Does McCutchen's bat have a chance to rebound?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was looking over his Baseball Savant page and the severe dip in OPS he's seen isn't really justified by the advanced metrics.

Season	Age	Pitches	Batted Balls	Barrels	Barrel %	Exit Velocity	Max EV	Launch Angle	Sweet Spot %	XBA	XSLG	WOBA	XWOBA	XWOBACON	HardHit%	K%	BB%
2015	29	2780	442	41	9.3	90.6	111.4	13.9	41	.287	.523	.380	.399	.455	44.6	19.4	14.3
2016	30	2740	458	39	8.5	89.6	111.4	16.5	32.3	.259	.457	.329	.343	.401	41.7	21.2	10.2
2017	31	2621	457	35	7.7	88.4	109.5	14.2	33.7	.283	.481	.360	.362	.402	38.9	17.8	11.2
2018	32	2889	431	36	8.4	90	110.9	13.4	36.2	.260	.444	.347	.360	.400	41.9	21.3	13.9
2019	33	1165	164	12	7.3	90.6	110.3	12.7	32.9	.254	.443	.358	.357	.390	40.9	21	16.4
2020	34	974	170	14	8.2	89.7	109.9	18.2	36.5	.276	.484	.327	.358	.414	41.2	19.9	9.1
2021	35	2308	357	32	9	88.8	110.8	14.6	33.6	.240	.431	.335	.344	.390	39.5	23	14.1
Player		15477	2479	209	8.4	89.6	111.4	14.7	35.3	.266	.468	.350	.362	.409	41.3	20.5	12.8
MLB					6.6	88.3	122.2	12	32.9	.246	.407	.317	.316	.369	35.4	22	8.4

His batting average in 2021 was an abysmal .222, nearly .020 lower than expected. It's unfortunate we don't see the pitch clock enforced this season, as I think players like McCutchen might benefit the most from pitchers being unable to go max effort on every pitch, given how his batting average has dropped from .280 to .220 in five seasons. Sure, he's getting older but that's a massive drop-off from a guy who still slugs at a respectable clip and has excellent plate discipline. His other stats haven't seen drastic movement, only that batting average.

[pitchleague]

I have no statistics to back this up, but I really feel he is due for a bit of a resurgence this year, especially if the Brewers are playing first place ball all year.

I’m thinking something along the lines of .275, 25 HR, .825 OPS, and maybe even 2.5 WAR.   I think I’d be thrilled to get that out of him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, pitchleague said:

I’m thinking something along the lines of .275, 25 HR, .825 OPS, and maybe even 2.5 WAR.   I think I’d be thrilled to get that out of him.

Everybody should be thrilled with that line. Getting 2.5 wins out of an $8m player is a huge win.

[markedman5]

If he just keeps bashing lefties that will be a big help…….if he performs better against righties that’s a nice bonus.

[NBBrewFan]

If his Miller Park/AmFam Field numbers are a true indication of what a full/half season hitting their would look like then I could see a very nice uptick in his recent numbers.

[liveforoctober]

I mean, I would love for him to hit .285 with 25Hrs as much as the next guy but I think we have to have realistic expectations of what he is being brought in to do. Kris Bryant just signed a 7 yr bazillion dollar contract with the Rockies and I think .285 with 25hrs is more or less where he is going to end up (maybe inflate a touch more with the Denver air). 

8.5 mil for 'Cutch at this stage in his career... we are asking him to upgrade the offensive production that we got from Hiura, JBJ, etc from last year. If he replicates his numbers from last year and provides 1.5 WAR .. he will be worth the contract. I'm optimistic like everyone else he can do a tick better, but if he ends up hitting .240 or something but otherwise his numbers hold - I will be a bit bothered if this is seen as a negative signing.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

2 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

8.5 mil for 'Cutch at this stage in his career... we are asking him to upgrade the offensive production that we got from Hiura, JBJ, etc from last year. If he replicates his numbers from last year and provides 1.5 WAR .. he will be worth the contract. I'm optimistic like everyone else he can do a tick better, but if he ends up hitting .240 or something but otherwise his numbers hold - I will be a bit bothered if this is seen as a negative signing.

If he just bunted every at bat, he would outproduce (outslug?) Hiura/JBJ from last year.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

It's the plate discipline. I know clubhouse stuff is hard (impossible?) to measure, but can McCutchen's elite eye rub off on people? Can he be a locker room hitting coach? 

I know that's not a fashionable question these days, but, for a team that struggles with approach, it can't hurt to be around a guy who is a) pretty good at it and b) by all accounts a great presence in the locker room.

[BrewCrew8675309]

AmFam field + a steady diet of putting vs Lefties and lots of load mgmt will give decent output. The temptation is to expand past that but CC and Stearns should know better. 

Therefore,  .275, 25 HR, .825 OPS, and maybe even 2.5 WAR seems high, but the BA and OBP with pop might track for the limited number of ABs he should get. 

[brewers888]

I get wanting to be optimistic but expecting a 35 yr old player who has been in a pretty steady decline for years to all of a sudden turn it around is a bit crazy but this is the time of the year for the rose colored glasses.

[endaround]

When rebound we are talking rebounding to 2019, so 3 years ago to around a 120 wRC+ (of course that would just be an average DH).  That is a large ask.  Maybe the more reasonable ask is that he not hit an age 35 cliff and fall off to unplayable levels.

[Brock Beauchamp]

36 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

I get wanting to be optimistic but expecting a 35 yr old player who has been in a pretty steady decline for years to all of a sudden turn it around is a bit crazy but this is the time of the year for the rose colored glasses.

