What to do with Brandon Woodruff?

[igor67]

I think from a win now and a win later perspective Woodruff makes the most sense to deal and in the offseason. As it stands right now without Woodruff you could put Ashby in the rotation in his place and slide Small into Ashby's hybrid role and expect very little drop off. With the number of OF prospects and Turang, you could legitimately sit back and try and trade for BPA's available when it comes to prospects. The depth across the board makes it easier to keep looking for the big value player and not have to fill a hole (a very big benefit suddenly from that focus on flexibility with players). That in turn makes it more likely we can keep things going well even after 2023. A few years ago I would have looked at this very differently and only seen the coming departure of this glorious rotation, but I can see paths to staying very competitive by cycling through talent.

[jay87shot]

The hard part is that offense is down league wide so getting a team to trade a good offensive bat is tough. Also looking at future finances makes predicting future financial decision really difficult. If Burnes stays at a Cy Young Candidate level he will be set to make at least 30 million in free agency. I actually think it might make more sense to trade one of Houser, Lauer, Ashby, or Small and then trade Burnes in 2 years when he has a year of control left. Looking at what our key guys might make in when they hit free agency is key.

Hader $20 mill, Woody $20-30 mill, Burnes $30+ mill, Adames $15-20, Houser/Lauer $10-20 depending on consistency, Rowdy ????. That leaves out Narvaez, Wong, Renfroe, and Suter. Paying Yeli and Peralta around 35 million down the road really only leaves about $50 million in long term expenses flexibility because by that time some of our younger guys will be making better money on arb. 

If I were in charge I would keep Woody this year and trade Houser for a bat. Then trade Hader this offseason and Burnes or Woody in 2 years. Hence paying Woodruff/Burnes and Adames long term and leaving money for Lauer or Rowdy potentially.

I would expect that Stearns is trying to sign some of these guys to more team friendly deals like Peralta but really I can't foresee any deals that help with future clarity.

 

 

 

 

[StearnsFTW]

I'll be very surprised if all 7 of the guys mentioned in this thread are Brewers next opening day.  Woodruff being dealt wouldn't surprise me either as he's the most expensive and has the least control.

I would be very OK with dealing him for the right package in an effort to extend the window past '24 when we lose Burnes, which I feel is completely inevitable.

 

[Roderick]

On 5/4/2022 at 11:01 AM, Brewcrew82 said:

No trading Burnes. Woodruff maybe, but not Burnes. The guy is probably the best pitcher in baseball right now given DeGrom's continued injury woes. You just don't trade a guy like that with multiple years of control remaining if you're trying to contend. Even when Chris Sale was traded, the White Sox were in complete tear-down mode. 

And everyone knows that Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball right now.  Hence, you would get better than full value for him, as he will be the face of the franchise for marketing.  Trading with two years left just gives you that much more surplus to get back in a trade and brings more potential trading partners into negotiations. 

So you would still have Woodruff, Lauer, Peralta, Houser, Ashby, and Small for the rotation in 2023.  Plus the haul for Burnes more than likely would have at least one prized starting pitcher practically ready for the majors.

I'm not saying it would be my first choice, but I would definitely not rule out talking to people about what package they would send us for any of Burnes/Woodruff/Lauer/Houser during the offseason.

[Brewcrew82]

36 minutes ago, Roderick said:

And everyone knows that Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball right now.  Hence, you would get better than full value for him, as he will be the face of the franchise for marketing.  Trading with two years left just gives you that much more surplus to get back in a trade and brings more potential trading partners into negotiations. 

So you would still have Woodruff, Lauer, Peralta, Houser, Ashby, and Small for the rotation in 2023.  Plus the haul for Burnes more than likely would have at least one prized starting pitcher practically ready for the majors.

I'm not saying it would be my first choice, but I would definitely not rule out talking to people about what package they would send us for any of Burnes/Woodruff/Lauer/Houser during the offseason.

I guess I just don't see it happening. Maybe if we're to the last year on his deal, and all efforts to extend him have failed (which haven't even started yet from the comments of him and Attanasio/Stearns). But there's just no precedent for trading a top 3 pitcher in the midst of a prime competitive window. I get that we have to do things differently given that we're a small market, however, Burnes is the last guy on this team that I'd consider trading at this point in time. 

