Packers 2022 NFL Draft Discussion

[Joseph Zarr]

So, a late Rd IDL/DT prospect. Interesting. Seems about right.

[brewcrewdue80]

12 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

The Athletic is saying that it's 'widely believed' that the Saints are interested in a QB in the 1st round. The more QBs that go ahead of us - the better as guys we need drop to us (unless we want a QB in the 1st round ? ). 

The Saints have a lot of needs, but WR and OT is two of their biggest (along with QB). 

Link (subscription required): 

https://theathletic.com/3232215/2022/04/06/howe-notebook-inside-the-davante-adams-trade-baker-mayfields-status-saints-maneuvering/

Won't lie but I would fear that their trade to acquire a 2nd pick ahead of us could result in them running a combo QB-WR ahead of us knowing we are selecting one in the 1st round.

 

Interesting to look at WalterFootball.  There the big board they have has Alec Pierce at 25. 

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2022APierce.php

There are 26 strengths listed.  2 weaknesses.  Basically his ability after the catch to break it for big chunks of yards.  Further down they make a comp to him believed to be Jordy Nelson as who they could see him being.   I can get that if you watch the very last catch he makes in that video they have for him.  Fully feels like watching Jordy up the seam in to endzone.

 

At least if you miss your favorites(Olave, Watson, Burks, or Datson)  It almost reads that Pierce could be darkhorse #1 of the group.  You wouldn't need to get upset that you missed on the other top WRs. 

 

Reading up it would sound like the duo of Burks and Pierce then would compliment the other. 

 

Above someone mentioned looking for 2 OL in the first 4 picks.  I see 1 being likely but the 2nd should come in the Runyan 6th or 7th round selection.  Jenkins and Myers are recent 2nd round picks.  With Bak locked up, Runyan's production, you are kinda wasting a chance to improve the team elsewhere if Bak and Jenkins return to form. 

LB or someone on the defensive front should be considered in 1 of the 4 picks.(if Gutey allows us to have 4picks in 1st and 2nd rounds)  11 of Walter Football's big board would be that type from 32-60.  Datson is the only WR that is in that range.  Only 3 OL in that range.   Those in the trenches guys always see a few drafted later than expected.  Though typically a lot of those are 1st rd expectations that are selected by the time 50 rolls around. 

As the draft rankings shape up it would feel like what GB needs are where the talent filling those needs are projected.  We should have a good draft.

[reillymcshane]

I wanted to share that The Athletic has posted their 2022 Draft Guide by Dane Brugler. They call it 'the Beast' - and rightfully so. It's a 288 page guide (a pdf) to hundreds of players. It's really pretty awesome.

Of course, the downside is you have to have a subscription to get it. Still, if you do, it's an amazing resource for the draft.

https://theathletic.com/3233612/2022/04/07/2022-nfl-draft-guide-the-beast-dane-brugler/

[madbad2000]

1 hour ago, reillymcshane said:

I wanted to share that The Athletic has posted their 2022 Draft Guide by Dane Brugler. They call it 'the Beast' - and rightfully so. It's a 288 page guide (a pdf) to hundreds of players. It's really pretty awesome.

Of course, the downside is you have to have a subscription to get it. Still, if you do, it's an amazing resource for the draft.

https://theathletic.com/3233612/2022/04/07/2022-nfl-draft-guide-the-beast-dane-brugler/

I'll second this recommendation. The beast is a great asset if you're into NFL Draft coverage.

[Joseph Zarr]

Thanks for the heads up on 'the Beast'. That sounds like quite the tantalizing piece of 'literature'!

I just wanted to post:

I just realized we are witnessing the lead up to a Draft whereby 8 Teams have multiple 1st Round picks. This is patently insane. That's all I wanted to say. This has to be some kind of record.

[Joseph Zarr]

Interesting. We hear quite a bit on Raimann (who is already 24-25 yo). Now, we're starting to hear about his teammate who is clearly also highly thought of. Will be curious to see where and when he ends up.

[reillymcshane]

39 minutes ago, Julio Muchacho said:

Thanks for the heads up on 'the Beast'. That sounds like quite the tantalizing piece of 'literature'!

I just wanted to post:

I just realized we are witnessing the lead up to a Draft whereby 8 Teams have multiple 1st Round picks. This is patently insane. That's all I wanted to say. This has to be some kind of record.

I'm just starting to look at 'the Beast' and it's pretty cool. Obviously, I can't give it to people - but if you are interested in seeing what they do, here's a snippet (Chris Olave's write up). They do this for 400 players.

