Article: Hunter Renfroe's Role with the Brewers Versus Right-Handed Pitching

[Tim Muma]

Hunter Renfroe will be a regular in the starting lineup when the Milwaukee Brewers face a left-handed starting pitcher this year. How will he be handled when a righty takes the hill against the Crew? Despite improving his performance against right-handers last season, Renfroe’s production against same-side hurlers raises questions.

When Milwaukee acquired Renfroe for Jackie Bradley, Jr. and a couple of prospects, fans were happy to be rid of Bradley, Jr.’s gaudy contract. But giving up two of the Brewers' top-20 prospects signals that management expects Renfroe to be a consistent contributor. His career line versus left-handed pitching speaks for itself:  .263 average, .347 OBP, .557 SLG, 904 OPS, .375 wOBA, 137 wRC+.

The last stat, wRC+ (weighted Runs Created Plus), better represents a hitter’s offensive value where each point above 100 is equal to one percentage point above league average. Thus, Renfroe is 37% better than league average against lefties in his career. Suffice to say, Renfroe is a proven commodity against southpaws and will help to strengthen the Brewers’ 2021 weakness. The problem is that Milwaukee will likely see far more right-handed starters as they did last year (123 righty-handed starters faced).

It’s not as though the 6-foot-1-inch, 230-pound outfielder can’t do anything against righties. In his past two full seasons – 2019 and 2021 – he blasted 33 and 31 homers, respectively. Of Renfroe’s 31 HR a year ago, 20 of them came off righties. He has always had respectable power against right-handers (.459 career SLG); the problem lies in the rest of his “production” facing righties in his career. The long ball potential is tempting to utilize, while the strikeout rate (K%) of 29.5% can be frustrating.

This could mean that Renfroe is put in the starting lineup based on additional matchup factors (e.g., pitcher type, pitch movement, velocity) when they see a right-handed starter. It also could open the door for 28-year-old Tyrone Taylor to see more time in the starting lineup and pick up more at-bats. Some believe Taylor deserves an extended, more consistent opportunity to produce. Taylor has just 324 total MLB plate appearances (271 last season), posting a slash line of .251/.324/.467/.791. Sure, solid stats, but many players get exposed the more often they bat. On the flip side, you never really know how good they are until they get that real shot.

When we look at Taylor’s numbers versus righties specifically, they become less impressive, albeit in just 216 plate appearances. Take a look at Taylor’s stats against right-handers.

While the numbers don’t jump off the page, they are better than Renfroe’s in 1,200 fewer times to the dish. Taylor and Renfroe could also be battling with veteran newcomer Andrew McCutchen for at-bats. The challenge in figuring out McCutchen’s value versus right-handers is deciding how much to factor in his early-career stats compared to his more recent production. The 35-year-old owns an .816 OPS against same-sided hurlers in his career but had a mere .650 OPS and .683 OPS the past two seasons. The Brewers will likely give him chances early on, and the results will dictate the plan moving forward.

Going back to Renfroe, it is a little tough to figure out the size and scope of his role, particularly when the Brewers see a right-handed starter. The grass looks a bit greener when you dig deeper into the numbers. Everything goes up when peeking at his stats against right-handed starters only (not including right-handed relievers). His last two full seasons look particularly enticing (though he won't ever be a high-OBP hitter).

While it covers two separate seasons – and avoids the strange 2020 campaign – he accumulated those stats over 668 plate appearances. That basically amounts to a full year in terms of sample size. Did he discover something in 2019? Was he better at game planning against right-handed starters? Is it just a fluke? Hard to say but intriguing nonetheless. Of course, that leads one to check on Taylor’s production against right-handed starters in his three years.

Taylor has 459 fewer plate appearances with this split, with only nine in 2019 and 17 in 2020. Taylor sports the far better OBP with a lower slugging percentage. How you judge his smaller sample size is up for debate. Well, it’s really up to manager Craig Counsell and the Brewers staff to figure that out. Another item for Counsell to consider will be how often he pinch hits for Renfroe (or Taylor) when opponents bring in a right-handed reliever. Since their stats against same-side starters are better than their overall righty splits, it means they struggle more against bullpen arms from that side. Will Counsell sub out his possible fourth or fifth hitter in a big situation? The numbers say he should, but other factors outside of right/lefty splits come into play.

One final detail to keep in mind is that Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain will need days off. Whether due to injury or load management, rest for those veterans should open up more playing time for Renfroe throughout the season. Ultimately, one would think that Renfroe's production and the impact it has on the Brewers scoring runs will make the picture clearer in the first couple of months.

So if you were managing the Milwaukee Brewers, what percentage of starts versus right-handed pitchers would you give Renfroe in 2022?

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