Packers 2022 NFL Draft Discussion

[Joseph Zarr]

Also of note, and prompted in the comments, is Alex Wright (UAB) also with a 25% win rate. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I know he was a free agent signing, but I just read an interesting note on Sammy Watkins that indicated that he was PFF's top-graded blocker from the WR position the last three years. Obviously Gute and Lafleur have a type at WR ... long arms, strong, huge catch radius. Watkins is probably on the small end of what they typically target at 6'1" and 210-215 lbs. But he is a hell of a downfield blocker.

That makes me think that the Packers aren't going to consider players like Olave and Dotson, who are not graded well in that area. WRs who do have strong run blocking grades include George Pickens, Treylon Burks, Jalen Nailor, John Metchie, and Alec Pierce.

If Burks is there at 22, I think he'll be a Packer. If he isn't, I think they take Pickens at either 22 or 28. Pierce is a very strong 2nd round possibility.

[CheeseheadInQC]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I know he was a free agent signing, but I just read an interesting note on Sammy Watkins that indicated that he was PFF's top-graded blocker from the WR position the last three years. Obviously Gute and Lafleur have a type at WR ... long arms, strong, huge catch radius. Watkins is probably on the small end of what they typically target at 6'1" and 210-215 lbs. But he is a hell of a downfield blocker.

That makes me think that the Packers aren't going to consider players like Olave and Dotson, who are not graded well in that area. WRs who do have strong run blocking grades include George Pickens, Treylon Burks, Jalen Nailor, John Metchie, and Alec Pierce.

If Burks is there at 22, I think he'll be a Packer. If he isn't, I think they take Pickens at either 22 or 28. Pierce is a very strong 2nd round possibility.

You might be right about LaFleur’s offense predicating that type of wide receiver, but I think it is too early to say that is Gute’s preferred type when he has drafted just three outside receivers, all on day 3. You wouldn’t say it about Thompson, but he took a lot of raw height-weight-speed receivers on day 3 as well. He just took mostly route running/body control guys in the first three rounds. That could be Gute’s preference, too. He just hasn’t drafted an outside receiver that early.

[Joseph Zarr]

6 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I know he was a free agent signing, but I just read an interesting note on Sammy Watkins that indicated that he was PFF's top-graded blocker from the WR position the last three years. Obviously Gute and Lafleur have a type at WR ... long arms, strong, huge catch radius. Watkins is probably on the small end of what they typically target at 6'1" and 210-215 lbs. But he is a hell of a downfield blocker.

That makes me think that the Packers aren't going to consider players like Olave and Dotson, who are not graded well in that area. WRs who do have strong run blocking grades include George Pickens, Treylon Burks, Jalen Nailor, John Metchie, and Alec Pierce.

If Burks is there at 22, I think he'll be a Packer. If he isn't, I think they take Pickens at either 22 or 28. Pierce is a very strong 2nd round possibility.

I am going to go the other way on this: I don't believe the Packers select a WR in Rd 1.

What I do 'believe' (quotes intentional as I realize I don't know a darn thing) is they will:  go defense with both, maybe O-Line, maybe trade up (targeting Karlaftis), maybe use 1 of their 1st round picks while trading back with the other.

I am of the opinion they will wait on WR's until their Day 2 picks and later - assuming they grab more than one to throw into the Mix.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, Julio Muchacho said:

I am going to go the other way on this: I don't believe the Packers select a WR in Rd 1.

What I do 'believe' (quotes intentional as I realize I don't know a darn thing) is they will:  go defense with both, maybe O-Line, maybe trade up (targeting Karlaftis), maybe use 1 of their 1st round picks while trading back with the other.

I am of the opinion they will wait on WR's until their Day 2 picks and later - assuming they grab more than one to throw into the Mix.

I so hope this happens, simply to watch the majority of Packers Twitter (i.e. morons) lose their collective minds. 

[reillymcshane]

Okay, fun hypothetical question.

Giants pick at #7. Based on the Trade Value Chart* that's worth 1500 points.

If the Giants called and offered the Packers that pick for our two first rounders - #22 (780 pts) and #28 (660 pts), plus a 4th rounder (#132 - 40 points) - do you take it. The Packers package total is valued at 1480 points.

