Packers 2022 NFL Draft Discussion

[BillScottCanRake]

42 minutes ago, wallus said:

Give me two out of Olave, Hill, Pickens or Karlaftis in the first 2 picks and I will be happy. 

This is totally off topic, but every time I see Karlaftis' name in this thread, for just a split second I wonder why we are talking about Austin Kafentzis.  If Green Bay ends up drafting Karlaftis I am not sure my brain will be able to take it.

[Joseph Zarr]

Because it's always nice to get those rare Green Bay Packer specific draft rumors with substance:

Link

Packers Nuggets:

Quote

Zion Johnson a lock to go in the first round

One projected center who won’t make it out of the first round is Zion Johnson. The Boston College product is another who made a swift move up draft boards over the past eight months. After a terrific senior season, Johnson was another who had a great week of Senior Bowl practice.

Positional versatility is an added attraction to Johnson’s game. He played well at left tackle and guard for Boston College and showed a lot of ability at center during the Senior Bowl. I’m told the Green Bay Packers (with one of their two first-round picks), the Dallas Cowboys, and the Tampa Bay Bucs are the teams to watch as the first round closes out. The feeling is the team that selects Johnson will use him at guard early in his career with the hopes of developing him into a center.

 

The Packers looking to add a wide receiver

Will this be the year the Green Bay Packers finally draft a wide receiver? I’m told yes — if a highly rated player at the position falls into their laps with one of their picks in the first round. Otherwise, sources say they expect the Packers to trade out of Round 1 and look for a receiver later in the draft.

How deep is it at the receiver position? Right now, the expectation is that 19-22 wideouts will be selected in the draft by the time the fifth round ends.

As a card-carrying member of 'Team Trade Down' - especially in this year's draft where the general consensus has repeatedly been the depth 30-100 is phenomenal but it lacks top heavy hitters - I approve of these messages. Things rounding out nicely in rumorville. 

[Underachiever]

I'm busy on Thursday. Could someone help me out and fill this in after the round is over? Thanks in advance.

I can't believe the Packers drafted ________ when ________ was available. And they traded up/down to do it? Gutekunst must be (pick one) stupid/high/trying to piss off Aaron Rodgers. 

[brewcrewdue80]

As mentioned before. These past 2 or 3 days the mocks are all over the place with decisions to not keep the same previous selections or just because Travon Walker goes 1st. I remember 1 respected guy(Peter Schrager) in these his 2nd mock contained only 7 of the same picks he made previously from 1st mock.  Thinking a lot of the older mocks will have better projection than newer sans trades as a reason to pick differently.  Carolina has the 6th selection and not another until like 200.  They need a QB but also need picks.

Quite a good amount of mocks must have been informed of 2002 being last GB WR selected in 1st rd and are sticking that as not selecting a WR anymore in first. 

My guess at the moment is gutey moves up in first rd to select a WR(wrong 1 clearly) to cop out with hadnt he made the move  to move up that wr was being selected. Ala Savage and Love. 

[reillymcshane]

I was reading that quite a few teams want to trade down in the draft. Everyone likes to acquire extra assets. It means nothing will happen until teams are actually on the clock - as no one wants to make a deal to move up unless the guy they want is still on the board. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

As bad as my prognostication skills have been lately I will save my prediction for a random obscure pick and say Zach Tom with their first fourth rounder.

I do have a feeling, though, that at least one of the Day 1 or 2 picks will violate one of the "the Packers will never draft him because ..." rules that have proliferated, be it age, height, RAS score, etc.

[LouisEly]

Made two changes to my mock.  I don't like to make last-minute changes - I like to see if I can identify guys before they come in for visits - but these are guys who I had on early lists but changed out.  Substituted Drake Jackson for Cameron Thomas as one of my picks at #59, and Kyron Johnson for Baylon Spector at #249.

I'm still going back and forth between Quay Walker and Channing Tindall as one of my options at #53.  I'm sticking with Walker, but have a feeling I'll regret leaving Tindall out. 

