keston hiura recalled from class aaa nashville

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Roderick said:

Disagree.  He has more than a draft pick to his pedigree.  He hit everywhere in the minors and that was an awesome 2019.  That is enough to hold on to just to see if anything clicks, even paying 1st year arby rates.  If I was the GM of a team rebuilding, I would give some value to acquiring Hiura.   If he figures it out, there would be enormous payout on that trade.

I can see the possibilities that Wong is not brought back at $8M next year ($10M net of buyout)?   If not, then there is a spot for Hiura.

The Brewers aren't going to just cut him loose for nothing.

We can agree to disagree. The minor leagues are  littered with players who hit at every level and can't hit in the majors. That's primarily because the best 150 or so pitchers in the United States don't play in the minor leagues. 

We don't disagree however, that Hiura was awesome in 2019. But then again it was 3 years ago, and he's been going backwards ever since.  

You could be right, and the Brewers will take another shot on him again next year; but I think we can agree as it stands now:  soon to be out of options, with a multi-million dollar guaranteed contract and yet not amongst their top 26 players, his position in the organization is tenuous.

Finally, just because a team may be rebuilding and without incredible pressure to win, doesn't mean they're also ignorant. I'm sure every rebuilding club in the majors would take Hiura if they could acquire him for free because then they would have nothing to lose. However, asking them to give something valuable in return for a flawed player is another story. 

[brewers888]

For an organization that prides itself on its analytics you really have to wonder why Counsell insisted on playing McCutchen every day despite the fact he hasn't hit righties in years and why he didn't let Hiura play against righties when he has reverse splits.

[monty57]

18 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Finally, just because a team may be rebuilding and without incredible pressure to win, doesn't mean they're also ignorant. I'm sure every rebuilding club in the majors would take Hiura if they could acquire him for free because then they would have nothing to lose. However, asking them to give something valuable in return for a flawed player is another story. 

Therein lies the question. Hiura has some value, but how much, and is it enough for the Brewers to trade him away rather than holding onto him for the remainder of the season to see if he can get things fixed enough that he can help them out?

If there is one GM out there who likes him enough to give up a rental player who can help the Brewers win this year, than he'll probably be traded. If not, then we might as well hold him rather than giving him away for nothing. This is still a "risk free" year for the Brewers. Next year, when Hiura is out of options, things will be different.

[sveumrules]

Hiura doesn't have enough MLB PAs for his platoon splits to have stabilized yet, that is probably why the front office hasn't given them much importance to this point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

51 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Finally, just because a team may be rebuilding and without incredible pressure to win, doesn't mean they're also ignorant. I'm sure every rebuilding club in the majors would take Hiura if they could acquire him for free because then they would have nothing to lose. However, asking them to give something valuable in return for a flawed player is another story. 

The thing about rebuilding teams is that they're not generally looking for multi-million dollar guaranteed contracts with limited team control left, which is where Hiura is rapidly heading in his career.

Will a team take Keston? Sure, definitely. Will a team give up anything of value for Keston? Almost surely not.

[Oxy]

18 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The thing about rebuilding teams is that they're not generally looking for multi-million dollar guaranteed contracts with limited team control left, which is where Hiura is rapidly heading in his career.

Will a team take Keston? Sure, definitely. Will a team give up anything of value for Keston? Almost surely not.

He has 2 years and 29 days of service time, so plenty of control left and will likely make the league minimum again next year.   Even so, arbitration contracts are not guaranteed and I doubt Keston will get a multi-million dollar value whenever that time comes.

That said, he isn't worth a lot, but rentals playing on non-contending teams in July aren't worth a lot to those teams either.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Oxy said:

He has 2 years and 29 days of service time, so plenty of control left and will likely make the league minimum again next year.   Even so, arbitration contracts are not guaranteed and I doubt Keston will get a multi-million dollar value whenever that time comes.

That said, he isn't worth a lot, but rentals playing on non-contending teams in July aren't worth a lot to those teams either.

But I suspect every one of those non-contending teams would rather take a flyer on an A-ball player over Keston Hiura.*

*naturally, this depends on no significant changes with Hiura

[Fear The Chorizo]

27 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

But I suspect every one of those non-contending teams would rather take a flyer on an A-ball player over Keston Hiura.*

*naturally, this depends on no significant changes with Hiura

one out of every 25 A-ball players develops into the player Hiura is right now - the rest flame out.  If a team right now is offered the choice between Hiura and a low-minors prospect, unless that prospect is a ballyhooed player (who would essentially be untradeable to the parent organization), Hiura will be the more valuable player to pick.

 

There would be plenty of rebuilding teams willing to take a flier on Hiura to see if they either catch lightning in a bottle longterm, or he hits well enough to flip him down the road.

[Fear The Chorizo]

We don't disagree however, that Hiura was awesome in 2019. But then again it was 3 years ago, and he's been going backwards ever since.  