And if you do take it - what player (or players) are you targeting? 

Assume the trade wouldn't happen until the Giants are on the clock - so you only have to make the trade if your player is there.

Note, the Packers have two 4th round picks, so we would still have one in that round. 

*Trade value chart: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

[Joseph Zarr]

18 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

Okay, fun hypothetical question.

Giants pick at #7. Based on the Trade Value Chart* that's worth 1500 points.

If the Giants called and offered the Packers that pick for our two first rounders - #22 (780 pts) and #28 (660 pts), plus a 4th rounder (#132 - 40 points) - do you take it. The Packers package total is valued at 1480 points.

And if you do take it - what player (or players) are you targeting? 

Assume the trade wouldn't happen until the Giants are on the clock - so you only have to make the trade if your player is there.

Note, the Packers have two 4th round picks, so we would still have one in that round. 

*Trade value chart: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

That's a fun one.

I think, if that was offered, I'd think about it if either or both of the Georgia DL were there. That feels like a lot of Capital to give up, tho, in a draft that is seen as deeper than it is top heavy.

[bjkrautk]

48 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

Okay, fun hypothetical question.

Giants pick at #7. Based on the Trade Value Chart* that's worth 1500 points.

If the Giants called and offered the Packers that pick for our two first rounders - #22 (780 pts) and #28 (660 pts), plus a 4th rounder (#132 - 40 points) - do you take it. The Packers package total is valued at 1480 points.

And if you do take it - what player (or players) are you targeting? 

Assume the trade wouldn't happen until the Giants are on the clock - so you only have to make the trade if your player is there.

Note, the Packers have two 4th round picks, so we would still have one in that round. 

*Trade value chart: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

Personally, that's a no for me, since I don't think the Packers need to move up that far to get one of the better WR prospects in the draft.  Olave is the guy I see as the safest, "take the cover off the defense" WR threat; someone with MVS speed, but enough versatility in the other routes to be an every-down player.  I don't think you need to get into the Top 10 to get him; my gut says you just need to get past New Orleans at 16 to get him (if you need to move at all...I think you do, but there are Mock-writers who keep him on the board until 22).  Looking at the value chart, 22 & 53 would be enough compensation to move up to 13 (HOU) or 14 (BAL).

 

...and yes, that's pretty much trading Adams for Olave straight-up...but it's what we're left with.

 

As things stand, if the Packers do nothing, they would have the option of a receiver like Burks or Dotson in the 20s, plus the ability to double-dip at WR with a 2nd round pick (plus the ability to address other needs at 28).  The question is whether they're better off with 2 good potential receivers or one really good prospect.  I wouldn't be entirely surprised if they moved up from 22, and then moved down from 28 to restock draft picks.

[SeaBass]

I like Olave but I'd rather the Packers stand pat if they're going to take a WR. I'm with RRB I feel like the Packers would take Burks over Olave. I'm also fine just waiting, Pickens is good, there are just so many decent WRs that I'd rather not spend a draft pick to move up.

One exception but it's a scenario I don't think will happen. If the Packers are in a position to get both Burks and Olave I think it would be worth trading their 28th plus whatever other pick it would take to move up to 21 or 23 so they can make back to back picks. But I just don't think Gute is going to take 2 WR in the first round. Like others have said it wouldn't shock me if they waited until day 2 to pick a WR.

[patrickgpe]

i agree with the sentiment. I do not think they need to waste a 1st to move up. I think teams will reach on some QB's and players will fall to GB. If they want to trade a midround pick to move up a spot or 2 to make sure that they get their guy, I'm OK with that though. 

[brewcrewdue80]

Kinda ran in to what may be keeping Pickens from a 1st rd grade.  Not only the ACL recovery and the game experience he lost but he has some questions about mental status.  1 thing came up is not giving 100pct effort on plays. He also had a game where while on the sidelines he used the water bottle he had in his hands and squirted a Ten Volunteer(QB) with it when that player ran out of bounds on his sideline. Cost a 15yd penalty which resulted in a Td.  I think a 3rd was a scuffle or shoving with an opponent.  So just some immature things that teams just won't waste a 1st rd on.  Oh and he has something like 8 1/2-3/4 inch hands that creates some drop concerns.

