Dreaming of a Bryan Reynolds Trade

[Tim Muma]

I'd already written elsewhere earlier this year about how the Brewers pursuing Bryan Reynolds would be a push to win a title in the next 2-3 years. It's be similar to acquiring Yelich in terms of prospects. A couple of recent developments continue to fuel my hopes...

• Reynolds has declined to sign any sort of contract extension/deal with the Pirates (at least twice)
• Brewers sign McCutchen, who is a RH outfielder
  • This makes Tyrone Taylor more expendable

Aside from needing top prospects from MIL, PIT would like Taylor to start immediately & be under team control through 2026. With the pitching MIL has right now, I'd be bold to trade for Reynolds, knowing how much he improves the offense & a shot at a ring the over the next 3 years. Thoughts?

[wibadgers23]

Would absolutely love to know who we offered up at the deadline for Reynolds. I know it would take a haul to get him, but man would he look good in our lineup. I don’t even want to guess what the cost would be because I’m sure I’d be way off.

[KeithStone53151]

I love the idea of offering a package starting with small/Taylor and adding from there. I honestly don't know how much would be needed, Reynolds has 4 years of team control left so I imagine quite a bit more than those 2. Probably are including one of our top outfield prospects as well and possibly one more piece.

[Eye Black]

The Pirates have a deep farm system, if I were them I would want a package for Reynolds that was focused on top-end caliber talent in an attempt to hit on a future star. I just don't think a likely backend of the rotation arm would cut it. If I were to pick the players in the Brewers system currently with the highest upside potential it would be Aaron Ashby, Joey Wiemer, and Garrett Mitchell. Then I would look at the group of younger players and find the player I thought had the best chance to see their profile skyrocket in the coming years. In my opinion that's Jeferson Quero, but you could also argue Hedbert Perez or Jackson Chourio best fit that designation.

So if I am the Pirates I would probably ask for Aaron Ashby, Joey Wiemer and Jeferson Quero in addition to Tyrone Taylor. That's a high price to pay from the Brewers point-of-view, but also might not be enough when you consider another team might be willing to part with a top-20 prospect in baseball as part of their package. 

[wibadgers23]

14 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I love the idea of offering a package starting with small/Taylor and adding from there. I honestly don't know how much would be needed, Reynolds has 4 years of team control left so I imagine quite a bit more than those 2. Probably are including one of our top outfield prospects as well and possibly one more piece.

Yeah I would imagine you’re starting with either Frelick or Mitchell plus Small plus a couple more in our top 10. It would sting for sure.

[Tim Muma]

I have always leaned toward getting proven talent. Prospects are great and you obviously need them for sustained success. However, countless don't come close to the hype and you will always have a "top 30" and "top 10" prospect list - they just might not have the same projection. Also, there are always guys who shoot up the charts each year.

I'd be willing to give up a lot. The Brewers are legit title contenders for 2-3 years with their pitching, then decisions will have to be made. If they can't pay them (or don't want to), you have lots of trade assets to rebuild quickly and replenish the farm system...which has some strong talent a few years away in the lower levels.

[Jopal78]

Seems to me this  proposal would be a quantity for quality deal. None of the Brewers current minor leaguers can be qualified as a "can't miss" prospects, and, for what those lists are worth, none of their prospects are regarded as amongst the Top 50 or so in the game.

The Brewers don't have the type of minor league talent to swing trades for everyday players with years of team control remaining. 

If Milwaukee wanted to acquire Reynolds they'd probably have to deal from a combination of players like Devin Williams, Urias, Ashby, Cousins etc. Young major league ready players with upside and long-term team control remaining. 

[KeithStone53151]

Thinking more on this, looking at the yelich trade is probably a good value starting point. I think Reynolds probably has more value than yelich had at the time as well.

[MadThinker88]

IIRC I shared this info nugget before, but if not, its very relevant to the topic at hand.

From what I "heard", when Cleveland called to gauge the cost of trading for Reynolds pre-lockout, the Pittsburgh ask was:

All 3 of prospects George Valera (OF), Brayan Rocchio (SS) and Daniel Espino (RHP) ALONG with 2 other prospects (1 pitcher & 1 position player) from the system top 25.