[brewerfan82]

Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, and Houser all become free agents after 2024. And then you have Peralta. Ashby, and Small through at least 2026.

I think you need to get back something for the guys that you can't sign longterm, but I think it could be pretty devastating trading four of those in the same offseason. I would try to sign Lauer to a nice, small-ish extension (he seems to be in just the right success/age region to maybe get him to sign something reasonable). And then spread out the trades/losses of the other three. Maybe see if Houser can get a bat or two to help out with the offense immediately, then listen to trade offers for Woodruff this offseason and Burnes the next offseason, hoping to get back high end pitching talent to replenish the starting rotation sooner than later.

Of course, that all requires the right hauls in return and for the current in-house options to be pitching with enough success to absorb each loss. But if everything goes well, this could be the beginning of a nice cycle of talent insurgence while staying within the organization's budget constraints.

[young guns]

1 hour ago, brewerfan82 said:

Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, and Houser all become free agents in 2024. And then you have Peralta. Ashby, and Small through at least 2026.

I think it could be pretty devastating trading four of those in the same offseason.

Thanks, now I'm depressed

[Oxy]

 

10 hours ago, young guns said:

Thanks, now I'm depressed

Why can't I quote 2 posts?  It's just easier to see the context of a reply.

Anyways, to be clear-- Burnes, Woody, Lauer and Houser are FA AFTER the 2024 season.

Also, Blake Snell was a Cy Young winner traded in his prime.

 

[young guns]

17 hours ago, young guns said:

Thanks, now I'm depressed

 

6 hours ago, Oxy said:

 

Why can't I quote 2 posts?  It's just easier to see the context of a reply.

Anyways, to be clear-- Burnes, Woody, Lauer and Houser are FA AFTER the 2024 season.

Also, Blake Snell was a Cy Young winner traded in his prime.

 

You can, that's what the plus sign is for.  Just the thought of potentially losing 4/5 or 4/6 of this rotation in the same year sucks.  I'm sure there will be some extensions signed and trades made, but if nothing is done that will be one sucky off season.

[nate82]

If the Brewers do trade a starter it will probably be this off season and it maybe perfect timing.  The Tigers and the Rangers went on spending spree this off season and both need starting pitching especially the Rangers.  Will the Rangers give up their top prospects for Woodruff or Burnes?  I am not sure they will but I have already posted what I think a Rangers and Brewers trade would look like for Woodruff.  I don't believe the Rangers have the prospects to get Burnes.  

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers trade Houser.  I still believe Houser is a solid #3 or #4 pitcher.  I think a trade to the Angels or Mariners makes the most sense here.  The ballparks play into what Houser is as a pitcher and both teams need to fill in the middle of their rotation.  The Brewers won't get back as good of a return for Houser but someone like a Gallo (value wise) should be coming back in the trade.

[sveumrules]

Woody came up today at FanGraphs in Dan Szymborski's article looking at which young players might be next in line for contract extensions...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/more-young-players-who-should-be-next-to-sign-long-term-deals/

Looks like his computer suggests 6 years for 131 million with a projection for about 20.5 WAR over those six seasons.

[Jopal78]

The play on the field will most likely dictate how intact they keep their roster of players. In all probability, Stearns will leave after the 2023 season so its almost a certainty they won't make big changes to their roster before then. If they fall off the pace in 2024 they probably will trade players away before losing them for nothing. 

However, with a franchise known mostly for futility getting its first taste of consistent success in a generation, I doubt they would cry poor, raise the white flag and bust up their pitching unless they are an also-ran.

It's far easier to win with a pitching and defense team looking to catch lightning in a bottle offensively, than it is with murderers row and a bunch of pitchers with ERAs of 4.50. 

[Madhawk23]

On 5/2/2022 at 11:05 AM, nate82 said:

I am not sure if you have looked at the Brewers prospects but most of them are OF's and two are very close to contributing for the Brewers in Wiemer and Mitchell who are both in AA this year and should be in AAA at some point this year.  Depending on the prospect AAA is usually just a holding place for players until the super 2 status can be avoided.  