PS - I think you can sign up for a free pass with the Athletic. Or get it cheap for a few months. Or if someone you know has it, they can give you a 30 day pass. They limit the 30 day passes - and I think I've given mine out (but I can check if you have no other options). 

PS - this is just a snippet of the guide. I think that's cool to post. If not, let me know and I'll remove.

 

[Sixtolezcano]

If Olave is available I think they select him at 22, otherwise they go with an edge rusher

[Joseph Zarr]

I believe I've found my number 1 late round prospect in Appalachian St. Interior Offensive Lineman: 'Baer Hunter'. Seems self-explanatory. I've never seen him play. Know nothing about him. BUT, it would appear: this is destiny.

[PeaveyFury]

3 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

If Olave is available I think they select him at 22, otherwise they go with an edge rusher

Olave seems the one possible 'slide' that could be there at 22, and if he is they should grab him. Otherwise, my gut says they take whatever guy inexplicably slides to that spot and they'll get immense value. Ala Bulaga, where no one thought he'd be there at 23. Then, hope London or Burks is there at 28.

I just can't get a good feel for where guys like Pierce, Dotson, Pickens and Watson are ACTUALLY going to go. Most have them 'graded' as 2nds, but they're being mocked all over the place right now.

[PeaveyFury]

Updated NFL.com mock today has us trading 28 and a third to move up to 21 to take Karlaftis, then taking Olave at 22. Skyy Moore and Abraham Lucas in the 2nd, and that's a pretty great draft.

https://www.nfl.com/news/four-round-2022-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-seahawks-saints-trade-into-top-five-for-qb

[NBBrewFan]

11 minutes ago, PeaveyFury said:

Updated NFL.com mock today has us trading 28 and a third to move up to 21 to take Karlaftis, then taking Olave at 22. Skyy Moore and Abraham Lucas in the 2nd, and that's a pretty great draft.

https://www.nfl.com/news/four-round-2022-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-seahawks-saints-trade-into-top-five-for-qb

Uggh. They give up their 3rd and a 4th for that.  In an extremely deep draft just to box out others?  That would be a Gute move to give away draft capital. I'm not an Olave hater, but of the many 1st round WR all have a higher ceiling.  Sure Olave is likely to be the best for 2022 of the available late first round, but beyond that? 

[PeaveyFury]

4 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

Uggh. They give up their 3rd and a 4th for that.  In an extremely deep draft just to box out others?  That would be a Gute move to give away draft capital. I'm not an Olave hater, but of the many 1st round WR all have a higher ceiling.  Sure Olave is likely to be the best for 2022 of the available late first round, but beyond that? 

The trade up was for Karlaftis, not Olave.

And this isn’t the first time I’ve seen ‘Gute move’ implying wasting draft capital. Other than the 4th for Love, what are all these other moves to waste capital?

[NBBrewFan]

Did we just lose a bunch of posts?  I responded to PeaveyFury's reply to me and that is gone.  Also we are on Page 5 for this topic and I swear we were on Page 7 before.

Edit: The number of pages for the Packers discussion is now 18 when it was 24 before.  I don't know if it is just a change in the number of posts per page, but my post went MIA too so not sure what happened.

[LouisEly]

Now, we're starting to hear about his teammate who is clearly also highly thought of. Will be curious to see where and when he ends up.

You need to start following people other than Pauline.  Most others (PFF, The Draft Network, NFL.com, etc.) have had Goedeke in their top 100-150 since the end of the season.  PFF has Goedeke at #100.  NFL.com has a grade of 6.22 which puts him roughly in that same range (mid-3rd to early 4th).  Most are projecting him to guard because of his short-ish arms (32 1/4"). 

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, PeaveyFury said:

Updated NFL.com mock today has us trading 28 and a third to move up to 21 to take Karlaftis, then taking Olave at 22. Skyy Moore and Abraham Lucas in the 2nd, and that's a pretty great draft.

https://www.nfl.com/news/four-round-2022-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-seahawks-saints-trade-into-top-five-for-qb

That's just one of the four guys on NFL.com.  Zierlein is the best over there, probably followed by Schrager who has GB going with Burks at #22 and Wyatt at #28, which I think is very, very possible.

[brewcrewdue80]

Apr 25, 2019: Seahawks traded 2019 1st round pick (21st overall, Darnell Savage) to Packers for 2019 1st round pick (30th overall subsequently traded, Deandre Baker), 2019 4th round pick (114th overall subsequently traded, Dru Samia) and 2019 4th round pick (118th overall subsequently traded, Hjalte Froholdt)

 

2 4th rd picks higher cost than I remembered. St killers.  Steenburgen was 3rd selection 1 pick before Terry McClaren 2 picks before Chase Winovich.  Loves 4th rd led to GB selecting Deguara in the 3rd who was projected 5th and 6th rounds

2 hours ago, PeaveyFury said:

The trade up was for Karlaftis, not Olave.

