Packers 2022 NFL Draft Discussion

[Joseph Zarr]

It would certainly appear: The TE group in this year's draft is interesting. Not top heavy by any measure at all BUT there are intriguing projects with tools to develop. And, if we couple that with the Packers TE situation and current TE room, it will be a position group we 'should' keep following. I'll report any Pro Day or Combine infos as I get them and hope you all do the same. As per usual: Going to be a fun draft season!

[Joseph Zarr]

Not a homer take but kind of a homer take. I honestly wouldn't mind Fergy at all. With way people are rating him, he could give great day 3 value. Early on at UW he was thought about as a possible first round talent (after redshirt soph year, early rankings going into rd junior season had him very high). QB issues really hurt him this year. Nagy raved about him during senior bowl week and then he had a very good game. He can run block and scouts rave about his hands (plus us Badger fans already know that). His combine will be very interesting.

 

Overall I think the combine will be huge for this TE class because it is so tightly bunched and people are all over with the pecking order. Some need to separate themselves a bit. I also like Madbad really like McBride. If Big Dog Lewis is back again next season, it gives you time to develop his blocking more and let him do more of what he is best at. I want Tonyan back. Not sure what happened to his blocking this season but he has become a favorite of mine.

 

I definitely think Ferguson is a value pick for sure. I would classify him in the 'just a solid player' group. Probably underrated and we honestly probably don't know what we have there - as you point to, there is a definitive Mertz factor at play here. It will be interesting to see where his draft stock is perceived as we get closer to the draft. Personally, I see him landing in that Rd 3-4 range. Decent value there for a solid player.

[Joseph Zarr]

Also, for those who are unaware, this is One of my most enjoyable 'approaching the Draft' morning rituals:

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

 

Entirely too fun. I typically route myself to Packers (obviously, lol); 4 Rd Draft; Fast speed. As the draft approaches I probably do 5-6/day. LOL. Regardless, just a great and FREE tool - I don't need to pay extra for trade proposals. A real bonus as TDN charges you for any perks or, heck, I think they charge you just to use their Simulator now?

[patrickgpe]

i use fanspeak, i just tried this one for the first time and I think i like it better. The trade offers i got were ridiculous though.

[Joseph Zarr]

i use fanspeak, i just tried this one for the first time and I think i like it better. The trade offers i got were ridiculous though.

 

LOL. Yeah, I tend to honor "I'll only accept a trade offer that actually makes sense". There tends to be quite a bit of future Draft Capital offered so I typically go 2 routes and do 2 Mocks a day - one where I explore and accept or counter meaningful trades and one where I reject all trades and just make my picks.

 

EDIT to ADD:

 

I forgot to mention I do enjoy Fan Speak when Ross Uglem’s Packer tilted Draft Board is up. He generally goes very RAS heavy at the positions the Packers historically apply that metric etc A fun way to draft Packers in a mock.

[Joseph Zarr]

To our TE discussion (and bringing in WR's of which there is clearly also a lot of depth - add this group to OL and Edge):

 

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2022/2/24/22949442/nfl-draft-2022-theres-a-lot-of-hurt-receivers-and-not-many-tight-ends-justyn-ross-chris-olave

 

* This is a link to what is essentially strictly a podcast listen. Entire listen is an hour and ten minutes.

[CheezWizHed]

To our TE discussion (and bringing in WR's of which there is clearly also a lot of depth - add this group to OL and Edge):

 

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2022/2/24/22949442/nfl-draft-2022-theres-a-lot-of-hurt-receivers-and-not-many-tight-ends-justyn-ross-chris-olave

 

* This is a link to what is essentially strictly a podcast listen. Entire listen is an hour and ten minutes.

 

Another meeting that should've been an email? I went to "read" this earlier and saw it was a podcast. I've not listened to one of this in a long time, but beat writers that fancy themselves as TV journalists are painful to listen to...

