keston hiura recalled from class aaa nashville

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, timpep said:

If the Brewers paid everyone 8.5 mil they would have their highest payroll ever by a pretty big margin. It's not exactly chump change.

That's not how the system works, though, as there's things like pre-arbitration and arbitration. The system is that for a free agent of McCutchen's experience and production, 8.5 mil for 1 year is right around market value, maybe a little higher. Either way, McCutchen is not one of our problems right now, so I don't quite get why  @brewers888 decided to highlight him in the context of Hiura.

 

10 minutes ago, timpep said:

Not at hot as Keston...

Keston was absolutely horrendous in June. In July, he's been hot, but that's in a lot fewer at-bats than McCutchen. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

It's getting comical how this is made by some to be a Hiura vs McCutchen argument. They aren't competing for the same roster spot. This more than anything is a byproduct of having to have Davis on the roster (due to the loss of Taylor & Cain being released), combined with having to have three catchers (unless you just want to release one w/o trying to get something in return, which in our position would be irresponsible). And if it WERE between the two, I feel the choice they made is the correct one, especially when you factor in the glove.

[brewers888]

20 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Fair enough. But I know you realize and won’t admit it, releasing Severino would cost them over a million dollars, not to mention he is a player they liked enough over the winter to sign in the first place.
 

Besides a nice spring training he hasn’t played much due to the suspension, and a third catchers could be a useful commodity at the deadline in a couple weeks. Whereas Hiura could be optioned at no cost.

Severino can't even play in the playoffs so he has no value. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

11 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 Either way, McCutchen is not one of our problems right now, so I don't quite get why  @brewers888 decided to highlight him in the context of Hiura.

 

 

Yahtzee.

[brewers888]

I brought up McCutchen because he has been the primary DH and the biggest reason why Hiura wasn't getting enough at bats and why he was sent down despite being the most productive hitter on the team this season. 

[timpep]

I do understand the reasoning behind the move. As a fan and a person who believes in meritocracy, it still makes me upset that a kid who's actually putting up numbers gets the shaft while we carry 3 catchers, one fresh off a PED suspension(yes I know, it got explained away). I think it's a crappy message to young kids and is just inherently unfair. 

I don't care to debate home run% or k rate. The fact is he's produced results and gets no respect from half the fan base or from team management. And it just sits poorly with me. 

And that's all I have to say about that.

[NBBrewFan]

1 hour ago, brewers888 said:

I brought up McCutchen because he has been the primary DH and the biggest reason why Hiura wasn't getting enough at bats and why he was sent down despite being the most productive hitter on the team this season. 

You may need to add a diagram to your post because it's just not getting through.  It's amazing the gymnastics that some will go through regarding McCutcheon.  Has he been better than his abysmal start to the season? Sure, but in over 300 PA he's still negative fWAR.  Maybe he get's to 1 by the end of the year, he surely will be in the lineup every day so maybe he'll make it up in volume...  Go back to bashing Hiura while carrying 3 catchers, 1 of whom missed half the season because he's stupid and won't be available in the playoffs. 

[trwi7]

2 hours ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

The Brewers roster will almost always be at least half pre-arby guys and pre FA guys

Way to totally miss the point.  You can't say $8,5 million is chump change when a 25 man roster of guys making $8.5 million is going to result in a payroll well over $200 million, something we have never come close to approaching.  It might be chump change for the Dodgers or Mets or Yankees but it's not for us.

[Brewcrew82]

46 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

You may need to add a diagram to your post because it's just not getting through.  It's amazing the gymnastics that some will go through regarding McCutcheon.  Has he been better than his abysmal start to the season? Sure, but in over 300 PA he's still negative fWAR.  Maybe he get's to 1 by the end of the year, he surely will be in the lineup every day so maybe he'll make it up in volume...  Go back to bashing Hiura while carrying 3 catchers, 1 of whom missed half the season because he's stupid and won't be available in the playoffs. 

Or maybe I have to draw a diagram for the people that continue to be so perplexed/angered as to why Hiura was sent down. As previously stated , it would’ve been Davis, but he can’t be sent down so long as Taylor remains on the IL. Severino was the other main candidate, but he is out of options and he hits LHP really well, whereas Hiura doesn’t. The three catcher thing almost certainly won’t continue in the long run. But they still need to see what they have in Severino and whether there is a team that wants to acquire him. Dumping him for nothing is not the smartest move right now for a small market team like the Brewers. Hiura will be back on the team in due time, but let’s quit acting like he’s the sure thing some people on here seem to think he is.
 

