keston hiura recalled from class aaa nashville

[jerichoholicninja]

Davis must be putting up about 100 dWAR a game to find his sub-.600 OPS acceptable for major league regular.

[Brewcrew82]

25 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

Davis must be putting up about 100 dWAR a game to find his sub-.600 OPS acceptable for major league regular.

Some positions you can get away with putting butchers out there. Some you can't. Center field is one of those positions that you absolutely cannot, even for a short period. Davis, despite his offensive deficiencies, plays a fine CF and is actually a net positive right now (0.2 WAR) compared to Cain, who was a net negative. Why he remains on the roster and Hiura does not. If Taylor were healthy, things would be different. But he isn't so there's really no other choice. 

[timpep]

Just a dumb decision. Hiura deserves better. Can't ask much more than being the best offensive player on the team... he clearly can't prove himself or earn more playing time because he's already done far more than anybody was expecting. I just don't get it. 

I hope he ends up with a team that appreciates him.

[sveumrules]

39 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

Davis must be putting up about 100 dWAR a game to find his sub-.600 OPS acceptable for major league regular.

Davis has a 72 wRC+ so far but has done enough on the bases & in the field to shake out at 0.2 WAR over 55 PAs. Small sample size theatre to be sure, but hard for me to be too upset about getting a positive contribution from the 3rd CF/7th OF on the depth chart entering the season.

Regular CFs with similar speed/defense/no hit profiles this year include…

Myles Straw (345 PAs | 67 wRC+ | 1.2 WAR)

T Grisham (334 PAs | 81 wRC+ | 0.6 WAR)

A Duvall (301 PAs | 79 wRC+ | 0.6 WAR)

K Hernandez (238 PAs | 69 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR)

Looking at recent full seasons Michael Taylor put up 2.0 WAR with a 77 wRC+ last year, Kiermaier came in at 2.5 WAR with a 79 wRC+ in 2019, Billy Hamilton put up 1.8 WAR with a 68 wRC+ in 2018.

[Brewcrew82]

39 minutes ago, timpep said:

Just a dumb decision. Hiura deserves better. Can't ask much more than being the best offensive player on the team... he clearly can't prove himself or earn more playing time because he's already done far more than anybody was expecting. I just don't get it. 

I hope he ends up with a team that appreciates him.

I think we should all hold our fire on this until after the deadline, when hopefully a CF is acquired and Taylor can go back to being the 4th outfielder and Davis can go back to AAA. For now, the team has no other options, with Hiura being a victim of the numbers and injuries game.

It's also worth noting that, despite his recent power surge, Hiura retains a K% of 44. That is not sustainable whatsoever. Even Joey Gallo, who is everyone's favorite whipping boy on that score, has a K% below 40....

[Jim French Stepstool]

I feel for Hiura, being sent down while he's been hitting had to suck. The 3-catcher thing is a roster albatross. Let's not forget, this organization has put a premium on run prevention, and it's been successful. That's why Davis is still here--it's a premium position where defensively there would be a big dropoff from him to the other current options. That's a large part of the problem with how they view Hiura. He has some versatility, but there isn't a spot on the field you can put him where you don't hold your breath. Very few teams do the "primary DH" thing like you used to see in the 70s, so that (along with a sub-par arm & the K's) will probably, sooner or later, spell the end for him here.

I guess you could trace this whole roster mess to Severino getting suspended & the organization feeling they needed to pick up Caratini. But it wasn't like trusting Alex Jackson to be the backup for a week or two ,It was an 80 game thing. It's certainly caused more problems than I envisioned.

[brewers888]

1 hour ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I feel for Hiura, being sent down while he's been hitting had to suck. The 3-catcher thing is a roster albatross. Let's not forget, this organization has put a premium on run prevention, and it's been successful. That's why Davis is still here--it's a premium position where defensively there would be a big dropoff from him to the other current options. That's a large part of the problem with how they view Hiura. He has some versatility, but there isn't a spot on the field you can put him where you don't hold your breath. Very few teams do the "primary DH" thing like you used to see in the 70s, so that (along with a sub-par arm & the K's) will probably, sooner or later, spell the end for him here.