[Joseph Zarr]

To our TE discussion (and bringing in WR's of which there is clearly also a lot of depth - add this group to OL and Edge):

 

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2022/2/24/22949442/nfl-draft-2022-theres-a-lot-of-hurt-receivers-and-not-many-tight-ends-justyn-ross-chris-olave

 

* This is a link to what is essentially strictly a podcast listen. Entire listen is an hour and ten minutes.

 

Another meeting that should've been an email? I went to "read" this earlier and saw it was a podcast. I've not listened to one of this in a long time, but beat writers that fancy themselves as TV journalists are painful to listen to...

 

I actually don't dislike Mosqueda whatsoever. He is a really good guy at analyzing Edges. Just offering it up in the Draft Thread - tis why I made the asterisk...I'll go back and bold it tho so it is more discernible.

[reillymcshane]

Most mocks have the Packers going after WR or Edge/DL guys. Part of this is need. Part of this is that there's a lot of depth in those positions.

 

Also, there's a solid Top 5 tier of WRs - Garrett Wilson, Treylon Burks, Drake London, Jameson Williams and Chris Olave. But another guy showing up at the end of the 1st round (and in some mocks for the Packers) is WR Jahan Dotson from Penn State.

[homer]

I've seen a few people say the difference between pick 15 and 60 is very small this year. Good idea to trade out of the 1st if you can. (I realize I say this every year)

[LouisEly]

I've seen a few people say the difference between pick 15 and 60 is very small this year. Good idea to trade out of the 1st if you can. (I realize I say this every year)

That seems to be the case this year.

 

I don't know that the QB class is good enough for Houston to take one 3rd overall, but it might make a lot of sense for Houston to move up from #37 to #28 and leapfrog DET (who has #32 and #34) to get one. Same with Washington at #42, they may want to leapfrog DET and HOU. A trade that might make a lot of sense is for GB and HOU to swap picks #28 and #37, with GB and HOU swapping 3rd round picks (#92 and #68) and HOU adding one or two of their 6th round picks. If GB can move up to #68, perhaps one of those top 60 guys will still be there or GB can give up a day 3 pick to move up into the top 60 giving GB three of those 15-60 picks. A trade with WAS might be GB's #28 and #171 for WAS #42 and #73.

 

That being said, those teams may want to leapfrog TB at #27 too because they will be looking for a QB. But if TB grabs one, that may increase the demand to get whoever is left at #28.

[CheezWizHed]

To our TE discussion (and bringing in WR's of which there is clearly also a lot of depth - add this group to OL and Edge):

 

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2022/2/24/22949442/nfl-draft-2022-theres-a-lot-of-hurt-receivers-and-not-many-tight-ends-justyn-ross-chris-olave

 

* This is a link to what is essentially strictly a podcast listen. Entire listen is an hour and ten minutes.

 

Another meeting that should've been an email? I went to "read" this earlier and saw it was a podcast. I've not listened to one of this in a long time, but beat writers that fancy themselves as TV journalists are painful to listen to...

 

I actually don't dislike Mosqueda whatsoever. He is a really good guy at analyzing Edges. Just offering it up in the Draft Thread - tis why I made the asterisk...I'll go back and bold it tho so it is more discernible.

 

Sorry, I wasn't knocking your post. I was at Acme Packing Co earlier before reading your post.

[Joseph Zarr]

 

I actually don't dislike Mosqueda whatsoever. He is a really good guy at analyzing Edges. Just offering it up in the Draft Thread - tis why I made the asterisk...I'll go back and bold it tho so it is more discernible.

 

Sorry, I wasn't knocking your post. I was at Acme Packing Co earlier before reading your post.

 

No worries mahn. I didn't take it as a 'knock' per se. All good. The bold, however, seemed like a deft 'professional' touch. Some refinement to my otherwise meaningless thoughts.

[reillymcshane]

I've seen a few people say the difference between pick 15 and 60 is very small this year. Good idea to trade out of the 1st if you can. (I realize I say this every year)

That seems to be the case this year.