What's interesting is that some of the players who the Packers have had visits with (in-person or virtual) and haven't been on anyone's radar are guys who played opposite guys on my list every day in practice (Jamaree Salyer, Rasheed Walker, Jahmir Johnson, John FitzPatrick).

[reillymcshane]

15 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Made two changes to my mock.  I don't like to make last-minute changes - I like to see if I can identify guys before they come in for visits - but these are guys who I had on early lists but changed out.  Substituted Drake Jackson for Cameron Thomas as one of my picks at #59, and Kyron Johnson for Baylon Spector at #249.

I'm still going back and forth between Quay Walker and Channing Tindall as one of my options at #53.  I'm sticking with Walker, but have a feeling I'll regret leaving Tindall out. 

What's interesting is that some of the players who the Packers have had visits with (in-person or virtual) and haven't been on anyone's radar are guys who played opposite guys on my list every day in practice (Jamaree Salyer, Rasheed Walker, Jahmir Johnson, John FitzPatrick).

Walker has been getting a lot of buzz lately. Solid, three-down guy.

[reillymcshane]

I try and make predictions on the Packers picks, but with the extra selections, it just is so difficult because we can go so many directions.

And the draft just looks really unpredictable. Who will drop to us just isn't that easy to discern.

That makes it all pretty fun to watch unfold.

[areacodes]

What are some good mock drafts to look at? My buddy talked me into doing a Draft pool and I’m not against using some other experts to help me do it.

[LouisEly]

One other thing I noticed with their visits - only one TE was brought in for an in-person visit, and he clearly will be a UDFA.  Dulcich was brought in for a virtual visit and Ferguson a local visit, so this could be either one of the biggest smokescreens ever and they don't want anyone knowing they are looking at TE, they like the five TEs on their roster a lot more than some people on message boards do, or there's substance to the Darren Waller rumor.  Personally, I think it's the latter two much more than the first.

Here's the positional breakdown of the in-person visits.  It won't necessarily tell you who, but may give an idea of what positions they are focusing on:

Offensive linemen: 8 (the tea leaves seem to be reading multiple day 3 picks more than one day 1/2 pick)

Receivers: 7

Interior defensive linemen: 4

Cornerbacks: 4

Edge defenders: 2

Off-ball linebackers: 3

Safeties: 2 (I put Tariq Carpenter here)

Tight ends: 1

[reillymcshane]

2 hours ago, areacodes said:

What are some good mock drafts to look at? My buddy talked me into doing a Draft pool and I’m not against using some other experts to help me do it.

There are so many, but I'll suggest going to https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com

They have hundreds of mocks on there - everything from amateurs to the bigger sites. But what you can do is click on the 'Consensus Mock Drafts' and 'Consensus Big Board' links and get an average of all the mocks and player rankings. 

It's all kind of wonky, but it works as a general overview of things. 

Also, from the home page you can get links to the most recent mocks. But there's a lot of terrible ones - so be careful who you look at. I remember one mock a while back had the Packers drafting three CBs in the first two rounds. So that's an example of how stupid people can be. But those dumb mocks get muted when included with hundreds of others.

I'm sure people have their favorite analysts that they can share. I like a lot of the work by the staff at The Athletic - but that's paywall stuff. 

[patrickgpe]

2 hours ago, areacodes said:

What are some good mock drafts to look at? My buddy talked me into doing a Draft pool and I’m not against using some other experts to help me do it.

I respect Peter Schrager. I assume he will release an updated one before Thursday. Bob McGinn has nailed the packers pick often in the past (not as often any more). 

[CheezWizHed]

Packer Draft Predictions:

• Easy Ones
  • Drafts multiple WRs.
  • Draft a 4th/5th round OL
  • Trades up - Just too much draft capitol for Gute to sit tight.
  • Draft someone we didn't expect 
  • Draft a TE higher then people expect and draftniks give us a low draft grade.  Fans complain that we could've traded down 2.5 spots and drafted him there. 
  • 75% of draftees have a RAS > 8.00
  • Doesn't draft a WI player.  Fans are upset.
• Hard Ones
  • Doesn't take a first round WR
  • Drafts 3 WRs. Two in the top 4 rounds - The third is also a PR/KR.
  • Trades up from #22 and down from #28.
  • Drafts someone from Cinncinnati
  • Drafts a player recovering from an ACL and dropped as a result
  • Grabs a late round RB that is labeled as a steal.

