MLB Hot Tub

[Brock Beauchamp]

  On 3/23/2022 at 4:05 PM, StearnsFTW said:

Edit:  I see you went over it in your next post.  I don't buy it personally.  This seems like it could become a terrible contract.  Obviously that doesnt really matter to Boston though.

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I mean, it's a real thing. Rockies hitters in the aggregate suffer on the road in comparison to their true talent level. The team has been around for 25 years, we have a lot of data on it now.

Though obviously, "the aggregate" doesn't necessarily apply to Trevor Story. There's a lot of variance in any single player. Story could be an outlier in either direction, good or bad. Personally, I would have rolled the dice on Story, though maybe not if I'm Boston. I don't really like what they're doing here, as I'd focus on other parts of the roster and work to keep Bogaerts instead of offering Story a pile of cash.

Especially if Story isn't even going to play SS this season. A lot of his value is derived from his defensive acumen that will be lessened at 2B, especially in a season that still allows the shift to exist (2B has been the biggest defensive victim of shift-era baseball).

[StearnsFTW]

  On 3/23/2022 at 4:19 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I mean, it's a real thing. Rockies hitters in the aggregate suffer on the road in comparison to their true talent level. The team has been around for 25 years, we have a lot of data on it now.

Though obviously, "the aggregate" doesn't necessarily apply to Trevor Story. There's a lot of variance in any single player. Story could be an outlier in either direction, good or bad. Personally, I would have rolled the dice on Story, though maybe not if I'm Boston. I don't really like what they're doing here, as I'd focus on other parts of the roster and work to keep Bogaerts instead of offering Story a pile of cash.

Especially if Story isn't even going to play SS this season. A lot of his value is derived from his defensive acumen that will be lessened at 2B, especially in a season that still allows the shift to exist (2B has been the biggest defensive victim of shift-era baseball).

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His .310 OBP and .752 OPS away from Coors over his career are real things too.  That's what would worry me as a Red Sox fan.

His defense is definitely a plus, but he screams average hitter to me.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

  On 3/23/2022 at 6:51 PM, StearnsFTW said:

His .310 OBP and .752 OPS away from Coors over his career are real things too.  That's what would worry me as a Red Sox fan.

His defense is definitely a plus, but he screams average hitter to me.

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He very well could end up average-ish. I think he'll be a bit better than that but that's mostly me guessing.

[sveumrules]

I think park effects do a pretty good job with Coors.

Holliday COL 06-08: 2003 PAs | 142 OPS+

Holliday STL 09-13: 3151 PAs | 144 OPS+

Walker MON 92-94: 1617 PAs | 137 OPS+

Walker COL 95-04: 4795 PAs | 147 OPS+

Walker STL 04-05: 545 PAs | 134 OPS+

Arenado COL 15-20: 3577 PAs | 127 OPS+

Arenado STL  2021: 653 PAs | 121 OPS+

Story has a career 112 OPS+. Four of his six seasons he has been at 120 OPS+ or higher. Boston is probably the 2nd best hitters park for RH so I would guess Trevor ends up somewhere between his career mark & the 123 OPS+ he posted from 2018-20.

 

[NBBrewFan]

  On 3/23/2022 at 7:08 PM, sveumrules said:

I think park effects do a pretty good job with Coors.

Holliday COL 06-08: 2003 PAs | 142 OPS+

Holliday STL 09-13: 3151 PAs | 144 OPS+

Walker MON 92-94: 1617 PAs | 137 OPS+

Walker COL 95-04: 4795 PAs | 147 OPS+

Walker STL 04-05: 545 PAs | 134 OPS+

Arenado COL 15-20: 3577 PAs | 127 OPS+

Arenado STL  2021: 653 PAs | 121 OPS+

Story has a career 112 OPS+. Four of his six seasons he has been at 120 OPS+ or higher. Boston is probably the 2nd best hitters park for RH so I would guess Trevor ends up somewhere between his career mark & the 123 OPS+ he posted from 2018-20.

 

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My first thought after seeing those numbers (THANKS!) was is Story worth that money with a 112 OPS+.  My second thought was that's compared to all hitters and SS are likely closer to mid-80s (my guess) for an average OPS+.  Is there an OPS++ that also corrects for position so you can see how someone compares to other players at his position? I guess there's probably a summary of what is average for each position - Is there a place to "easily" (my easily means it's there and I don't have to do anything ) find that information?