 

I don't know that the QB class is good enough for Houston to take one 3rd overall, but it might make a lot of sense for Houston to move up from #37 to #28 and leapfrog DET (who has #32 and #34) to get one. Same with Washington at #42, they may want to leapfrog DET and HOU. A trade that might make a lot of sense is for GB and HOU to swap picks #28 and #37, with GB and HOU swapping 3rd round picks (#92 and #68) and HOU adding one or two of their 6th round picks. If GB can move up to #68, perhaps one of those top 60 guys will still be there or GB can give up a day 3 pick to move up into the top 60 giving GB three of those 15-60 picks. A trade with WAS might be GB's #28 and #171 for WAS #42 and #73.

 

That being said, those teams may want to leapfrog TB at #27 too because they will be looking for a QB. But if TB grabs one, that may increase the demand to get whoever is left at #28.

QBs are weird this year. Most rankings put the top ones no higher than #20 or so on draft boards. And that's being generous. However, QBs tend to rise up in drafts (though not always). It only takes one team to fall in love with a guy. The Packers should want the QBs to do well at the combine and in workouts. Drive them into the first round - push down players we can use.

[homer]

I think Leo Chenal may have made some money at the combine:

 

[wallus]

I think Leo Chenal may have made some money at the combine:

 

 

Can't wait to read all of the Luke Kuechly and Brian Urlacher comparisons...

[reillymcshane]

I think Leo Chenal may have made some money at the combine:

 

I read one guy (I think with The Athletic) saying they expected Chenel to blow away some people with his strength.

 

Most mocks have him going in the 3rd-4th round. But someone might fall in love with the guy. He's a beast.

 

Chenal weighed in at 250 pounds - which is lighter than with Wisconsin (he was around 260-265). Scouts seem to think the lighter weight will do him better in the pros to improve his speed and movement.

 

As you said, he did well.

 

One take:

 

Leo Chenal, Wisconsin: At 6-2 and 250 pounds, Chenal running 4.53 was awesome. He looks thick on film and not necessarily that fast. But that number will stick to his draft profile. He's a thumping downhill type who we now know has some speed in his arsenal. Those jumps were tremendous too, and frankly, a bit shocking. Good for him.

 

He had the highest vertical jump of the main LBs in attendance.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2022-nfl-scouting-combine-montana-states-troy-andersen-wisconsins-leo-chenal-shine-in-linebacker-workouts/

[sixtolezcano16]

I think Leo Chenal may have made some money at the combine:

 

I read one guy (I think with The Athletic) saying they expected Chenel to blow away some people with his strength.

 

Most mocks have him going in the 3rd-4th round. But someone might fall in love with the guy. He's a beast.

 

Chenal weighed in at 250 pounds - which is lighter than with Wisconsin (he was around 260-265). Scouts seem to think the lighter weight will do him better in the pros to improve his speed and movement.

 

As you said, he did well.

 

 

 

One take:

 

Leo Chenal, Wisconsin: At 6-2 and 250 pounds, Chenal running 4.53 was awesome. He looks thick on film and not necessarily that fast. But that number will stick to his draft profile. He's a thumping downhill type who we now know has some speed in his arsenal. Those jumps were tremendous too, and frankly, a bit shocking. Good for him.

 

He had the highest vertical jump of the main LBs in attendance.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2022-nfl-scouting-combine-montana-states-troy-andersen-wisconsins-leo-chenal-shine-in-linebacker-workouts/

 

 

I have followed Leo since he first stepped foot on the Camp Randall field. He has been the most impressive of all the recent linebackers that have played for the Badgers. He is the classic high impact football player that really has demonstrated outstanding athletic skills at the Combine.

 

He has demonstrated superb pass rush skills and plays the run strongly. With the 4.53 40 yard, he will be able to play sideline-to-sideline and will cover those running backs from the backfield. He has excellent tackling skills and I was hoping he would be available at pick 60 for the Packers, however I believe they will need to trade up to get him now (in the low 50s).

[reillymcshane]

With Rodgers onboard and the expected tagging of Adams, time for draft fun. Here's my rundown for our 1st rounder:

 

1) I do not expect the team to pick a QB or RB due to lack of need and the talent at position.

 

2) I don't think we will pick a TE as the talent isn't worth our 1st rounder.