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

One other thing I noticed with their visits - only one TE was brought in for an in-person visit, and he clearly will be a UDFA.  Dulcich was brought in for a virtual visit and Ferguson a local visit, so this could be either one of the biggest smokescreens ever and they don't want anyone knowing they are looking, they like the five TEs on their roster a lot more than some people on message boards, or there's substance to the Darren Waller rumor.  Personally, I think it's the latter two much more than the first.

Here's the positional breakdown of the in-person visits.  It won't necessarily tell you who, but may give an idea of what positions they are focusing on:

Offensive linemen: 8 (the tea leaves seem to be reading multiple day 3 picks more than one day 1/2 pick)

Receivers: 7

Interior defensive linemen: 4

Cornerbacks: 4

Edge defenders: 2

Off-ball linebackers: 3

Safeties: 2 (I put Tariq Carpenter here)

Tight ends: 1

I'm thinking part of that deals with the fact TE class has about as much a chance to see 1 selected by end of round 2 as it would more than.  Ferguson is like 5-7?  on top 10 ranks and he's a 5th rd to undrafted potential.

I looked again at draft pick trade values,, and adding 22 with 28 somehow climbs up to #7. Or even 6.  6 and Carolina is near lock for trading down. Garrett Wilson becomes the obvious move up for GB to select him ahead of any of the following picks likely selecting Wilson immediately after 6. Feels odd because in 2019 I thought with 12 and 30 we couldn't move up beyond 7 or 8.  The trade for Waller idea likely is a draft day trade depending if a trade up like that happens, or a player falls to say 17 who is on GBs top 10 draft board.

George Pickens is growing on me as draft crush. Won't lie but his stature and some movements remind me of watching Adams. Only Pickens is taller and more physical to impact run game blocking. There is abundant video on YouTube including all targeted plays he had in 2019&2020.  Derrick Stingley picked off a bad decision on one target but Pickens went on to 3 solid catches vs Stingley the  following 3 targets.  Fromm was QB his freshman in 19 and clearly better than the 2020 QB that affected Pickens production. He recovered most of 2021 from ACL injury. So that is why he's not placed among the top 5 in this class. Somewhere there's a comment from a coach about how much he wants to and willing to put in added practice. I visualizing Adams 2seasons from now.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

11 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

I'm thinking part of that deals with the fact TE class has about as much a chance to see 1 selected by end of round 2 as it would more than.  Ferguson is like 5-7?  on top 10 ranks and he's a 5th rd to undrafted potential.

I looked again at draft pick trade values,, and adding 22 with 28 somehow climbs up to #7. Or even 6.  6 and Carolina is near lock for trading down. Garrett Wilson becomes the obvious move up for GB to select him ahead of any of the following picks likely selecting Wilson immediately after 6. Feels odd because in 2019 I thought with 12 and 30 we couldn't move up beyond 7 or 8.  The trade for Waller idea likely is a draft day trade depending if a trade up like that happens, or a player falls to say 17 who is on GBs top 10 draft board.

George Pickens is growing on me as draft crush. Won't lie but his stature and some movements remind me of watching Adams. Only Pickens is taller and more physical to impact run game blocking. There is abundant video on YouTube including all targeted plays he had in 2019&2020.  Derrick Stingley picked off a bad decision on one target but Pickens went on to 3 solid catches vs Stingley the  following 3 targets.  Fromm was QB his freshman in 19 and clearly better than the 2020 QB that affected Pickens production. He recovered most of 2021 from ACL injury. So that is why he's not placed among the top 5 in this class. Somewhere there's a comment from a coach about how much he wants to and willing to put in added practice. I visualizing Adams 2seasons from now.

