Article: Three Times when Opening Day Set the Tone for the Brewers' Season (and three times it didn't)

[Kyle Lobner]

One baseball game is in the books, with 161 more to play. But does what happened today matter?

The Brewers' season did not get off to the start they hoped for on Thursday, as they dropped a 5-4 back-and-forth contest at Wrigley Field. Of course, it was just one game, 0.6% of the season. No one won or lost a World Series, a division or even a postseason berth on the season's first day. FanGraphs' projections gave the Brewers an 81.3% chance to reach the postseason before the contest, and that number won't change much when they re-run the odds on Friday. History tells us that some teams, however, had a moment in their first game that started a narrative that will follow them all year.

Consider, for example, Opening Day of the 2021 season. The Brewers, down to their final out, came back with three in the bottom of the ninth to force extras and eventually walked off with a 6-5, ten inning win over the Twins. For the Brewers, this exhilarating comeback was the first of 95 wins on their way to an NL Central championship. The Twins, meanwhile, lost star third baseman Josh Donaldson to injury, suffered a demoralizing defeat and went 14-28 in their first 42 games, freefalling out of the postseason picture after back-to-back AL Central-winning seasons. 

What follows is a look back at three seasons where the Brewers' Opening Day performance gave us a clue about the direction things were headed, and three where the first game of the season provided a rare highlight or lowlight for a season that went in the other direction.

2018
The Brewers have played some classic Opening Day contests in recent years, but the first game of the 2018 season might be the best among them: Six Brewers pitchers combined to allow just one run on six hits but were matched by Clayton Richard and the Padres, who scored off Corey Knebel in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game at one and force extras. The two teams traded zeroes into the 12th, when the Brewers got a two-out RBI single from Orlando Arcia and held on for a 2-1 victory.

That win was the first of a franchise record-tying 96 for the Crew, a magical season that took them to their second NL Central title in franchise history and left them within a single game of the World Series.

1978
For most of the first decade of their existence, the Seattle Pilots/Milwaukee Brewers were not a good team. They endured nine consecutive losing seasons from 1969-77 where they averaged just 68 wins and finished within 20 games of first place just one time. In 1978 the floodgates finally burst open, however, and it started on Opening Day.

The Baltimore Orioles were in town, a team that won 97 games the season before, and they sent future Cy Young Award winner Mike Flanagan to the mound. The Brewers chased him early, however, scoring three in the bottom of the second and another in the third. They led 11-0 before the Orioles ever got to Opening Day starter Jerry Augustine, and went on to win the game 11-3. 

After never winning more than 75 games, the 1978 Brewers broke out for 93. Under the current playoff format, they would have been a scary team to face in the postseason.

1970
The pendulum also swings the other way, of course: Five years after losing the Braves to Atlanta, Milwaukee's first day back as an MLB city in 1970 did not go according to plan. At least some of the fans in attendance probably wondered if they could give the Seattle Pilots back to their former city as the California Angels routed the new Brewers 12-0 at County Stadium. Right fielder Steve Hovley went 3-for-3 and was on base four times, but the rest of his teammates combined to go just 1-for-28.

That Brewers team lost their first three games and fell three games back of first place before the season's first weekend. They finished 65-97, just one game better than the expansion Pilots had been the year before.

Meanwhile, here are three games where the Opening Day result was just a blip on a much larger radar screen:

2011
It's hard to imagine an Opening Day starting any better than what the Brewers experienced in 2011: The Brewers led the Reds 2-0 after just nine pitches in the top of the first inning in Cincinnati, with Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez starting off the season with back-to-back home runs off Edinson Volquez. The Reds got the last laugh that day, however, scoring four in the bottom of the ninth to steal a 7-6 walkoff victory. Then, adding insult to injury, they also swept the other two games in the series and sent the Brewers home with an 0-3 record for the season.

The Brewers also lost their fourth game that year, but things turned around soon after. They went 96-62 after their 0-4 start, tying the franchise record for most wins in a season and winning their division for the first time in nearly 30 years. That team also won the Brewers' first postseason series since 1982.

2002
On Ben Sheets' first-ever Opening Day start the Brewers did something they didn't do often in his early MLB career: They got him some run support. Sheets pitched an Opening Day quality start, scattering nine hits and allowing just two runs over six innings. He outdueled Astros ace Wade Miller, who gave up three runs in the top of the first inning of a game the Brewers went on to win 9-3. Richie Sexson, Geoff Jenkins, and Alex Ochoa all homered in the contest, and center fielder Alex Sanchez scored three runs.

The Brewers, however, won just three of their first 15 games that season before firing manager Davey Lopes, and their pace didn't improve much after that either. After winning on Opening Day they went just 55-106 the rest of the way, posting easily the worst record in franchise history.  The Brewers bottomed out hard just two years after opening Miller Park, and fired general manager Dean Taylor following the season.

1969
The Brewers entered the 2022 season with a 4037-4315 record, but they haven't always been a sub-.500 team. Their franchise history got off to a good start in their debut appearance when the Seattle Pilots visited the Angels in the first game of their inaugural season. Mike Hegan homered to give Seattle a 2-0 lead and the Pilots sent ten batters to the plate in the first inning, chasing Angels starter Jim McGlothlin. They would hold on to win that game 4-3, with Marty Pattin and Jack Aker picking up the first win and save in franchise history.

A few days later the Pilots also won their first two home games to improve to 3-1 on the season, tying them for first place in the American League West. They came back to reality later in the year, however, going 15-42 in July and August and finishing 64-98. It would be 33 years before the franchise lost 98 games in a season again.

 

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