Also, I would add that calling Severino “stupid” is poor taste, especially when the guy was trying to start a family.

[Austin Tatious]

Hiura was one of the only ones, if not literally the only one, with an OPS over .800.   For all his warts, he’s a rare guy on the team with some juice in his bat.  He should be up here to play against right handed pitching. 

[Austin Tatious]

JSOnline has a baseball podcast called Microbrew (I think).  They had Keith Law on as a guest this week.  They discussed Yelich and Hiura's precipitous dropoffs.

Law says someone in the organization has tinkered with Hiura's approach.  He is trying to get more loft and power.  Law was very critical of it.  He says that it takes Hiura away from his strength, which is hitting for average and doubles as opposed to all or nothing.  

Regarding Yelich, he tried to figure out whether the knee injury robbed him of power in his lower body and he hasn't gotten back to what he once was.  But Law admitted he couldn't really figure it out.

[Jim French Stepstool]

22 minutes ago, Austin Tatious said:

 

Law says someone in the organization has tinkered with Hiura's approach.  He is trying to get more loft and power.  Law was very critical of it.  He says that it takes Hiura away from his strength, which is hitting for average and doubles as opposed to all or nothing.  

 

 That certainly sounds like something that someone in our organization would do. Sadly.

[monty57]

For those watching the draft, I think Stearns & Co made pretty clear how they feel about swing-and-miss guys. I've made the case why I thought Hiura deserved more PAs this year to see if he's found something, but I think the Brewers want to go in the direction of higher contact guys.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hiura shopped this trade deadline, and if they can't find a trade, possibly DFA'd after the season rather than sticking with him into his arby years.

[NBBrewFan]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

For those watching the draft, I think Stearns & Co made pretty clear how they feel about swing-and-miss guys. I've made the case why I thought Hiura deserved more PAs this year to see if he's found something, but I think the Brewers want to go in the direction of higher contact guys.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hiura shopped this trade deadline, and if they can't find a trade, possibly DFA'd after the season rather than sticking with him into his arby years.

All of those prospects are 3-5 years away from sniffing the majors.  The Brewers aren't making any decision about the MLB roster with regards to the current draftees. You don't throw away an asset when the replacement is 4 years away.

Hiura is outhitting McCutcheon, who's only on a 1 year deal.  They are going to be paying more for Burnes, Woodruff, Hader, etc and if they decide to continue with mediocre bats then Renfroe will cost more.  At this point they need cheap options.  So far Hiura fits the need and profile.  I think if he continues to put up a >750 OPS then he will likely be the top candidate for full-time DH in 2023, even if he drifts lower, there may not be a better option (cost-wise) on the open market, warts and all.

[monty57]

4 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

All of those prospects are 3-5 years away from sniffing the majors.  The Brewers aren't making any decision about the MLB roster with regards to the current draftees. You don't throw away an asset when the replacement is 4 years away.

Hiura is outhitting McCutcheon, who's only on a 1 year deal.  They are going to be paying more for Burnes, Woodruff, Hader, etc and if they decide to continue with mediocre bats then Renfroe will cost more.  At this point they need cheap options.  So far Hiura fits the need and profile.  I think if he continues to put up a >750 OPS then he will likely be the top candidate for full-time DH in 2023, even if he drifts lower, there may not be a better option (cost-wise) on the open market, warts and all.

I wasn’t saying the draftees would immediately have an impact, just that Brewers’ management seems to like guys with good plate vision who make good contact and rarely strike out. In other words, they’re looking for guys whose game is the polar opposite of Hiura. 

Read my prior posts, I want Hiura to get more PAs, but the same people who are drafting guys with good bat-to-ball skills, low K rates, and good defense are the ones who decide the make-up of the MLB roster. 

They’ll try to hold onto the three catchers because Narvaez is a FA next year but they have control over Severino and Caratini so they don’t want to lose them. They’ve let McCutchen play every day even when he was slumping terribly, so they’re going to continue to play him every day. Next year, they’ll replace Wong with Turang and use the savings to find another one-year vet to be their primary DH. 

I don’t see a reason to continue to worry myself over it. Even though Hiura has been good against RHP in a limited sample-set, the Brewers don’t like his style of play, so they’re not going to go out of their way to find a spot for him.

I expect they’ll make some moves in the near future, and that will probably end any chance Hiura has at cracking the roster, so it’s probably likely that he is included in one of the upcoming trades. 