[sveumrules]

  On 3/23/2022 at 9:45 PM, NBBrewFan said:

My first thought after seeing those numbers (THANKS!) was is Story worth that money with a 112 OPS+.  My second thought was that's compared to all hitters and SS are likely closer to mid-80s (my guess) for an average OPS+.  Is there an OPS++ that also corrects for position so you can see how someone compares to other players at his position? I guess there's probably a summary of what is average for each position - Is there a place to "easily" (my easily means it's there and I don't have to do anything ) find that information?

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FanGraphs has league average positional splits going back to 2002. Here is the link for league average at SS...

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2021&month=38&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2002-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=1,a

Pretty interesting that from 2002 until 2017 league average wRC+ for a SS ranged between 87-92 every year, then starting in 2018 it jumped up to 97, 100, 102 & 99 over the last 4 years, so it appears the offensive bar for SS has risen somewhat from the historical norm.

If you want to see how league average offense has evolved for some other positions over the same time frame just make sure to change positions via the "Split" drop down menu vs the positional tabs above for the most accurate results as the positional tabs include all players that played those positions (even if only on a part time basis) while the "Splits" drop down menu option isolates contributions at that specific position.

 

[StearnsFTW]

He's also not a shortstop anymore (which is crazy but true).  Not sure how much difference 2B makes, but probably not a ton.

 

Edit:  It seems to me that Boston is stealing a lot of his value by moving him to 2B which is a big part of the reason I hate this deal for them.  That and the non-Coors thing.

 

 

[monty57]

  On 3/23/2022 at 9:55 PM, sveumrules said:

FanGraphs has league average positional splits going back to 2002. Here is the link for league average at SS...

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2021&month=38&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2002-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=1,a

Pretty interesting that from 2002 until 2017 league average wRC+ for a SS ranged between 87-92 every year, then starting in 2018 it jumped up to 97, 100, 102 & 99 over the last 4 years, so it appears the offensive bar for SS has risen somewhat from the historical norm.

If you want to see how league average offense has evolved for some other positions over the same time frame just make sure to change positions via the "Split" drop down menu vs the positional tabs above for the most accurate results as the positional tabs include all players that played those positions (even if only on a part time basis) while the "Splits" drop down menu option isolates contributions at that specific position.

 

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With a subset of only 30, and probably less than that because not all teams will have a qualifying player at every position, it's easy for some numbers to be swayed in the short-run by a few really good players. In the long-run, I'd bet that SS, 2B and C will remain at the low end of the spectrum, while the "corner positions" will be at the upper end of the spectrum.

At the end of the day, if you have a SS who hits like a LF, then you're probably doing pretty good, even if he doesn't happen to be the best hitting SS in the majors at the time.

[markedman5]

 

[MVP2110]

As a Brewer fan I love this signing. Let the Cardinal fans have their last dance and get all nostalgic with Pujols as he tries to chase down 700 and hopefully that means a bunch of PAs for him since he kind of sucks now, especially vs RHP

 

https://twitter.com/dgoold/status/1508295682158911488?t=4mUnBLroGC4WdK9AUCt-8Q&s=19

[Robocaller]

  On 3/28/2022 at 12:43 PM, MVP2110 said:

As a Brewer fan I love this signing. Let the Cardinal fans have their last dance and get all nostalgic with Pujols as he tries to chase down 700 and hopefully that means a bunch of PAs for him since he kind of sucks now, especially vs RHP

 

https://twitter.com/dgoold/status/1508295682158911488?t=4mUnBLroGC4WdK9AUCt-8Q&s=19

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who's going to be the better signing, Pujols or McCutchen?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

  On 3/28/2022 at 7:39 PM, Robocaller said:

who's going to be the better signing, Pujols or McCutchen?

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Cutch was MUCH more productive last year, and while no one really knows Pujols' true age, Cutch is likely at least 5-6 years younger.

[Robocaller]

  On 3/28/2022 at 7:43 PM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Cutch was MUCH more productive last year, and while no one really knows Pujols' true age, Cutch is likely at least 5-6 years younger.

