MLB Hot Tub

[brewers888]

14 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Can we go back to the lockout?

Clearly the lockout accomplished nothing and we once again have to pick through the scraps while the big money teams continue to have payrolls twice as big as the small market teams.

[Brock Beauchamp]

21 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Freddie had a 133 OPS+ in 2021, Adames was at 135 with the Brewers, that’s pretty comparable.

The Braves WS winning offense was powered largely by bargain bin midseason pickups…

DS: Joc, 91 OPS+ when traded. Drove in 41.7% of Braves DS runs in 5% of Braves DS PAs.

CS: Rosario, 86 OPS+ when traded. 1647 OPS as NLCS MVP

WS: Soler, 76 OPS+ when traded. 1191 OPS as WS MVP.

Yeah, the Braves were a really good example of "going for it" while bargain shopping. Their trophy is a real testament to how random baseball is in short series and how you just really need to get lucky on top of being good.

If you put the 2021 Braves against the 2021 Brewers in 100 games, I think the Brewers win at least 51 of those games. If you put the 2021 Braves against the 2021 Dodgers in 100 games, I think the Dodgers win at least 60 of those games.

[DuWayne Steurer]

22 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Clearly the lockout accomplished nothing and we once again have to pick through the scraps while the big money teams continue to have payrolls twice as big as the small market teams.

The goal of the lockout wasn't to achieve parity in the sport.  Both sides wanted to make sure they were getting as much of the pie as they could, and tinker with the rules.  It's not about parity, and probably won't be in this generation, lifetime, or century.  

[NBBrewFan]

54 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Their trophy is a real testament to how random baseball is in short series and how you just really need to get lucky on top of being good.

If you put the 2021 Braves against the 2021 Brewers in 100 games, I think the Brewers win at least 51 of those games. If you put the 2021 Braves against the 2021 Dodgers in 100 games, I think the Dodgers win at least 60 of those games.

Personally I wouldn't mind if the other team is "lucky" by outperforming a Brewer team that is playing to it's potential (or better) like 2018.  What just poops the bed is when the Brewers show up like a softball team that hit the bar the night before, and the night before, and the night before a big game and plays like utter crap (see 2021 Brewers and 2022 Packers). Maybe it's just PTSD from the Packers year after year getting beat in the playoffs mostly by teams with lesser talent that makes me more sensitive to the Crew laying an egg. Doesn't seem like luck or randomness at this point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

Personally I wouldn't mind if the other team is "lucky" by outperforming a Brewer team that is playing to it's potential (or better) like 2018.  What just poops the bed is when the Brewers show up like a softball team that hit the bar the night before, and the night before, and the night before a big game and plays like utter crap (see 2021 Brewers and 2022 Packers). Maybe it's just PTSD from the Packers year after year getting beat in the playoffs mostly by teams with lesser talent that makes me more sensitive to the Crew laying an egg. Doesn't seem like luck or randomness at this point.

Remember, I'm a Twins fan. I have little patience for you Brewers fans complaining about postseason futility.

AT LEAST YOU WON A GAME

?

[NBBrewFan]

6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Remember, I'm a Twins fan. I have little patience for you Brewers fans complaining about postseason futility.

AT LEAST YOU WON A GAME

?

Come back when the Brewer have won 2 Championships and we can compare futility, until then going 0 for the playoffs is nothing. 

[DuWayne Steurer]

Story to the Red Sox

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33555373/boston-red-sox-trevor-story-agree-six-year-140m-contract-per-reports

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think Story to the Sox at that price isn't a bad deal.  I don't like Story outside of Coors, but I think he'll probably hit ok at Fenway.  That park is usually pretty friendly for RH power hitter types, so he shouldn't see a big dropoff in his numbers after leaving Coors.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't really understand that deal from Story's perspective. I think the Twins, Yankees, or Astros would have offered similar deals and he wouldn't have to switch positions or deal with the fallout of replacing Bogaerts.

I think Story will do quite well away from Coors and wouldn't hesitate to give him that deal.

[NBBrewFan]

38 minutes ago, RoCoBrewfan said:

I think Story to the Sox at that price isn't a bad deal.  I don't like Story outside of Coors, but I think he'll probably hit ok at Fenway.  That park is usually pretty friendly for RH power hitter types, so he shouldn't see a big dropoff in his numbers after leaving Coors.  

It's true that their is a Coors effect, but it should also be noted that SF, SD and I believe LA are all pitcher friendly parks.  So with the current skewed schedule of division games some of that home/road differential is going from an extreme hitter friendly environment to multiple pitcher friendly parks. It would be nice to see what his breakdown is for west vs. non-west parks. I agree that I think he'll hit fine in Fenway to justify that contract, plus his defense is elite so he always has that to fall back on. I would move Bogaerts, but that's going to be a hard decision.

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

It's true that their is a Coors effect, but it should also be noted that SF, SD and I believe LA are all pitcher friendly parks.  So with the current skewed schedule of division games some of that home/road differential is going from an extreme hitter friendly environment to multiple pitcher friendly parks. It would be nice to see what his breakdown is for west vs. non-west parks. I agree that I think he'll hit fine in Fenway to justify that contract, plus his defense is elite so he always has that to fall back on. I would move Bogaerts, but that's going to be a hard decision.

