2022 NL Central Discussion

[djoctagone]

five reds players are not vaccinated against covid-19 and were placed on the restricted list:

albert almora, jr.

ross detwiler

brandon drury

jason kuhnel

tyler mahle

these players will be forfeiting major league pay and service time while they are on the restricted list.

canada is indeed standing on guard for thee.

 

[SomewhereInTime]

The St. Louis Cardinals used a position player to pitch with a lead in the 9th inning.  I've never seen a team do that on the winning side (except for very deep into extra innings with no other options left).  Honestly, one of the last organizations I would expect to pull something that disrespectful to the game.

[stoutdude04]

5 hours ago, SomewhereInTime said:

The St. Louis Cardinals used a position player to pitch with a lead in the 9th inning.  I've never seen a team do that on the winning side (except for very deep into extra innings with no other options left).  Honestly, one of the last organizations I would expect to pull something that disrespectful to the game.

They've done it twice in 2 weeks.

[SomewhereInTime]

3 hours ago, stoutdude04 said:

They've done it twice in 2 weeks.

Yeah I saw that after I made the post.  Even more shocking.  From the once proud franchise and arbiter of the unwritten rules of baseball.

[wallus]

Chris Carpenter must be rolling over in his grave.

[KeithStone53151]

I was looking at the standings. One fairly concerning stat I found, the Brewers have played 42 games...and we are 2-4 against teams with a record greater than 500. 0-1 against each of the padres/giants and 2-2 against the cardinals. Point being, we've played a shockingly soft schedule to date. This Padres series is actually the beginning of our schedule getting significantly more difficult. We have all our games against the Mets/Dodgers, most against Padres/Giants, all 4 good AL east teams, twins, and we've only played the cardinals once while we've played our other bad divisional opponents at least twice.

[brewers888]

8 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I was looking at the standings. One fairly concerning stat I found, the Brewers have played 42 games...and we are 2-4 against teams with a record greater than 500. 0-1 against each of the padres/giants and 2-2 against the cardinals. Point being, we've played a shockingly soft schedule to date. This Padres series is actually the beginning of our schedule getting significantly more difficult. We have all our games against the Mets/Dodgers, most against Padres/Giants, all 4 good AL east teams, twins, and we've only played the cardinals once while we've played our other bad divisional opponents at least twice.

When I pointed this out I was roundly criticized by @Brewcrew82but the truth is we are going to find out a lot about this team in the next month or so. Kudos to the team for taking care of business against the dregs of the league but we will know a lot more about just how good this team is when we see how they do against the good teams in the league.

[KeithStone53151]

3 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

When I pointed this out I was roundly criticized by @Brewcrew82but the truth is we are going to find out a lot about this team in the next month or so. Kudos to the team for taking care of business against the dregs of the league but we will know a lot more about just how good this team is when we see how they do against the good teams in the league.

I generally agree with your point, but just because we haven't played many teams over 500 doesn't mean it's been an entire cakewalk. We split 6 games against a good braves team that will most likely claw back into the race. we took 2 of 3 from both philly and miami...both teams are capable of ending the season over 500. It certainly will be interesting if we can still win more series than we lose against clear contenders like SD/SF/LA/etc that all are at least a little bit better than Phil/miami.

[brewers888]

1 minute ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I generally agree with your point, but just because we haven't played many teams over 500 doesn't mean it's been an entire cakewalk. We split 6 games against a good braves team that will most likely claw back into the race. we took 2 of 3 from both philly and miami...both teams are capable of ending the season over 500. It certainly will be interesting if we can still win more series than we lose against clear contenders like SD/SF/LA/etc that all are at least a little bit better than Phil/miami.

This is a good team but its fair to ask how we stack up against the other likely playoff teams in the league and we will have a pretty good idea of that over the next month or so. 

[stoutdude04]

15 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

This is a good team but its fair to ask how we stack up against the other likely playoff teams in the league and we will have a pretty good idea of that over the next month or so. 

And the next month or so may tell us nothing - The Brewers are going through injuries and other family issues.  They may be terrible the next month...or they may be good. 

I think they probably stack up against the other teams by height. I think.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, brewers888 said:

When I pointed this out I was roundly criticized by @Brewcrew82but the truth is we are going to find out a lot about this team in the next month or so. Kudos to the team for taking care of business against the dregs of the league but we will know a lot more about just how good this team is when we see how they do against the good teams in the league.