Basically at some point next year Wiemer and Mitchell should be playing for the Brewers if everything goes right this year for them.  Assuming no injuries or them taking a step back in their development Mitchell and Wiemer should be playing for the Brewers in 2023 at some point.  I wouldn't be surprised to see both in the major league camp in spring training next year and possibly one making the team out of spring training.  

If the Brewers do trade Woodruff after this season it will be for prospects and not MLB players.  The most recent example of a trade like this was the Sale trade.  So something like this from the Tigers:

Brewers get:

Greene, Jobe, Dingler and Kreidler

Tigers get:

Woodruff

Another possible prospect trade would be with the Rangers.

Brewers get: 

Leiter, Jung, Smith, Acuna and Zavala

Rangers get:

Woodruff.  

Boy, if we could get either of those deals from the Tigers or Rangers this offseason, I think you HAVE to move Woody.  As has already been outlined in this thread, you have little to no chance at signing either Woody or Burnes long term, so I think it's imperative that we move one of them this offseason to get as much trade value as we possibly can from them.  Yes, it would hurt to lose one of our "big two" arms, but as we all know - we do have good SP depth right now with our major league staff.  

We could still roll out a rotation next year of Burnes, Freddy, Lauer, Houser and Ashby - with Small in the role that Ashby has been in this year.  

Then, if you make that deal with the Rangers, you'd potentially have Leiter waiting in the wings to jump into one of those rotation spots.  Jobe (deal with Tigers) would be further away from being a big league pitcher, so making that trade with them would scare me just a bit more.  But, if DS and Co. like Jobe's upside better than Leiter - then maybe that is the better route to take?

This still seems like a lot though to me for either the Tigers and Rangers to give up from their farm system.  

[Madhawk23]

I just looked at the rosters of both the Rangers and Tigers further, and I just don't see any way that we'd be able to get either Green from the Tigers or Jung from the Rangers.  The Tigers have serious holes in their OF right now, and Green is one of the very top prospects in all of MLB, so very doubtful they would move him this winter for Woody.  And, the Rangers appear to have a big hole at 3B as well, and I would guess that Jung would get the callup to man that spot for them very soon here this season.  I think we'd have to look at prospects further away from MLB in both of these systems, and I'm guessing that won't really fit our "win now" focus either - so might be hard to swing a fair trade with either of these teams? 

[nate82]

2 hours ago, Madhawk23 said:

I just looked at the rosters of both the Rangers and Tigers further, and I just don't see any way that we'd be able to get either Green from the Tigers or Jung from the Rangers.  The Tigers have serious holes in their OF right now, and Green is one of the very top prospects in all of MLB, so very doubtful they would move him this winter for Woody.  And, the Rangers appear to have a big hole at 3B as well, and I would guess that Jung would get the callup to man that spot for them very soon here this season.  I think we'd have to look at prospects further away from MLB in both of these systems, and I'm guessing that won't really fit our "win now" focus either - so might be hard to swing a fair trade with either of these teams? 

These were the only two teams I could find where a Sale like trade scenario made sense.  All of the other teams were either farther away from contending or didn't have the prospects to make a deal.  The Tigers one would be difficult and I don't think they make that trade.  The Rangers one while they have a hole at 3B I think their holes in their rotation are far bigger than at 3B.  They could add a veteran in free agency or go with a platoon there if they had to.  

At starting pitching the Rangers are very thin and need someone to step in to be that #1 guy on that pitching staff.  So they are going to have to give up something in order to get that.  This is very similar to the situation that the Brewers were in when they traded for Greinke.  They had a huge hole at SS after that trade.  Trading for pitching is always expensive and the team acquiring the pitching needs to weigh the cost with the benefits.  

I believe the Rangers will do anything to improve their rotation which would mean trading a few key assets away even if it makes them weaker at one position.  

[Madhawk23]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

These were the only two teams I could find where a Sale like trade scenario made sense.  All of the other teams were either farther away from contending or didn't have the prospects to make a deal.  The Tigers one would be difficult and I don't think they make that trade.  The Rangers one while they have a hole at 3B I think their holes in their rotation are far bigger than at 3B.  They could add a veteran in free agency or go with a platoon there if they had to.  