2020 was a ~60 game season due to COVID that didn't have any sort of clubhouse camera replay available for players to look at their ABs in between at bats...tons of players went backwards that season.

2021 saw Hiura deal with a position change to 1B and cope with watching his mother fight non-Hodgkins Lymphoma....not exactly an offseason that caters well with getting a mental break and then working hard on making adjustments to his swing/approach.

2022 has been all of a handful of games at the MLB  level for Hiura - he hit well in Spring Training and has been hitting well in AAA bookending that ~month stretch where he got sporadic playing time that frankly didn't even bother to take advantage of his career-long reverse platoon splits.

Reality is that Hiura has had an awful 2 years of MLB production spread over the past 2+ years (not 3), during which time he's also dealt with some difficult family health issues and most of 1 season cut short due to a pandemic.

 

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Hiura doesn't have enough MLB PAs for his platoon splits to have stabilized yet, that is probably why the front office hasn't given them much importance to this point.

Even if that is true (I think it's not), McCutchen's sample size is plenty big.

[SRB]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Hiura doesn't have enough MLB PAs for his platoon splits to have stabilized yet, that is probably why the front office hasn't given them much importance to this point.

Anyone else find it weird that there isn't a public source for basic minor league splits in the year 2022? It seems like it would be incredibly easy to implement.

There used to  be a minor league splits website but it has been defunct for many years. (Actually I think it was set up by the guy who used to moderate the ancient SB Nation Brewers website?)

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

one out of every 25 A-ball players develops into the player Hiura is right now - the rest flame out.  If a team right now is offered the choice between Hiura and a low-minors prospect, unless that prospect is a ballyhooed player (who would essentially be untradeable to the parent organization), Hiura will be the more valuable player to pick.

Absolutely, but that team also gets 6+ years of that player if they pan out, three of which are at the minimum, while Hiura is only going to get more expensive.

Teams, especially rebuilding teams with long timelines, are much more likely to trade for a bigger risk with more potential control years over a player with limited control remaining and a rising contract.

What good would Keston Hiura do for the Pirates or Orioles? Neither is going to be good this year. Neither will likely be good next year. That means the actual "upside" in Hiura is trading him for yet another piece in the coming year to acquire yet another player that will arrive later but have considerably more control time attached to them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

46 minutes ago, SRB said:

Anyone else find it weird that there isn't a public source for basic minor league splits in the year 2022? It seems like it would be incredibly easy to implement.

There used to  be a minor league splits website but it has been defunct for many years. (Actually I think it was set up by the guy who used to moderate the ancient SB Nation Brewers website?)

B-Ref has yearly splits for MiLB but not career splits.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hiura-000kes&type=bgl&year=2022

(scroll down below the game logs)

[SRB]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

B-Ref has yearly splits for MiLB but not career splits.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hiura-000kes&type=bgl&year=2022

(scroll down below the game logs)

Thank you! I did not know that. It looks like Hiura's platoon splits are indeed much less settled than I had thought. Some years he has hit RHP much better, but some years LHP.

[Fear The Chorizo]

15 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Absolutely, but that team also gets 6+ years of that player if they pan out, three of which are at the minimum, while Hiura is only going to get more expensive.

Teams, especially rebuilding teams with long timelines, are much more likely to trade for a bigger risk with more potential control years over a player with limited control remaining and a rising contract.

What good would Keston Hiura do for the Pirates or Orioles? Neither is going to be good this year. Neither will likely be good next year. That means the actual "upside" in Hiura is trading him for yet another piece in the coming year to acquire yet another player that will arrive later but have considerably more control time attached to them.

Sure, if they pan out, said team gets 6+ years of that player, probably after at least 3-4 more years of minor league development.  This type of thinking is why there are some organizations stuck in permanent rebuilding mode.  The odds are stacked incredibly low for a random single A player becoming a difference maker at the MLB level compared to a former top 10 draft pick who rocketed through the minors and had rookie of the year-level success at the plate in his first extended playing time in the majors.

 

What good would Keston Hiura do for the Pirates or Orioles?  At this point in his career and even after his 1st arbitration season, he'd be a cheap MLB player with multiple years of remaining team control that they could give regular playing time to in hopes he rounds back to the what he showed he can be offensively at the major league level.  It's not like Hiura's first arbitration hearing is going to grant him $10M a season, so rising cost at this point isn't really an issue.  This could happen while the wave of prospects they are waiting on continues developing in the minor leagues.  Hiura would be a MLB flyer noncontending teams take a shot at that could wind up being traded at a later date for more prospect talent, or if he reverts back to what he looked like in 2019 he's a MLB difference-maker.

[folly412]

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Sure, if they pan out, said team gets 6+ years of that player, probably after at least 3-4 more years of minor league development.  This type of thinking is why there are some organizations stuck in permanent rebuilding mode.

Well that's not true at all. It all depends whether the team's scouting and development is good and they pick the right player. The Rays are masters at choosing the right players to pluck out of other systems.

