MLB Hot Tub

[young guns]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Honest question: does anyone here understand anything the Rockies do?

If yes, could you explain it to me?

[Axman59]

I'm sure the delay in Bryant signing is that he was waiting, hoping, for any decent team to offer money similar to Colorado. But it never happened.

[wibadgers23]

 

[KeithStone53151]

Freeman to the dodgers. I've made my feelings well known but this contract absolutely magnifies my thoughts on the braves.

 

[brewers888]

6 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Freeman to the dodgers. I've made my feelings well known but this contract absolutely magnifies my thoughts on the braves.

 

I would have liked Freeman at those numbers and totally agree that Atlanta should have been willing to offer him this contract which is far from outrageous.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Freeman is 32 - Matt Olson is 27.  Matt Olson was over a full win better than Freeman in terms of WAR last season.

Freeman's 6 year contract pays him until he is 38 at an average of $27M per year.  Olson's 8 year contract pays him until he's 35 at $21M per year on average.  The Braves reportedly offered Freeman a 5 year deal for $135M that he turned down last offseason - they were more age averse to paying Freddy for 6 more seasons than the Dodgers at the exact same annual pricetag, apparently.

Take the names out of it and how long we've known them to be good players - it was a good move for Atlanta replacing Freeman with Olson, both from a production and longterm payroll perspective.

[KeithStone53151]

9 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Freeman is 32 - Matt Olson is 27.  Matt Olson was over a full win better than Freeman in terms of WAR last season.

I get the age factor, but Freeman has been better every year than Olson besides last year. He's a truly elite hitter and guys with that skill set tend to age much better than power/obp skill set. Olson strikes me as the type of guy that will be hitting 220 and barely scraping an 800 ops by his early 30s. Freeman is more likely to follow a Nelson Cruz/Justin Turner path and continue excellent production into his late years. And all that doesn't touch on how much more value Freeman should have to the braves franchise. He could have been a franchise icon like chipper. Hard to see it having the same feel with him leaving over a couple million per year.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, brewers888 said:

I would have liked Freeman at those numbers and totally agree that Atlanta should have been willing to offer him this contract which is far from outrageous.

Yeah, if I was a Braves fan I'd be pretty upset right now. While it's possible choosing Olson is the better baseball decision, this is a spectator sport and fan sentiment matters, too... and I don't think the gap between Olson and Freeman is big enough to warrant this decision.

[brewerfan82]

I don't know, I think the Olson trade and contract extension looks pretty good. You're basically getting Olson for $21M per year for his age 28 to 35 seasons vs. Freeman getting $27M per year for his age 32 to 37 seasons (not to mention it sounded like Freeman MAY have given LA a "discount", although ATL may have been the only other place he would have done the same for). Projections are showing Olson as a 4.4/4.8 WAR, 137/144 wRC+ (Steamer/ZiPS) guy next year vs. Freeman as a 4.6/4.0 WAR, 141/135 wRC+ guy next year, so they're pretty comparable while Olson's just getting into his prime years and Freeman is exiting them.

ATL had to give up some nice prospects going this route, but I think the $6M per year savings (if it allows them to add an extra WAR to the roster elsewhere) and the fact you're getting Olson for his age 28-31 seasons instead of Freeman for his age 36-37 seasons probably make it a pretty solid decision.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I don't know, I think the Olson trade and contract extension looks pretty good. You're basically getting Olson for $21M per year for his age 28 to 35 seasons vs. Freeman getting $27M per year for his age 32 to 37 seasons (not to mention it sounded like Freeman MAY have given LA a "discount", although ATL may have been the only other place he would have done the same for). Projections are showing Olson as a 4.4/4.8 WAR, 137/144 wRC+ (Steamer/ZiPS) guy next year vs. Freeman as a 4.6/4.0 WAR, 141/135 wRC+ guy next year, so they're pretty comparable while Olson's just getting into his prime years and Freeman is exiting them.

ATL had to give up some nice prospects going this route, but I think the $6M per year savings (if it allows them to add an extra WAR to the roster elsewhere) and the fact you're getting Olson for his age 28-31 seasons instead of Freeman for his age 36-37 seasons probably make it a pretty solid decision.

I think it's probably the right baseball decision, I'm only saying that in a spectator sport, a pure baseball decision shouldn't be the only consideration, especially coming off a World Series victory.

[homer]

I read somewhere the Braves offered Freeman 5/150 and he turned them down.

[JosephC]

In the market, 21 million per season seems like a real bargain price for Olson.  However, we have to remember that Olson still had two years of arbitration left that probably would have earned him about 28 million.  So if one takes those 2 years and 28 million out of the deal, it leaves 6 years and 140 million left.

So I'm primarily looking at this as a Matt Olson extension at 23.3 million per year from age 30-35 seasons.

Versus Freddie Freeman at 27 million per year from age 32-37 seasons.

Over the last three seasons-

Olson - .257/.354/.522/.876, 1465 PA, 89 HR, 244 RBI, 134 wRC+, 11.6 bWAR, 9.7 fWAR

Freeman - .304/.402/.544/.946, 1411 PA, 82 HR, 257 RBI, 144 wRC+, 11.7 bWAR, 11.7 fWAR

It's an interesting debate.  No doubt that Freeman is a better offensive player, almost solely on his ability to reach base on a much more consistent basis than Olson.  If you look at bWAR over the last three years, the two players are equally as valuable.  If you look at fWAR (and adjust for 2020 only being 37% of a full season), Freeman is worth 0.8-0.9 WAR more per season.  Then, on the flip side, the Braves have Olson for two additional seasons and when the deals end Olson would still be two years younger after his 8 seasons than Freeman will be after his six seasons....and Olson is also the cheaper player.