I guess you could trace this whole roster mess to Severino getting suspended & the organization feeling they needed to pick up Caratini. But it wasn't like trusting Alex Jackson to be the backup for a week or two ,It was an 80 game thing. It's certainly caused more problems than I envisioned.

This is a team that struggles to score runs so sending down the guy that has been the teams best hitter is inexcusable especially now that we have a DH spot that Hiura should be filling. The problem is we spent 8.5 million on McCutchen and they are going to use him even when Hiura is the far better hitter. I too hope that Keston goes to another team that can appreciate a good hitter.

[wildcat2237]

21 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think we should all hold our fire on this until the deadline, when hopefully a CF is acquired and Taylor can go back to being the 4th outfielder and Davis can go back to AAA. For now, the team has no other options, with Hiura being a victim of the numbers and injuries game.

It's also worth noting that, despite his recent power surge, Hiura retains a K% of 44. That is not sustainable whatsoever. Even Joey Gallo, who is everyone's favorite whipping boy on that score, has a K% below 40....

I agree with Brewcrew82.

1. The close to 50% whiff rate is just not acceptable. Even the best power hitters dont whiff 45-50% of the time. 

2. He is a terrible defender. 

In the end that is just not a guy that belongs on the roster of a contender. 

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, monty57 said:

Hiura has been so good against RHP this year that even though he has been misused by the team and has been predominantly used against LHP against whom he has been terrible, his combined wOBA (.356) and wRC+ (128) are still better than any of our "regulars" this season.

I understand that Hiura strikes out too much, but he has been their best hitter vs RHP this season, and there isn't even a close second. When the biggest complaint has been how our offense needs an upgrade, I don't understand what they're doing with him.

McCutchen's hot streak (which hasn't been as hot as Hiura has been all season vs RHP) has him up to a -3.6 offensive bWAR and -0.1 overall bWAR for the season. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad McCutchen has remembered how to hit, and I want him to do well, but we still would have been far better off by simply platooning the DH position all season with Hiura facing RHP and McCutchen facing LHP.

There are plenty of ways the Brewers could have found more PAs for Hiura this season, and since he's outhitting all of the other options, I think that would have made sense. It seems obvious that the Brewers are not going to allow him to get regular playing time and the high K rate is probably the reason, so I'm getting to the point that I wish they'd just trade him so he can put up a .900+ OPS somewhere that will use him correctly.

I wrote it before and will write it again: Hiura now has 20 hits against RHP this year. 7! of those hits went over the fence. Put another way, 35% of his hits against RHP have been homeruns. That's why his numbers against RHP are awesome. 

But for comparison sake, consider:

Babe Ruth: 2873 Hits, 714 HR...24.8% of his hits went for homers. 

Mickey Mantle: 2415 Hits, 536 HR...22.2% of his hits went for homers. 

Hank Aaron 3771 Hits, 755 HR...20% of his hits went for homers.

Thus, Hiura isn't going to  continue to send 31% of his hits against RHP over the fence, and certainly the Brewers know this, Otherwise, in a league where close to 2/3 of the pitchers are right-handed, Hiura would likely be on his way to Cooperstown. 

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

39 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

 I too hope that Keston goes to another team that can appreciate a good hitter.

I hope that there is a team out there that believes that a guy who Ks nearly 50% of the time is a "good hitter". They should be able to fleece that team in a deal.

[timpep]

7 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I wrote it before and will write it again: Hiura now has 20 hits against RHP this year. 7! of those hits went over the fence. Put another way, 35% of his hits against RHP have been homeruns. That's why his numbers against RHP are awesome. 

But for comparison sake, consider:

Babe Ruth: 2873 Hits, 714 HR...24.8% of his hits went for homers. 