Depending on which national prospect site you use, all 3 of Valera/ Rocchio/ Espino are in the top 100 and 1 or 2 could be in top 50 depending on the source.

Pittsburgh has every right to ask/ demand the sun/ moon/ stars in trade return for Reynolds, but other teams also have the right to move along and look for other talent at a more reasonable cost.

Considering that MKE & PITTS are in the same division, I would believe there would be an extra premium cost that PITTS would be asking for from any division rival....

[titletownking]

9 hours ago, Eye Black said:

The Pirates have a deep farm system, if I were them I would want a package for Reynolds that was focused on top-end caliber talent in an attempt to hit on a future star. I just don't think a likely backend of the rotation arm would cut it. If I were to pick the players in the Brewers system currently with the highest upside potential it would be Aaron Ashby, Joey Wiemer, and Garrett Mitchell. Then I would look at the group of younger players and find the player I thought had the best chance to see their profile skyrocket in the coming years. In my opinion that's Jeferson Quero, but you could also argue Hedbert Perez or Jackson Chourio best fit that designation.

So if I am the Pirates I would probably ask for Aaron Ashby, Joey Wiemer and Jeferson Quero in addition to Tyrone Taylor. That's a high price to pay from the Brewers point-of-view, but also might not be enough when you consider another team might be willing to part with a top-20 prospect in baseball as part of their package. 

Honestly that seems a little light but also not far away. It would definitely hurt which makes you feel like it’s a fair deal. Maybe throw in 1 more top 15 prospect. 

[Eye Black]

7 hours ago, titletownking said:

Honestly that seems a little light but also not far away. It would definitely hurt which makes you feel like it’s a fair deal. Maybe throw in 1 more top 15 prospect. 

I agree with you, I think it was probably too light. MadThinker88 also brought up a good point in that you’d have to clearly beat any other team’s offer since all things being equal the Pirates would likely prefer to deal him out of the division. 

[JackNicholson1974]

I would have to guess the cost would start with Mitchell Turang and Ashby.  If Pitt would even trade him within the division. Although didnt they give Chicago Aramis Ramirez for peanuts?

[titletownking]

This is our window to win the World Series. Prospects are just that, prospects. I’m all in on bringing Reynolds in. Young, controllable, top of the lineup talent. 

[wibadgers23]

It stands to reason if the Brewers and Pirates talked at the deadline, that the Pirates are at least intrigued with our prospects and would be willing to trade within the division. The thing with trading away top prospects is our system can always be replenished through the draft, trades and international signings so if you have an opportunity to trade for guys like Reynolds, Jose Ramirez, etc, then you have to do it.

[Adam Rygg]

Relevant to trying to come up with a give for Reynolds, is that Pittsburgh isn't ready to compete in 2022.

I therefore think the deal would start with Turang (who is highly regarded and relatively close to a big league debut) and Ashby (who has already shown flashes at the big league level). They might take a couple of lower level guys with high ceilings/pedigrees to fill out the quantity requirement, but I agree that adding in either Mitchell or Frelick is almost certainly part of an ask by Pittsburgh.

Relievers are what you supplement for later when you're ready to go. I saw Williams mentioned. The only reason they'd want Williams is to flip him for more upper level prospects. He'll start being very expensive before they're ready to seriously contend, IMO.

[TURBO]

Please, don't trade Ashby or Small.

Please?

[MadThinker88]

Consider the talks between Miami/ Pitts as reported on MLBTR.. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/marlins-notes-reynolds-hernandez-bullpen-neidert-sixto.html 

Miami has long had interest in prying star center fielder Bryan Reynolds from Pittsburgh, and Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald shed some light on the teams’ discussions. The Bucs and Marlins discussed permutations that would’ve involved top shortstop prospect Kahlil Watson — Miami’s first-round pick last summer — headed back as part of a deal. However, Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins balked at including both Watson and 2020 #3 overall pick Max Meyer in a Reynolds trade. 

......

Parting with both Watson and Meyer would’ve been quite a blow to the Miami farm system, but it reflects the huge asking price the Pirates can justifiably set with four years of arbitration control over Reynolds. 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Its going to cost a ton in high-end prospect capital to acquire Reynolds including multiple players from any current top 100 lists.

