keston hiura recalled from class aaa nashville

[KeithStone53151]

2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Just like with the Brewers, from the Pirates perspective Hiura doesn't bring much to the table: indisputably talented but far removed from MLB success. But with a .973 career OPS in AAA nothing left to prove in the minors, will be out of options and heading into arbitration where his pay will grow exponentially. 

When the Pirates trade Bryan Reynolds, they will be looking for a return of the most talent that could help them win 2-3 years from now; I don't believe they'd be interested in taking less of those type of players in order to add a Keston Hiura to their major league club. 

Maybe not, but Hiura hasn't really had a chance to play regularly this year. Maybe with regular at bats and knowing a bad week won't mean he loses his playing time, maybe he settles in and starts to show his talent. And maybe the Pirates can trade him in the offseason or at the deadline. What you're talking about is GM's playing low-grade checkers...not wanting Hiura solely because he doesn't fit their timeline to compete, these are some of the brightest minds in baseball. If they think they can turn Hiura around with a few tweaks and regular atbats, they can easily get way more value flipping him in a year or two than as part of the trade for Reynolds.

[nate82]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

The Nationals GM will likely be fired before 2023, but even as a rental it would be a terrible move to trade Josh Bell for Hiura. They will have better offers, and would be ahead to take an A ball player with upside over a guy who can't crack the 26 man lineup of the Brewers and is out of options and about to get expensive. 

If by "Kemp", you mean Tony Kemp, that's the caliber of lateral move I could see them making with Hiura, however they don't really need another player who is offensively challenged and only plays 2B/LF

I don't think you read what I posted on the Nationals trade.  It wouldn't be Hiura for Bell, it would be Hiura+ for Bell meaning Hiura wouldn't be the main piece going back to the Nationals in that trade.  Bell's value is not as high as you think it is either while there will be other teams bidding for Bell the price won't increase all that much.  Teams will be trying to get Bell for basically lottery tickets.  Something similar to what the Brewers gave up for Escobar last year or what the Cubs got in return for Joc Pederson in the trade with the Braves.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

I don't think you read what I posted on the Nationals trade.  It wouldn't be Hiura for Bell, it would be Hiura+ for Bell meaning Hiura wouldn't be the main piece going back to the Nationals in that trade.  Bell's value is not as high as you think it is either while there will be other teams bidding for Bell the price won't increase all that much.  Teams will be trying to get Bell for basically lottery tickets.  Something similar to what the Brewers gave up for Escobar last year or what the Cubs got in return for Joc Pederson in the trade with the Braves.

I didn't misread it, It's just as it stands Hiura has little to no trade value to anyone. Sure, he's got the pedigree being a Top 10 pick, and he's got his 2019 stat sheet, but when he's out of options in 2023,  he's the new Billy McKinney: not good enough to crack a 26 man roster and too much talent/pedigree to make it through waivers. 

Regarding Bell, I disagree. If he keep up his .920 OPS, his bat hits in the middle of the order for any contender in the majors,  especially now with the universal DH and the he's a pure rental. They'll get a nice return for him.  

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Maybe not, but Hiura hasn't really had a chance to play regularly this year. Maybe with regular at bats and knowing a bad week won't mean he loses his playing time, maybe he settles in and starts to show his talent. And maybe the Pirates can trade him in the offseason or at the deadline. What you're talking about is GM's playing low-grade checkers...not wanting Hiura solely because he doesn't fit their timeline to compete, these are some of the brightest minds in baseball. If they think they can turn Hiura around with a few tweaks and regular atbats, they can easily get way more value flipping him in a year or two than as part of the trade for Reynolds.

I guess this is where we disagree. The Brewers are one of the more patient teams in the league. They've given Hiura 400 at bats across 3 calendar years to show them something. In that span he's produced a slash line of .192/.279/.326 and failed to even put the ball in play 182 times out of those 400 at bats.  He's done nothing offensively to warrant more playing time with Milwaukee.

Don't get me wrong, I wish he would find "it" and be the #3 hitter for years to come. However, given the Brewers signed Wong to a multi-year deal to play 2B moving Hiura to 1B, then traded for Tellez with years of team control to play 1B, then signed Andrew McCutchen to DH I think the writing is on the wall as to what the front office thinks of Hiura. 