[Lathund]

When looking at Keston's overall solid production, and the low amount of playing time, people tend to draw the conclusion that he should play more. But I tend to think that the reason his overall numbers are good is *because* he doesn't play much. I strongly suspect that the decision on when to play him or not is matchup-based. And that it goes beyond just LHP or RHP. They play him vs starters they think he matches up well against, and not all righties or lefties are created equal. For instance, a RHP who primarily throws a 4-seamer and a 12-6 curveball from a high, over the top, arm slot, wouldn't usually have much in the way of platoon splits. Whereas a sinker/slider sidearmer would, like an Alex Claudio for example. 

Now I've not looked into which pitcher types he tends to start against. But I think that it's pretty obvious that there are pitches, and pitchers, who can exploit Keston's swing-and-miss tendencies more than others. I very, very much doubt that Counsell is either unable to look at vs RHP/LHP splits, or that he's picking out of stubbornness, or any of the other dumb takes I've seen on this.

As for sending him down, that has been covered pretty well already. He is optioned, and can be recalled. Severino or Cutch can't be. Davis is the only CF on the roster. It's unfortunate for him, but a very logical decision. If they also didn't see favorable matchups for him, combined with the all-star break, it makes even more sense. 

But besides all that, and I say this as someone who thinks Keston has potential still, he is sporting the highest strikeout rate in MLB (100 PA min), has the lowest contact %, relies on the highest BABIP (70 points above his own career average), the highest HR/FB rate (36%, 13% above his already high career average). And this with a hard hit % that's only the 103rd highest. And this is WITH him being used selectively. Take some time to grasp just how extreme those numbers are. There are outliers, then there are extreme outliers, and then there is Keston Hiura. The outrage at optioning (Optioning, not releasing or trading) a player with those numbers is rather disproportionate. He'll be back soon enough, and with the all-star break and his sporadic usage he'll only have actually missed a handful of games. 

[NBBrewFan]

12 hours ago, monty57 said:

Read my prior posts, I want Hiura to get more PAs, but the same people who are drafting guys with good bat-to-ball skills, low K rates, and good defense are the ones who decide the make-up of the MLB roster. 

And if there were OPTIONS he would likely have 2 strikes on him.  My issue is that they aren't simply going to throw him away because they are drafting contact players and he's not a contact player (he was a lot more of a contact player until someone on the Brewers thought EVERY player should be swinging for the fences) because they don't have other options. Will they trade him? They could, but I highly doubt he has enough value on the trade market to even make it worth it.  And yes I am arguing he should be playing, but has minimal value.  That says a lot more about what I think about the rest of the lineup.  Other than Adames I don't think any other team would put any substantial value on our hitters:

Yelich - nobody will take on that albatross of a contract unless the Brewers pay a significant amount of the remainder and they won't do that.

Taylor - the Brewers have killed most of his value by continually passing on him to pay for other talent to play in the outfield. And maybe he just isn't valuable as an every day player.

Renfroe - 3 other teams were happy to move on from him including the Red Sox who were going to DFA him so they decided to take on an albatross in JBJ instead.

Tellez - the Blue Jays pretty much gave him away and besides a few hot spells he's played like a player you can pick up off waivers.

Wong - the Cardinals are still laughing.  I can't wait to see him gone.

Adames - yes, our only real asset.

Urias - some team might want him as a 2B, but as a 3B with his offense & defense he's not a great asset. Minimal return, maybe another INF who hasn't been consistent.

Catchers - minimal value.

Pederson/Broussard - little value.

They'll need a 2B, CF, and DH next year. They aren't going to get significant help from FA (they just don't have the budget), They might go with Turang at 2B, but that will likely make the offense worse initially.  Would they trade other prospects with value?  The most value right now is in Lauer and Woodruff so they can weaken the rotation to fill those holes.  As has been the case for years, to fill holes they have to create others because they just don't have the assets to fill all the holes,

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

And if there were OPTIONS he would likely have 2 strikes on him.  My issue is that they aren't simply going to throw him away because they are drafting contact players and he's not a contact player (he was a lot more of a contact player until someone on the Brewers thought EVERY player should be swinging for the fences) because they don't have other options. Will they trade him? They could, but I highly doubt he has enough value on the trade market to even make it worth it.  And yes I am arguing he should be playing, but has minimal value.  That says a lot more about what I think about the rest of the lineup.  Other than Adames I don't think any other team would put any substantial value on our hitters:

Yelich - nobody will take on that albatross of a contract unless the Brewers pay a significant amount of the remainder and they won't do that.

Taylor - the Brewers have killed most of his value by continually passing on him to pay for other talent to play in the outfield. And maybe he just isn't valuable as an every day player.