I've seen some suggestions that GBs mold for WR in drafts had height and or weight tendacies that would check some guys off [I think Olave weight? being 1)  and leaving that trio of Pickens, Watson, and Pierce fitting this draft mold.

That brings that idea of mine to trade with Seattle for 40/41 using 1 of the 1sts and 2nds to do so. Where the 2nd rd grades of the 3 and picking 2 would settle more to that projection vs a reach.

Burks seems best to go from day 1.

I'd consider Pierce 2nd.

Pickens 3rd. 

Watson while the freak, has the largest jump to make in gamespeed.

If putting an insert player comp of Packer past

Bigger heavier Cobb-Nelson-Adams-MVS.

 

[PeaveyFury]

My one and only Packer draft prediction, which is quite likely to be wrong:

The Packers are taking Travis Jones, and I think it’ll be at 28.

If that does happen, my much more likely to be right opinion is that the pick will be destroyed by the mocker universe and they’ll quickly disappear when it proves an excellent pick.

[LouisEly]

Not a bad prediction at all. I gave him serious consideration, but went with Leal later for three reasons: first, based on history (taking Gary at #12 when they had just signed both Smiths) the Packers seem to highly value pass rush from the edge and I think they go with that at #28 and Jones won't be there at #53; second, Barry likes to generate pressure from his front four so he can drop seven in coverage so I went with a more accomplished pass rusher; third, Gutey seems to gravitate towards players from the SEC.

[reillymcshane]

4 hours ago, PeaveyFury said:

My one and only Packer draft prediction, which is quite likely to be wrong:

The Packers are taking Travis Jones, and I think it’ll be at 28.

If that does happen, my much more likely to be right opinion is that the pick will be destroyed by the mocker universe and they’ll quickly disappear when it proves an excellent pick.

If the Packers want Jones, they likely need to grab him at #28. I don't think he lasts until #53. 

I don't see it as a controversial pick. I generally have seen him in the 30-45ish area - so taking him at the upper part isn't a shocker. I've seen him mocked to the Packers on multiple occasions. 

Definitely would fill a team need. 

[PeaveyFury]

11 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

If the Packers want Jones, they likely need to grab him at #28. I don't think he lasts until #53. 

I don't see it as a controversial pick. I generally have seen him in the 30-45ish area - so taking him at the upper part isn't a shocker. I've seen him mocked to the Packers on multiple occasions. 

Definitely would fill a team need. 

That’s hits on a good point- though they have two seconds, 25 picks come off the board between 28 and 53, and a lot of nice, useful talent will come off the board as a result. Yes, they could package both seconds and move up, but my guess is they’d prefer 4 players than 3. Might lead to a guy we don’t expect at 28 as a result.

[patrickgpe]

My one Packer prediction is that they will take Raimann in the 1st. Seems to be the exact type of tackle the Packers like

[bjkrautk]

35 minutes ago, patrickgpe said:

My one Packer prediction is that they will take Raimann in the 1st. Seems to be the exact type of tackle the Packers like

Colorado (Bakh)

Oregon (Hanson)

Mississippi State (Jenkins)

Ohio State (Myers)

Mississippi (Newman)

Virginia Tech (Nijman - UFA)

Michigan (Runyan)

Wisconsin (Van Lanen)

 

Just looking back year-by-year on ESPN, the last time the Packers drafted an O-Lineman from outside of the power conferences was Kofi Amichia in the 6th round...way back in 2017.  He and J.C. Tretter (Cornell) in 2013 are the only non-BCS OL guys the Packers have drafted in the past decade.  At least part of the profile has to be acknowledging where the guy played, and the Packers don't often roll the dice on guys facing lesser competition.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Given what is going on this offseason with stud WRs who were drafted after the 1st round demanding market-setting contracts or wanting to be traded headed into their 4th NFL season, if the Packers hold onto that #28 pick I can see them going WR or somewhat of a talented but raw player that would benefit the team greatly to have that 5th year option on their rookie deal.

