keston hiura recalled from class aaa nashville

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, NBBrewFan said:

Is that good news or bad news?

Knowing Counsell, he'll probably feel like he's standing on the field naked if he can "only" carry 13 pitchers?.

Seriously though, this IL stint for Adames might be Kestons' last real good chance to get a toehold on a roster spot this year, barring injury. 

[tmwiese55]

I don't know, I still don't see where he's going to get many ABs.  Wong will play almost all 2B.  Tellez will play almost all days at one of 1B/DH. And McCutchen is back any day now.  Keston can't play 3B so it doesn't change much, if he's not the guy sent down when McCutchen is back he's still likely only going to get vs LHP starts.   Unless they do decide to follow the splits thing and play him over McCutchen, but I strongly doubt they're going to do that. 

For Huira to get regular almost every day ABs an injury to Wong or Tellez would likely have to happen 

[monty57]

Hiura hasn't played well enough to be "given" anything, but McCutchen hasn't hit RHP since 2019, so I think the Brewers could give Hiura some DH reps vs RHP to see how he performs.

McCutchen vs RHP

2022: 80 PA, .236/.300/.319/.619 79 wRC+

2021: 379 PA, .186/.298/.352/.650 76 wRC+

2020: 170 PA, .242/.294/.389/.683 81 wRC+

Hiura vs RHP

2022: 24 PA, .250/.375/.550/.925 161 wRC+

2021: 138 PA, .185/.279/.345/.624 69 wRC+

2020: 183 PA, .202/.284/.429/.714 89 wRC+

Neither of them seem to be a good option to DH vs RHP, but if this is what we have right now, we might as well give some of the PAs vs RHP to Hiura. There's some reason to believe that Hiura has fixed something and could improve, while the 36-year-old McCutchen probably isn't going to get any better.

Otherwise, we might as well just let some guys like Yelich and Renfroe get some rest by DHing every now and then against RHP and letting Taylor and Peterson get more playing time. They aren't heralded former Top 10 picks, or former MVPs, but they've outproduced Hiura and McCutchen (and Cain) for quite a while.

[GreatNWwi]

I think CC’s viewpoint is that we won’t know if Hiura can hit lefty pitching if he never faces lefty pitching.  He still has the luxury that the team is winning, we know Hiura can hit righties and he can use AAA to get him right again before the next try.  CC has used a similar strategy with multiple players over the years in all areas of play with much success.  In this case, I expect to see Hiura and McCutchen batting against their weaknesses until either they figure it out or become platoon players, playing to their strengths come late August.

I think this is how he has a history of getting more out of players than the fans/experts ever expected.  It looks to me that CC is willing to risk losing early and mid-season games in the hopes of getting more out of his team later in the year. 

[monty57]

50 minutes ago, GreatNWwi said:

I think CC’s viewpoint is that we won’t know if Hiura can hit lefty pitching if he never faces lefty pitching.  He still has the luxury that the team is winning, we know Hiura can hit righties and he can use AAA to get him right again before the next try.  CC has used a similar strategy with multiple players over the years in all areas of play with much success.  In this case, I expect to see Hiura and McCutchen batting against their weaknesses until either they figure it out or become platoon players, playing to their strengths come late August.

I think this is how he has a history of getting more out of players than the fans/experts ever expected.  It looks to me that CC is willing to risk losing early and mid-season games in the hopes of getting more out of his team later in the year. 

I could see some merit if the player is also used to their strength. This season, Hiura's starts have generally come against LHP. His PAs vs RHP have come when a RH reliever comes in later in the game, like yesterday when he hit a monster shot to win the game that he was only in because lefty Fried started. Around 3/4 of the pitchers in baseball are RH, and YTD Hiura has 21 PA vs LHP (with a 0 wRC+) and 26 PA vs RHP (with a 194 wRC+). 

Of course there would be reversion to the mean as the PAs pile up. He's not completely worthless vs LHP as his 0 wRC+ would denote, and he's not 94% above average vs righties, but at this point he is crushing righties, while McCutchen is not, so give Hiura the DH starts vs RHP, while letting McCutchen continue to crush lefties which at this point in his career is his specialty.

The Brewers need to see if Hiura is a capable MLB player or if he should be thrown to the curb. Trying to eke out some extra value is a ways down the road. Let's first see if he's worthy of a roster spot by playing to his strength. 

[CdrbrgMark]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

I could see some merit if the player is also used to their strength. This season, Hiura's starts have generally come against LHP. His PAs vs RHP have come when a RH reliever comes in later in the game, like yesterday when he hit a monster shot to win the game that he was only in because lefty Fried started. Around 3/4 of the pitchers in baseball are RH, and YTD Hiura has 21 PA vs LHP (with a 0 wRC+) and 26 PA vs RHP (with a 194 wRC+). 

Of course there would be reversion to the mean as the PAs pile up. He's not completely worthless vs LHP as his 0 wRC+ would denote, and he's not 94% above average vs righties, but at this point he is crushing righties, while McCutchen is not, so give Hiura the DH starts vs RHP, while letting McCutchen continue to crush lefties which at this point in his career is his specialty.