As for other GMs, if they're not trying to compete they should be rebuilding. It's one thing to take a flier on a former Top 10 draft pick if he was on the waiver wire. I doubt any rebuilding GM would trade a quality veteran like Reynolds, for example, for a package of players that includes a major leaguer like Hiura without options, who hasn't hit in years and is a liability defensively. 

[jerichoholicninja]

Hiura is almost certainly going to be a throw-in in some trade, whether before the deadline or this offseason. And if I'm running a rebuilding team, why not? Maybe he goes back to what he did his rookie year and you get a steal. Maybe he continues to suck and in that case you dump him. As a struggling former high draft pick and top prospect he's the exact kind of guy that gets traded to some team willing to plug him in everyday and see if it works.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

27 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

As a struggling former high draft pick and top prospect he's the exact kind of guy that gets traded to some team willing to plug him in everyday and see if it works.

But as a throw-in, not as a major component of the deal. Who would have thought a couple years ago that we'd be at this point with Keston Hiura? What a terrible mix of both a system and player failure.

[NBBrewFan]

Right now, I think Keston's value is so low that even as a throw-in he would net so little that I think the Brewers will just wait until they have to make a move (end of next spring training) then outright him to the minors.  That gives them roughly 4 months to see if he can make the necessary adjustments (plus next spring). For Keston, he probably should just go the FA route as I think that there would be someone willing to give him a shot, but giving up any prospect with value is likely not going to happen.

[djoctagone]

 

[stoutdude04]

Problem is - this is what happens.  He goes down, rakes, comes up and gets at bats here and there and looks the same.  He really should have been DHing against righties to start the year and playing first against lefties if they wanted to know if he had made adjustments.

[Joseph Zarr]

9 minutes ago, stoutdude04 said:

Problem is - this is what happens.  He goes down, rakes, comes up and gets at bats here and there and looks the same.  He really should have been DHing against righties to start the year and playing first against lefties if they wanted to know if he had made adjustments.

The sample sizes are just too small to really make any proclamations. He certainly didn't rake in Triple-A in 2021. He was a middle-of-the-road Triple-A player last year. He had a fantastic game against another Divisional Leader this past week that really was key in the series win in Jacksonville. What he does from here on out? Time will tell. 

I don't know what they do with Keston. He's a conundrum for me. We have plenty of options throughout the system, now, who play a better 2B and 1B. So, his hitting as a DH has to be 'must play' to merit a roster spot as far as I'm concerned. I'm curious to see how it plays out.

[Fear The Chorizo]

7 minutes ago, stoutdude04 said:

Problem is - this is what happens.  He goes down, rakes, comes up and gets at bats here and there and looks the same.  He really should have been DHing against righties to start the year and playing first against lefties if they wanted to know if he had made adjustments.

Then maybe the solution is to give Hiura extended run as the team's DH - He has nothing left to prove in the minors, and he's too talented a hitter for the Brewers to just give up on him as a longterm DH option for their organization now that the DH is in the National League.  

Hiura wasn't hitting well while in Milwaukee to start the season, but nobody else on the roster was, either aside from the two other hitters (Rowdy and McCutcheon) that take at bats away from him - Keston did show some signs in limited at bats but he got squeezed out of the lineup due to a numbers game and the fact he still had a minor league option.  

Through just over 100 plate appearances, McCutcheon's OPS is south of 0.650 and his on base percentage is below 0.300.  If he doesn't pick it up and Hiura continues to rake in AAA then Hiura needs to be called up and given a legit shot at the everyday DH role.  A corresponding roster move would likely wind up being someone going on the injured list.

[Brewcrew82]

52 minutes ago, Julio Muchacho said:

The sample sizes are just too small to really make any proclamations. He certainly didn't rake in Triple-A in 2021. He was a middle-of-the-road Triple-A player last year. He had a fantastic game against another Divisional Leader this past week that really was key in the series win in Jacksonville. What he does from here on out? Time will tell. 