 

Because of this, it also wouldn't surprise me to see the Packers package one of their 2nd rounders with a player or future draft capital to move into round 1 for a 3rd bite at the 1st round apple.  That 5th year option gives the late 1st round picks a ton more value than the top half of round 2 simply for contract/team control certainty.  

[PeaveyFury]

2 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Given what is going on this offseason with stud WRs who were drafted after the 1st round demanding market-setting contracts or wanting to be traded headed into their 4th NFL season, if the Packers hold onto that #28 pick I can see them going WR or somewhat of a talented but raw player that would benefit the team greatly to have that 5th year option on their rookie deal.

 

Because of this, it also wouldn't surprise me to see the Packers package one of their 2nd rounders with a player or future draft capital to move into round 1 for a 3rd bite at the 1st round apple.  That 5th year option gives the late 1st round picks a ton more value than the top half of round 2 simply for contract/team control certainty.  

Yes, I can certainly see them following that logic as well. I’m just not sure if they’ll value the extra pick in a draft deep with second round graded talent vs. getting that 5th year with a 3rd first rounder.

[patrickgpe]

3 hours ago, bjkrautk said:

Colorado (Bakh)

Oregon (Hanson)

Mississippi State (Jenkins)

Ohio State (Myers)

Mississippi (Newman)

Virginia Tech (Nijman - UFA)

Michigan (Runyan)

Wisconsin (Van Lanen)

 

Just looking back year-by-year on ESPN, the last time the Packers drafted an O-Lineman from outside of the power conferences was Kofi Amichia in the 6th round...way back in 2017.  He and J.C. Tretter (Cornell) in 2013 are the only non-BCS OL guys the Packers have drafted in the past decade.  At least part of the profile has to be acknowledging where the guy played, and the Packers don't often roll the dice on guys facing lesser competition.

Can't argue with you there. I was more referring to his athletic ability. 

[Joseph Zarr]

Emory Hunt is pretty incredible. If you've ever followed his stuff, he has an incredible depth of small school knowledge as he calls games and also scouts the lesser Bowl games. He also put out an insanely in-depth 1,000 page (!!) draft guide for 2022.

Several really good points in this 17 minute video. Included are 4-6 extremely obscure (at least, to me) HBCU and Division II prospects Packers fans might be interested. 

The draft guide link, for some silly reason, isn't listed in the video description. BUT, here it is: Over 800 Prospect Profiles (Sheeeeesh)

The website itself also screams: I watch tape and study prospects every day. LOL. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

14 hours ago, bjkrautk said:

Colorado (Bakh)

Oregon (Hanson)

Mississippi State (Jenkins)

Ohio State (Myers)

Mississippi (Newman)

Virginia Tech (Nijman - UFA)

Michigan (Runyan)

Wisconsin (Van Lanen)

 

Just looking back year-by-year on ESPN, the last time the Packers drafted an O-Lineman from outside of the power conferences was Kofi Amichia in the 6th round...way back in 2017.  He and J.C. Tretter (Cornell) in 2013 are the only non-BCS OL guys the Packers have drafted in the past decade.  At least part of the profile has to be acknowledging where the guy played, and the Packers don't often roll the dice on guys facing lesser competition.

The interesting thing about that is they took at least one every year from the beginning of Thompson's tenure until 2011, including Colledge, Sitton and Lang.

[reillymcshane]

On 4/22/2022 at 7:26 AM, PeaveyFury said:

That’s hits on a good point- though they have two seconds, 25 picks come off the board between 28 and 53, and a lot of nice, useful talent will come off the board as a result. Yes, they could package both seconds and move up, but my guess is they’d prefer 4 players than 3. Might lead to a guy we don’t expect at 28 as a result.

Latest mock at the Athletic had them grabbing Jones at #28 (along with Burks at #22).

[Sixtolezcano]

I’ve read several reports that Burks’s football IQ level is to put it nicely well below average. Several suggested that it might take him several seasons before he can get a handle on MLF’s receiver playbook and one analyst likened him having the intelligence of a bag-o-rocks.  Fair warning.

[wallus]

Give me two out of Olave, Hill, Pickens or Karlaftis in the first 2 picks and I will be happy.