[nate82]

On 3/20/2022 at 3:40 PM, Adam Rygg said:

Relevant to trying to come up with a give for Reynolds, is that Pittsburgh isn't ready to compete in 2022.

I therefore think the deal would start with Turang (who is highly regarded and relatively close to a big league debut) and Ashby (who has already shown flashes at the big league level). They might take a couple of lower level guys with high ceilings/pedigrees to fill out the quantity requirement, but I agree that adding in either Mitchell or Frelick is almost certainly part of an ask by Pittsburgh.

Relievers are what you supplement for later when you're ready to go. I saw Williams mentioned. The only reason they'd want Williams is to flip him for more upper level prospects. He'll start being very expensive before they're ready to seriously contend, IMO.

Not even close to enough.  

I think for a deal to work it would basically include all of the Brewers top 6 prospects.  So basically Frelick, Wiemer, Ashby, Mitchell, Turang and Small/Quero/Black/H.Perez.  

I don't see the Pirates settling for anything less.  There is a reason why a deal wasn't done during last years trade deadline and it is probably because the Pirates were asking for the moon, sun and stars.  

[titletownking]

6 hours ago, nate82 said:

Not even close to enough.  

I think for a deal to work it would basically include all of the Brewers top 6 prospects.  So basically Frelick, Wiemer, Ashby, Mitchell, Turang and Small/Quero/Black/H.Perez.  

I don't see the Pirates settling for anything less.  There is a reason why a deal wasn't done during last years trade deadline and it is probably because the Pirates were asking for the moon, sun and stars.  

This feels like a bit of an overreaction. Would it require 4 top 10 prospects? Sure. Absolutely. Maybe more. Would they all be 1,2,3,4,5,6. No. Absolutely not. 

[nate82]

3 hours ago, titletownking said:

This feels like a bit of an overreaction. Would it require 4 top 10 prospects? Sure. Absolutely. Maybe more. Would they all be 1,2,3,4,5,6. No. Absolutely not. 

But it is not.  Adding up the value for Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell, Quero and Turang only gets you to about $70m which leaves you about $10m short for Reynolds.  If you add in Ashby that puts you at about $90m.  So maybe not all of the 6 but pretty darn close to the top 6.  If you start going lower from the top 6 you have to add more.  So without Ashby for example to get to $80m in value you have to do the following:

Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell, Quero, Turang, Perez, Black and Small.  That gets you to just above Reynolds current value.  Reynolds is valued around $80-90m in trade value.  I took the lower mark for this and that is what it would take to get Reynolds.  

The starting point at which the Marlins thought was ridiculous only included about $45m in trade value.  The Marlins would have had to of added another $35m in trade value.  Though I am thinking the Pirates saw a higher value in Watson and Meyer so probably closer to $60m but still a $20m gap.  

It is going to take a lot to get Reynolds from the Pirates.  The Brewers haven't revisited a trade with the Pirates since the trading deadline and there is probably a reason for that.  The price for Reynolds is too high and the Brewers have decided the price is not worth it.  

[KeithStone53151]

 

[DR28]

Sounds like Pirates and Padres are working towards a trade... Ive been Chris Paddack and Ryan Weathers as part of the deal.

See if it actually happens or not.

[KeithStone53151]

5 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Sounds like Pirates and Padres are working towards a trade... Ive been Chris Paddack and Ryan Weathers as part of the deal.

See if it actually happens or not.

I saw the same, it makes me wonder if sending Ashby or Small or Lauer would be comparable or better. Worth noting you almost never hear about Brewer trades before they happen. It's almost always a big surprise and something we didn't see coming.

[DR28]

Sounds like Reynolds is gone…

 

[monty57]

I'm not really good at this, but Weathers, Kim and Hassell look to me to be similar value-wise to Ashby, Turang and Mitchell.

The thing is, the Padres have a deep farm, so trading these guys won't empty them out, and they have deeper pockets for payroll. If the Brewers traded away those guys, they'd be very thin prospect-wise, and they would be adding to the glut of arby guys they have on the MLB roster. I already think it'll be hard to pay for everyone next year, and Reynolds would make the '23 arby raises all the more expensive.