 

3) I don't think the team picks a corner due to the investment in Stokes and Alexander - but if the value is there, sure.

 

4) There will be a group of players that most likely be unavailable by the time we pick. These are the guys who never - or almost never - fall to the Packers in current mock drafts. Here's that list:

 

- Evan Neal, OT

- Aidan Hutchinson, Edge

- Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge

- Derek Stingley Jr., CB

- Ikem Ekwonu, OT

- Kyle Hamilton, S

- Ahmad Gardner, CB

- Jordan Davis, DL

 

5) This leaves us with a swath of players who might be available when we pick. No doubt other players will rise, and some of these guys fall. I've included guys who have appeared on multiple mock drafts. I think I got the main ones, but there may be others. No matter, here's a starting list.

 

WR

- Garrett Wilson, Ohio St.

- Jameson Williams, Alabama

- Drake London, USC

- Chris Olave, Ohio St.

- Treylon Burks, Arkansas

- Jahan Dotson, Penn St.

 

OL

- Trevor Penning, OT, N. Iowa

- Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan

- Charles Cross, OT, Miss St.

- Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College

- Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

- Kenyon Green, OG, Texas A&M

 

EDGE/DL

- George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue

- Devonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia

- Travon Walker, DL, Georgia

- Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida St.

- David Ojabo, Edge, Michigan

- Boye Mafe, edge, Minnesota

- Travis Jones, DT, Connecticut

 

LB

- Devin Lloyd, Utah

- Nakobe Dean, Georgia

 

DBs

- Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

- Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

- Andrew Booth Jr., CB

- Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

[Joseph Zarr]

I'm just going to keep beating this drum: I don't believe there is a better talent evaluator and personnel guy in the entire NFL draft process than the great Tony Pauline. I've been following him for years. And, he just keeps delivering. Great video podcast here with Eric Crocker re: post-Combine fall-out for players. They even go position by position after discussing several key takeaways:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhAFg2wXIDI

[patrickgpe]

I love Olave and London, but I think the combine elevated them to the point that they won't be around at 28.

[Oxy]

Gutekunst/Packers have almost always "reached" for guys...and then been proven to be pretty dang good drafters (other than the BIG ONE-Love). Good luck to all you prognosticators. I'll just watch the games

[Jenkins5]

Saw it mentioned about Leo's strength. As a freshman at Wisconsin their was videos of him repping 225 over 40 times. I was hoping he'd bench at combine, maybe break some records!

[Jenkins5]

Gutekunst/Packers have almost always "reached" for guys...and then been proven to be pretty dang good drafters (other than the BIG ONE-Love). Good luck to all you prognosticators. I'll just watch the games

 

Yeah you can never put much value in anyone talking about teams reaching. National Scout Media and hobbyist have their rankings, film studies, stats to make rankings but they are working with a fraction of the amount of data as these NFL scouting departments. A teams board is much different than those websites we have access to. I don't think most even realize how little information most those site have compared to pro teams. From the meetings with players, their coaches, their medicals, schematic value. Learning key traits like Football IQ, motivations/passions, character/leadership, and their dedication to the craft which are all things scouting service do not have very much access to since they are not meeting these kids or doing all their background digging. Those qualities are are just as important to future success than production, athletic ability, and film study.

 

Perfect example, almost every year after the draft I think, crap, the Vikings had a great draft! They drafted all these guys I liked and were high on draft service rankings. Every year, Vikings underachieve.

 

I never complain about Packers reaching on a player. I trust that they know more than these scouting services and more times than not, they prove so.

[patrickgpe]

 

I never complain about Packers reaching on a player. I trust that they know more than these scouting services and more times than not, they prove so.

 

I said this before, but anyone one of us could get a A or B draft by simply drafting based on the Expects rankings. Teams that get lower grades, only get them because the GM and the "expect" disagree on a players value. The only difference is that GM's get fired for messing up their draft and the experts suffer no consequences.

 

Draft season is fun. Its fun to read mock drafts and use the sites now that let you have your own mock draft, but at the end of the day, we are only going with a small fraction of the intelligence and scouting that the teams have.