McCutchen in agreement with Brewers

[MVP2110]

3 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Since Cutch is most likely our last "big" addition I guess we're looking at

Wong

Adames

Yelich

Renfroe

Tellez

Cutch

Narvaez

Urias

Cain

If Yelich is close to the old Yelich, this COULD be a good offense... I just cant stop thinking about that post from the other day of us being the 2nd best offense from Adames deal to 9/4, or w/e it was... Maybe this lineup will be alright.

This lineup doesn't have a deadly middle of the order(unless Yelich comes back to MVP Yelich) but it's does stretch quite a bit. There's no real black holes in this lineup. I mean if a guy who had 23 home runs and a .345 obp is your #8 hitter that's quite a bit better than most teams #8 guys 

[DR28]

7 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

This lineup doesn't have a deadly middle of the order(unless Yelich comes back to MVP Yelich) but it's does stretch quite a bit. There's no real black holes in this lineup. I mean if a guy who had 23 home runs and a .345 obp is your #8 hitter that's quite a bit better than most teams #8 guys 

Yep I definitely agree... Yelich returning is something close to what he was before, could go a long damn way... He said he's healthy, but pretty sure he's said that the last couple springs as well I believe.

I do like that everyone in the lineup projects at 10+ HR... According to Fangraphs anyway.

[BallFour]

7 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Since Cutch is most likely our last "big" addition I guess we're looking at

Wong

Adames

Yelich

Renfroe

Tellez

Cutch

Narvaez

Urias

Cain

If Yelich is close to the old Yelich, this COULD be a good offense... I just cant stop thinking about that post from the other day of us being the 2nd best offense from Adames deal to 9/4, or w/e it was... Maybe this lineup will be alright.

It was runs scored but if you dig into it on fangraphs and taking pitchers out of the equation. The Brewers were 11th in offensive WAR value over that period of time. 

[SRB]

There's a decent chance we will have effectively added the "biggest bat" of any team in baseball going into 2022. I'm bullish on Hiura having a rebound now that he can finally be a DH and does not need to worry about defense, much less learning an entirely new position in the majors, and hopefully (not just for baseball reasons of course) some of his family issues have gotten better. If Hiura can hit RHP anywhere close to how he did at his peak, and if McCutchen continues to hit LHP like he has in recent years, that is without exaggeration MVP caliber production at DH.

[DR28]

1 minute ago, BallFour said:

It was runs scored but if you dig into it on fangraphs and taking pitchers out of the equation. The Brewers were 11th in offensive WAR value over that period of time. 

Got it, thanks!

Damn I like that! And that was with Yeli being not himself last year.

[StearnsFTW]

Too much money imo.

At least it's only 1 year.

Would've preferred a reliever and a cheap bat, but whatever.  Hoping for the best.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Adames' injury last August that basically led to a missed month and uneven playing time headed into the postseason really hurt the look of the Brewers' offense down the stretch - particularly against LHP.  It's not like they were putrid offensively all of 2021 while finding a way to win mid 90's games despite coasting most of September - they had a good enough offensive roster that seemingly ran out of gas due to a mix of injuries and ill-timed slumps.  Getting Adames back everyday towards the top of the order with what I'm hoping is a rebound-type season from Yelich and the addition of Renfroe would make the middle of their lineup look pretty darn good against lefties compared to the last couple seasons.

I think there's one more big move to be made offensively, but it also wouldn't surprise me to see them roll with who they have into the regular season and then fill roster holes at the trade deadline.  As others have mentioned, the NL Central is looking mighty gettable for the Brewers - and the expanded playoff field gives them even more confidence.

[BallFour]

Last I checked a projected 1 Win Above Replacement is going for $8.5 Million in free agency right now. Seems like an appropriate deal to me.

[owbc]

The odds of at least one of Hiura/Yelich having a bounce back year are quite favorable I think. I don't know which one it will be. 

Hard to project a lineup when you know there are going to be 75-100 different combinations plus we know Stearns won't be afraid to pull the trigger in a trade in April or May. 

I'm looking forward to seeing Cutch and Adames interacting. Going to be a fun clubhouse. 

