What to do with Brandon Woodruff?

[SRB]

The Red Sox would never trade Devers for a couple years of Woodruff. Those kinds of awards-caliber player swaps do not happen (has such a trade ever happened?) because you only want an elite player if you are trying to compete, and if you are trying to compete you do not want to give up one of the elite players you already have.

We could get some elite prospects for Woodruff, but that's too much of a risk when we are extremely competitive this year with a pitching-forward team. Weakening our pitching staff to get a slightly-above-average team offense is a bad strategy imo.

[brewers888]

The only way the Brewers would move Woodruff is if we are getting a star position player with a ton of time before they hit free agency. I think the Brewers probably have approached Woodruff, Burnes, and Hader about long term contract extensions and have been rebuffed by all three. Out of the three you have to think Woodruff is the only signable guy.

Being a small market team with a limited payroll makes it imperative that we get pitchers like this signed long term or trade them before they reach free agency. This team just can’t afford to lose big time assets without getting anything in return so all three of these pitchers will probably get moved at some point though I think we may be able to convince Woodruff to sign long term.

[brewers888]

You have to think Woodruff is the only signable one out of the three top guys. Burnes is probably a 35 million a year pitcher which we obviously can’t pay. Really makes you wonder what the point of the lockout was when nothing really changed for small markets.

[brewmann04]

I think it be Burns as the keeper 

[rickh150]

Arby keeps getting more expensive and is going to leave a major mark in 2023. In what, a year, it’s going to run another 30 to 40 million, ballpark. Granted, we lose Cain, McCutch, and Renfroe.  A must is to add a couple starting OF pieces FA if we choose not to trade and try to compete…running roughly what we are losing in salary.  

A major trade or two almost needs to be done by the start of 2023 because of it so we do not have to overspend for OF free agents.  Arby eligible guys include Hader, Burnes, Woody, Adames, Urias, Telles, Houser, Williams, Lauer, Hiura… avg increase of 3 to 4 million each in 2023?  A trade of a SP for young OF or two makes a lot of cents this offseason to balance roster and the books.

Then again, this is assuming MA doesn’t want a payroll in the 150 to 160 million range.

[jw5511986]

I'm desperate to sign Corbin long term, if that means we trade Woody now to access some high end hitting talent, then I'm good with that.

[rickh150]

40 minutes ago, jw5511986 said:

I'm desperate to sign Corbin long term, if that means we trade Woody now to access some high end hitting talent, then I'm good with that.

I am against signing ANY SP long term (5 years plus). Way too risky. Yelich is on the books for a long while too.

[Jopal78]

17 hours ago, brewers888 said:

You have to think Woodruff is the only signable one out of the three top guys. Burnes is probably a 35 million a year pitcher which we obviously can’t pay. Really makes you wonder what the point of the lockout was when nothing really changed for small markets.

Marcus Stroman got 3 years 71 million dollars from the Cubs.

Kevin Gausman got 5 years 110 million dollars from the Blue Jays

Robbie Ray got 5 years 115 million dollars from the Mariners

 

I'm sure if the Brewers wanted to pay market rate ($23+ million per season) they could sign Woodruff to an extension tomorrow. If they wanted to pay 30+ million per season for Burnes they could probably get him to sign an extension. Problem is they are never going to pay market rate for a starting pitcher. Most likely they will ride these guys until they're out of team control and then trade them at the deadline or let them walk, depending on where they are in the standings at the time. 

[brewers888]

29 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Marcus Stroman got 3 years 71 million dollars from the Cubs.

Kevin Gausman got 5 years 110 million dollars from the Blue Jays

Robbie Ray got 5 years 115 million dollars from the Mariners

 

I'm sure if the Brewers wanted to pay market rate ($23+ million per season) they could sign Woodruff to an extension tomorrow. If they wanted to pay 30+ million per season for Burnes they could probably get him to sign an extension. Problem is they are never going to pay market rate for a starting pitcher. Most likely they will ride these guys until they're out of team control and then trade them at the deadline or let them walk, depending on where they are in the standings at the time. 

Losing guys like Burnes and Woodruff to free agency without trading them and replenishing the farm is how you go from a consistent 90 win team to a bottom feeder. Really hope we don't ride these pitchers into free agency and get nothing back.