I don't know what they do with Keston. He's a conundrum for me. We have plenty of options throughout the system, now, who play a better 2B and 1B. So, his hitting as a DH has to be 'must play' to merit a roster spot as far as I'm concerned. I'm curious to see how it plays out.

I agree that his swing adjustments are real, and that he deserves another extended look at the big league level, which he didn't truly get in his stint to start the season. In fact, he was set up for failure with how Counsell was playing him, and that he didn't fall flat on his face like last year is noteworthy imo. 

Also, if I'm not mistaken, his 2 home run, 7 RBI game came against Max Meyer, one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball and a pitcher who is armed with a big heater. It's just one game, but that he was able to do that against a pitcher of that caliber says something to me.  

Finally, there's no way I'm trading Hiura right now. His value is at an all-time low. That's just asking for him to catch on and start hitting well with another team, while we get next to nothing in return. Would be a disastrous outcome for a small-market team like ours that is so close to the promised land and which could stand to benefit from more hitting. 

[stoutdude04]

40 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Then maybe the solution is to give Hiura extended run as the team's DH - He has nothing left to prove in the minors, and he's too talented a hitter for the Brewers to just give up on him as a longterm DH option for their organization now that the DH is in the National League.  

Hiura wasn't hitting well while in Milwaukee to start the season, but nobody else on the roster was, either aside from the two other hitters (Rowdy and McCutcheon) that take at bats away from him - Keston did show some signs in limited at bats but he got squeezed out of the lineup due to a numbers game and the fact he still had a minor league option.  

Through just over 100 plate appearances, McCutcheon's OPS is south of 0.650 and his on base percentage is below 0.300.  If he doesn't pick it up and Hiura continues to rake in AAA then Hiura needs to be called up and given a legit shot at the everyday DH role.  A corresponding roster move would likely wind up being someone going on the injured list.

I agree with you.  Thought, to be fair, I think he was hitting about the same or better than many.  He was right around 100 ops+ and that was with him facing mainly lefties.  However, the sample size was obviously small, but he did wiff in about half of his at bats.  Again, small sample both ways.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Finally, there's no way I'm trading Hiura right now. His value is at an all-time low. That's just asking for him to catch on and start hitting well with another team, while we get next to nothing in return. Would be a disastrous outcome for a small-market team like ours that is so close to the promised land and which could stand to benefit from more hitting. 

The only reason for the Brewers to trade Hiura this season is if someone gives up some value for him. Since it's probably unlikely that happens, they might as well hold on to him and see if his adjustments work.

The best case scenario is that Hiura fixes things and can help the Brewers for a few years. If that doesn't happen, I'd think that they'll get just as much (little?) for him next offseason as they will in a mid-season trade, so we might as well wait until the offseason to see if Hiura can turn things around.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I just can't handle a guy in the lineup that strikes out at a 40% clip. Yeah, yeah, I know, strikeouts don't matter. To me they do. When he is whiffing at that sort of astronomical rate, he's basically a low-average black hole in the lineup. Considering he provides no defensive value, basically his only selling point is that he'll occasionally run into a HR. Unfortunately hitters like that are a dime a dozen. Unless Keston finds the stroke that made him a top draft pick, drastically cuts down on the Ks, and finds the all-fields complete hitter that made him look like a future franchise cornerstone in 2019, he has no future as a Milwaukee Brewer. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the Brewers need to forget about Hiura until the middle of June at the earliest. Let him go down, play every day, and see where he is in a month. Whatever ails him isn't likely to fix itself in ten days so give him plenty of time to get his feet back under him, then see if the changes he has made might translate to the MLB level.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I just can't handle a guy in the lineup that strikes out at a 40% clip. Yeah, yeah, I know, strikeouts don't matter. To me they do. When he is whiffing at that sort of astronomical rate, he's basically a low-average black hole in the lineup. Considering he provides no defensive value, basically his only selling point is that he'll occasionally run into a HR. Unfortunately hitters like that are a dime a dozen. Unless Keston finds the stroke that made him a top draft pick, drastically cuts down on the Ks, and finds the all-fields complete hitter that made him look like a future franchise cornerstone in 2019, he has no future as a Milwaukee Brewer. 