Renfroe - 3 other teams were happy to move on from him including the Red Sox who were going to DFA him so they decided to take on an albatross in JBJ instead.

Tellez - the Blue Jays pretty much gave him away and besides a few hot spells he's played like a player you can pick up off waivers.

Wong - the Cardinals are still laughing.  I can't wait to see him gone.

Adames - yes, our only real asset.

Urias - some team might want him as a 2B, but as a 3B with his offense & defense he's not a great asset. Minimal return, maybe another INF who hasn't been consistent.

Catchers - minimal value.

Pederson/Broussard - little value.

They'll need a 2B, CF, and DH next year. They aren't going to get significant help from FA (they just don't have the budget), They might go with Turang at 2B, but that will likely make the offense worse initially.  Would they trade other prospects with value?  The most value right now is in Lauer and Woodruff so they can weaken the rotation to fill those holes.  As has been the case for years, to fill holes they have to create others because they just don't have the assets to fill all the holes,

This is probably on the more extreme end of the pessimistic perspective...

First, the notion that the Red Sox were going to DFA Renfroe, so they decided to dump him onto us for JBJ is patently false. He was their starting right fielder last year, hitting 31 home runs and OPSing over .800 on a team that went to the ALCS. Not even close to DFA material. The reason we were able to acquire him for JBJ is because we also gave them two top 30 prospects in return, including a promising power-hitting corner infielder in Binelas. Thus, Renfroe has legitimate value as a top 10 RF who is controllable through next season. 

Our catchers should likewise have more than "minimal" value considering we're top 10 in WAR from the position. We may not have that single superstar, but we're nevertheless doing very well at C, and I'm sure other contenders like the Cardinals (who are 30th in catcher WAR) would be quite willing to take them off our hands. 

Finally, Peterson and Brosseau (not Broussard) have an all-star caliber batting line between them, not to mention the fact that Peterson's defense at 3B has been up there with Arenado and Hayes. Granted, Peterson is a FA after the season which reduces his value, but it's still more than "little". 

So, while you personally may not like our lineup, there is certainly value to be found other than just Adames...

 

[Robocaller]

5 hours ago, Lathund said:

When looking at Keston's overall solid production, and the low amount of playing time, people tend to draw the conclusion that he should play more. But I tend to think that the reason his overall numbers are good is *because* he doesn't play much. I strongly suspect that the decision on when to play him or not is matchup-based. And that it goes beyond just LHP or RHP.

For a while CC was (almost?) exclusively starting him against LHP, whom he has done poorly against.  I see no support against the notion that he should have played more against RHP than LHP (other than hoping he could reverse his reverse-splits). If you take away 10 AB vs. LHP and give him 40 AB vs. RHP, his overall numbers would go up appreciably.

Keston's OPS vs RHP is 1.069, and more than .250 more than the next best batter Caratini (.806).

[NBBrewFan]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The reason we were able to acquire him for JBJ is because we also gave them two top 30 prospects in return, including a promising power-hitting corner infielder in Binelas. Thus, Renfroe has legitimate value as a top 10 RF who is controllable through next season. 

Our catchers should likewise have more than "minimal" value considering we're top 10 in WAR from the position. We may not have that single superstar, but we're nevertheless doing very well at C, and I'm sure other contenders like the Cardinals (who are 30th in catcher WAR) would be quite willing to take them off our hands. 

You seriously think that 2 top 30 prospects from one of the worst farm systems had the Red Sox foaming at the mouth?  Two top of the line Yugos were never worth the worst GM car on the market.  Same with Brewers prospects they are not valued as much as other teams simply because the farm system is crap (not my opinion, they have been ranked near the bottom by most reputable sites for years). Trying to equate Brewer top 30 prospects with any other systems top 30 prospects needs to take into the account the strength of the system.  Several years of 28/29/30 ranking isn't raising the value of out prospects. Doing the math and the Red Sox didn't value Renfroe much if at all.

Are we trading Narvaez? No he's walking into Free Agency and we will be left with Severino and Caratini.  Severino wasn't in high demand this offseason when the Brewers signed him and I doubt he's any more valuable today. Caratini is having a nice year.  Try selling that to a team as a definite breakout vs. a career year at 28. You might be able to get 2 relatively blah prospects for him which means little value.

[monty57]

NBBrewFan, I too would like to see Hiura (128 wRC+) get more PT, but how can you argue that he should get more PT based on this year's results while knocking Caratini (128 wRC+), Brosseau (134 wRC+) Peterson (112 wRC+), Renfroe (111 wRC+), and Tellez (106 wRC+)? I don't get the argument. 

