Article: Unlucky Woodruff Pitching Better Than You Think

[Tim Muma]

Brandon Woodruff owns a 6.16 ERA and has allowed a .925 OPS to hitters over his last four starts. It might be fair to wonder if it's time to worry about the Milwaukee Brewers' right-hander. Then again, maybe not.

Indeed, Brandon Woodruff has not looked like an ace with a 5.35 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through his first seven starts in 2022. While the Brewers are 4-2 in Woodruff's starts, his outings have been inconsistent, which can be frustrating. In four of his starts, Woodruff allowed four earned runs in 21 2/3 innings (1.66 ERA). Two of those came in mid-April when he gave up no runs over 11 frames. However, his other three starts have yielded 16 earned runs in 12 innings (12.00 ERA). Woodruff himself was at a loss for his lack of consistency to open the season.
 

“I don’t quite have the answers.” Our story about Brandon Woodruff’s rough start against the Reds includes an extended video with his postgame introspection. Worth a watch if you haven’t already. https://t.co/Qx7H08PquE

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) May 10, 2022

While ERA offers some helpful information, it isn't everything. Taking a look at a pitcher's FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) shows more about the pitcher himself. Woodruff's FIP is 3.72, suggesting a sizable amount of bad luck. The difference between his ERA (5.35) and FIP (3.72) is 1.62. The greater the difference, the more bad luck, in theory. Woodruff's 1.62 ERA minus FIP (E-F) is sixth-highest among pitchers with at least 30 innings. 

Further evidence of Woodruff's tough luck lies in his opponents' Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP). The league average BABIP in 2022 is .282, while Woodruff's currently sits at .333. That is also 45 points higher than his career BABIP (.288). One factor might be the increase in infield hits he has allowed, which is typically fluky. His Infield Hit Percentage (IFH%) against him was 16.7% this year, while his career mark is 5.8%.
This could be related to a few rough defensive stretches for the Brewers. Miscues and errors don't always impact the ERA, but they affect a hurler's performance and output throughout a game - and sometimes multiple outings. These areas typically level out over time.

The one recent concern worth watching is the home runs allowed. Woodruff has given up at least one homer in each of his last three starts (five overall). That has pushed his Home Runs per Nine Innings (HR/9) to 1.3 thus far, which would be the highest of his career. The dingers stem from a career-high fly ball percentage (43.3%). Part of the issue has been leaving his secondary pitches up in the zone, like this changeup to Jorge Soler on Sunday.
 

 

SOLER TO THE BULLPEN! A HOME RUN PUTS THE MARLINS UP 3-1!
106.5 MPH
43 DEG LA!!!!
356 FT pic.twitter.com/f59b3UvEjh

— Noah Berger?? (@Trainboy100) May 15, 2022

Execution needs to be better, but this could be a small sample result considering Woodruff has a 33.4% fly ball rate. Woodruff's performance will warrant more concern if the percentage doesn't drop some over the next handful of starts.

When you watch Woodruff on the mound, one other thing to pay attention to is how often hitters are attacking pitches in the zone. Opponents are swinging more frequently at would-be strikes 72.2% of the time, more than two percent higher than in the previous two seasons. This has led to Woodruff getting the fewest percentage of called strikes in his career. These could call for him to rethink his strategy and pitch mix as hitters get more aggressive.

Despite all of this - and some fretting by fans - as a veteran pitcher with a reliable history of success, patience has been earned. From 2018-2021, Woodruff has a 3.06 ERA with a 3.05 FIP and a 1.04 WHIP across 417 innings. A small amount of decline could happen this season, but the Milwaukee Brewers have no reason to believe a drastic dropoff is coming from Woodruff.

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