[reillymcshane]

I was hoping closer to $6M - but figured it would be around $8M. 

I always loved Cutch. Just a stand up guy. The dude was something special for about 5 years. Too bad that was 10 years ago.

On the positive side, McCutchen's BABIP was really low - down to .244 (after being .281 and .299 the previous two years). If that can rebound some - he could get back more to a .250ish BA.

My biggest fear is that his inability to hit right handers is a real thing (he hit just .186 against righties) - the result of age. It happens to everyone. If that's the case, he's an expensive platoon bat. 

[jay87shot]

1 WAR value is around 8.5 but I feel like for a smaller budget team like us we need to adjust and make it more like 1 WAR= 6 million or something. 

Also an average everyday player is usually considered a 2 WAR player so a guy like Cutch is even below average in WAR consideration. 

That being said I am ok with the signing, Cutch is a great clubhouse guy and has raked in Milwaukee. With Yeli and Cain injury potential and the DH he can be a good investment. I would have spend the money on a reliever as well but I wouldn't be surprised if he hits .250-.260 with a obp over 350. If you throw in 30 HR he could hit 4th and be a great signing.

[BallFour]

There are only two teams better than the Brewers at WAR per dollar since David Stearns took over, that is the Rays and the Athletics. They have averaged $2.9 Million per 1 win. 

[edfunderburk]

5 hours ago, MVP2110 said:

This lineup doesn't have a deadly middle of the order(unless Yelich comes back to MVP Yelich) but it's does stretch quite a bit. There's no real black holes in this lineup. I mean if a guy who had 23 home runs and a .345 obp is your #8 hitter that's quite a bit better than most teams #8 guys 

I’d rather see Urius higher … Yelich could bump down until he shows he can hit again

[TURBO]

On 3/14/2022 at 8:37 PM, Jopal78 said:

Taylor is already 28, and has a sub .330 OPB for his career in both the majors as well as the minors.

Its great when a 2nd round pick makes it after spending a decade in the minors, but biography aside Taylor is just a guy. 

a guy who has never had a starting gig...

I was hoping if they weren't going to add a BIG bat in the OF, Taylor would get a shot at it.  Renfroe is not the BIG bat I was hoping for to replace Taylor.  McCutch is not the guy I was hoping for to take at bats from Taylor.

[MNBrew]

10 hours ago, Crew Fan58 said:

I agree, I hope Cutch isn't the only signing. But I hate to be a downer I just don't see MA ponying up big dollars to put this team over the top. Which is a shame because with this pitching staff this is the time to go for it.

 

MA has definitely shown that he'll pony up for what Stearns believes is the right big move.  The move has to be there in the first place, though -- can't make a deal happen that's not there or that the right player's not interested in.

There's a lot of action right now, but since this is really Hot Stove Part 2 going on, it becomes easy to get down when the Brewers don't get a big name when some action with big names happens.  Stearns' actions back up his words, that the Opening Day roster isn't the be-all/end-all, and that moves to make the team better can happen at any time.

Tom Haudricourt would routinely say once big names signed and it seemed like the Brewers "lost out" that it's proven true again and again that players generally seem to know where they want to go, and he was usually right about it (think: Justin Turner re-signing with LA among many, many others).

It seems you're asking MA to do is throw big $$ at somebody . . . . and when he did that with Lohse, Suppan, etc. types a decade or whatever ago, he was berated for doing so non-stop on this board for years afterward.  I'd pretty much always rather the Brewers make no deal than make a bad deal, as horribly disappointing and boring as that is.

[Lathund]

21 hours ago, liveforoctober said:

A smaller piece to this but something that should NOT be overshadowed is that the chemistry in the clubhouse should be really, really good. This helps indefinitely during the grind. Signing 'Cutch has that intangible added to it. Everywhere he has gone it is said he is an all-time teammate.

