Article: The Weekly: One step back, to steps forward

[Brent Sirvio]

With apologies to Tom Jones fans everywhere, it's not unusual for great pitchers to take a step back on their path toward immortality. And not all great pitchers get to that place. Corbin Burnes in 2022 is going to take that step back, and we have three case studies that can help inform where he goes from here.

The Weekly is a column on the Brewers. 'On' may do heavier lifting on some weeks than others.

We shouldn't call it regression, because that's not really what it is. Regression is a deterioration -- or perhaps, for us on the outside looking in, a recalibration -- of ability.

For example, Brady Anderson and his sideburns weren't actually as good as he was in 1996, when he hit a most-suspicious 50 home runs with a 1.000+ OPS and almost immediately regressed to career-expected numbers. Brady Anderson wasn't bad, per se; he enjoyed a 15-year career, logged over 1600 major league hits, over 600 of those for extra bases. But '96 was the exception and not the rule. He regressed. For a more contemporary example of Baltimore Orioles regression, see Davis, Chris. Side note: The good people of Baltimore deserve better.

(And better is coming! Have you seen Cedric Mullins play? And the young guys in Ryan Mountcastle and Trey Mancini and more coming up, with Adley Rutschman in the wings and John Means anchoring the rotation? Last year's Orioles team was the best 50-win team in baseball history, and the AL East needs to take them seriously in 2022 or they're going to add 20-25 wins to last season's total. Don't look at the payroll, look at the team control. I digress.)

With pitchers, seldom is that initial, coruscating burst of greatness sustained throughout a career. And that's where we should probably actually discuss matters germane to a site named Brewer Fanatic. 

Corbin Burnes, once unfairly and cruelly maligned by much of the Packers-fans-in-summer contingency of Brewers Twitter, finally assembled an all-world campaign in 2021, fulfilling all the promise he brought as a rising prospect in the Milwaukee Brewers farm system. The numbers were gaudy, aside from innings pitched: a 1.63 FIP, 0.94 WHIP, ERA+ of 176, 234 strikeouts, 34 walks, while yielding a scant seven dingers. To mention an otherwise-impressive 2.43 ERA almost does those prior figures a disservice.

He threw eight innings of a no-hitter, the second in Brewers history, knocking out the one leg Bill Schroeder had to stand on from his catbird seat/bully pulpit in the press box. The Brewers lost six games in which he started due to their dreadful offense, as opposed to the outright criminal lack of run support provided to co-ace Brandon Woodruff, who got squeezed by both his own team at the plate and the umpires behind it. It was appointment television. Corbin Burnes starts, that is, not the pitiful offense or atrocious umpiring.

It's not unfair or unrealistic, though, to expect a drawback in Burnes' 2022 numbers.

First, he won't be taking teams by surprise. The book is out on Burnes and, like reliever with changeup par excellence Devin Williams, teams can begin analyzing video to determine how to adjust plate approach.

Secondly, good, young pitchers tend to take time in countering the counter. Let's look at a few examples:

Age	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	SO9	SO/W
26	9	6	2.69	22	140.1	117	44	42	7	43	144	128	2.67	1.140	9.2	3.35
27	14	8	2.54	30	191.0	149	59	54	16	38	205	149	2.70	0.979	9.7	5.39
28	7	8	3.04	24	148.0	142	53	50	15	36	143	132	3.32	1.203	8.7	3.97
29	15	10	3.53	31	201.1	180	87	79	28	59	239	117	3.50	1.187	10.7	4.05
30	10	9	1.70	32	217.0	152	48	41	10	46	269	218	1.98	0.912	11.2	5.85
31	11	8	2.43	32	204.0	154	59	55	19	44	255	169	2.67	0.971	11.3	5.80
32	4	2	2.38	12	68.0	47	21	18	7	18	104	180	2.26	0.956	13.8	5.78
33	7	2	1.08	15	92.0	40	14	11	6	11	146	373	1.24	0.554	14.3	13.27