If you go back to Sunday's in-game thread, you'll notice that I said your take "was not unreasonable", though I personally (and many others) have already accepted that this is a really good team. Rather, my criticism was strictly about your comical propensity to initiate the "are we a good team" conversation literally every time we fall behind in or lose a game. 

[Jopal78]

Tough ten days or so for the Brewers. The Cardinals actually have a better run differential than the Brewers (+54 vs. +26) right now. They have also scored more runs than Milwaukee (269 vs. 247), and their pitching staff has given up fewer runs (215 vs. 221). 

In the next 10 days the Cardinals have 7 games against the Reds and Pirates (and 3 against Tampa). The Brewers should get healthy but are going to get Aaron Nola (3.90 era and 32Ks in 25 1/3 innings in last 5 games vs. Milwaukee) in one game with the Phillies; then hopefully they'll get their mojo working against the Nationals, before finishing up their next ten games with 3 against the Mets. 

At least as of June 6th, it looks like the Brewers will be in a knock-down drag out fight for the division title. 

[stoutdude04]

Everyone knows the issues with this team, but they just had a brutal 18 game stretch where they went 9-9 and were missing 4 or 5 starters and Woody and Peralta. They are still in fine position, but it surely looks like the Cardinals are going to be better than preseason projections.

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, stoutdude04 said:

Everyone knows the issues with this team, but they just had a brutal 18 game stretch where they went 9-9 and were missing 4 or 5 starters and Woody and Peralta. They are still in fine position, but it surely looks like the Cardinals are going to be better than preseason projections.

I was going to raise something about the Cardinals today. The Brewers issues have been fully discussed, and it remains to be seen how much of the problem with the Brewers offense is the injuries and how much is just not having enough good hitters and too many black holes in the lineup. I might put something about that in the offense thread.

I think the Cardinals are clearly going to be better than the preseason projections. They have had their own issues with injuries and lack of performance, and still have scored more runs per game and allowed fewer runs per game than the Brewers while compiling a virtually identical record. They have something important the Brewers don't have in proven star caliber hitters (Goldschmidt and Arenado).  Edman is also a strong producer who can set the table for the big hitters.

They didn't waste time reaching down to the minors to plug in Yepez, Donovan, and Gorman. If those guys keep producing like they have so far that offense is going to be tough to handle. Their starting pitching may not be as strong as the Brewers, but they do OK with what they have along with some strong arms in the bullpen who can handle multiple innings. Their defense also helps their pitchers more than the Brewers defense does

Flaherty is starting a minor league rehab and if he can come back at something close to his usual form that will be a big boost to their rotation. They also can look forward to O'Neill coming back from injury and producing at something like last year's pace.

IMHO, even if the Brewers can get straightened out and challenge 90 wins I'm not seeing the kind of runaway division race they had last season.

 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

I was going to raise something about the Cardinals today. The Brewers issues have been fully discussed, and it remains to be seen how much of the problem with the Brewers offense is the injuries and how much is just not having enough good hitters and too many black holes in the lineup. I might put something about that in the offense thread.

I think the Cardinals are clearly going to be better than the preseason projections. They have had their own issues with injuries and lack of performance, and still have scored more runs per game and allowed fewer runs per game than the Brewers while compiling a virtually identical record. They have something important the Brewers don't have in proven star caliber hitters (Goldschmidt and Arenado).  Edman is also a strong producer who can set the table for the big hitters.

They didn't waste time reaching down to the minors to plug in Yepez, Donovan, and Gorman. If those guys keep producing like they have so far that offense is going to be tough to handle. Their starting pitching may not be as strong as the Brewers, but they do OK with what they have along with some strong arms in the bullpen who can handle multiple innings. Their defense also helps their pitchers more than the Brewers defense does

Flaherty is starting a minor league rehab and if he can come back at something close to his usual form that will be a big boost to their rotation. They also can look forward to O'Neill coming back from injury and producing at something like last year's pace.

IMHO, even if the Brewers can get straightened out and challenge 90 wins I'm not seeing the kind of runaway division race they had last season.

 

It's looking like a closer division race than last year, however, two of your assumptions in here may not be fair.

One, I'm not sure they can expect O'Neill to come back and produce at last year's pace. Before he went on the IL last month, he was among the worst position players in baseball at a -0.6 WAR. Even his defense was below his Gold Glove level from last year. He is a guy who has always had a huge hole in his bat, consistently ranking among the league leaders in K% and Whiff%. He had a great season last year for sure, mainly because he was able to hit the ball extremely hard when he did make contact, but the same warning signs were still there as he ranked in the 4th percentile in both K% and Whiff% (i.e., Keston Hiura territory). Fast forward to this season, and his hard hit rate has completely dovetailed to the point where he is no longer able to offset his huge swing and miss propensities. So, unless he suddenly starts making contact more consistently, it is highly unlikely that he will ever be able to repeat or come close to the season he had last year.

Two, while you're correct in that Gorman, Donovan, and Yepez have come up and provided them with a big boost on the offensive end to help make up for the injuries/disappointments in O'Neill, Carlson, DeJong, and Sosa, I'm not sure if they'll be able to count on them to continue to produce at the level they currently are. None of these guys were "can't miss prospects" like a Vlad Jr., Franco, or Julio Rodriguez. Gorman was the only one who ever made a top 100 prospect list, and like O'Neill, he comes with huge questions in terms of his ability to make contact. So, while Gorman currently has a .950 OPS, the more at-bats he gets this season we can expect that to decline significantly due to his 34.6 K% and pitchers adjusting how they pitch to him. As for Yepez and Donovan, who both never sniffed top 100 prospect status, Yepez's production has already begun to steadily decline after a hot start upon his initial call-up, and while Donovan's K/BB ratios are promising and he possesses an above-average hit tool, his .855 OPS is unsustainable due to his lack of power and he has below-average tools everywhere else. Now, I'm not questioning that these guys could all wind up becoming good major league players (and perhaps even something more in Gorman's case), however, I think we can say with near-certainty that they won't continue to combine for an .870 OPS over the remainder of the season. 

[BruisedCrew]

I’m not assuming that those Cardinals are going to continue at an .870 OPS pace, but when I look at how even some of the best Brewers have been hitting for the last month, they still look pretty good.

I suspect that people who are looking for Turang and Dahl to provide a spark to the Brewers offense that was sputtering even before the run of injuries would be pretty excited to add some of these guys to the Brewers lineup. 

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I’m not expecting those Cardinals to continue at an .870 OPS pace, but when I look at how even the best Brewers have been hitting for the last month, they still look pretty good.

I suspect that people who are looking for Turang and Dahl to provide a spark to the Brewers offense that was sputtering even before the run of injuries would be pretty excited to add some of these guys to the Brewers lineup. 

Yes, but how will the Cardinals look when these guys are no longer hitting at an .870 OPS pace, as they currently are, but at a .770 OPS pace (which is actually pretty generous according to the projection systems)? In order for the Cardinals to keep winning as they have been, they will need that production to come from somewhere else. They don't have elite pitching we do (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Hader, Williams, etc.) to make up for it, so they will have to find it from their other hitters, probably in the form of O'Neill and Carlson once they return from their injuries. I already pointed out my reasons to you why O'Neill is unlikely to fill that void. 

[Brewcrew82]

Also, since you brought up Turang, it's worth noting that he's a better prospect than Donovan and Yepez. And I haven't jumped on "Turang train" for what I think he'll bring to the offense, though he would almost certainly present a big improvement over Cain, but for his 60-grade defense amid what has been an uneven start on that end for the Brewers' infield. I don't even think it's a 100% certainty that they're better options for the Cardinals over the remainder of season than David Dahl, who you also mention, is for the Brewers. At least Dahl has been an all-star in the major leagues and sustained an .870 OPS over the course of a season. 

[BruisedCrew]

You mention the Brewers “elite” pitching, but has it really been that elite? 

You should scratch Peralta off that list because you can’t count on him returning this season, much less returning at an elite level. Woodruff has not been elite so far either, so who knows what he will do once he comes back from his injury. 

I really think you’re applying a much more critical standard to the Cardinals than you are to the Brewers. When I look at how the Brewers hitters have performed since the hitting surge that ended with the 3 game sweep over the Reds in early May, it raises some real questions about what to expect from that offense going forward. Of course they will be better than they were with the lineup they had to field last weekend. But will it be good enough to get to 90-95 wins even with high quality pitching? To me that’s the big question. 

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

You mention the Brewers “elite” pitching, but has it really been that elite? 

You should scratch Peralta off that list because you can’t count on him returning this season, much less returning at an elite level. Woodruff has not been elite so far either, so who knows what he will do once he comes back from his injury. 