Mickey Mantle: 2415 Hits, 536 HR...22.2% of his hits went for homers. 

Hank Aaron 3771 Hits, 755 HR...20% of his hits went for homers.

Thus, Hiura isn't going to  continue to send 31% of his hits against RHP over the fence, and certainly the Brewers know this, Otherwise, in a league where close to 2/3 of the pitchers are right-handed, Hiura would likely be on his way to Cooperstown. 

 

Take the slugging out of the equation and his .354 OBP is still better than anyone but Brosseau and Caratini. 

[Jopal78]

19 minutes ago, timpep said:

Take the slugging out of the equation and his .354 OBP is still better than anyone but Brosseau and Caratini. 

Check the BABIP against RHP, its .520. that's why the OBP is .354.

Again, he'd be a first ballot Hall of Famer if he could just keep his BABIP against RHP over .400.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, brewers888 said:

This is a team that struggles to score runs so sending down the guy that has been the teams best hitter is inexcusable especially now that we have a DH spot that Hiura should be filling. The problem is we spent 8.5 million on McCutchen and they are going to use him even when Hiura is the far better hitter. I too hope that Keston goes to another team that can appreciate a good hitter.

 

35 minutes ago, timpep said:

Take the slugging out of the equation and his .354 OBP is still better than anyone but Brosseau and Caratini. 

Please provide me with a list of guys that have sustained K rates north of 40% and yet achieved prolonged success in the majors. Hint: you won't find them. The Brewers know this, but some of you apparently don't. 

 

[tmwiese55]

Sure you can nitpick and say regression is coming or that he's not that good.  He doesn't have to earn a spot over Babe Ruth. The brewers offense is terrible and he's a better hitter than almost all of them.  Yea, I of course see the flaws in Huira but the other guys are worse. Its simply an indicator of how bad the O is that he's at least one of their top 2-3 hitters.    It's been a bit odd to me that he's this big whipping boy and picked on by the fans but so many other guys just get a free pass

[Brewcrew82]

 

11 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Sure you can nitpick and say regression is coming or that he's not that good.  He doesn't have to earn a spot over Babe Ruth. The brewers offense is terrible and he's a better hitter than almost all of them.  Yea, I of course see the flaws in Huira but the other guys are worse. Its simply an indicator of how bad the O is that he's at least one of their top 2-3 hitters. 

Keston is not a "good hitter" right now, nor is he one of our top 2-3 hitters. You cannot strikeout almost half of the time in this league and have sustained success/be considered "good". Nor is the Brewers' offense "terrible". Some of you really need to do a better job of actually looking at the stats. 

[brooks_quichenick]

12 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

Keston is not a "good hitter" right now, nor is he one of our top 2-3 hitters. You cannot strikeout almost half of the time in this league and have sustained success/be considered "good". Nor is the Brewers' offense "terrible". Some of you really need to do a better job of actually looking at the stats. 

Relative to the rest of this anemic offense, he is a "good hitter" right now. In July, his SLG is over .700 and his K rate is around 32%, which is still high, but perfectly acceptable when he's driving the ball and getting on base.

Poor timing to send him down. I understand the move from a roster construction standpoint based on the need for another bullpen arm and lack of healthy CF options, but really the issue is that we're carrying 3 catchers. Hopefully Severino gets dealt soon.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, brewers888 said:

This is a team that struggles to score runs so sending down the guy that has been the teams best hitter is inexcusable especially now that we have a DH spot that Hiura should be filling. The problem is we spent 8.5 million on McCutchen and they are going to use him even when Hiura is the far better hitter. I too hope that Keston goes to another team that can appreciate a good hitter.

Well, I illustrated the excuse. Not even saying I fully agree with it, but I understand it. Looking at offense only, both these guys trump Davis. But Davis has to play. Looking forward (again, long view, which is what they do) they probably have a little more confidence in McCutchen from now til the end of September than they do in Hiura. Especially when you consider both ends of the floor.