I generally ignore strikeouts but even I acknowledge a 40% K rate is too damned high and Keston's 2022 mark was nearly 50%.

When a strikeout rate goes much over 33%, it's indicative of bigger problems with the hitter, either an inability to recognize pitches and/or a gaping hole in his swing that's easily exploited by even mediocre pitchers.

So while strikeouts "don't really matter", that only applies if the player's strikeout rate isn't astronomical, which Hiura's was this season (and his K rate has risen every season he's in MLB, a terrible long-term indicator).

[KeithStone53151]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I just can't handle a guy in the lineup that strikes out at a 40% clip. Yeah, yeah, I know, strikeouts don't matter. To me they do. When he is whiffing at that sort of astronomical rate, he's basically a low-average black hole in the lineup. Considering he provides no defensive value, basically his only selling point is that he'll occasionally run into a HR. Unfortunately hitters like that are a dime a dozen. Unless Keston finds the stroke that made him a top draft pick, drastically cuts down on the Ks, and finds the all-fields complete hitter that made him look like a future franchise cornerstone in 2019, he has no future as a Milwaukee Brewer. 

Strikeouts as a stand alone stat don't really matter, but every time you don't put the ball in play...you can't get a hit. It's fair to take a look around MLB and see if anyone else is a successful MLB hitter with a 40% k rate. I suspect you won't find one, so saying Hiura can be a successful MLB player with a 40% k rate is just false.

That said, I think with consistent at bats after a good chunk of time in the minors this year...I think it could be significantly better. But that specific stat line has to improve for him to have success at the mlb level.

[Outlander]

I agree that he should spend time in AAA, see if he has continued success and can cut down on his strikeouts. I certainly think he still has value and at the very least provide a rental bat at the deadline if he continues to hit at AAA. I also disagree with the assertion that the Brewers have plenty of options at 1B in the system, it is still rather weak there if Rowdy goes down. It would also be nice to have Hiura at DH instead of of paying a veteran like McCutchen this year, who quite honestly I think Hiura would outproduce if he cut down on his strikeouts even slightly.

[Jopal78]

2 minutes ago, Outlander said:

I agree that he should spend time in AAA, see if he has continued success and can cut down on his strikeouts. I certainly think he still has value and at the very least provide a rental bat at the deadline if he continues to hit at AAA. I also disagree with the assertion that the Brewers have plenty of options at 1B in the system, it is still rather weak there if Rowdy goes down. It would also be nice to have Hiura at DH instead of of paying a veteran like McCutchen this year, who quite honestly I think Hiura would outproduce if he cut down on his strikeouts even slightly.

Respectfully, other than the pedigree of being a former Top 10 pick (and even that is waning given the mediocrity of the 2017 MLB draft class), Hiura has no value. 

You either hit major league pitching or you don't.  But for 2.5 months back in 2019, Hiura hasn't hit major league pitching. Now, nearly 26 years old he's not really a "kid" any more, nor is he "green" with 219 major league games as well as post season at bats under his belt.  

At this point, he's not going to fix his strike out problem in AAA, because there isn't a Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola in AAA.  Looking at his AAA stats, he's already monster against that inferior pitching; he's fooled less often and rips the cover off the ball. 

As for DH'ing instead of McCutchen, Hiura was striking out over 50% of the time. There's no reason to give MLB at bats to a hitter who strikes out half the time, small sample or not. Even if, for the sake of argument, he could somehow cut his strike out percentage down to 35%, his MLB slugging percentage since that magical summer of '19 is a whopping .363. There is no reason to give regular MLB DH at bats to a player with a .363 slugging percentage. As much as I wished he would be the next homegrown middle of the order hitter, I think he's most likely a AAAA player/bust of a pick from a below average draft year. 

