Reflecting on the Urias/Lauer trade with San Diego

[Soupbone]

After today I say it’s official. The Brewers won that trade. And Urias hasn’t played yet this year. 

[MVP2110]

What a difference a year makes. This has gone from one of Stearns worst trades to one of his best

[BallFour]

Hand up I was big mad near the end of the 2020 pandemic shortened season. Glad at what has happened since.

[LouisEly]

40 minutes ago, Soupbone said:

After today I say it’s official. The Brewers won that trade. And Urias hasn’t played yet this year. 

Going by bWAR and fWAR, the Padres still have a ~2 WAR lead.

[Soupbone]

They might have some kind of war lead right now but they won’t by the end of the year. 

[clancyphile]

If the deal hadn't taken place, the Brewers likely don't sign JBJ in 2021, and Grisham and Taylor end up the 4th and 5th OFs on the 2021 Brewers. Not a bad outfield situation, but the Crew also doesn't have Lauer in the rotation.

On the flip side... Petco Field is nowhere near as hitter-friendly as American Family Field. Perhaps Grisham/Taylor provide what the Crew hoped for from Bradley, etc. And no trade means instead of signing Garcia, perhaps Davies still does well for the Crew (5th starter).

And the Crew still has a couple of good prospects over the long term in Hamilton and Binelas.

Did the trade work out well? Yes, especially if the Crew gets an excellent return for Lauer via trade.

Would not making the have worked out well? I'd say the signs point to yes on that front, too.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

If the deal hadn't taken place, the Brewers likely don't sign JBJ in 2021, and Grisham and Taylor end up the 4th and 5th OFs on the 2021 Brewers. Not a bad outfield situation, but the Crew also doesn't have Lauer in the rotation.

On the flip side... Petco Field is nowhere near as hitter-friendly as American Family Field. Perhaps Grisham/Taylor provide what the Crew hoped for from Bradley, etc. And no trade means instead of signing Garcia, perhaps Davies still does well for the Crew (5th starter).

And the Crew still has a couple of good prospects over the long term in Hamilton and Binelas.

Did the trade work out well? Yes, especially if the Crew gets an excellent return for Lauer via trade.

Would not making the have worked out well? I'd say the signs point to yes on that front, too.

I know he's hurt, but did you forget that Luis Urias was also a part of that trade? He appears to possibly be a cornerstone infield piece for years to come.

[jjfanec]

This trade is looking better and better. Lauer is arguably our number 3 starter right now.  People have tried to downplay his success for a while but since June 27, 2021 (span of 97 innings), Eric Lauer has 99 strikeouts and a 2.23 ERA. That is a good sample size and is top 15 in baseball.

Grisham had a great year a couple years ago and then was decent last year and has been brutal to start this year. He probably turns it around but his first year in San Diego may be the outlier not the norm

 

 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Grisham's best MLB season was actually only 1/3 of a year due to the shortened schedule via COVID.  That also happened to be Davies' best rate season as a starter (pitching in San Diego's home ballpark).  Grisham was decent in 2021 but Davies was awful - and both are now at the point in their careers where they start getting expensive - or in Davies' case pitches himself out of the league if he continues to be bad.

Urias outperformed Grisham in 2021 and Lauer is world's better than Davies at a much more team-friendly salary and with two more years of team control before he reaches free agency.  

This isn't really a debate anymore even with Urias still on the mend, and there's no point to play the 'what if' semantics game involving JBJ, Garcia, and everything else.  The Brewers came out ahead in that trade and the gap will continue to grow over time as Urias and Lauer continue to be key cogs on the Brewers' roster.

 

[SoCalBrewfan]

I realized this is old, but saw this:

Quote

Why are so many so quick to slam hot takes on trades and acquisitions?

My answer to that, though nobody really asked, is that it used to be that bf.net prided itself on thoughtful discussion and not just hot takes.  It was explicitly created as a haven from some other message boards (can't remember whether it was ESPN, JSOnline, or both) that were, bluntly, pools of cess.  Those other boards had so much noise that it was hard to find the signal.  When you see a trade thread for, say, Adames, and there are posts that say what are we doing, never heard of him but this guy's hitting under 200!!?, well, it's just not fun or engaging for some.  It's noise.  See also game threads.  

The thinking at one time was that there are plenty of places on the internet to post WE ROOL CUBS DROOL LMAO, but it was worth fighting to keep this a haven of mostly thoughtful discussion.  Possibly that ship has now sailed, though.  I'm not sure that it's useful to rub poster's noses in their hot takes that haven't aged well, but I also think if you're putting your opinions out there aggressively, you should have skin thick enough to take some expected pushback.