Veterans like Cutch, Cain, Yelich, Wong who are all by all accounts very professional and good teammates. Tyrone Taylor getting to play the outfield alongside those 3 couldn't be asking for a better situation to learn in. Willy Adames is in a class of his own, the man even makes Craig Counsell smile! Rowdy, Suter seem like a lot of fun too. I mean I don't think this is ever their primary concern with a signing, but certainly seems they take it into account. Probably part of the approach they take of always looking at how to win the most over 162 games, as opposed to the best team on paper. Reflects in pitcher usage, in roster construction with depth, positional flexibility etc. Makes sense that it'd also include getting personalities in there who can help the team in the rougher stretches of the season. 

As for Cutch; Brewers put up 91 wRC+ against LHP last year. Cutch put up 168 wRC+. That was second best in baseball (after Trea Turner. Min. 150 PA). Since Turner isn't available, they went and got the biggest possible upgrade out there for a major weakness of the offense. As for Castellanos, that home/away split is really worrying. And he'd get at least twice what Cutch is getting, and for 5-6 years. For a DH. That'd have been a terrible way to spend money with all the arbitration raises coming up. 

[Patrick425]

I see in this thread and other threads on this site,  posters who are lamenting that the Brewers appear unwilling to make a big splash in the FA market and upset that this appears to be their "big bat" addition.  According to Roster resource on FanGraphs, the current projected 2022 payroll is $132M. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/brewers This is historically high for the Brewers and 30% more than their final 2021 payroll of $103M.  Some comments suggest that Attanasio is stingy and could afford to spend more.  Are you suggesting that if Attanasio owned the Yankees, Dodgers,  Giants, or any other large market club that his payroll would still be $130M?  I find it interesting that all the "stingy" and "cheap" owners happen to own small market clubs. ?‍♂️

[long ball]

I like Mccutchen. Happy with the addition. I think he can be part of a functional offense, but I don't have a lot faith in the current position player group to be an above average offense over the course of the season let alone in the playoffs. Really need a strong bounce back from Yelich. Pretty much every position player the Brewers will be relying on in 2022 has a spotty recent history. I think we need another piece or two to make this offense work. Not sure where the roster space comes from though unless Hiura and/or Brosseau open in the minors. 

[JosephC]

On 3/16/2022 at 1:45 PM, jay87shot said:

1 WAR value is around 8.5 but I feel like for a smaller budget team like us we need to adjust and make it more like 1 WAR= 6 million or something. 

 

Kind of the "common thought" around this is that the smallest markets probably see 1 WAR being in the 5 to 5.5 million range.

Take the midpoint of that and do the math: 8.5 million / 5.25 million = 1.6 WAR...probably a decent bet that Stearns is expecting that type of production from McCutchen.  And I think chances are pretty decent that McCutchen winds up right around there unless something unexpected happens like he's forced to play a whole bunch in CF and RF and poor defensive numbers pull the overall WAR way down.  

[Adam Rygg]

On 3/16/2022 at 11:28 AM, SRB said:

If Hiura can hit RHP anywhere close to how he did at his peak, and if McCutchen continues to hit LHP like he has in recent years, that is without exaggeration MVP caliber production at DH.

I think a lot of people forget that Hiura has reverse splits. Counsell seemed to at times last year (though obviously he didn't) too.

So if both are on the 26-man together, they could platoon at DH despite both hitting righty.

[torts]

Spring training dinger champion signing right here

[Joseph Zarr]

Interesting to hear McCutcheon speaking of his 'issues' last year versus RHP. I can't find the clip any longer, but in the past few days (after hitting 2 HR off Mariners RHP) he was speaking briefly to not having his Legs last year coming off of injury ( @BSirvio: toss in another). He was very clear in thinking back to his past season vs LHP this off-season: If he can smash LHP there is no reason he can't smash RHP in his view. In the newest podcast, and first one ever, McCalvy speaks to the Brewers personnel staff finding he also had a lot of really Bad Luck when hitting off RHP last season: podcast HERE. Also in this podcast is the paraphrased quote that 'Cutch' shared: he expected to hit at least a HR when visiting Miller Park (I see you American Family. I defer).

I am leaving room to be presently surprised.

 

** This post is actually about how many parentheses I can use and not go overboard. I think I went overboard.