MLB Hot Tub

[folly412]

Directionally, it's about time the Reds decided to rebuild.

Though it's seemed like every time that appeared to be the direction they pivot and throw a bunch of money at people only to not really be a contender anyway.

[Ulice Payne]

Vogelbach signs with the Pirates. 
 

My daughter and I were at his walk off game. There was no way for him to stay, but still sorry to see him go. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4 minutes ago, Ulice Payne said:

Vogelbach signs with the Pirates. 
 

My daughter and I were at his walk off game. There was no way for him to stay, but still sorry to see him go. 

I believe the Brewers brought him back last year with the thought that the universal DH would also be back. I'm actually sort of surprised they had no interest in him this year considering the DH now appears permanent. I suppose his skillset is somewhat redundant with Tellez's, though. 

[JosephC]

13 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

From a value perspective I agree they lost but not by a ton. Shedding all that payroll does have value beyond a potentially cheapskate owner putting money in his pocket. It also clears their 2 3b logjam. Also, they may feel like they are selling high on winker. They could be positioning to land a true SS and hopefully get lucky with pitching to have a good first half and add more pitching at the deadline.

I'm aware I'm grasping at straws a bit but it's possible this makes sense pending what they do going forward...

Glad to see the Draft Lottery serving its purpose and preventing MLB teams from tanking (I stole this from The Athletic).

[nate82]

The Braves are signing Matt Olson to an 8-year contract.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/braves-matt-olson-eight-year-contract-extension.html

[KeithStone53151]

Just now, nate82 said:

The Braves are signing Matt Olson to an 8-year contract.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/braves-matt-olson-eight-year-contract-extension.html

Is it just me, or is it a reeeeally bad look to trade for a new 1b AND immediately sign him to an 8 year extension while letting the face of the franchise at that same position walk? I'm curious what Freeman ends up getting because unless it's a pretty huge number, this is going to be a really bad look for Atlanta.

[nate82]

Just now, KeithStone53151 said:

Is it just me, or is it a reeeeally bad look to trade for a new 1b AND immediately sign him to an 8 year extension while letting the face of the franchise at that same position walk? I'm curious what Freeman ends up getting because unless it's a pretty huge number, this is going to be a really bad look for Atlanta.

It looks bad but sometimes you have to just move on.

Olson is a good player and is younger than Freeman.  Looking at it from a pure baseball perspective this is the right move for the Braves.  This is the business side of the game and fairy tale endings don't always come true.  The Braves valued Olson more than Freeman because he should produce longer than Freeman will.  

How much longer will Freeman be at the top compared to Olson?  I think the odds of Freeman being productive throughout his next contract are far less likely than compared to Olson being productive throughout this extension.  

[jerichoholicninja]

17 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Is it just me, or is it a reeeeally bad look to trade for a new 1b AND immediately sign him to an 8 year extension while letting the face of the franchise at that same position walk? I'm curious what Freeman ends up getting because unless it's a pretty huge number, this is going to be a really bad look for Atlanta.

Why does it look bad? Olson is pretty much the same hitter as Freeman and is both younger and costs less. Seems pretty smart to me. Signing players for sentimental reasons is how teams get in bad shape.

[KeithStone53151]

17 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

Why does it look bad? Olson is pretty much the same hitter as Freeman and is both younger and costs less. Seems pretty smart to me. Signing players for sentimental reasons is how teams get in bad shape.

Olson is younger, but Freeman is clearly the better player and is more likely to age better than Olson. Freeman is a pure hitter whole olson really is not. And when you factor in part of Olson's contract is arbitration and that Atlanta had to part with a ton of prospect value to get olson, this is a really bad look for Atlanta. That could all change if Freeman gets something like 6/200, but as of now it's a bad look for me.

[tigerbrew]

Wish the Brewers can get a big bat, McCutchen wasn't what I had in mind. Prefer to get someone like Schwarber instead.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, tigerbrew said:

Wish the Brewers can get a big bat, McCutchen wasn't what I had in mind. Prefer to get someone like Schwarber instead.