I predict that the Packers will come out of the second day of the draft with two of a group of WRs including Pickens, Alec Pierce, Christian Watson and Treyvon Burks. All 4 seem 100% like Packer types, i.e. they are big, fast, rugged receivers who can block down the field. Those hoping for Olave or Skyy Moore don't realize they are not blockers whatsoever, and make MVS look thick size-wise. I don't see the fit there.

Honestly, part of me kind of hopes they don't take a WR in Round 1. That is a very Vikings-esque move, and a reason why the Vikings have hovered around mediocrity for years. A few years ago they dealt Diggs, and used the pick they got back on Jefferson, when it can be argued that that team had much bigger needs than attempting to draft a 1-for-1 replacement for their #2 WR. They've neglected both the offensive and defensive lines for years, and it shows. But they have plenty of shiny, pretty weapons! 

No ... the NFL draft's 1st round is for targeting athletic freaks. Justin Jefferson is a very good ... ok great WR. But what has having him on the team brought the Vikings? 

[CheezWizHed]

Sorry, but using JJ and the vikings as a "bad example" of drafting is a pretty big miss.  Drafting a pro bowler is always the right move.  Always! The viking OL problems are not because they drafted JJ in the first round. 

I don't think Olave has to be the massive blocker we think he should be. Frankly,  if he is anywhere near the WR JJ had become, you deal with good effort blocking or move him around.  The passing game is always more important than the running game. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

16 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Sorry, but using JJ and the vikings as a "bad example" of drafting is a pretty big miss.  Drafting a pro bowler is always the right move.  Always! The viking OL problems are not because they drafted JJ in the first round. 

I don't think Olave has to be the massive blocker we think he should be. Frankly,  if he is anywhere near the WR JJ had become, you deal with good effort blocking or move him around.  The passing game is always more important than the running game. 

Simply because a player works out doesn't mean it wasn't a questionable pick at the time. I'm simply saying the Vikings, who at the time considered themselves contenders, could have used that pick to fill a bigger hole on their roster than #2 WR. I argue that they have sputtered around mediocrity since then because they have failed to address the glaring needs, instead choosing the glitzy skill positions with their high picks. 

One of Olave's biggest knocks is his lack of blocking effort. I'm not saying that it is impossible that the Packers draft him, but that I'd just be extremely surprised if they do. Granted Gute doesn't have a super long track record as a drafter, but every perimeter WR he has targeted since taking over, from FA acquisitions to rookie free agents, has been the tall, strong, physical type. I think we're going to see a lot more of Lafleur's offense this year as well, which will be big on heavy sets and using the run to set up the pass. Not to the level we see in Tennessee or San Fran (Rodgers is still around after all) but more than in the past,  

[PeaveyFury]

Burks, Pickens, and Pierce seem to be the WRs I continue to gravitate towards for the Packers, in that order. Second tier is Olave, London, Watson, and Dotson for me, in that order I think. Dotson is increasingly mocked to GB, but he really seems like a counter to their typical WR type.

I don't have Tolbert listed, but I would think that if they don't get 2 WR in the 1st/2nd, he'd be a strong possibility at 92.

[CheezWizHed]

51 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Simply because a player works out doesn't mean it wasn't a questionable pick at the time. I'm simply saying the Vikings, who at the time considered themselves contenders, could have used that pick to fill a bigger hole on their roster than #2 WR. I argue that they have sputtered around mediocrity since then because they have failed to address the glaring needs, instead choosing the glitzy skill positions with their high picks. 

One of Olave's biggest knocks is his lack of blocking effort. I'm not saying that it is impossible that the Packers draft him, but that I'd just be extremely surprised if they do. Granted Gute doesn't have a super long track record as a drafter, but every perimeter WR he has targeted since taking over, from FA acquisitions to rookie free agents, has been the tall, strong, physical type. I think we're going to see a lot more of Lafleur's offense this year as well, which will be big on heavy sets and using the run to set up the pass. Not to the level we see in Tennessee or San Fran (Rodgers is still around after all) but more than in the past,  

Historically, need based drafting leads to reaches and overdrafts and is a terrible approach.  The packers have shown they can build a solid OL with 2nd &4th round picks and UDFAs. The vikings issues come from just drafting poorly. Yet,  you want to knock the one brilliant pick they made.  They clearly took the BPA with JJ.. You also are missing that the vikings really only had Theilen at WR and a bunch of nobodies.  And Adam has regressed also.  So it really was a need for them plus the BPA. It was the right move, hands down.

