Will the (likely) deader ball and humidors hurt Urias?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I know we're all relying on Urias to come back and be something close to his 2021 self - the Brewers offense kind of needs it - but is this a reasonable expectation? 2021 was his breakout season and almost all of that value was derived from extra base hits, particularly home runs.

Standard Batting

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2018	21	SDP	NL	12	53	48	5	10	1	0	2	5	1	0	3	10	.208	.264	.354	.618	71	17	0	1	0	1	0	4
2019	22	SDP	NL	71	249	215	27	48	8	1	4	24	0	1	25	56	.223	.329	.326	.655	77	70	8	9	0	0	0	64/H5
2020	23	MIL	NL	41	120	109	11	26	4	1	0	11	2	2	10	32	.239	.308	.294	.602	63	32	4	1	0	0	0	54/6H
2021	24	MIL	NL	150	570	490	77	122	25	1	23	75	5	1	63	116	.249	.345	.445	.789	111	218	9	10	1	3	3	564H
4 Yrs				274	992	862	120	206	38	3	29	115	8	4	101	214	.239	.332	.391	.723	94	337	21	21	1	4	3
162 Game Avg.				162	587	510	71	122	22	2	17	68	5	2	60	127	.239	.332	.391	.723	94	199	12	12	1	2	2
SDP (2 yrs)				83	302	263	32	58	9	1	6	29	1	1	28	66	.221	.318	.331	.649	76	87	8	10	0	1	0
MIL (2 yrs)				191	690	599	88	148	29	2	23	86	7	3	73	148	.247	.338	.417	.756	102	250	13	11	1	3	3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/3/2022.

Except home runs are way down, currently at 0.90 per game after being over 1.0 every season since 2015 and over 1.2 per game the past three seasons. Obviously, people tend to overrate home run fluctuations in early season cold weather but I think it's pretty conclusive MLB did something to the ball, the humidors had a much larger effect than expected, or both.

What is a reasonable expectation for Urias? I'm very skeptical 20+ homers is fair, even if you adjust for time missed.

[stoutdude04]

Saw a stat that balls are traveling like 10 feet shorter, so I would guess...yes.  I for one, would love if MLB would just messing around with the ball to try and get their desired result.

[brewerfan82]

Good points in tempering expectations on his numbers. That said, as long as he's better relative to the league compared to the 60 wRC+ our 3B have produced so far (and he's been a 92 wRC+ player since 2019) I'll be pretty happy. Though, your point still stands that the deadened ball may hurt him more than others meaning his wRC+ may drop as well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

38 minutes ago, stoutdude04 said:

Saw a stat that balls are traveling like 10 feet shorter, so I would guess...yes.  I for one, would love if MLB would just messing around with the ball to try and get their desired result.

I think the answer is staring MLB in the face but, in typical MLB fashion, they won't do it.

1. Ban all sticky substances and pre-tack the ball.

2. Decide what kind of ball you want - aim for neutral - make the necessary changes, then do not change it again.

3. Control flyball characteristics using the humidors. This should be a very trackable and reliable way to alter the ball in very small ways season-to-season, all without having pitchers complain that it feels different to the touch, the seams are too raised, or whatever. No one is going to throw a fit if balls are 4% more humid from one year to the next.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm honestly not so sure about him hitting less HR. I was looking at his statcast data from last year and exit velocities on HR this year. Last year Urias hit almost all his HR at least 380 feet, many over 400 feet...and the vast majority were the left/left center and cleared the fence by at least 30 feet. Maybe 2 of his HR last year wouldn't have been HR this year. Beyond the park factors, Urias is going to be a little bit stronger, and hopefully a fair amount better than he was last year. Also remember he started very slow last season. High OBP early but his hits weren't falling in. 10 of his 23 HR came in Aug/Sept. If he's playing at the same level or better than last year, i think low 20s is a fair expectation/hope for Urias.

[Fear The Chorizo]

52 minutes ago, stoutdude04 said:

Saw a stat that balls are traveling like 10 feet shorter, so I would guess...yes.  I for one, would love if MLB would just messing around with the ball to try and get their desired result.

Is that 10 feet less on average compared to the 2021 season-long average, or 10 feet less from last April?  

There are still baseballs being crushed 450+ feet on a nightly basis, and this spring has seemingly been much cooler/damper across most of the country - particularly in the midwest and northeast.  My gas bill just told me it was 9 degrees colder on average this April compared to last.

I for one just wish MLB would do away with all the tinkering - ban sticky substances and pretack the balls uniformly, and with the exception of Colorado throw them all in a few buckets on gameday and care less about humidity levels.  That naturally fluctuates with the seasons anyway and would probably be pretty negligible in terms of impact to the games if MLB would just stop messing with how the baseballs are constructed in the first place.

[Underachiever]

Most of the discussion I have seen on the humidors and baseballs has focused on the batted side. Have any pitchers weighed in on the difference in the balls? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Most of the discussion I have seen on the humidors and baseballs has focused on the batted side. Have any pitchers weighed in on the difference in the balls? 

I haven't heard anything. I kinda suspect the difference is nearly unnoticeable, especially when the weather is terrible and there's a six month gap between using last year's ball and this year's ball.

Are the humidors installed in Cactus and Grapefruit league parks? I never thought about that until now.