Schwarber hits dingers, strikes out a ton, and will likely bat .220. He feels like the kind of guy this team has pursued for years, to varying success. Considering what he is likely going to get paid, I'm ok with him not being here.

[sveumrules]

43 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Olson is younger, but Freeman is clearly the better player and is more likely to age better than Olson. Freeman is a pure hitter whole olson really is not. And when you factor in part of Olson's contract is arbitration and that Atlanta had to part with a ton of prospect value to get olson, this is a really bad look for Atlanta. That could all change if Freeman gets something like 6/200, but as of now it's a bad look for me.

Olson put up 5.8 WAR with a 153 OPS+ last year at age 27 vs a 127 OPS+ & about 4 WAR/140 games through age 26.

Also trimmed his K rate from 26.1% through 2020 to 16.8% in 2021, which is pretty nuts in this day & age.

Freeman has obviously been historically better, but if whatever changes Olson made last year stick he's a good bet to be the better player over the next 5-6 years, or however long Freddie ends up signing for.

[wibadgers23]

Not a whole lot of chatter around Castellanos. Maybe we could get him on a one year deal like we did with Grandal. He would look really good as our DH.

[nate82]

19 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Not a whole lot of chatter around Castellanos. Maybe we could get him on a one year deal like we did with Grandal. He would look really good as our DH.

Yeah it is very quiet on Castellanos.  The only rumors before the lockout was with the Marlins and that was before they signed Garcia.  I think right now as it stands if Castellanos is still sitting out there like Grandal and Turner were sitting out there I could see Stearns try and sneak in and steal him on a 1-year deal similar to the Grandal signing.  

Bryant has also been a relatively quiet name also with only the Rockies showing up recently.  Story is also someone who hasn't been mentioned much though there are some speculation on the Twins and Story.  

Rizzo has been linked to the Yankees as a fallback if they didn't get Olson.  Schwarber has also been somewhat quiet on him but I think he will return to the Red Sox.  

Conforto is also someone that hasn't been mentioned at all.  Like I said previously he may have to wait until the draft pick compensation is no longer associated with him.  I think the players and the owners will probably want to avoid this if possible so Conforto may have to take a 1-year deal. 

[SeaBass]

Freeman is 32 and Olson will be 28 in two weeks. 4 years is a long time in baseball years. With Olson's 8 year contract he will be 36 in his final year. It's pretty likely Freeman wants to be older than 36 when his next contract ends.

Lorenzo Cain is about to turn 36 next month in his final season and people around here can't wait for him to be off the books (and have been counting for seemingly 3 years now).

[KeithStone53151]

40 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Olson put up 5.8 WAR with a 153 OPS+ last year at age 27 vs a 127 OPS+ & about 4 WAR/140 games through age 26.

Also trimmed his K rate from 26.1% through 2020 to 16.8% in 2021, which is pretty nuts in this day & age.

Freeman has obviously been historically better, but if whatever changes Olson made last year stick he's a good bet to be the better player over the next 5-6 years, or however long Freddie ends up signing for.

Certainly not unfair points, but that is a very very big IF. The k rate decrease is pretty nuts I'll agree. I think 3 years from now, Freeman is still the more valuable player. 

[Robocaller]

50 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Certainly not unfair points, but that is a very very big IF. The k rate decrease is pretty nuts I'll agree. I think 3 years from now, Freeman is still the more valuable player. 

If you go by WAR (b. ref), Olsen was better than Freeman and better than every of Freeman's seasons since 6 years ago. 
Given the difference in ages and the lower cost, Olsen seems like a better choice.

[NBBrewFan]

If the Brewers win a World Series and follow it up by letting go of multiple faces of the franchise while adding younger, arguably better talent, I wouldn't bat an eye.  I would probably still be hung over from the post-win celebration.  Five months later?  You bet!

