Opening Day game thread: Brewers @ Cubs: 1:20pm

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

I think you’ve put your finger in why some people are not so bullish on the Brewers. It is not a championship caliber offense.

And now that the bar is set higher than just making the playoffs and bowing out early, the offense lowers the ceiling. 

PECOTA, ATC & 538 all have the Brewers with the 3rd best WS odds in the NL. 

If they are to be believed, there is a 92-94% chance that the offense is not championship calibre.

All three systems also see the Dodgers as World Series favorites.

If they are to be believed, there is an 81-82% chance the Dodgers offense won’t be championship calibre either.

[brewers888]

1 hour ago, MadScientist said:

I know Yelich's results were bad, but looking at his swing, it's much worse from when he was good.  I wish there was a good side by side between his good years from now.  Here's what it used to be:

In his ninth inning K, there was no power being generated from his lower half.  His plant step looks like it is stopping momentum, and his hip rotation was about half of what it was in the above video.  The results made it look like a mediocre little league swing, with low bat speed and no power. 

The Brewers hitting coaches have to know this, so there must be something causing his bad form.  If there is something going on with his health, he needs to be on the IL, or retire injured and let the Brewers collect the insurance.

I was saying this last season but I think Yelich may have not recovered from fouling the ball off his leg at the end of that season. He absolutely doesn’t seem right physically and we are paying the price. Attanasio made a huge mistake giving him that contract before seeing Yelich back at full strength.

it’s been more than two full seasons since Yelich was MVP caliber. Has there ever been a player go from MVP to hitting at a level where you just hope he can draw a walk so quickly. It’s just hard to believe that a player can go from being one of the very best hitters in baseball to punch less singles hitter overnight.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Has there ever been a player go from MVP to hitting at a level where you just hope he can draw a walk so quickly. It’s just hard to believe that a player can go from being one of the very best hitters in baseball to punch less singles hitter overnight.

You just described Joe Mauer pre- and post-concussion.

But, unlike Yelich, there was an explanation for it. A concussion is wildly different than taking a ball off the leg. 

[sveumrules]

 

17 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Has there ever been a player go from MVP to hitting at a level where you just hope he can draw a walk so quickly. It’s just hard to believe that a player can go from being one of the very best hitters in baseball to punch less singles hitter overnight.

Buster 2010-17 (4243 PAs) 136 OPS+
Buster 2018-19 (893 PAs) 95 OPS+
Buster 2021 (454 PAs) 140 OPS+

Votto 2007-18 (6764 PAs) 155 OPS+
Votto 2019-20 (831 PAs) 98 OPS+
Votto 2021 (533 PAs) 136 OPS+

Yelich is younger & has struggled for less time (722 PAs) than either of Buster or Votto did before bouncing back.

[Brock Beauchamp]

20 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Buster 2010-17 (4243 PAs) 136 OPS+
Buster 2018-19 (893 PAs) 95 OPS+
Buster 2021 (454 PAs) 140 OPS+

Votto 2007-18 (6764 PAs) 155 OPS+
Votto 2019-20 (831 PAs) 98 OPS+
Votto 2021 (533 PAs) 136 OPS+

Yelich is younger & has struggled for less time (722 PAs) than either of Buster or Votto did before bouncing back.

I think this is important to keep in mind. I basically write off the 2020 season for a bunch of reasons but Yelich wasn't even that bad that year, he just wasn't MVP Yelich. So it was only last season that was a real problem and single seasons go badly for players all the time.

More data is needed, IMO.

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, endaround said:

Who aside from Adames in today's lineup is definitely better than Yelich? The Brewers are a collection of approximately league average hitters and Adames, Yelich projects better than anyone.

In a clutch situation, I'd rather see Wong and Taylor up to bat myself.  Hell, give me Rowdy over Yelich, at least with Rowdy, it feels like there is a shot in hell...  Maybe even Jace!

[sveumrules]

Some random runs scored/allowed tidbits from 2021…

Last year the Brewers went 13-10 when they scored 4 runs.

They went 9-9 when allowing 5 runs, with four of those wins being walk offs.

They went 39-1 in the 40, F-O-R-T-Y, games that they allowed zero or one runs.

They went 54-3 when scoring six or more runs.

 

[yourout]

1 hour ago, brewers888 said:

I was saying this last season but I think Yelich may have not recovered from fouling the ball off his leg at the end of that season. He absolutely doesn’t seem right physically and we are paying the price. Attanasio made a huge mistake giving him that contract before seeing Yelich back at full strength.

it’s been more than two full seasons since Yelich was MVP caliber. Has there ever been a player go from MVP to hitting at a level where you just hope he can draw a walk so quickly. It’s just hard to believe that a player can go from being one of the very best hitters in baseball to punch less singles hitter overnight.

 

I'm worried it's a chronic back condition that's going to keep them from ever approaching an all star caliber season again.

 

[titletownking]

3 hours ago, yourout said:

I'm worried it's a chronic back condition that's going to keep them from ever approaching an all star caliber season again.

 

Man I sure as heck hope not. If he looks like this at game 1, what would he look like by game 150? Brewers best hope is him finding some semblance of power. 

[SomewhereInTime]

6 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

You just described Joe Mauer pre- and post-concussion.

But, unlike Yelich, there was an explanation for it. A concussion is wildly different than taking a ball off the leg. 

Generally speaking, I would think taking a ball off the leg (which ends up breaking his kneecap) would lead to worse long term effects than a concussion.  To say there isn't an explanation to it is ridiculous.

[BruisedCrew]

10 hours ago, sveumrules said:

PECOTA, ATC & 538 all have the Brewers with the 3rd best WS odds in the NL. 

If they are to be believed, there is a 92-94% chance that the offense is not championship calibre.

All three systems also see the Dodgers as World Series favorites.

If they are to be believed, there is an 81-82% chance the Dodgers offense won’t be championship calibre either.

I think that’s a tortured interpretation of those numbers, even if they are to be believed. And I don’t put that much stock in preseason projections. 

But, even if we do believe them, a team’s chances of winning the World Series reflect an evaluation of the whole team, not just the offense or pitching or defense.

The Brewers’ chances of winning the World Series are where they are largely because of an expectation that their pitching will be at or near the top of the league. The Dodgers will most likely be at or near the top of the league in runs scored. Just because they don’t win the World Series doesn’t mean their offense wasn’t championship caliber. 

Using your logic if a team has the best hitting and worst pitching in the league and loses playoff games 10-8 that would mean their offense wasn’t championship caliber. I don’t think you really believe that.

When Christian Yelich in his current state can seriously be considered the second best hitter on the team, that is an offense that is going to have trouble winning playoff games and series when they aren’t facing back end starters and relievers. A result like scoring 6 runs in 4 playoff games is not that shocking. 

[BruisedCrew]

Out of curiosity, what projections are there for Yelich for this season. I do not subscribe to Baseball Prospectus so I can’t see theirs. But, a couple of fantasy sites I’ve seen project Yelich with an OPS a little over .800 with HRs in the low 20’s.

If I believed those projections I’d feel a lot better about the Brewers offense. But, watching Yelich the last two seasons, and then seeing his swing this spring and yesterday, I expect something much closer to what he did last year. And if he does that, projections for the overall offense and the team have to come down too.

[brewerfan82]

Yelich's Preseason Projections on FanGraphs: