Article: Time is Running Out for Brewers' Cain

[Tim Muma]

Father Time appears to be taking its toll on Milwaukee Brewers' center fielder Lorenzo Cain. The 36-year-old veteran looks like a shell of his former self at the plate, and the club may have to make a difficult decision soon.

When Lorenzo Cain signed a five-year, $80 million contract before the 2018 season, most understood Milwaukee was paying for the first two or three years of production. The hope was that Cain's final couple of seasons on the deal would be tolerable. Last year, Cain posted a slightly below-average 95 OPS+ with a .257/.329/.401 slash line and was more than acceptable. His continued quality defense boosted his Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR) to 2.2 - solid for a starter.

Unfortunately for the Brewers, Cain's 2022 season has been a disaster at the plate. Aside from the 35 OPS+ (100 is league average) and ugly .182/.247/.216 slash, his Statcast rankings show zero signs of bad luck or a bounceback.



Blue equals poor, and Cain's blues are both literal and theoretical. He currently sits in the third percentile in Expected Slugging (xSLG) and Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA). These indicate Cain would be forecasted (essentially) to be worse than 97 percent of MLB players in slugging percentage (SLG) and weighted on-base average (wOBA). Entering play Friday, Cain's .216 SLG ranked 229th out of 231 players (minimum 90 plate appearances), while his .217 wOBA was 227th.  

Perhaps the two most discouraging signs are Cain's lack of contact and the inability to hit the ball with his barrel. Across his 97 PA, Cain's percentage of contact of balls in the strike zone (Z-Contact%) is 85.5%. If he stays at that rate, it would be the worst of his career by three percent and 4.7% under his career mark.

When he has made contact, Cain has yet to hit the barrel of the bat. Cain has zero barrels on 66 batted balls, making it extremely difficult to hit the ball well and find base hits. Last year he found nine barrels out of 210 batted balls, which was in line with his career percentage of 4.3%.

Sure, he could get hot and up his numbers, but there is nothing to foreshadow anything significant. At this point, you hate to say it, Cain has become 2021 Jackie Bradley Jr. in 2022. Cain's saving grace is that he still navigates the outfield exceptionally well and holds value roaming center. He is tied for the MLB lead in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) among all center fielders and ranks in the 92nd percentile in Outs Above Average. Whatever he has seemingly lost at the dish has not escaped him in the field.

That is where the tough decisions come into play. Tyrone Taylor is the only current Brewers outfielder ready to play the position and handle it well enough. However, he isn't hitting with much consistency either (.214/.267/.333 with a 72 OPS+) and is a better fit defensively for a corner spot. He will likely see more frequent time in center field before anything drastic happens. However, if Milwaukee tries to bring someone in to take those at-bats, do they keep Cain on the active roster as a defensive replacement?

The problem is that Taylor is out of minor league options, and keeping six outfielders on the 26-man roster will not happen. Perhaps Cain could be put in the IL with a "leg injury" until he is needed. Would he go for that? Would he force the Brewers' hand into releasing him? If the Brewers wait until closer to the deadline, Cain could spend a month on the IL before rosters expand to 28 players in September.

There isn't an easy answer for the current conundrum. Since the Brewers are winning games and holding down first place in the NL Central, there likely isn't urgency on the part of the club. However, they should be looking at their options now so they can strike a deal when their patience runs out on Cain's bat. It will be a sad day to move on from Cain, but barring a semi-miraculous recovery, the 2022 Brewers can't afford to have an offensive black hole in center field.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

But hey, at least his... sprint speed... is still good...

I'll show myself to the door, thanks.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But hey, at least his... sprint speed... is still good...

I'll show myself to the door, thanks.

[monty57]

We're about 1/4 of the way into the season. I think it's time for Taylor to get the starting spot, with Cain coming in late as a defensive replacement. That can give management some time to see what Taylor can do so they'll know if they need to make a mid-season trade for a CF starter.

Cain is in the "sunk cost" category now, so his salary shouldn't be a consideration any longer. He'll be paid no matter what, and there's no way he's coming back next year, so the team just needs to do what's best for the team. 

[monty57]

We're about 1/4 of the way into the season. I think it's time for Taylor to get the starting spot, with Cain coming in late as a defensive replacement. That can give management some time to see what Taylor can do so they'll know if they need to make a mid-season trade for a CF starter.

Cain is in the "sunk cost" category now, so his salary shouldn't be a consideration any longer. He'll be paid no matter what, and there's no way he's coming back next year, so the team just needs to do what's best for the team. 

[rickh150]

I expect a real or convenient injury to Cain soon. 

[rickh150]

I expect a real or convenient injury to Cain soon. 

[Robocaller]

You can't make a change unless you have someone to replace him. If Taylor isn't it, you have to look elsewhere, and there aren't a whole lot of CF in the majors who might be available at a reasonable cost and who are actually performing well. A rental (or with one more year of control) would be ideal since we have guys in the minors who should be promoted no later than the end of next season.
The guys in the minors are either AAAA guys (who could potentially stay hot in the majors for a while) or Wiemer, who would be playing outside his ideal position. But Wiemer will force his way onto the brewers sooner rather than later.
 