There's more to it than the NL West parks, actually, though that's also a factor. Studies have been done that long-term Rockies hitters really suffer on road trips, particularly early in road trips. Just as Rockies pitchers suffer from breaking balls not breaking at altitude, hitters suffer from seeing different pitch mixes and breaking ball tendencies between Coors and road parks. I'd have to dig up the study but there is a significant detriment to Rockies hitters in the first few games of a road trip. On a long home stand, Rockies hitters tend to see a lot of fastballs that move differently and they get into bad habits. Then they hit the road and see a bunch of breaking balls that move a lot more. The adjustment is difficult for hitters, just as it's difficult for pitchers. Using either home or road stats to project Rockies hitters is a mistake, as their true talent level usually sits somewhere in between the two.

[NBBrewFan]

6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

There's more to it than the NL West parks, actually. Studies have been done that long-term Rockies hitters really suffer on road trips, particularly early in road trips. Just as Rockies pitchers suffer from breaking balls not breaking at altitude, hitters suffer from seeing different pitch mixes and breaking ball tendencies between Coors and road parks. I'd have to dig up the study but there is a significant detriment to Rockies hitters in the first few games of a road trip. On a long home stand, Rockies hitters tend to see a lot of fastballs that move differently and get into bad habits. Then they hit the road and see a bunch of breaking balls that move a lot more. The adjustment is difficult for hitters, just as it's difficult for pitchers. Using either home or road stats to project Rockies hitters is a mistake, as their true talent level usually sits somewhere in between the two.

Yes, most of what you described is the "Coors effect" I noted. I was pointing out that some (but not a majority) of that difference might also be attributable to the fact that they have a higher percentage of games played at away stadiums that are pitcher friendly.  Depending on the study all 3 away parks for the Rockies in the NL West (SF, SD, LA) are in the bottom half or bottom third for "hitter-friendly" measurements.

I believe most of those Coors effect studies were done before implementation of the Humidor (although that only slightly adjusts for the altitude and other issues underlying the effect).  Last season 10 teams had added the Humidor to their home parks so there must be enough data that teams think it will assist with their current team makeup. 

[markedman5]

 

[Joseph Zarr]

23 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

Was just coming to post this as I didn't know where to put the active roster updates. LOL. This is a bummer. These types of mysterious injuries can linger. Hopefully he is a fast healer. Hopefully the testing doesn't reveal anything major - I was really looking forward to Luis' progress after a major career renaissance last year. Please hear me Baseball Gods: Luis deserves to be healthy. ?

[MVP2110]

If Urias misses opening day I expect a Jace/Brosseau platoon at 3b until he's ready. In 2021 Jace had a .351 obp & .735 ops vs RHP while Brosseau had a .321 obp & .747 ops vs LHP. I do wonder if this would allow Turang a shot at the OD roster to backup 2b & SS though.

[pitchleague]

This is kind of disappointing to hear.  Unfortunately, the lack of a proper, full spring training will likely attribute to this injury and many other similar incidents throughout the league.

I hope he rests properly and can get back to full strength by the end of April, at the latest.  Leg injuries need rest, and ballplayers have a tough time doing that and seem to re-aggravate things by thinking it feels okay when it really has not fully healed.

 

[brewers888]

The lineup being as thin as it is means we really can’t afford any injuries. Hopefully Urias comes back quickly but this is just another situation that shows why we should have acquired better hitters than Renfroe and Mccutchen this offseason. 

[NBBrewFan]

This is a forum to discuss the 2022 Milwaukee Brewers, isn't it?  From everything I see in the branding, that seems to be the case, but by some of the posts I'd have to wonder if I'm looking at the same team as others.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The joke almost writes itself but it’s still funny.

 

[Adam Rygg]

2 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

This is a forum to discuss the 2022 Milwaukee Brewers, isn't it?  From everything I see in the branding, that seems to be the case, but by some of the posts I'd have to wonder if I'm looking at the same team as others.

This thread in the forum covers all Hot Stove season news.

[superfly]

13 hours ago, brewers888 said:

Clearly the lockout accomplished nothing and we once again have to pick through the scraps while the big money teams continue to have payrolls twice as big as the small market teams.

BuT tHeY pAy tHe LuXuRy tAx wHiCh cOmEs bAcK tO tHe sMaLL mArKeTs

[NBBrewFan]

For those looking for more on the Freddie Freeman decision can find a nice article here

So it appears Freeman initially wanted more than the Goldschmidt deal (5 yrs/$130M) and the Braves offered 5/$135M then Freeman wanted a sixth year.  It sounds like the Braves countered by increasing to 5/$140M and it sounds indirectly that his representation was holding firm on 6 years (they didn't say Freeman, they said "his representatives seemed steadfast in finding such a deal for him"), so the Braves moved on to Olson.  The article points out that the contract he signed with the Dodgers was likely equivalent to the Braves offer due to differences in GA vs CA state taxes. Sounds a little like moving goalposts from Freeman and representation that was looking for the biggest $ amount and scoring a "win" for the client that led the Braves to move to option B.

[StearnsFTW]

On 3/20/2022 at 8:24 AM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Can we go back to the lockout?

The best part of this post is knowing that the ignore feature works in the new format.  I can't see his posts at all.

[StearnsFTW]

On 3/20/2022 at 10:32 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't really understand that deal from Story's perspective. I think the Twins, Yankees, or Astros would have offered similar deals and he wouldn't have to switch positions or deal with the fallout of replacing Bogaerts.

I think Story will do quite well away from Coors and wouldn't hesitate to give him that deal.

I'm just curious why you think that, because he has a career OPS of .752 away from Coors.  I don't understand why people like this deal for Boston personally. 

 

Edit:  I see you went over it in your next post.  I don't buy it personally.  This seems like it could become a terrible contract.  Obviously that doesnt really matter to Boston though.