Other thing to note is that over the last three years, the Braves home park ranks as the 8th best hitters park while the A's home park ranks 26th according to Baseball Savant.  So that may have been a disadvantage for Olson (but very hard to believe it cost him .050 in OBP).

Seems like a coin flip situation to me.

[Axman59]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Freeman is 32 - Matt Olson is 27.  Matt Olson was over a full win better than Freeman in terms of WAR last season.

Freeman's 6 year contract pays him until he is 38 at an average of $27M per year.  Olson's 8 year contract pays him until he's 35 at $21M per year on average.  The Braves reportedly offered Freeman a 5 year deal for $135M that he turned down last offseason - they were more age averse to paying Freddy for 6 more seasons than the Dodgers at the exact same annual pricetag, apparently.

Take the names out of it and how long we've known them to be good players - it was a good move for Atlanta replacing Freeman with Olson, both from a production and longterm payroll perspective.

You need to include the cost of the 4 players the Braves had to give up to get Olson. If one or more of those players becomes an impact player in the MLB this could look bad for the Braves. Of course we won't know that for years.

[CheeseheadInQC]

There is also value in certainty for the Braves. There is no guarantee that if the Braves had offered this deal a couple days ago that Freeman would have accepted or that LA wouldn’t have gone higher. If they wait around there is a definite risk they miss out on both.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think the Olson contract itself is a steal. Giving up the prospects hurts, maybe, but factoring money and age that's a total bargain. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, Axman59 said:

You need to include the cost of the 4 players the Braves had to give up to get Olson. If one or more of those players becomes an impact player in the MLB this could look bad for the Braves. Of course we won't know that for years.

Same was said of the Brewers-Yelich trade....still waiting for all that impact talent to bring the Marlins to the top of the NL East.

Initial reports on the prospect package headed to Oakland from the Braves is they all have some warts - talented but no sure-fire MLB-ready impact talent.  Pache probably headlines the deal and he can sure go get it in the OF...but he likely can't hit well enough to win any gold gloves.  Pitchers are always wild cards - particularly prospects from the Braves' system.

[Joseph Zarr]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think it's probably the right baseball decision, I'm only saying that in a spectator sport, a pure baseball decision shouldn't be the only consideration, especially coming off a World Series victory.

Agreed. There is also, from my vantage point, just a cognitive dissonance seeing Freeman in a Dodgers uniform. From a basic 'fan of the game' perspective it hurts. Freddie is a Brave for life. It stinks to see him finish his career in a Dodgers uni. Yuck.

[monty57]

It's hard watching all these free agents sign elsewhere, but I think the Brewers are very hesitant to add any guaranteed money to next year's payroll. They'll have Hader (arby 4), Woodruff (A3), Renfroe (A4), Burnes (A2), Adames (A2), Lauer (A2), Suter (A4), Houser (A2), Tellez (A2), Severino (A3), Gustave (A2), and Urias, Milner, Williams, Brosseau, and Hiura entering their first year of arbitration.

Things are going to get really expensive just trying to keep the team together, so they probably can't afford to add any more  2023 salary. I think that our best hope for additional offense is either a trade of Houser, Lauer or Hader, or the market falling for someone like Conforto or Castellanos to the point that they're willing to sign a one-year deal.

[nate82]

3 minutes ago, Julio Muchacho said:

Agreed. There is also, from my vantage point, just a cognitive dissonance seeing Freeman in a Dodgers uniform. From a basic 'fan of the game' perspective it hurts. Freddie is a Brave for life. It stinks to see him finish his career in a Dodgers uni. Yuck.

Sucks yes but I believe it was the right move by the Braves.  These decisions suck and hurt but it is part of the business side of the game where teams have to make a decision on what they see as the right direction for the team.  

[Joseph Zarr]

2 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Sucks yes but I believe it was the right move by the Braves.  These decisions suck and hurt but it is part of the business side of the game where teams have to make a decision on what they see as the right direction for the team.  

Oh, I get it. I have no emotional attachments to it. I am merely speaking from a strictly 'fan of baseball' perspective. If I were a Braves fan seeing Freeman go to the Dodgers? I'm not all too thrilled about it regardless of the rationale and sensibility of the Olson signing - which I think is a good signing in its own right.

[monty57]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/rangers-to-sign-brad-miller.html

Brad Miller to Rangers 2 years / $10M ($6M in '22, $4M in '23). I know several posters here have been hoping for the Brewers to sign him.

This could've been a good signing for the Brewers. Can't hit lefties, but has a career .780 OPS vs RHP. Not a great defender, but plays five positions and could have made a decent platoon option on a lower-value contract.

[BallFour]

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

More details:

 

[BallFour]

Justin Lange a pitcher who was a comp A pick in 2020 is the player the Padres gave up. He is their 8th best prospect according to MLB Pipeline (which hasn't been updated for 2022 yet). A grade 50 prospect, a not so perfect comparable in the Brewers system on value and level would be Antoine Kelly.

[NBBrewFan]

4 minutes ago, BallFour said:

Justin Lange a pitcher who was a comp A pick in 2020 is the player the Padres gave up. He is their 8th best prospect according to MLB Pipeline (which hasn't been updated for 2022 yet). A grade 50 prospect, a not so perfect comparable in the Brewers system on value and level would be Antoine Kelly.

My first thought was "what! We couldn't match that or better it", but after sitting down I thought it's likely the Yankees were high on Lange and wanted him in 2020, but the Padres pulled the trigger first. Or the Brewers aren't as high on him as the Fanatics. Probably will never know for sure.