 

[markedman5]

 

[Tbadder]

I just love this follow up. Makes me realize how much I don’t know. And now? I can’t wait to see what they get for Houser or Lauer—could it be another young bat that struggles early and then in a year two makes everyone forget how we (I) grumbled about “that trade.” Good on you Mr. Stearns et al. 

[Soupbone]

Someone should forward that to Rosenthal. 

[Roderick]

On 4/25/2022 at 1:22 PM, markedman5 said:

 

The struggling was all part of the plan to acquire Adames.  

[Lathund]

On 4/25/2022 at 5:40 PM, SoCalBrewfan said:

 I'm not sure that it's useful to rub poster's noses in their hot takes that haven't aged well, but I also think if you're putting your opinions out there aggressively, you should have skin thick enough to take some expected pushback.

 

I think it depends on how spicy hot the take is. The "Numbers have been bad the last few years, I think this could turn out to be a massive overpay and a really bad contract"; then it's not very useful to. The poster was just wrong, even if the analysis was superficial and didn't support those strong statements. But the hot takes that aren't a good faith attempt (albeit poorly executed) at debate? Absolutely. I'm not petty enough to go back and check which posters were genuinely happy that Wade Miley was injured so he wouldn't be put on the ML roster (OK, I totally am that petty. But I won't. This time.), but dumb takes like that should be called out. Especially the hot take merchants who will (repeatedly) bring up the bad takes that somehow came true to pat themselves on the back deserve to have their (far more numerous) terrible ones called out. 

Obviously don't want to take that too far either of course, shouldn't have people afraid to share their views. But in moderation, it could help improve the quality of posts if people stop to think for a second before pressing "Submit". IMO there are better places to post the poorly thought through hot takes or immediate reactions, and plenty of shows and websites and podcasts that cater to the people who want to crucify players based on 15 plate appearances etc. Hoping this place can be better. At times it is, but there's not really more than a handful of posters who seem to see it that way. 

But to bring it back more to the topic of the trade: These things take time to evaluate. After 2020 it looked bad, but it was 2 months of baseball, where both Lauer and Urias missed most of both "pre-seasons". The stance should have been, as it should've been when the trade happened, to wait and see as a lot can change. Which it has. And still might, but at this stage it seems very likely that Lauer + Urias will give the Brewers more than Grisham + 10% (or whatever) of Darvish will going forward. 

[markedman5]

For those with access to The Athletic …….good stuff here

https://theathletic.com/3290026/2022/05/02/brewers-breakout-eric-lauer-turned-his-career-around-by-emulating-pitchers-like-aroldis-chapman-on-a-hunch/

[Eye Black]

The Lauer ascension is yet another example of how starting pitching development almost always takes time. The Brewers have had several pitchers struggle at some point early in their career as starters before becoming more reliably successful as they gained experience. That previously was the case with Jimmy Nelson, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes, and Adrian Houser. The thing I’ve learned is that if the Brewers pitching development staff believes in a starter I probably should also. 

[markedman5]

Remember when we couldn’t develop a starting pitching prospect to save our lives? 
 

Seems like a long time ago……..

[nate82]

42 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Remember when we couldn’t develop a starting pitching prospect to save our lives? 
 

Seems like a long time ago……..

There was definitely a gap between Gallardo to Nelson and an even bigger one between Sheets to Gallardo though some of that was due to injuries.  Then a small gap between Nelson and Woodruff.  I think the philosophy changed a bit after Melvin left and Stearns took over.  I think the Brewers during Melvin's tenure looked at taller and bigger fastball pitchers and Stearns looks more for guys who already have command and who could possibly add some MPH and spin rate to their pitches.  

Also apparently the old saying of you can't teach power for pitchers was wrong.  A lot of the players Stearns has drafted have either added MPH or have added spin rates which makes the pitches look faster than they are.  The only downside currently to Stearns is the lack of international pitching prospects but that looks to be improving now also.  

[rickh150]

Urias made that catch, btw.

[SRB]

Not to toot my own horn, but I never understood the immediate panic over the trade. Lauer had already put up a >2 fWAR season and was a young lefty SP with more team control and upside than Davies. Urias was a genuinely elite prospect (having recently been ranked top 25 in all of baseball) who had just torn up minor league pitching and who the Padres were selling low on after a rough MLB debut because they needed a CF and did not need a SS.

Of course it is going even better than expected. I thought Lauer would be a solid #5/6 and did not foresee his breakout with added velocity, and I thought Urias would be a capable starting SS rather than having grown enough as a hitter to be our starting 3B.