Olave is actually praised for his blocking effort...just not the results.  If Olave is anything close to JJ, he is the right pick.  I'm sure our coaches can deal with one WR not blocking well if he is a pro bowl caliber.

[CheezWizHed]

16 minutes ago, PeaveyFury said:

Burks, Pickens, and Pierce seem to be the WRs I continue to gravitate towards for the Packers, in that order. Second tier is Olave, London, and Dotson for me, in that order I think. Dotson is increasingly mocked to GB, but he really seems like a counter to their typical WR type.

I don't have Tolbert listed, but I would think that if they don't get 2 WR in the 1st/2nd, he'd be a strong possibility at 92.

Obviously,  I'm hoping for Olave, but I'm ok if we pass.  I'm not a Burks fan,  though if we pick him I'd be fine, too. For both, I trust the GM evaluating how they fit with our team. 

I'm also good with a Pickens/Pierce combo.  Getting them as a 2nd/3rd combo would be awesome

Really not impressed with Dotson. I predict he falls much farther than expected.  

If London falls to us,  great.  I just hope we don't trade up for him.  

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

15 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Historically, need based drafting leads to reaches and overdrafts and is a terrible approach.  The packers have shown they can build a solid OL with 2nd &4th round picks and UDFAs. The vikings issues come from just drafting poorly. Yet,  you want to knock the one brilliant pick they made.  They clearly took the BPA with JJ.. You also are missing that the vikings really only had Theilen at WR and a bunch of nobodies.  And Adam has regressed also.  So it really was a need for them plus the BPA. It was the right move, hands down.

Olave is actually praised for his blocking effort...just not the results.  If Olave is anything close to JJ, he is the right pick.  I'm sure our coaches can deal with one WR not blocking well if he is a pro bowl caliber.

We're obviously going to have to agree to disagree. Theilen has regressed numbers-wise, but at the time they dealt Diggs, he was pretty dang great still. And it can certainly be argued that Mike Zimmer's conservative old-school run-heavy approach straight out of the 1980s simply cannot support having two star #1-type WRs. We'll see what happens this year under a coach that should be willing to open things up more.

We'll also see concerning Olave. While there are some similarities to Jefferson, JJ is bigger all around, and was seen as a better all around receiving prospect (plus I wanted JJ to be a Packer in the worst way, and was peeved with the Vikings took him). I guess I'm just not a fan of smaller, skinny WRs. Packers haven't had one with that body type who had any success since probably Robert Brooks or Driver I suppose.

[reillymcshane]

Regarding Pickens, the Athletic did a round table with some NFL scouts and coaches, and some were down on the guy. They said he needed to grow up and was always getting in his own way - that sort of thing. One coach said his interview was terrible. And another said they basically took him off their board. Add in the fact he is coming off an ACL injury and it raises some red flags.

And while Pickens is very competitive, he'll let himself get distracted from the game. He is a good blocker - but often doesn't try. He's also had some on-field incidents (fights) in the past.

No one questions his talent. He could be a top 10 pick based just on talent. But they say any team is going to have to be willing to work with the guy to bring out that potential. 

[PeaveyFury]

Though I've seen those reports too, reilly, I'm also super skeptical of 'unnamed sources' leaking info negatively on a player. There's a large part of me that thinks that someone is trying to create downward momentum on a guy, probably so their team has an increased chance to draft him.

[reillymcshane]

I saw one mock draft with the Packers grabbing LB Devin Lloyd and DL Devonte Wyatt with our top picks. While I want a receiver or two, that would be a sweet pair to add to the defense.