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

Relative to the rest of this anemic offense, he is a "good hitter" right now. In July, his SLG is over .700 and his K rate is around 32%, which is still high, but perfectly acceptable when he's driving the ball and getting on base.

Poor timing to send him down. I understand the move from a roster construction standpoint based on the need for another bullpen arm and lack of healthy CF options, but really the issue is that we're carrying 3 catchers. Hopefully Severino gets dealt soon.

True. His July numbers have been better and I'm not willing to completely give up on the guy. But that's a really small sample size. If he continues to show a reduced K% over the next week or so, then I'm sure he'll be back up in no time. But a 44% K rate in this league will never cut it. What concerns me especially is that his K% has increased every season since his rookie year. 

 

[brewers888]

33 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

Please provide me with a list of guys that have sustained K rates north of 40% and yet achieved prolonged success in the majors. Hint: you won't find them. The Brewers know this, but some of you apparently don't. 

 

If and when he regresses as most of you expect they should send him down not when he is hitting as well as any player on the team. I too enjoy the advanced stats but when the raw stats say a player is hitting you stick with the guy until the stats change and he isn't hitting any more.

[torts]

Don't worry, this is not the last of KESTDADDY, our fabled 3TO hero will be back, along with his 48% k rate, and propensity to hit fingers for days

[NBBrewFan]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Thus, Hiura isn't going to  continue to send 31% of his hits against RHP over the fence, and certainly the Brewers know this, 

Yep, I'm sure that's exactly how they made their decision. 

Stearns: "let's look for players who've exceeded expectations who are clearly headed for a regression and send them down" 

Staff: "Well we already released Cain, but wouldn't he be someone you keep because he's headed for a super-hot streak regression?" 

Stearns": "Too late, we need to find players who clearly are hitting way too good and are definitely going to regress". 

Staff: "We don't have any".

Stearns: "What?  No Regression Candidates?"

Staff: "No, No good hitters"

Stearns: "What about Hiura?"

Staff: "I guess, but how do you know he's going to regress?"

Stearns: "Well he's just hitting too well"

Staff: "But how do we know he can't continue to hit?"

Stearns: "I don't know, pick some stat and some split that justifies sending him down and keeping 5 catchers.  There's gotta be something. "

[Brewcrew82]

17 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

Yep, I'm sure that's exactly how they made their decision. 

Stearns: "let's look for players who've exceeded expectations who are clearly headed for a regression and send them down" 

Staff: "Well we already released Cain, but wouldn't he be someone you keep because he's headed for a super-hot streak regression?" 

Stearns": "Too late, we need to find players who clearly are hitting way too good and are definitely going to regress". 

Staff: "We don't have any".

Stearns: "What?  No Regression Candidates?"

Staff: "No, No good hitters"

Stearns: "What about Hiura?"

Staff: "I guess, but how do you know he's going to regress?"

Stearns: "Well he's just hitting too well"

Staff: "But how do we know he can't continue to hit?"

Stearns: "I don't know, pick some stat and some split that justifies sending him down and keeping 5 catchers.  There's gotta be something. "

Obviously, this diatribe doesn't at all represent how baseball works, much less the fact that K% is not just "some stat". If you wanted to be rational about this, you would see that we need Davis to play CF so long as Taylor remains out, and that Hiura has an option whereas all of the other candidates do not. The main reason they're keeping Severino for now is because he has hit LHP really well over the course of his career and that's something this offense has particularly struggled with this season. 

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I hope that there is a team out there that believes that a guy who Ks nearly 50% of the time is a "good hitter". They should be able to fleece that team in a deal.

Why are people predicting regression to the mean for his HR rate, but not for SO rate?

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, Robocaller said:

Why are people predicting regression to the mean for his HR rate, but not for SO rate?

His mean of the last three seasons in terms of K% is still almost 40%...

[NBBrewFan]

18 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Why are people predicting regression to the mean for his HR rate, but not for SO rate?

Because one supports their argument and the other doesn't.