What a shame that the system sucks for teams like the Brewers where we have no shot at retaining these awesome pitchers.

[nate82]

12 hours ago, rickh150 said:

A major trade or two almost needs to be done by the start of 2023 because of it so we do not have to overspend for OF free agents.  Arby eligible guys include Hader, Burnes, Woody, Adames, Urias, Telles, Houser, Williams, Lauer, Hiura… avg increase of 3 to 4 million each in 2023?  A trade of a SP for young OF or two makes a lot of cents this offseason to balance roster and the books.

I am not sure if you have looked at the Brewers prospects but most of them are OF's and two are very close to contributing for the Brewers in Wiemer and Mitchell who are both in AA this year and should be in AAA at some point this year.  Depending on the prospect AAA is usually just a holding place for players until the super 2 status can be avoided.  

Basically at some point next year Wiemer and Mitchell should be playing for the Brewers if everything goes right this year for them.  Assuming no injuries or them taking a step back in their development Mitchell and Wiemer should be playing for the Brewers in 2023 at some point.  I wouldn't be surprised to see both in the major league camp in spring training next year and possibly one making the team out of spring training.  

If the Brewers do trade Woodruff after this season it will be for prospects and not MLB players.  The most recent example of a trade like this was the Sale trade.  So something like this from the Tigers:

Brewers get:

Greene, Jobe, Dingler and Kreidler

Tigers get:

Woodruff

Another possible prospect trade would be with the Rangers.

Brewers get: 

Leiter, Jung, Smith, Acuna and Zavala

Rangers get:

Woodruff.  

[Brewcrew82]

On 5/1/2022 at 11:37 AM, SRB said:

The Red Sox would never trade Devers for a couple years of Woodruff. Those kinds of awards-caliber player swaps do not happen (has such a trade ever happened?) because you only want an elite player if you are trying to compete, and if you are trying to compete you do not want to give up one of the elite players you already have.

We could get some elite prospects for Woodruff, but that's too much of a risk when we are extremely competitive this year with a pitching-forward team. Weakening our pitching staff to get a slightly-above-average team offense is a bad strategy imo.

You do realize that Devers has even less team control than Woodruff, right? So, it should really be the other way around, and that doesn't even take into consideration the fact that elite starters tend to be a more prized commodity on the trade market, simply because there are so few of them. Like others have mentioned, just look at what the White Sox got for Sale...Though, I agree with you in that it would be asinine to move Woodruff in-season.

[GAME05]

Burnes may well be the most sensible of the SPs to trade. Mid-market teams just aren't in the position of being able to keep guys who will eventually walk. At least a 31 y/o Woodruff is within the realm of possibility to re-sign.

I hate having to be a feeder team to bigger clubs.

[Brewcrew82]

13 hours ago, rickh150 said:

I am against signing ANY SP long term (5 years plus). Way too risky. Yelich is on the books for a long while too.

Generally, I would agree with you, but Burnes is looking like an all-time talent these days, and he's still fairly young (27). Another thing to consider is how well elite starting pitchers are aging, with Verlander, Scherzer, and DeGrom the clearest examples. And he's not a guy that's reliant on overwhelming velocity either. I would extend him above any of our other players in a heartbeat. 

[rickh150]

10 hours ago, nate82 said:

I am not sure if you have looked at the Brewers prospects but most of them are OF's and two are very close to contributing for the Brewers in Wiemer and Mitchell who are both in AA this year and should be in AAA at some point this year.  Depending on the prospect AAA is usually just a holding place for players until the super 2 status can be avoided.  

Basically at some point next year Wiemer and Mitchell should be playing for the Brewers if everything goes right this year for them.  Assuming no injuries or them taking a step back in their development Mitchell and Wiemer should be playing for the Brewers in 2023 at some point.  I wouldn't be surprised to see both in the major league camp in spring training next year and possibly one making the team out of spring training.  

If the Brewers do trade Woodruff after this season it will be for prospects and not MLB players.  The most recent example of a trade like this was the Sale trade.  So something like this from the Tigers:

Brewers get:

Greene, Jobe, Dingler and Kreidler

Tigers get:

Woodruff

Another possible prospect trade would be with the Rangers.