But has he really been in that steady of a decline with the bat? That's the question I kept asking myself.

2020 was a trashfire of a season for a bunch of guys, I tend to discard the season entirely.

In the seasons 2017-2019, McCutchen has an OPS of .849, .792, and .834. Obviously, that's a significant step down from Cutch's peak MVP-level seasons but they're relatively recent and above what he posted in 2021 (.778 OPS).

When I asked if his bat can rebound, I was thinking more in the .810 range instead of the .770 range. In no way am I of the mindset he will return to an .850 or higher OPS.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, endaround said:

When rebound we are talking rebounding to 2019, so 3 years ago to around a 120 wRC+ (of course that would just be an average DH).  That is a large ask.  Maybe the more reasonable ask is that he not hit an age 35 cliff and fall off to unplayable levels.

The average wRC+ for an AL DH has moved around between 105-111 over the last ten years.

That seems like a reasonable range for McCutchen in 2022.

[brewers888]

37 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

But has he really been in that steady of a decline with the bat? That's the question I kept asking myself.

2020 was a trashfire of a season for a bunch of guys, I tend to discard the season entirely.

In the seasons 2017-2019, McCutchen has an OPS of .849, .792, and .834. Obviously, that's a significant step down from Cutch's peak MVP-level seasons but they're relatively recent and above what he posted in 2021 (.778 OPS).

When I asked if his bat can rebound, I was thinking more in the .810 range instead of the .770 range. In no way am I of the mindset he will return to an .850 or higher OPS.

I just don't see McCutchen even in a best case scenario being nearly good enough for a lineup that needs a big time producer. With this pitching in place it is the perfect time to acquire a guy like Castellanos but we seem to have chosen a far cheaper path.

This offense was incredibly difficult to watch last season and I just don't see Renfroe and McCutchen doing enough to change that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

I just don't see McCutchen even in a best case scenario being nearly good enough for a lineup that needs a big time producer. With this pitching in place it is the perfect time to acquire a guy like Castellanos but we seem to have chosen a far cheaper path.

This offense was incredibly difficult to watch last season and I just don't see Renfroe and McCutchen doing enough to change that.

I agree it's not enough, I'll be pretty disappointed if no other moves are made. If this is a secondary move, I quite like it. If it's the primary move to shore up offense, I'm not a fan of it.

[JosephC]

I haven't gone through the payroll numbers recently, but I think this probably puts the Brewers up to 115 million.  Since the highest they've ever gone is a bit over 120 million, it's probably safe to think that this is the last major move of the offseason.

Taking all seven of the projection services listed at Fangraphs and then taking the average, here is McCutchen's 2022 projection-

124 games, 530 plate appearances, 69 runs, 22 home runs, 69 RBIs, 5 stolen bases

.239/.342/.437/.779, 109 wRC+, 1.1 WAR 

[monty57]

It will be interesting to see how they use McCutchen. If they primarily use him as an OF/DH vs LHP and a late-inning pinch hitter vs LHP, then I could easily see his OPS being mid-.800s. If he sees significant time against RHP, then we're probably looking at a mid-to-high-.700s OPS guy.

He and Taylor both hit lefties significantly better than righties, while Cain (at least last year) hit righties better than lefties. I could see a regular "vs LHP" lineup with Taylor the starting CF and Cutch at DH or spelling Yelich in LF. Yelich is still going to be an everyday guy, but when he sits it should be against lefties (67 wRC+ in 2021 vs LHP).

The big question is whether they just signed a former MVP to an $8.5M contract to play 20-25% of the games. I think he'll see quite a few PAs against RHP, so his rate stats like OPS will be lower.

[BrewCrewBBQ]

12 hours ago, monty57 said:

He and Taylor both hit lefties significantly better than righties, while Cain (at least last year) hit righties better than lefties. I could see a regular "vs LHP" lineup with Taylor the starting CF and Cutch at DH or spelling Yelich in LF. Yelich is still going to be an everyday guy, but when he sits it should be against lefties (67 wRC+ in 2021 vs LHP).

I like this quite a bit. Yelich has historically hit LHP pretty well, especially when he was in his MVP form. The question is whether or not that hitter still exists.

[Adam Rygg]

It's realistic to expect a little bit less success against LHPs, perhaps a touch more against RHPs, and possibly some impact if he's not playing in the field as much. Not everybody takes well to DH-only duties. It'll be worth watching how much he plays in the field early in the season, whether that looks to be affecting him at the plate, and how Counsell reacts to McCutchen adjusting to his new normal.

[Robocaller]

his stats (not counting stats) might improve, because I don't think he's getting 379 PA vs. righties this season.

[liveforoctober]

On 3/17/2022 at 8:12 AM, brewers888 said:

I just don't see McCutchen even in a best case scenario being nearly good enough for a lineup that needs a big time producer. With this pitching in place it is the perfect time to acquire a guy like Castellanos but we seem to have chosen a far cheaper path.

This offense was incredibly difficult to watch last season and I just don't see Renfroe and McCutchen doing enough to change that.

You've said this in a few different spots now. What contract would you give Castellanos right now? Why hasn't he signed yet with someone? Do you think he wants to come to Milwaukee?

If you are giving this guy $20+ million a season for over 5 years which is what he is asking for to run our payroll more than 10% higher than it has ever been.. he better win us a world series. Because if he hits .270 this year and only hits 20 Hr's and you could have gotten the same production from a guy like 'Cutch for 40% of the price without the longevity risk... you are fired as the GM.