And this isn’t the first time I’ve seen ‘Gute move’ implying wasting draft capital. Other than the 4th for Love, what are all these other moves to waste capital?

 

[PeaveyFury]

Three 4th round picks in two total trades seems a pretty weak argument to further a "wasting draft picks via trade" narrative, especially when two of the three were used to target a guy that started from day 1 at a position of need, which I believe is the main complaint about using the other 4th to acquire the other guy. Considering the grand slams he hits in the early rounds otherwise, it's an odd narrative that I've seen from multiple people that seems fairly unreasonable.

[Joseph Zarr]

5 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Now, we're starting to hear about his teammate who is clearly also highly thought of. Will be curious to see where and when he ends up.

You need to start following people other than Pauline.  Most others (PFF, The Draft Network, NFL.com, etc.) have had Goedeke in their top 100-150 since the end of the season.  PFF has Goedeke at #100.  NFL.com has a grade of 6.22 which puts him roughly in that same range (mid-3rd to early 4th).  Most are projecting him to guard because of his short-ish arms (32 1/4"). 

I follow quite a few people, amigo. And, I still consider Tony Pauline one of the best and most consistent.  I am merely pointing out all the hype has been about Raimann for quite some time (which it has - with some even sneaking him into Rd 1. Personally, at his age, and knowing the consensus seems to be he is still rough around the edges, that would be a pass for me in Rd 1) and this is the first I’ve heard of Goedeke in a bit. That’s literally all I am saying. And, as I’ve said before, I just don’t find much enjoyment at NFL.com and, well, that’s my perogative.

 

Regardless, to your tune,  I think you’d enjoy the Zierlein; Bruegler; Feldman pod just released. It’s an easy and in depth listen if you have the time:

 

 

[Joseph Zarr]

Such an unfortunate outcome for a late round prospect. And, it’s really nice to see these sentiments concerning the Packers’ staff on hand given what I saw when Ojabo went down.

[NBBrewFan]

10 hours ago, PeaveyFury said:

Three 4th round picks in two total trades seems a pretty weak argument to further a "wasting draft picks via trade" narrative, especially when two of the three were used to target a guy that started from day 1 at a position of need, which I believe is the main complaint about using the other 4th to acquire the other guy. 

Since you were responding to a post of mine:

1) I never used the term "wasting".  I typed "giving away".  Those are different concepts.

2) I didn't listen to butterflies flying out of my behind when I made that comment. I saw an article (acme or Cheesehead TV) that had a statistical analysis using draft position values (99% sure they DIDN'T use the Jimmy Johnson values) to evaluate Gute's historical draft tendencies.  The conclusion was that (with the current limited data) that Gute was more likely to give away draft capital to move up than to move down and acquire draft capital.

One of the weaknesses of such an approach is (obviously) that there isn't a ton of data so those instances could be exceptions to his overall draft philosophy and just happened to occur early in his career.  Also, it assumes every year is equivalent.  They aren't.  Look no further than this year where most observers/experts see this being a much deeper draft than we've seen for years. That makes some sense given there were many athletes that stayed in school because of the weird data from the 2020 pandemic year. So any value system for ranking picks really should account for the depth or lack of depth in a certain year.  Historically you can use actual data to see how each draft class turned out and come up with a value for each position plus a variance or standard deviation where for good years you can use a value + var/stdev for valuations and for bad years value - var/stdev.  Of course for any current year, good/bad are subjective and sometimes the experts think this is going to be good and when the fat lady is done, it really wasn't.  A good example is the 2016 MLB draft where so few 1st round picks have/are likely to have MLB careers of any significance.  I agree with the narrative that this is a deep draft, hence tossing a 3rd and 4th pick to move up from 28 doesn't compute in that scenario. 

Quote

Considering the grand slams he hits in the early rounds otherwise, it's an odd narrative that I've seen from multiple people that seems fairly unreasonable.

We're in a topic to discuss the NFL draft where on every evaluation I have seen there is a strengths and weaknesses analysis for every prospect.  Everyone has strengths and weaknesses.  As you have stated, he's hit some big shots in the first/second round.  He's also found little in the later rounds.  Those are strengths and weaknesses.  I don't see why it can't be mentioned that he gives away draft capital.  I didn't say he's a crap GM because he gives away draft capital.  I actually like the job he is doing. I know this is a fan site and many people are fanatics, but I'm not as invested in a narrative that the sun is always shining.  I still follow them even when they are the dumbest guys in the room (see mid 80's to mid 2000 Brewers). The teams I like will make mistakes (IMHO) and we could debate those mistakes, but to say just because they have X,Y and Z strenghts, it's unreasonable to mention A or B weaknesses doesn't seem reasonable to me.