[KeithStone53151]

27 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

If the Brewers win a World Series and follow it up by letting go of multiple faces of the franchise while adding younger, arguably better talent, I wouldn't bat an eye.  I would probably still be hung over from the post-win celebration.  Five months later?  You bet!

Olson is not better than Freeman, hearing that repeated as if it's fact is just silly. Olson was better last year than Freeman by a very small margin and aided largely by defensive metrics. Freeman has been and currently is the better player. Also a true pure hitter generally won't regress as quickly as a hitter that relies heavily on obp/power. The only way there's even an argument is if 2021 is the new norm for olson and not simply having a career year in a hitters age 27 season. I would be surprised if we saw a sub 20 k rate from Olson again in 2022.

[NBBrewFan]

22 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Olson is not better than Freeman, hearing that repeated as if it's fact is just silly. Olson was better last year than Freeman by a very small margin and aided largely by defensive metrics. Freeman has been and currently is the better player. Also a true pure hitter generally won't regress as quickly as a hitter that relies heavily on obp/power. The only way there's even an argument is if 2021 is the new norm for olson and not simply having a career year in a hitters age 27 season. I would be surprised if we saw a sub 20 k rate from Olson again in 2022.

I didn't say Olson is better.  When I use the term "arguably better" I mean that they are similar, but you can argue one is better than the other, and you have.  It's not silly to say the guy with better stats for the year is the better talent (I use fangraphs and Olson's Offense and Defense numbers were better than Freemans) so I'm not sure where the defensive metrics matter if the offensive metrics also swing to Olson. Yes Freeman has more years of data, but it's not like Olson's 2021 came out of nowhere as he put 2 earlier years of >3,5 fWAR. You can argue that there's enough noise in WAR to make the small difference between them irrelevant and I would agree. They both had similar careers through their age 27 season. Freeman also had his worst k% in his year 26 season, followed by a significant drop (that he maintained and has gotten better over time) as did Olson.  If anything I think there's plenty of data that they are pretty similar.  I don't think it's outrageous to assume that Olson (just entering his prime) is likely to outperform Freeman (who's age 32 season is 2022) over the next few years.  Will Olson hit at the same level for another 5 years?  I don't know, but I think the Braves believe that to be the case.

[JackNicholson1974]

I dont think trading for Olson and then extending him looks bad at all.  I am sure the Braves made a good offer to Freddie, maybe even a 5 year offer - that would take him through his age 37 season. Sounds like Freeman wants 6? And Olson is entering his prime while Freeman is about the exit his prime.  It is true that Freeman has been the better hitter, but when you factor in age, power, obp and defense I think it might be fair to say that in years 1-3 of the Olson contract that he would provide similar value as Freeman and in years 4-6 provide considerably more value than Freeman will.

Not signing him to an extension after giving up all those prospects would be a bad move, IMO.

[torts]

Rizzo back to NYY for 2 years, $32 mil with an opt out after first year.  So, freemans options are shrinking... Without that contract ?

[MVP2110]

Brewers should absolutely go after Luke Voit now that the Yankees signed Rizzo

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Have to say, it's a little disappointing that all these contenders are getting in on the Athletics' fire sale, but the Brewers are apparently sitting it out. Olson, Chapman and Bassit all would have been nice. I still get the feeling that the Brewers have one big surprise move in them yet, but watching all these studs move around is a little troubling.

[Jopal78]

15 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Have to say, it's a little disappointing that all these contenders are getting in on the Athletics' fire sale, but the Brewers are apparently sitting it out. Olson, Chapman and Bassit all would have been nice. I still get the feeling that the Brewers have one big surprise move in them yet, but watching all these studs move around is a little troubling.

Probably a result of the overall quality of their farm system. Not enough blue chippers/high ceiling players in their system, nor any minor leaguers close to being ready who also project as everyday players.