We needed to get rid of Cain and his 31 wRC+ and we did, but while Taylor is an average player, he's been hurt and Davis hasn't been very good as a replacement. Unfortunately, Hiura isn't an answer for this. Hopefully Taylor gets and stays healthy, and I'd guess that Stearns is going to try to find help on the trade front in CF.

I've been negative on McCutchen, and think that the Brewers should have given some of his PAs to Hiura. They didn't, and with his recent hot streak McCutchen is going to get an even longer leash. I just hope that he plays well going forward, and that June wasn't the anomaly, as he's been back to below average in July. If he remains below average as the season goes on, maybe Hiura will get more starts at DH, but I don't think that'll happen quickly.

Tellez has been okay this year, but he has "reversed his reverse splits" this year, hitting better against RHP (114 wRC+) than LHP (92 wRC+). Hiura could see some PAs here, but Tellez certainly hasn't forced himself to the bench. 

So, I guess I agree with you that I'd like to see Hiura get PAs as a guy who has always been a good hitter that is finally showing some life. I don't agree with an "everyone else sucks" theory. We came into the season as a team that was heavy on pitching, with an average-ish offense. We've had some injuries, but currently have 8 guys with a wRC+ over 100, and 6 guys in the 90-100 range. That's pretty much what we expected, and of the six underperformers, only McCutchen (97) and Wong (95) play positions Hiura can play, and it's arguable to say that Hiura is capable of playing 2B well enough to justify putting him there on a regular basis. Plus, Wong has a 115 wRC+ vs RHP, and a 24 wRC+ vs LHP.

As much as I've argued against Hiura being used vs LHP, that's really where we could use someone, and it's why Brosseau has been extremely valuable to the team this year.

Before being sent down, Hiura was getting more starts vs RHP in kind of a "super utility" role (LF, 2B, 1B, DH). If he isn't dealt, I think he'll continue that role when/if he's called back up. He'll have a limited opportunity to continue to prove himself, but I still think that he'll have an uphill battle to try to retain a roster spot next year as he hits arby and starts to become more expensive. I hope he does it, and grabs hold of the DH role, as it would save the Brewers from having to sign "another McCutchen." I'd just say that the odds are against him at the current time.

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

You seriously think that 2 top 30 prospects from one of the worst farm systems had the Red Sox foaming at the mouth?  Two top of the line Yugos were never worth the worst GM car on the market.  Same with Brewers prospects they are not valued as much as other teams simply because the farm system is crap (not my opinion, they have been ranked near the bottom by most reputable sites for years). Trying to equate Brewer top 30 prospects with any other systems top 30 prospects needs to take into the account the strength of the system.  Several years of 28/29/30 ranking isn't raising the value of out prospects. Doing the math and the Red Sox didn't value Renfroe much if at all.

Are we trading Narvaez? No he's walking into Free Agency and we will be left with Severino and Caratini.  Severino wasn't in high demand this offseason when the Brewers signed him and I doubt he's any more valuable today. Caratini is having a nice year.  Try selling that to a team as a definite breakout vs. a career year at 28. You might be able to get 2 relatively blah prospects for him which means little value.

You can argue about how much Binelas or Hamilton were truly worth, though I will note that both remain top 30 prospects on the Red Sox now as well (and Binelas was our 3rd round pick last year). However, there is absolutely no evidence that Renfroe was even being considered as a DFA candidate for the Red Sox. Not with his production over the last two seasons, which again is basically a top 10 RF in baseball. 

As @monty57 states, your maligning of position players such as Caratini, Brosseau, Peterson, Renfroe, etc. just isn't consistent with the stats when we're getting above average production from all of them. 

[djoctagone]

keston hiura has been recalled from class aaa nashville.

[djoctagone]

in case you missed it, keston hiura did end up spending more than 20 days on optional assignment this year. thus, he will enter 2023 spring training with no options remaining.

however, he can be sent on optional assignment again this season. he has been optioned twice since 2 may. he may be sent on three more optional assignments this year before having to be exposed to waivers.

[Austin Tatious]

I hope Keston's sojourn was to level off the swing and get more bat to ball.

He swings and misses way too much on strikes.  But watch carefully, he misses on an uppercut.  Keith Law, who is plugged in, says that this was by design from the organization.  He said it as fact and I believe he has a source on that.

Knock it off with that and let's get more average and doubles.  I am hoping this is in the plan.  His strikeout rate is severely hampering his upside.