I'm not even defending perpetually bad teams who take shots at higher-risk players over more established players, I'm just saying that's what a lot of teams do, for good or bad.

[djoctagone]

worth noting that hiura has yet to spend 20 days on optional assignment this year, meaning that his final option hasn't burned yet.

come 30 may, the brewers will be limited to 13 pitchers on the active roster, so there's room to keep hiura after that date.

[Fear The Chorizo]

28 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Well that's not true at all. It all depends whether the team's scouting and development is good and they pick the right player. The Rays are masters at choosing the right players to pluck out of other systems.

I'm not even defending perpetually bad teams who take shots at higher-risk players over more established players, I'm just saying that's what a lot of teams do, for good or bad.

Your initial comment on this specifically mentioned the Pirates and Orioles....two organizations that frankly are in perpetual rebuilding mode. So it actually is true more often than not - the Rays also get way too much credit for being the smartest guys in the baseball room.  They make those moves out of financial necessity, and also a bunch of other moves that involve acquiring MLB-ready talent that may be undervalued by other organizations - and make so many of these moves that the failed attempts just get swept under the rug as part of how they have to do business.  Last I checked, the number of world series banners flying around their dump of a stadium is still pretty low.

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Your initial comment on this specifically mentioned the Pirates and Orioles....two organizations that frankly are in perpetual rebuilding mode. So it actually is true more often than not - the Rays also get way too much credit for being the smartest guys in the baseball room.  They make those moves out of financial necessity, and also a bunch of other moves that involve acquiring MLB-ready talent that may be undervalued by other organizations - and make so many of these moves that the failed attempts just get swept under the rug as part of how they have to do business.  Last I checked, the number of world series banners flying around their dump of a stadium is still pretty low.

I mentioned the Pirates and Orioles because they're guaranteed to trade away veterans every season but they're not the only teams trading away veterans.

As for the Rays, I agree that they're overrated in a few ways and I actually dislike that franchise a lot. Their payroll is often less than what they receive from MLB in national contracts, which should be completely unacceptable. They're skimming their ticket sales, competitive balance sharing, and their entire TV contract some seasons while trading off players. But they're a really smart team, excusing that the Twins have absolutely hosed them in two consecutive trades, which delights me to no end. ?

[Jopal78]

17 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

We don't disagree however, that Hiura was awesome in 2019. But then again it was 3 years ago, and he's been going backwards ever since.  

2020 was a ~60 game season due to COVID that didn't have any sort of clubhouse camera replay available for players to look at their ABs in between at bats...tons of players went backwards that season.

2021 saw Hiura deal with a position change to 1B and cope with watching his mother fight non-Hodgkins Lymphoma....not exactly an offseason that caters well with getting a mental break and then working hard on making adjustments to his swing/approach.

2022 has been all of a handful of games at the MLB  level for Hiura - he hit well in Spring Training and has been hitting well in AAA bookending that ~month stretch where he got sporadic playing time that frankly didn't even bother to take advantage of his career-long reverse platoon splits.

Reality is that Hiura has had an awful 2 years of MLB production spread over the past 2+ years (not 3), during which time he's also dealt with some difficult family health issues and most of 1 season cut short due to a pandemic.

 

I hope you're right, but it seems like a lot of excuses. All I know is he ripped the cover of the ball in the summer of 2019 which, as we progress through summer of 2022, was three years ago.

Since that point in time he hasn't been a major league caliber player offensively or defensively, and this coming despite extreme patience by the Brewers in giving him hundreds of major league at bats to try to figure it out in the midst of playoff chases.  

We'll see what this summer holds, he either shows them something now/soon, or he's probably looking for a roster spot with a different club for 2023.

[NBBrewFan]

47 minutes ago, djoctagone said:

come 30 may, the brewers will be limited to 13 pitchers on the active roster, so there's room to keep hiura after that date.

Is that good news or bad news?

[jerichoholicninja]

Any team that trades for Hiura could easily trade him again for something of value if he rebounds before he gets "expensive". The idea that no rebuilding teams would want him is just ludicrous. What they would give up is certainly debatable though.

[damuelle]

We're throwing him back into the fire a bit here, starting against a top lefty, but I guess every opportunity should be embraced.

Before the demotion to AAA, Keston had put up a .925 OPS against righties and a .399 OPS against lefties.

And in his short time in AAA, here's how he performed against lefties:
- Strike out swinging
- Fly out to RF
- Strike out swinging
- Fly out to CF
- Strike out looking
- Single to LF
- Strike out swinging
- Single to LF

Of course, in 403 MLB/AAA plate appearances in 2021, Keston actually hit lefties (.848 OPS against) better than righties (.636 OPS against), so who knows what the issue this year has been. Let's hope he puts those demons aside from today forward!

[Outlander]

In his parts of 4 seasons in the majors he has never been able to hit lefties. If he had some success in 2021 in AAA, great, but how about the Brewers try playing him where he has actually had some success in the majors. That is not against lefties.