Age	W	L	ERA	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	SO9	SO/W
22	0	2	7.15	2	11.1	15	9	9	1	5	7	61	4.52	1.765	5.6	1.40
23	17	9	3.63	30	186.0	187	78	75	21	60	124	125	4.35	1.328	6.0	2.07
24	18	6	3.66	32	201.2	181	88	82	20	67	183	125	3.99	1.230	8.2	2.73
25	11	17	4.84	33	201.0	195	119	108	18	87	163	92	4.18	1.403	7.3	1.87
26	19	9	3.45	35	240.0	219	99	92	20	63	269	131	2.80	1.175	10.1	4.27
27	18	9	3.37	33	224.1	190	89	84	14	71	219	124	2.97	1.163	8.8	3.08
28	24	5	2.40	34	251.0	174	73	67	24	57	250	172	2.99	0.920	9.0	4.39
29	17	8	2.64	33	238.1	192	81	70	19	60	239	161	2.94	1.057	9.0	3.98

Age	W	L	ERA	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	SO9	SO/W
20	0	1	2.25	2	8.0	6	2	2	0	1	8	163	1.16	0.875	9.0	8.00
21	10	5	2.61	65	107.0	76	34	31	5	57	119	146	3.08	1.243	10.0	2.09
22	11	5	3.42	24	144.2	115	58	55	11	45	142	124	3.32	1.106	8.8	3.16
23	14	10	3.51	30	194.2	158	79	76	21	66	174	123	3.90	1.151	8.0	2.64
24	13	10	3.70	33	216.2	189	100	89	19	70	222	117	3.27	1.195	9.2	3.17
25	17	8	1.90	31	241.1	158	65	51	16	67	305	219	2.39	0.932	11.4	4.55
26	19	7	2.89	33	233.2	188	82	75	26	67	251	163	3.40	1.091	9.7	3.75
27	23	4	2.07	31	213.1	160	56	49	9	37	313	243	1.39	0.923	13.2	8.46
28	18	6	1.74	29	217.0	128	44	42	17	32	284	291	2.17	0.737	11.8	8.88

These are three very different, but Hall of Fame-grade career trajectories nonetheless, and all three have similar pitch repertoires as Burnes. What is clear from all three is that each of them has a pullback season, sometimes multiple seasons, where the league seems to catch up to him. Each of these pitchers goes back to the lab, not necessarily to reinvent themselves en route to the prime of their careers, but to remain a step ahead of opposing hitters.

Now, let's revisit Corbin Burnes:

Age	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	SO9	SO/W
23	7	0	2.61	0	38.0	27	11	11	4	11	35	158	3.79	1.000	8.3	3.18
24	1	5	8.82	4	49.0	70	52	48	17	20	70	51	6.09	1.837	12.9	3.50
25	4	1	2.11	9	59.2	37	15	14	2	24	88	216	2.03	1.022	13.3	3.67
26	11	5	2.43	28	167.0	123	47	45	7	34	234	176	1.63	0.940	12.6	6.88

Expecting Burnes to duplicate or leapfrog his 2021 success in 2022 is mostly foolhardy, but that is not the same as suggesting he isn't capable of being a reliable, effective starter with the ability to sustain a strong, perhaps even Hall of Fame-worthy career. It's saying that Corbin Burnes, like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander or -- I would argue, the pitcher he most strongly resembles -- Pedro Martinez, will face headwinds this season to which he will will have to adjust in order to stay at the upper echelon of Major League pitching over the long term.

And what should encourage Brewers fans is that, with Burnes' prior focus on the mental and emotional aspects of being a professional athlete, he may be particularly well-suited to not only weather the imminent storm, but mitigate its effects. So, while we might not see that superhuman Corbin Burnes this season, we will still at least see an impact starter in a corps of effective-to-exceptional starters.

We'll be watching Burnes not in regression, but in the midst of evolutionary adaptation; changes that may well pivot him from being a top-end starter to something even more.

Statistics courtesy Baseball Reference.

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