At starting pitching the Rangers are very thin and need someone to step in to be that #1 guy on that pitching staff.  So they are going to have to give up something in order to get that.  This is very similar to the situation that the Brewers were in when they traded for Greinke.  They had a huge hole at SS after that trade.  Trading for pitching is always expensive and the team acquiring the pitching needs to weigh the cost with the benefits.  

I believe the Rangers will do anything to improve their rotation which would mean trading a few key assets away even if it makes them weaker at one position.  

Oh, absolutely!  I agree with you in picking out these two AL teams that very well could be desperate enough to give up "the farm" for two years of a #1 type SP like Woodruff this winter.  I think both the Tigers and Rangers could be in a position to make a big move like this, especially if they both continue to struggle this year and miss the playoffs.  I just thought I would look at their current rosters to see if they could make a trade like you suggested from positions of depth in their organization - and unfortunately at appeared that neither could at those two positions (OF for Tigers and 3B for Rangers).  Like you said though, top-end starting pitching is much more difficult to find than help in the OF or at 3B, and both of those organizations aren't afraid to spend $$ in free agency - so they could more easily fill those positions going that route.  

[brewmann04]

I think you have to keep Corbin at this point and move Woody you can't keep them both IMO. I sure David will put out feelers out to see what teams will be willing to give up. what good is Cain contract  is over and i believe wong too.

[DR28]

My god, if we could get Josh Jung for Woody, sign me up right now... I'm more than fine moving him as we'll still have Burnes, Peralta, Ashby and Lauer in our rotation... Good luck matching that top 4 any team in MLB!

But getting Jung, holy damn!! Can you imagine a infield of Tellez, Urias, Adames, Jung... OMG I want that!!

[DR28]

On 5/31/2022 at 7:39 PM, brewmann04 said:

I think you have to keep Corbin at this point and move Woody you can't keep them both IMO. I sure David will put out feelers out to see what teams will be willing to give up. what good is Cain contract  is over and i believe wong too.

I believe Wong has option for 3rd year... Cant remember if it's team or player tho.

[wallus]

On 6/16/2022 at 8:53 AM, DR28 said:

My god, if we could get Josh Jung for Woody, sign me up right now... I'm more than fine moving him as we'll still have Burnes, Peralta, Ashby and Lauer in our rotation... Good luck matching that top 4 any team in MLB!

But getting Jung, holy damn!! Can you imagine a infield of Tellez, Urias, Adames, Jung... OMG I want that!!

He would seem like a good target for us. I am pretty sure Wong has a team option for next season.

[nate82]

The third year for Wong is a team option with a $2m buyout.  The buyout is probably a 100% going to happen as Wong’s 3rd year option is at $10m.  I fully expect Turang or Peterson to be the starting 2B in 2023.  

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

40 minutes ago, nate82 said:

The third year for Wong is a team option with a $2m buyout.  The buyout is probably a 100% going to happen as Wong’s 3rd year option is at $10m.  I fully expect Turang or Peterson to be the starting 2B in 2023.  

Wouldn't surprise me in the least if we see "2B Urias" in this team's lineup for the next 5-6 years either.

[nate82]

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Wouldn't surprise me in the least if we see "2B Urias" in this team's lineup for the next 5-6 years either.

Unless the Brewers trade for a 3B like in my proposed Rangers deal.  I think Urias is the 3B and is more than likely the starting 3B in 2023.

I am not against home being the 2B, I just see Turang and Peterson as the more likely options for 2023.

[DR28]

6 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Wouldn't surprise me in the least if we see "2B Urias" in this team's lineup for the next 5-6 years either.

That would be ideal to me.... Just dont know which 3B we can acquire to move Luis to 2B.

I highly doubt Rangers will trade Jung... And no idea who is FA 3B in our price range this winter.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

12 hours ago, DR28 said:

That would be ideal to me.... Just dont know which 3B we can acquire to move Luis to 2B.

I highly doubt Rangers will trade Jung... And no idea who is FA 3B in our price range this winter.

It's a pretty sorry list. Arenado has a player option, and Justin Turner and Evan Longoria have a club options. Then you're looking at guys like Jonathan Villar and Joey Wendle in the next tier. Maybe they could convince Didi Gregorius or Adam Frazier to play 3B? Joey Gallo is a better OF than a 3B, but he'd be another possibility.