon splits for his time in the Arizona Fall League). 

Here are the overall numbers throughout his professional career…

vs. RHP: 1,467 PA / 1,308 AB / 201 1B / 83 2B / 13 3B / 65 HR / 109 BB / 400 SO / 42 HBP

vs. RHP: .277 BA / .351 OBP / .509 SLG / .860 OPS / 27.3% SO%

 

vs. LHP: 569 PA / 498 AB / 91 1B / 29 2B / 3 3B / 21 HR / 54 BB / 172 SO / 13 HBP

vs. LHP: .289 BA / .378 OBP / .486 SLG / .864 OPS / 30.2% SO%

 

His slugging and strikeout rate have been better against RHP, but not by nearly as much as I anticipated. That being said, he’s certainly been in a funk against LHP recently and has been worse against MLB southpaws than MLB righties. 

[magnoliacrew]

6 minutes ago, Eye Black said:

I have a confession… I wanted the reverse splits narrative to be a thing (it’s certainly been stark recently), but I also knew the threshold for stabilization was high so I went back earlier this week and looked at every professional at bat Hiura has had including all minor league regular season at bats (I couldn’t find platoon splits for his time in the Arizona Fall League). 

Here are the overall numbers throughout his professional career…

vs. RHP: 1,467 PA / 1,308 AB / 201 1B / 83 2B / 13 3B / 65 HR / 109 BB / 400 SO / 42 HBP

vs. RHP: .277 BA / .351 OBP / .509 SLG / .860 OPS / 27.3% SO%

 

vs. LHP: 569 PA / 498 AB / 91 1B / 29 2B / 3 3B / 21 HR / 54 BB / 172 SO / 13 HBP

vs. LHP: .289 BA / .378 OBP / .486 SLG / .864 OPS / 30.2% SO%

 

His slugging and strikeout rate have been better against RHP, but not by nearly as much as I anticipated. That being said, he’s certainly been in a funk against LHP recently and has been worse against MLB southpaws than MLB righties. 

Good information. I'm going from a "feels" perspective with a little bit of data, so lot's of room for correction.

[SomewhereInTime]

Unless Rowdy really needs an off day today, I think he should be in the lineup everyday.  Gotta say I think I'm board with what others here have said about Huira DH vs righties in a platoon there with McCutchen.

[Brewcrew82]

Wow, some great defense in that inning. Aside from the catcher's interference on Caratini. 

[edfunderburk]

I prefer smiling Yelich to somber Yelich … we’re seeing more of his engaging smile this year 

[edfunderburk]

Good to have Cutch back to face a lefty

[edfunderburk]

There must be a CF worth acquiring somewhere in MLB 

Cain was a great Brewer back in the day … it’s time for a change

I’m fine with Taylor as the backup CF - we need a hit first CF sooner than later … a lefty with a decent glove would be ideal 

[Eye Black]

1 minute ago, edfunderburk said:

There must be a CF worth acquiring somewhere in MLB 

Cain was a great Brewer back in the day … it’s time for a change

I’m fine with Taylor as the backup CF - we need a hit first CF sooner than later … a lefty with a decent glove would be ideal 

Could probably get Trent Grisham for cheap. ?

[edfunderburk]

I had the same thought this morning ??⚾️?

[trwi7]

 Jeff and Bill waxing poetic about what a great matchup this is.  Woodruff at home against the Nationals offense and immediately the Nationals hit a homer lol.

[edfunderburk]

3 minutes ago, Eye Black said:

Could probably get Trent Grisham for cheap.

I had the same thought this morning 

️

[edfunderburk]

Just now, trwi7 said:

 Jeff and Bill waxing poetic about what a great matchup this is.  Woodruff at home against the Nationals offense and immediately the Nationals hit a homer lol.

Woody isn’t quite right so far this year

I’m ready for him to return to his 2021 consistency

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

There must be a CF worth acquiring somewhere in MLB 

Cain was a great Brewer back in the day … it’s time for a change

I’m fine with Taylor as the backup CF - we need a hit first CF sooner than later … a lefty with a decent glove would be ideal 

Mullins fits the description, though the cost would obviously be quite high. Benintendi is another left-handed option, but he has seen very little time at CF over the course of his career. 

[edfunderburk]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Mullins fits the description, though the cost would obviously be quite high. Benintendi is another left-handed option, but he has seen very little playing time at CF over the course of his career. 

I’d be willing to give up Mitchell & Small & Reetz (Biloxi C / LF) for Mullins 

[Brewcrew82]

Careful here Woody.