[Robocaller]

You can't make a change unless you have someone to replace him. If Taylor isn't it, you have to look elsewhere, and there aren't a whole lot of CF in the majors who might be available at a reasonable cost and who are actually performing well. A rental (or with one more year of control) would be ideal since we have guys in the minors who should be promoted no later than the end of next season.
The guys in the minors are either AAAA guys (who could potentially stay hot in the majors for a while) or Wiemer, who would be playing outside his ideal position. But Wiemer will force his way onto the brewers sooner rather than later.
 

[clancyphile]

3 hours ago, Robocaller said:

You can't make a change unless you have someone to replace him. If Taylor isn't it, you have to look elsewhere, and there aren't a whole lot of CF in the majors who might be available at a reasonable cost and who are actually performing well. A rental (or with one more year of control) would be ideal since we have guys in the minors who should be promoted no later than the end of next season.
The guys in the minors are either AAAA guys (who could potentially stay hot in the majors for a while) or Wiemer, who would be playing outside his ideal position. But Wiemer will force his way onto the brewers sooner rather than later.
 

Yelich has played some center field in the majors, albeit mostly during his time with the Marlins. McCutchen also has significant time in center over his career. And Taylor is another option.

Do they bring Cain's defense? No, but each of them boost the OPS from the position by 150-300 points.

So, they can let Cain go, and use Hirua to pick up DH ABs opened up by having Yelich and McCutchen, or it could open up LF for Weimer.

Of course, if Garrett Mitchell wasn't scuffling, we'd have an easier solution.

[clancyphile]

3 hours ago, Robocaller said:

You can't make a change unless you have someone to replace him. If Taylor isn't it, you have to look elsewhere, and there aren't a whole lot of CF in the majors who might be available at a reasonable cost and who are actually performing well. A rental (or with one more year of control) would be ideal since we have guys in the minors who should be promoted no later than the end of next season.
The guys in the minors are either AAAA guys (who could potentially stay hot in the majors for a while) or Wiemer, who would be playing outside his ideal position. But Wiemer will force his way onto the brewers sooner rather than later.
 

Yelich has played some center field in the majors, albeit mostly during his time with the Marlins. McCutchen also has significant time in center over his career. And Taylor is another option.

Do they bring Cain's defense? No, but each of them boost the OPS from the position by 150-300 points.

So, they can let Cain go, and use Hirua to pick up DH ABs opened up by having Yelich and McCutchen, or it could open up LF for Weimer.

Of course, if Garrett Mitchell wasn't scuffling, we'd have an easier solution.

[Robocaller]

Yelich and McCutchen (at this point) should never be more than emergency CF.

[Robocaller]

Yelich and McCutchen (at this point) should never be more than emergency CF.

[monty57]

On 5/21/2022 at 4:04 AM, Robocaller said:

You can't make a change unless you have someone to replace him. If Taylor isn't it, you have to look elsewhere, and there aren't a whole lot of CF in the majors who might be available at a reasonable cost and who are actually performing well. A rental (or with one more year of control) would be ideal since we have guys in the minors who should be promoted no later than the end of next season.
The guys in the minors are either AAAA guys (who could potentially stay hot in the majors for a while) or Wiemer, who would be playing outside his ideal position. But Wiemer will force his way onto the brewers sooner rather than later.
 

If Taylor doesn't produce, then a rental seems the most likely, but then I remember that this move will be made by the same guy who got us Adames and Tellez. If there is a guy out there who is a good player, but for some reason doesn't have a clear shot at a starting job, Stearns will find him.

[monty57]

On 5/21/2022 at 4:04 AM, Robocaller said:

You can't make a change unless you have someone to replace him. If Taylor isn't it, you have to look elsewhere, and there aren't a whole lot of CF in the majors who might be available at a reasonable cost and who are actually performing well. A rental (or with one more year of control) would be ideal since we have guys in the minors who should be promoted no later than the end of next season.
The guys in the minors are either AAAA guys (who could potentially stay hot in the majors for a while) or Wiemer, who would be playing outside his ideal position. But Wiemer will force his way onto the brewers sooner rather than later.
 

If Taylor doesn't produce, then a rental seems the most likely, but then I remember that this move will be made by the same guy who got us Adames and Tellez. If there is a guy out there who is a good player, but for some reason doesn't have a clear shot at a starting job, Stearns will find him.

[John Bonnes]

On 5/23/2022 at 8:34 AM, monty57 said:

If Taylor doesn't produce, then a rental seems the most likely, but then I remember that this move will be made by the same guy who got us Adames and Tellez. If there is a guy out there who is a good player, but for some reason doesn't have a clear shot at a starting job, Stearns will find him.

I'll throw out two names that fit that profile at least a little: Gilberto Celestino and (potentially) Nick Gordon, both of whom are on the Twins.

• There is no way Celestino is as good as he looks right now, but he looks incredible. Even with perceived regression, he looks like he could be a regular center fielder, he's 23, team-controlled for six more years, and of course blocked by Buxton. 
• It isn't clear Nick Gordon will ever hit well enough to be a MLB regular, but if he does it will likely be as a centerfielder. His defense there has looked (by eye only) awfully good, and with a decent BA and his speed, he could be an offensive asset for that position. 

Gordon doesn't look like a great fit for a contending team, but he does do one important thing: he make the Twins more willing to trade Celestino, which they might hesitate to do give Buxton's injury history.