The Brewers need to see if Hiura is a capable MLB player or if he should be thrown to the curb. Trying to eke out some extra value is a ways down the road. Let's first see if he's worthy of a roster spot by playing to his strength. 

Hiura '' is crushing righties''.....are you serious ??

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

8 minutes ago, CdrbrgMark said:

Hiura '' is crushing righties''.....are you serious ??

As mentioned above, he's got a 194 wRC+ vs righties. Considering Vlad Jr. led all of baseball last year with a 196 wRC+ overall and finished 2nd in the AL MVP vote, yes, Hiura is crushing righties so far. The sample is very small, however.

[brooks_quichenick]

10 minutes ago, CdrbrgMark said:

Hiura '' is crushing righties''.....are you serious ??

He's a career .254/.331/.512 hitter vs. RHP with 35 HR and 29 2B. Pretty good.

 

This year alone, he is hitting .273/.385/.682 vs RHP with 3 HR. Don't let the numbers get in the way of your Keston hatred though.

[CdrbrgMark]

14 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

As mentioned above, he's got a 194 wRC+ vs righties. Considering Vlad Jr. led all of baseball last year with a 196 wRC+ overall and finished 2nd in the AL MVP vote, yes, Hiura is crushing righties so far. The sample is very small, however.

26 PA, how many did Vlad Jr. have? Are walks figured into wRC ?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

6 minutes ago, CdrbrgMark said:

26 PA, how many did Vlad Jr. have? Are walks figured into wRC ?

Yes, walks are figured into calculating a player's wRC+ value.

And as I mentioned, and will repeat, Hiura's sample this season vs. right-handed pitching is very small. So in theory a cold week vs. right-handed pitching could bring that value down quite quickly. But stats don't lie. 

[GreatNWwi]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

....

The Brewers need to see if Hiura is a capable MLB player or if he should be thrown to the curb. Trying to eke out some extra value is a ways down the road. Let's first see if he's worthy of a roster spot by playing to his strength. 

This is what I think they are doing except they are not concerned about his current strength and challenging his weakness.  I think this is their textbook playbook for determining if a player is worthy of a roster spot in September and not worry about it early in the season.

[GreatNWwi]

Over the CC years we have seen plenty of players that the fans would have thrown to the curb in May/June become significant contributors in September.  On that same note we have seen plenty of players that the fans would have thrown to the curb in May/June DFA'd by August/September but were given plenty of opportunity to be that guy along the way.

[CdrbrgMark]

42 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

He's a career .254/.331/.512 hitter vs. RHP with 35 HR and 29 2B. Pretty good.

 

This year alone, he is hitting .273/.385/.682 vs RHP with 3 HR. Don't let the numbers get in the way of your Keston hatred though.

 Your 2022 stats are fairly higher than other posts I've seen on BF. I do suppose yesterday's homerun could have given him quite a boost.

[sveumrules]

Hiura’s samples everywhere are small.
 

838 PAs, even if they came consecutively as an every day player over the course of a season and change to start a player’s career, would still have some noise in it.

Keston has taken those 838 PAs over the course of four partial seasons covering almost three calendar years with a pandemic & at least three different MLB sanctioned baseballs in play, there is sooo much noise in that sample.

Now split it up into even smaller samples, 226 career PAs vs LHP & 21 PAs vs LHP this year, and you’re introducing exponentially more noise.

According to the FanGraphs glossary, platoon splits start to stabilize around 1,500 total PAs, The Book indicates it is considerably higher than that.

The only thing we have enough evidence to truly surmise at this point is Keston is a brutal fielder with a lot of power and even more swing & miss. Where the levels of all the details surrounding that finally settle is very much yet to be determined.

[Joseph Zarr]

6 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

 

The only thing we have enough evidence to truly surmise at this point is Keston is a brutal fielder with a lot of power and even more swing & miss. Where the levels of all the details surrounding that finally settle is very much yet to be determined.

^^THIS

And, I think this is what is often forgotten and, hence, the debate - tho clouded in murky gray - tends to be filled with impatience. I sometimes fall into this myself. He's like the NBA veteran who can't play a lick of defense but is known as a 3-point shooter. Where Keston will ultimately have to solidify his career is most likely one thing and one thing only: consistent offensive production. To carry out that NBA comparison further: Will he become a Bryn Forbes or will he become, say, a Del Curry?

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Hiura’s samples everywhere are small.
 

838 PAs, even if they came consecutively as an every day player over the course of a season and change to start a player’s career, would still have some noise in it.

Keston has taken those 838 PAs over the course of four partial seasons covering almost three calendar years with a pandemic & at least three different MLB sanctioned baseballs in play, there is sooo much noise in that sample.

Now split it up into even smaller samples, 226 career PAs vs LHP & 21 PAs vs LHP this year, and you’re introducing exponentially more noise.