Brewers get: 

Leiter, Jung, Smith, Acuna and Zavala

Rangers get:

Woodruff.  

Wiemer and Mitchell is the plan for losing Renfroe and McCutchen in 2023? This would be a great plan if we planned on not seriously competing and rebuilding instead with the farm. Great positivity and glass half full and all… not a realistic plan, imo. Maybe one can back up next season and start in 2024. 
Trading a Woodruff’s two years in 2023 would get you quality prospects at high milb levels, especially if Woodruff is top 10 CY Young this year.  Our upper levels are in need of more quality, as well. Call it a Rays move.
I am all for keeping everybody but that doesn’t seem very money smart or even asset smart.  In two years when our best players contracts are about up, we would be getting far less back in trades or forced to pay major bucks on the last year of arby and then possibly watch them walk.
 

[Brewcrew51T]

The biggest point to look into regarding a Woodruff trade (or a trade of any pillar player for that matter) is exactly how long the Brewers' winning timetable actually is. I would be hard-pressed to believe the Brewers would move on from a cornerstone player to effectively make a buy-now/buy for near future move (or any team for that matter) at a position of weakness. Should any move happen, Stearns & Co. would likely believe a reset or refocus is necessary to step back and replenish in 2023-2025. I don't quite see that happening when pitching is the bane of many playoff teams and the Crew have enough farm system depth to make offensive upgrades in the near-term (though I'd agree with many that I'd love to see the team be more willing to go after a more solid bat than they normally target).

[rickh150]

The more realistic Brewers to extend after the season might include Houser, Lauer, and Adames.
 

[nate82]

21 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Wiemer and Mitchell is the plan for losing Renfroe and McCutchen in 2023? This would be a great plan if we planned on not seriously competing and rebuilding instead with the farm. Great positivity and glass half full and all… not a realistic plan, imo. Maybe one can back up next season and start in 2024. 
Trading a Woodruff’s two years in 2023 would get you quality prospects at high milb levels, especially if Woodruff is top 10 CY Young this year.  Our upper levels are in need of more quality, as well. Call it a Rays move.
I am all for keeping everybody but that doesn’t seem very money smart or even asset smart.  In two years when our best players contracts are about up, we would be getting far less back in trades or forced to pay major bucks on the last year of arby and then possibly watch them walk.
 

Teams compete every year with rookies on the roster.  I don't see an issue with relying on one or two in the lineup and competing.  Heck Woodruff and Burnes were rookies during the 2018 team I guess the Brewers were really not competing then.  They must have been wearing the wrong baseball hats I guess.  

[Roderick]

14 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Wiemer and Mitchell is the plan for losing Renfroe and McCutchen in 2023? This would be a great plan if we planned on not seriously competing and rebuilding instead with the farm. Great positivity and glass half full and all… not a realistic plan, imo. 
 

It isn't like you are replacing great players with rookies.  I think you can realistically expect one of Wiemer, Mitchell or Frelick (maybe mid-season) to be ready for full-time play if need be in 2023.  So you go into 2023 with Yelich, Renfroe/stopgap FA, Taylor, Rookie, Rookie/Util as your OFs.  I think Renfroe has a last arby year left per BR, so we can keep him or sign another short term fill guy for a year.  Save payroll on Cain and Cutch.

 

The issue is if Wiemer is starting, can he play CF?  I don't follow closely enough to know that.  May make Taylor starting CF by default.  By next year, we should know if we are comfortable with that or not.

[nate82]

So lets go back in time a little bit it is 2008 and the Brewers are a competitive team but they need a 3B!!!!!! Unfortunately according to rickh150 if the Brewers would have started with Ryan Braun at 3B that year the Brewers wouldn't have been serious about competing because Braun was a rookie.

If there is a rookie on the team then that team is not serious about competing by rickh150's definition.  Coming back to current times the Mariners are trying to compete and have a rookie in the OF.  But according to rickh150 they are not really serious about contending because of a rookie in the OF.  Also the Angels in 2018 were not serious about competing because Ohtani was a rookie that year.  Also the Astros this year are not serious about competing because they have a rookie starting at SS.  Nope the Astros are not serious about competing this year because Jeremy Pena a rookie is playing the majority of the games at SS.  Sorry Astros and Mariners fans but your teams are not seriously competing this year because of a rookie.  