I really think you’re applying a much more critical standard to the Cardinals than you are to the Brewers. When I look at how the Brewers hitters have performed since the hitting surge that ended with the 3 game sweep over the Reds in early May, it raises some real questions about what to expect from that offense going forward. Of course they will be better than they were with the lineup they had to field last weekend. But will it be good enough to get to 90-95 wins even with high quality pitching? To me that’s the big question. 

Yes, the Brewers' pitching is elite, and there's no question about it. Even if you take what they did last year out of the equation, their 8.6 combined WAR, 3.41 FIP, and 3.432 xFIP are all second in the entire majors after the Yankees. And their 9.86 K/9 leads the majors by a significant degree. Conversely, the Cardinals are 25th, 24th, 23rd, and 26th in these four categories. 

I could also say that you're applying a much more critical standard to the Brewers than you are to the Cardinals, particularly when you assume that O'Neill and Flaherty will all return from injury and be all-star level players and that their three rookies will continue to outpace even the Brewers' best hitters, while Woodruff will defy three years of top 10 level pitching and Peralta won't even return this season despite Counsell saying that he will. 

[Brewcrew82]

18 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

You mention the Brewers “elite” pitching, but has it really been that elite? 

You should scratch Peralta off that list because you can’t count on him returning this season, much less returning at an elite level. Woodruff has not been elite so far either, so who knows what he will do once he comes back from his injury. 

I really think you’re applying a much more critical standard to the Cardinals than you are to the Brewers. When I look at how the Brewers hitters have performed since the hitting surge that ended with the 3 game sweep over the Reds in early May, it raises some real questions about what to expect from that offense going forward. Of course they will be better than they were with the lineup they had to field last weekend. But will it be good enough to get to 90-95 wins even with high quality pitching? To me that’s the big question. 

Also, there's two pretty good strands of evidence to suggest that this lineup is in fact good enough to get them to 90-95 wins. 1. Last season. 2: The projection models (538, Fangraphs, etc.). 

[Jopal78]

37 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Also, since you brought up Turang, it's worth noting that he's a better prospect than Donovan and Yepez. And I haven't jumped on "Turang train" for what I think he'll bring to the offense, though he would almost certainly present a big improvement over Cain, but for his defense amid what has been an uneven start on that end for the Brewers' infield. I don't even think it's a 100% certainty that they're better options for the Cardinals over the remainder of season than David Dahl, who you also mention, is for the Brewers. At least Dahl has been an all-star in the major leagues and sustained an .870 OPS over the course of a season. 

I don't know if Turang is a better prospect than Donovan or Yepez, nobody could say that. Those two in St. Louis have already had some success in the major leagues. Turang has a .696 OPS in AAA in nearly 400 at bats there. At 22 years old and with that offensive production, there isn't a reason to bring him to the major leagues. Let alone as a savior for an offensively challenged team. 

Same thing for David Dahl, he hasn't been a productive major league hitter in years, and isn't necessarily tearing the cover off the ball at AAA. Further, I'm  not so sure they would pass over Abraham Almonte and Jonathan Davis to bring up either Turang or Dahl. 

They probably are getting closer to making a decision on Lorenzo Cain, an MLB team cannot simply give regular at bats to a player with a sub .500 OPS. Then again, he's making a lot of money for them to pay him to sit at home, so I think they'll continue to be patient and hope he shows them something in the next couple of weeks.  

The Cardinals are where they are at because they have some red hot hitters (Goldschmidt is batting nearly .500 with runners in scoring position), but clearly they are a better club than they were given credit for at the beginning of the year and appear more balanced overall than the extreme pitching Brewers. 

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I don't know if Turang is a better prospect than Donovan or Yepez, nobody could say that. Those two in St. Louis have already had some success in the major leagues. Turang has a .696 OPS in AAA in nearly 400 at bats there. At 22 years old and with that offensive production, there isn't a reason to bring him to the major leagues. Let alone as a savior for an offensively challenged team. 

Same thing for David Dahl, he hasn't been a productive major league hitter in years, and isn't necessarily tearing the cover off the ball at AAA. Further, I'm  not so sure they would pass over Abraham Almonte and Jonathan Davis to bring up either Turang or Dahl. 

They probably are getting closer to making a decision on Lorenzo Cain, an MLB team cannot simply give regular at bats to a player with a sub .500 OPS. Then again, he's making a lot of money for them to pay him to sit at home, so I think they'll continue to be patient and hope he shows them something in the next couple of weeks.  