I'm sure they could trade him off for another team's enigma, but nobody is going to give anything of value for Hiura especially, since he's currently on a trajectory to be non-tendered in the offseason.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I just can't handle a guy in the lineup that strikes out at a 40% clip. Yeah, yeah, I know, strikeouts don't matter. To me they do. When he is whiffing at that sort of astronomical rate, he's basically a low-average black hole in the lineup. Considering he provides no defensive value, basically his only selling point is that he'll occasionally run into a HR. Unfortunately hitters like that are a dime a dozen. Unless Keston finds the stroke that made him a top draft pick, drastically cuts down on the Ks, and finds the all-fields complete hitter that made him look like a future franchise cornerstone in 2019, he has no future as a Milwaukee Brewer. 

For his career, Hiura is a much better hitter against RHP than LHP.  Even with his bad 2020-2021 numbers, his K rate against RHP is roughly 33%, which is manageable when his OPS against righties is mid-800s.  Against LHP, his career K rate jumps to 37% and his OPS plummets to sub-600.  Ideally he gets his K rate in the 25-30% range, but that can be said of a ton of today's hitters in MLB.

Keston's 2019 saw 18 of his 19 HR in the majors come against RHP, an astounding reverse split.  Even that year at times he struggled with hitting the fastball - the all-fields aspect of Hiura's hitting seems to correlate to taking offspeed from righties that is breaking away from him to right center with authority.  For whatever reason, he doesn't seem to be able to handle offspeed from lefties breaking towards him. 

Getting Hiura consistent MLB ABs would be much easier if he could hit left-handed pitching - he's still young enough to develop that, but it's on him to do so if he wants a long MLB career.  I think he's going to get an extended run in Milwaukee at some point this year, and how he performs during that stretch will determine if they view him as their DH for 2023 or if Hiura's traded in the offseason.

 

[Outlander]

Hiura continues to have reverse splits but the Brewers seem to want to ignore it. His career OPS against RHP is still 837 and over 900 in a very small sample last year. You can't play a guy that is going to strike out 50% of the time but yeah I have no doubt Hiura would outproduce McCutchen against RHP. That might be more that McCutchen can't hit RHP and a bad signing to be an everyday DH, but still a better option if Hiura cuts down on his strikeouts.

[monty57]

51 minutes ago, Outlander said:

Hiura continues to have reverse splits but the Brewers seem to want to ignore it. His career OPS against RHP is still 837 and over 900 in a very small sample last year. You can't play a guy that is going to strike out 50% of the time but yeah I have no doubt Hiura would outproduce McCutchen against RHP. That might be more that McCutchen can't hit RHP and a bad signing to be an everyday DH, but still a better option if Hiura cuts down on his strikeouts.

Yeah, for a team that seems to be heavily into stats, and one that likes the concept of platooning players, Counsell can't seem to figure out the concept of splits / reverse splits. I really like Counsell, this is probably my only real pet peeve with him.

So far this year, McCutchen has a .695 OPS / 91 wRC+ vs LHP and .619 OPS / 79 wRC+ vs RHP. He hasn't hit RHP in years, so he should be taken off the "everyday DH" role. Hiura has very limited PAs, but he had a .399 OPS / 18 wRC+ vs LHP (18 PAs) and a .925 OPS / 160 wRC+ vs RHP (24 PAs) before he was sent down.

Hiura shouldn't hit against LHP, and Cutch shouldn't hit against RHP... seems like they'd be a decent platoon option. Both have their warts, but I guess beggars can't be choosers. 

[stoutdude04]

With a completely healthy lineup it should be Rowdy or Peterson as the DH with the other at first.  As others pointed out, for whatever reason, the Brewers don't or haven't wanted to look at Hiura's reverse split.

[Roderick]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Respectfully, other than the pedigree of being a former Top 10 pick (and even that is waning given the mediocrity of the 2017 MLB draft class), Hiura has no value. 

You either hit major league pitching or you don't.  But for 2.5 months back in 2019, 

Disagree.  He has more than a draft pick to his pedigree.  He hit everywhere in the minors and that was an awesome 2019.  That is enough to hold on to just to see if anything clicks, even paying 1st year arby rates.  If I was the GM of a team rebuilding, I would give some value to acquiring Hiura.   If he figures it out, there would be enormous payout on that trade.

I can see the possibilities that Wong is not brought back at $8M next year ($10M net of buyout)?   If not, then there is a spot for Hiura.

The Brewers aren't going to just cut him loose for nothing.