[wallus]

2 hours ago, Roderick said:

The issue is if Wiemer is starting, can he play CF?  I don't follow closely enough to know that.  May make Taylor starting CF by default.  By next year, we should know if we are comfortable with that or not.

Wiemer is definitely a corner outfielder.

[rickh150]

 

Having Renfroe back is nice... thanks Roderick for that.  That covers a corner. 

But, yeah, I don't believe that's it's reasonable to expect any two current Brewers minor league outfielders  to be labeled as starters at the beginning of 2023.  They simply are not good enough or not proven enough.... yet. Twist it and mock however you will, I am not against playing the best players, whether it be rookies or old vets.  I am just not banking on the specific players mentioned, Weimer and Mitchell (or any other Brewers minors OF), playing big innings at the beginning of 2023.  Taylor and Renfroe are there to jump over for playing time, as well.  

Also, Braun won the ROY with four months in 2007 (not 2008)... they knew he was good. They also did not bring him up right away, not until late May, I believe.  He was a top prospect for a couple of steady years too.  Burnes and Woodruff started four games total combined in 2018; both were mainly used as late season weapons out of the pen. Neither were thought of as key cogs at the beginning of the season. 

Starting Weimer and Mitchell on Opening Day 2023 and planning on them starting 120-130 games is not reasonable for how are team is constructed.  A cup of coffee? Sure.  Small roles. ok.   Banking on starting roles for both when our pitching is top 5 in MLB and the team is playoff contenders?  Nah.  I haven't seen enough good from either (especially Mitchell) yet.

[danzig6767]

Given our small market status, pretty much nobody on the roster should be off limits to being traded before they can reach free agency. That said, as with any potential trade, whether it would make sense for the Brewers would reside in the exact details of the trade since a variety of factors could impact if the trade made sense.

Quality of players offered in return

Service time of all players involved

Money in the present

What kind of money the team would be ok risking on a pitching contract

How much money Attanasio is willing to spend on future payrolls

If other starters like Peralta, Lauer, Houser, and Ashby continued pitching well

If those above also remained healthy

 

I'm sure that the Brewers front office at least thinks about this stuff now, even if they have no real intention of trading a starter any time soon this season. It's a constant balance which all winning small market teams face as they must always focus more on the present and future compared to teams with much larger revenue streams.

[Roderick]

19 hours ago, wallus said:

Wiemer is definitely a corner outfielder.

I just saw from his stats that he has played some CF in the minors.  So just confirming.  Obviously you hope Frelick/Mitchell are ready sooner than later also and have CF in hand if Taylor can't hit enough.

I think I just saw Frelick was promoted to AA.

[Roderick]

I never answered the original question.  Put me down for one of Woodruff or Burnes should be traded this offseason.  Obviously Burnes is going to be worth more, so have to gauge your return.  (I don't think we get the value you need from Lauer/Houser to want to trade them, plus they are cheaper)

Small market teams have to trade from surplus to replenish the system / fill holes - and when that surplus starts to make big bucks even if they are in arby, that just reinforces that idea.

Do you even get a draft pick anymore if you lose your guy to free agency?  If so where is that pick located?

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, Roderick said:

I never answered the original question.  Put me down for one of Woodruff or Burnes should be traded this offseason.  Obviously Burnes is going to be worth more, so have to gauge your return.  (I don't think we get the value you need from Lauer/Houser to want to trade them, plus they are cheaper)

Small market teams have to trade from surplus to replenish the system / fill holes - and when that surplus starts to make big bucks even if they are in arby, that just reinforces that idea.

Do you even get a draft pick anymore if you lose your guy to free agency?  If so where is that pick located?

No trading Burnes. Woodruff maybe, but not Burnes. The guy is probably the best pitcher in baseball right now given DeGrom's continued injury woes. You just don't trade a guy like that with multiple years of control remaining if you're trying to contend. Even when Chris Sale was traded, the White Sox were in complete tear-down mode.