The Cardinals are where they are at because they have some red hot hitters, but clearly they are a better club than they were given credit for at the beginning of the year and appear more balanced overall than the extreme pitching Brewers. 

The experts at places like Baseball America say that Turang is a better prospect than Donovan or Yepez. He's currently ranked 82nd in all of baseball. And there's more to the game than just hitting and OPS. For instance, Donovan has a 55 hit tool, but is below 50 (below average) in literally every other phase of the game. Meanwhile, Turang has above average tools everywhere except for power.

Nowhere on this site have I presented Turang as a savior for this offense. All I've said is that I would like Turang on the roster because he would provide an upgrade over Cain at the plate and has more future potential on offense than Reyes and would also help stabilize some of the subpar defense we've gotten from the infield. 

I'm not as high on Dahl, but you have to acknowledge that he's had more sustained production at the major league level than Donovan or Yepez, which gets at my broader point that it would be foolish to expect them to continue to produce at the level they currently are for the remainder of the season. To keep winning as they have been, the Cardinals will most likely have to get that production from somewhere else on their roster. 

[BruisedCrew]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yes, the Brewers' pitching is elite, and there's no question about it. Even if you take what they did last year out of the equation, their 8.6 combined WAR, 3.41 FIP, and 3.432 xFIP are all second in the entire majors after the Yankees. And their 9.86 K/9 leads the majors by a significant degree. Conversely, the Cardinals are 25th, 24th, 23rd, and 26th in these four categories. 

I could also say that you're applying a much more critical standard to the Brewers than you are to the Cardinals, particularly when you assume that O'Neill and Flaherty will all return from injury and be all-star level players and that their three rookies will continue to outpace even the Brewers' best hitters, while Woodruff will defy three years of top 10 level pitching and Peralta won't even return this season despite Counsell saying that he will. 

I guess you'd have to define "elite". You're picking out a couple of statistics where the Brewers rate high. I focus more on runs allowed than how many strikeouts the pitchers get. To the extent that runs allowed is affected by fielding, so be it. I don't think there's much question that the Cardinals fielding is better than the Brewers, and that helps their pitching. But, at this point in the season the Brewers and Cardinals are virtually even in runs allowed per game. Whether they're preventing runs with pitching or fielding is immaterial to me.

On a couple of your other points:

1. I am not "assuming" that O'Neill and Flaherty are going to return and play at an All Star level. You're adding that word. But, they are players who could provide positive contributions.

2. I also am not "assuming" that the Cardinal rookies will continue to outpace the best Brewers hitters. If you want to disagree with me, please react to what I actually said, not your twisting of it. I referred to how the Brewers hitters have performed individually the last month. If you haven't  done that, maybe you should. It would illustrate why the Brewers offensive problems have come from more than injuries.

3. I am not "assuming" that Woodruff will be as mediocre the rest of the season as he has been so far. But it wouldn't be the first time that a pitcher with high expectations had an off season. I remember guys like Nola and Giolito last year.

4. On Peralta, I heard what Counsell said. When I hear that a pitcher will be out for a "significant amount of time" with no timeline for when he will be back, and that "we expect him back this year", my experience with this kind of "manager speak" is that the player may or may not be back this season but they aren't going to rule it out yet. So, while I'm not "assuming" that Peralta will not pitch again this season, I'm not going to be surprised if he doesn't. In its most optimistic presentation, Peralta will at some point begin soft tossing, then throwing a little farther, then throwing a few pitches off a mound, then pitching to hitters, then going on rehab for a few starts, and then maybe returning to the big club. If there are no setbacks at all that process will take a few months when it starts, and we haven't heard anything about it. What the Brewers said about Peralta is very similar to what the Mets said about deGrom last June. Keep in mind that this is the same organization that wasn't sure Adames would need to go on the IL when he first got hurt and now he's been out for 3 weeks. I'm sure they will be very cautious with Peralta.

[BruisedCrew]

26 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Also, there's two pretty good strands of evidence to suggest that this lineup is in fact good enough to get them to 90-95 wins. 1. Last season. 2: The projection models (538, Fangraphs, etc.). 

Last season is last season.

I look at the projection models for entertainment, but I don't treat them as true probabilities as many others do. If they were that accurate this early in the season the Mets and Padres would have been fighting it out in the playoffs last year and the Braves would have been sitting home.