According to the FanGraphs glossary, platoon splits start to stabilize around 1,500 total PAs, The Book indicates it is considerably higher than that.

The only thing we have enough evidence to truly surmise at this point is Keston is a brutal fielder with a lot of power and even more swing & miss. Where the levels of all the details surrounding that finally settle is very much yet to be determined.

J

Just without the eye, defense and the criminal stalking. 

[monty57]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Hiura’s samples everywhere are small.
 

838 PAs, even if they came consecutively as an every day player over the course of a season and change to start a player’s career, would still have some noise in it.

Keston has taken those 838 PAs over the course of four partial seasons covering almost three calendar years with a pandemic & at least three different MLB sanctioned baseballs in play, there is sooo much noise in that sample.

Now split it up into even smaller samples, 226 career PAs vs LHP & 21 PAs vs LHP this year, and you’re introducing exponentially more noise.

According to the FanGraphs glossary, platoon splits start to stabilize around 1,500 total PAs, The Book indicates it is considerably higher than that.

The only thing we have enough evidence to truly surmise at this point is Keston is a brutal fielder with a lot of power and even more swing & miss. Where the levels of all the details surrounding that finally settle is very much yet to be determined.

Totally agree. My statements on Hiura are kind of along the theory of "if a guy hits three HR in a game, you don't sit him the next day." Right now, Hiura is hitting righties well so let him play out the hot streak and see what happens. This is especially true when the alternative is McCutchen, who hasn't hit well against righties in three years.

As I mentioned, Hiura will undoubtedly hit better against LHP and worse against RHP than he has so far this year, but he's done well enough so far vs RHP (especially relative to McCutchen) that I'd like to see him get more playing time for a while to see if he has figured something out, or if he's just been "lucky." He's still striking out a lot, so maybe he'll fall on his face... but maybe he won't.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Hiura’s samples everywhere are small.
 

838 PAs, even if they came consecutively as an every day player over the course of a season and change to start a player’s career, would still have some noise in it.

Keston has taken those 838 PAs over the course of four partial seasons covering almost three calendar years with a pandemic & at least three different MLB sanctioned baseballs in play, there is sooo much noise in that sample.

Now split it up into even smaller samples, 226 career PAs vs LHP & 21 PAs vs LHP this year, and you’re introducing exponentially more noise.

According to the FanGraphs glossary, platoon splits start to stabilize around 1,500 total PAs, The Book indicates it is considerably higher than that.

The only thing we have enough evidence to truly surmise at this point is Keston is a brutal fielder with a lot of power and even more swing & miss. Where the levels of all the details surrounding that finally settle is very much yet to be determined.

This is why, despite many on here who want to be rid of him forever, I still harbor hope that the guy can be a productive MLB hitter for us. At the very least, with his raw hitting tools, you have to keep giving him more opportunities until he either proves himself or falls flat on his face. 2019 wasn't that long ago and his shortened 2020 wasn't all that terrible even. As far as his 2021, goes, yeah, that was rough, but he had a heck of a lot more than baseball to worry about. He may never be the superstar we all hoped for, but the swing adjustments that he showed this spring and to start the year have me intrigued. Considering his non-existent trade value, the Brewers are currently best served by keeping him and playing him, whether in AAA or with the big league club. But he cannot play exclusively against left-handers. That is just setting him for failure. Hopefully his HR yesterday and Adames' injury/McCutchen's slow recovery from COVID lead CC to this realization and we see him in the lineup tomorrow night. 

[monty57]

2 hours ago, GreatNWwi said:

This is what I think they are doing except they are not concerned about his current strength and challenging his weakness.  I think this is their textbook playbook for determining if a player is worthy of a roster spot in September and not worry about it early in the season.

Fair enough, but I'm still concerned about his "current strength" as well. He looked so bad the past couple of seasons that he really needs to prove himself all around. If he ends up being a guy that mashes RHP, but can't hit lefties, then he could build a decent career around that.

I'm happy that he's shown some life this year and I'm rooting for him. Him "fixing things" would go a long way in helping the Brewers for he next few years.

[torts]

KESTDADDY babyttttt

[djoctagone]

On 5/18/2022 at 9:40 AM, djoctagone said:

worth noting that hiura has yet to spend 20 days on optional assignment this year, meaning that his final option hasn't burned yet.

come 30 may, the brewers will be limited to 13 pitchers on the active roster, so there's room to keep hiura after that date.

then again . . .

 

[Dragonbait]

At this point.. my not just say all season.

[Brewcrew82]

.831 OPS, same amount of home runs as last year in almost a quarter of the at-bats. This occurring after his swing changes in the offseason and being our "MVP" of the spring. Seems to me like we've found our DH against RHPs. He's always had the talent...

[Robocaller]

Hiura has 7 HRs in AAA and ML this year and zero doubles or triples.

Small sample, but seemed odd.

[markedman5]

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2022/5/28/23143970/milwaukee-brewers-keston-hiura-reverse-platoon-splits-are-not-a-fluke