[stoutdude04]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Is that 10 feet less on average compared to the 2021 season-long average, or 10 feet less from last April?  

There are still baseballs being crushed 450+ feet on a nightly basis, and this spring has seemingly been much cooler/damper across most of the country - particularly in the midwest and northeast.  My gas bill just told me it was 9 degrees colder on average this April compared to last.

I for one just wish MLB would do away with all the tinkering - ban sticky substances and pretack the balls uniformly, and with the exception of Colorado throw them all in a few buckets on gameday and care less about humidity levels.  That naturally fluctuates with the seasons anyway and would probably be pretty negligible in terms of impact to the games if MLB would just stop messing with how the baseballs are constructed in the first place.

Great question - it was all season.  They showed balls hit at the same EV and launch angle to compare.

I agree.  One thing I liked that Harper said during that Sunday night game was - he liked how each stadium played differently.  I mean, they are all designed differently, so they should play that way too.

[stoutdude04]

1 hour ago, Underachiever said:

Most of the discussion I have seen on the humidors and baseballs has focused on the batted side. Have any pitchers weighed in on the difference in the balls? 

Yes actually, Bassitt from the Mets just came out the other day and said every pitcher knows they are garbage and MLB doesn't care.  This was after the Cards series(I think) and some Mets players have been hit in the head.  

[brewerfan82]

12 minutes ago, stoutdude04 said:

Yes actually, Bassitt from the Mets just came out the other day and said every pitcher knows they are garbage and MLB doesn't care.  This was after the Cards series(I think) and some Mets players have been hit in the head.  

Interesting. He seems to be weighing in more on that they're hard to grip (or that they're different in some other way inning to inning causing pitches to be wild). Not sure if that has much to do with the humidors, the quality of ball, or is more of a reflection on just wanting some way to add tackiness to them one way or another.

 

[KeithStone53151]

I really have a problem with pitchers using this as an argument to allow for sticky substances. There should be more focus on their part on controlling the baseball and not hitting guys. Their only focus is maximizing the spin/velocity/etc, and then blame the baseball when an errant throw hits somebody. Such a poor argument.

[Brewcrew82]

Honestly, were things really all that bad in 2018-2020, before the sticky stuff ban and the introduction of the deadened baseballs? Sure, pitchers had an advantage in being able to better grip the ball and increase its movement and spin-rate, but it was pretty much negated by the fact that when hitters made contact, the ball was going to travel further. I say, let's just go back to how things were before, and then next year, go ahead and ban the shift....

[jerichoholicninja]

Wouldn't the dead ball hurt Urias pretty much the same as it has every other hitter?

[stoutdude04]

50 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I really have a problem with pitchers using this as an argument to allow for sticky substances. There should be more focus on their part on controlling the baseball and not hitting guys. Their only focus is maximizing the spin/velocity/etc, and then blame the baseball when an errant throw hits somebody. Such a poor argument.

I didn't think that's what he was talking about, but I may be wrong.  I think most pitchers have gotten past the sticky issue and just want a ball that they can grip and doesnt change from day to day or even batter to batter.  You may be correct though, he may be hinting at sticky substances.

[Opening Day]

Im not sure why Urias would be affected more than anyone else, everyone is hitting the same ball.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, Opening Day said:

Im not sure why Urias would be affected more than anyone else, everyone is hitting the same ball.  

Because almost all of his gains last season came via increased slugging. His launch angle was at a career high but his hard hit % was mediocre and his average exit velocity was actually pretty bad.

That's a potential combination for a lot of warning track flyballs that were home runs last season.

[owbc]

I think the umpires are more to blame for the lack of offense than the new baseball. I like the new baseball. It's reducing opposite-field HR by non-power hitters which is a desirable result. 

I have no doubt that a robotic strike zone would increase offense. Hitters know what the strike zone is and they will lay off pitches outside of the zone if there is no risk of them being called a strike. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

I think the umpires are more to blame for the lack of offense than the new baseball. I like the new baseball. It's reducing opposite-field HR by non-power hitters which is a desirable result. 

I have no doubt that a robotic strike zone would increase offense. Hitters know what the strike zone is and they will lay off pitches outside of the zone if there is no risk of them being called a strike. 

I have no problem with the baseball in itself but if MLB was going to deaden the ball, they kinda needed to add the pitch clock at the same time so mitigate pitchers having an even larger advantage with velocity AND a dead ball.

Or done something else to slow down the max effort and velocity of pitching, I just happen to goeice the pitch clock is the first move to make in that regard. 

[homer]

I think some guys would be hurt more than others if they are hitting a bunch of wall scrapers. I feel like Fangraphs used to track how many "just made it" home runs a guy would hit one year and use that to predict power the next year. Anyway, here's a graph of where all his "long" hits went mapped against the Miller Park/AmFam dimensions:

[owbc]

21 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I have no problem with the baseball in itself but if MLB was going to deaden the ball, they kinda needed to add the pitch clock at the same time so mitigate pitchers having an even larger advantage with velocity AND a dead ball.

Or done something else to slow down the max effort and velocity of pitching, I just happen to goeice the pitch clock is the first move to make in that regard. 

Strongly agree. MLB clearly has too much power over the baseball, changes should have to be approved through the same channels that approve other rule changes.