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I hear there's something in the water in StL.  

 

[JackNicholson1974]

Didn’t see it posted anywhere and this thread looks like as close to a general discussion thread as I see. 
 

brewers to wear “City Connect” jersey on 6/24.

[dlk9s]

  On 3/28/2022 at 7:45 PM, Robocaller said:

I hear there's something in the water in StL.  

 

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It transforms people into the Best Fans in Baseball.

[Joseph Zarr]

  On 3/29/2022 at 5:39 PM, dlk9s said:

It transforms people into the Best Fans in Baseball.

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In St. Louis, they only drink a tall 'Class' of Water. 

[JosephC]

  On 3/28/2022 at 7:43 PM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Cutch was MUCH more productive last year, and while no one really knows Pujols' true age, Cutch is likely at least 5-6 years younger.

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The Cardinals have already said that Pujols will primarily be the DH against LHP and they will try to get him some other at-bats here and there.  I almost fell off my chair when I saw it, but Pujols did beat up lefty pitchers in 2021 to the tune of .294/.336/.603/.939.  But he was also bad versus lefties in 2020 (.665 OPS), but was pretty good in 2019 (.830 OPS).

Not to get off-topic, but as a person who has been watching baseball for 45+ years now, it just seems really odd that a team has space on the roster for a righty-that-can-hit-lefties to platoon at DH.  Can't say I'm a fan of the 26 man roster, stuff like this makes me wish they still played with 25.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It doesn't make a lot of sense on paper, and there is not really room for him in the lineup or on the field, but would it surprise anybody for Stearns and the Brewers to step in and grab Michael Conforto on something like a two-year, $36 million deal?

[nate82]

  On 3/30/2022 at 7:23 PM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

It doesn't make a lot of sense on paper, and there is not really room for him in the lineup or on the field, but would it surprise anybody for Stearns and the Brewers to step in and grab Michael Conforto on something like a two-year, $36 million deal?

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Conforto won’t sign until after the draft because of the draft compensation that is tied to him.  

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

  On 3/30/2022 at 7:45 PM, nate82 said:

Conforto won’t sign until after the draft because of the draft compensation that is tied to him.  

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With the draft not taking place until July 17, he'd be sacrificing more than half his season. I imagine some team will step up to offer him a nice deal before that.

[wallus]

  On 3/30/2022 at 7:23 PM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

It doesn't make a lot of sense on paper, and there is not really room for him in the lineup or on the field, but would it surprise anybody for Stearns and the Brewers to step in and grab Michael Conforto on something like a two-year, $36 million deal?

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I could see it happening. I would like another lefty option that can play in the outfield.

[monty57]

  On 3/30/2022 at 7:52 PM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

With the draft not taking place until July 17, he'd be sacrificing more than half his season. I imagine some team will step up to offer him a nice deal before that.

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It would probably come down to whether he thought he'd be better off taking a one-year deal from a team willing to give up the pick to have him for one season, or whether he thought he'd get a big, multi-year deal from a team once the draft pick compensation is gone. It seems at this point that no team is going to offer a big, multi-year deal and give up the draft pick.

The Brewers did the one-year deal with Grandal, but that was to be the starting catcher, so the draft pick was worth it. Don't know if they'd give up the pick when the OF is already set and they signed McCutchen to be the DH.

To answer your original question, I doubt he'd accept a two-year deal. It'd probably be one year (to get rid of the QO and be a free agent again next year), or longer-term.

[jerichoholicninja]

Some starting OF somewhere will tear an ACL in the next couple weeks and that team will panic and give Conforto a multiyear deal. Generally seems to be what happens with these free agents that hold out into spring training.

[torts]

  On 3/28/2022 at 7:45 PM, Robocaller said:

I hear there's something in the water in StL.  

 

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He's going to hit +.300, 30+ hrs and drive in 120+ isn't he

[pitchleague]

Maybe I missed this elsewhere in the thread, but tonight I heard on mlb radio  that Conforto is having trouble signing because he hurt his shoulder diving for a ball while doing some drills in January.  Scott Boras told him not to sign until he’s healthy so he can get the best deal that he can at that time.