[PeaveyFury]

I can respect the distinction between 'wasted' and 'giving away' in that context. I had taken giving away as 'throwing away' or 'handing over with little merit' vs. 'trading away'.

I think if the narrative is that Gute has shown willingness to give up a pick or two to move up to get a guy they have targeted, that's certainly fair and accurate. But, the narratives in some places on the internet has been spun to 'Gute is going to waste one or two of our first or second rounders', which I think is an unfair conclusion. Like Thompson, I think the current FO sees the value in 'taking more bites at the apple', but unlike his predecessor, they also see the value in sacrificing a mid-round pick to move up for a guy they have head and shoulders above the others on their board. And that's not a bad strategy at all.

I think there's this belief that the Packers may (and some are arguing for reasons I don't understand, should) package their 1st to move up to the top-12 and take a player, which I don't agree with whatsoever. But, if they package a 3rd and one of the 4ths to jump up and grab a guy who slides, I have zero problem with that. 

In the scenario that started this conversation, the Packers ended up with one of the top-tier edge guys in Karlaftis, one of the best, IMO, plausible options at WR in Olave, and still had both seconds to draft Moore and Lucas. Two instant impact WR options, an excellent option for OT depth who will likely start at RT soon, and a potentially dominant edge guy in Karlaftis. Add in their remaining 4th and 5th, and you've had a HR draft on paper at the expense of an extra 4th that you already had and their 3rd.

[brewcrewdue80]

15 hours ago, PeaveyFury said:

Three 4th round picks in two total trades seems a pretty weak argument to further a "wasting draft picks via trade" narrative, especially when two of the three were used to target a guy that started from day 1 at a position of need, which I believe is the main complaint about using the other 4th to acquire the other guy. Considering the grand slams he hits in the early rounds otherwise, it's an odd narrative that I've seen from multiple people that seems fairly unreasonable.

 

Who was going to start at safety for GB in 2020? Traded Dix, Gutekunst acquired Amos.  The issue I've stated a long time was Gary was in a tier of at least 6 similar type players at the time. Gutey was unable to pull a trade to move down and acquire extra draft picks.  12 down to 21 is 400pts on trade calculator.  30 up to 21 is 180pts.  220 pts is equivalent to 10th pick of 3rd round. More points to move up and acquire Savage if you didn't use your pick on him right there. Montez Sweat went 26th and has outproduced Gary. Deebo Samuel was drafted 36th. Wasted opportunities on being aware if 6 players with say grade 88-89 at position you plan to address and trade values going from 50points per selection to 25pts 6 below yours screams trade down.  So much volume wasted. And Love that had no reason to be move up for. 

Most of 2nd rd is 10 pts per selection. Starting from 7th selection 2019 PFRef has 6 1st rd with 20 or higher car pts.  2nd rd 5 of them. 3rd rd 4 of them.

2020 make it 13pts or higher from 7th selection- 9 in 1st  10 in 2nd.  4 in 3rd.  It's almost like the blueprint is to trade below 18th selection and use what 4th and 5th you can to acquire 2nd or early 3rd selections who dropped far below projected value or just can't believe on your board is there.

Maybe Gutey realized this for 2021 by staying put. And he'll  do it again with the 4picks they own 1st and 2nd.

[PeaveyFury]

Problem is BCD80, those are only hypothetical trades that exist in your own head and assigning values to players based on what some guy named Walter (or any equivalent) posts on what is basically a fan site in the end. Sooner or later, the fan base will realize that Gute is really good at what he does, assigns values to players that are based on their great scouting department, and generally gets proven right in the end. He's done more than enough to earn the benefit of the doubt from all but the most staunch fans that still can't admit they were horribly wrong on the Gary pick and cling to grades assigned to draft picks by fan sites, who never actually go back and re-grade the drafts a few years later to see what picks were ACTUALLY As and which were Ds and Fs.

In the end, Gute has more information, better scouting, and has largely proven smarter than us fans. Sooner or later we'll have to acknowledge that we're just completing pretend mock drafts and obtaining good 'grades', while he's actually building a good football team, as he has every year.

 

[PeaveyFury]

Anyway, back to the current draft discussion:

I do like what that NFL.com mock did in keeping 22 in our pocket while packaging picks to move up from 28. Seems like a nice way to guarantee essentially back-to-back picks if you move up to 21. Allows for either a double-dip at WR without any other WR-needy team jumping in, or to grab a value guy and a WR.