Packers 2022 NFL Draft Discussion

[NBBrewFan]

2 hours ago, PeaveyFury said:

Problem is BCD80, those are only hypothetical trades that exist in your own head and assigning values to players based on what some guy named Walter (or any equivalent) posts on what is basically a fan site in the end. Sooner or later, the fan base will realize that Gute is really good at what he does, assigns values to players that are based on their great scouting department, and generally gets proven right in the end. He's done more than enough to earn the benefit of the doubt from all but the most staunch fans that still can't admit they were horribly wrong on the Gary pick and cling to grades assigned to draft picks by fan sites, who never actually go back and re-grade the drafts a few years later to see what picks were ACTUALLY As and which were Ds and Fs.

In the end, Gute has more information, better scouting, and has largely proven smarter than us fans. Sooner or later we'll have to acknowledge that we're just completing pretend mock drafts and obtaining good 'grades', while he's actually building a good football team, as he has every year.

 

As much as it would be really cool to be a fly on the wall in the draft room and through the process of evaluating the talent I don't think we'll ever know what is happening behind the scenes.  I do think your point about re-grading drafts is important because many of the "experts" don't get it correct at any level that their real-time grades mean anything.  Even the PFF mock simulator bases their "grade" on when you pick a player in relation to their own board.  I have run that thing so many times I have to wait until my wife goes to bed so I don't get that look (why are you wasting your time on that!).  If you don't pick Jelani Woods with a pick before #120 he is gone 99% of the time by the 132nd pick.  If you pick him at #110 or #120 (through a trade) then you get a grade form C to F. Why? because his Average draft position is 132 and you picked him at #110?  That's just stupid because the TE pickings are pretty slim after that.  The point I'm slowly getting to  is that ranking boards mean absolutely nothing because each team has their own and while teams claim to go for BPA, there's no point in drafting a OT with #132 if you pick someone like Penning or Raimann earlier and have other positional needs.  The only thing I know for sure is that this is just a fun time of the year and the draft will be exciting even with the overdose of Goodell. 

[NBBrewFan]

2 hours ago, PeaveyFury said:

Anyway, back to the current draft discussion:

I do like what that NFL.com mock did in keeping 22 in our pocket while packaging picks to move up from 28. Seems like a nice way to guarantee essentially back-to-back picks if you move up to 21. Allows for either a double-dip at WR without any other WR-needy team jumping in, or to grab a value guy and a WR.

I think I've reordered my WR draft rankings 100 times as I've waded through all the data and I think my concerns about Olave have been erased.  In fact, I read through the PFF draft guide today and one really cool dataset stood out for him that leads me to believe if they are targeting him then I would be OK moving up to make sure they get him.  It is:

I think that's the most impressive data for success at mid to deep balls I saw in the PFF wide receivers writeup.  Even Wilson and Williams don't have as impressive results for deep balls.  Another player with a similar Routes Ran chart is Jalen Tolbert out of Southern Alabama who has been my favorite for a second WR if they go for 2, but likely would need to be taken in the second or they would need to move into the early 3rd round to have a chance getting him.

And if they did get Olave/Karlaftis at 21/22 then an OT/DT and second WR in Round 2 that would be a very nice draft.

[brewcrewdue80]

4 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

I think I've reordered my WR draft rankings 100 times as I've waded through all the data and I think my concerns about Olave have been erased.  In fact, I read through the PFF draft guide today and one really cool dataset stood out for him that leads me to believe if they are targeting him then I would be OK moving up to make sure they get him.  It is:

I think that's the most impressive data for success at mid to deep balls I saw in the PFF wide receivers writeup.  Even Wilson and Williams don't have as impressive results for deep balls.  Another player with a similar Routes Ran chart is Jalen Tolbert out of Southern Alabama who has been my favorite for a second WR if they go for 2, but likely would need to be taken in the second or they would need to move into the early 3rd round to have a chance getting him.

And if they did get Olave/Karlaftis at 21/22 then an OT/DT and second WR in Round 2 that would be a very nice draft.

 Just remember he played with a WR 1 who should get drafted before Olave as to why you didn't see another WR close to that chart. Every team is playing WR1 worse than his teammate and he's WR2.

 

As to my previous post, I would so love to see the teams BPA big board. How they rate their guys or tier them. What their "we need to trade down ifs" or we need to trade up if" are.  Do they use a need to draft by round from this tier?

 

Or is it like many of fantasy drafters everywhere where Gutey falls in love with 1-2, 2-3, say 3-5guys he expects to draft with that rd's pick and when the others have been selected he does whatever possible to get that last player?  This draft will tell where he's at. Because staring at 4 picks in first two rounds, the needs the team has, and draft mock boards, he should be able to make 4 checkmarks finding the needs the team most needs.

[Joseph Zarr]

Great stuff here, gents. Thanks for sharing!

[PeaveyFury]

14 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

 Because staring at 4 picks in first two rounds, the needs the team has, and draft mock boards, he should be able to make 4 checkmarks finding the needs the team most needs.

I think this mentality is what we think the draft is, and it truly is because of the 'fantasy draft' mentality- you've got specific spots to fill, so you must fill them, etc.

In reality, good NFL GMs draft for some combination of filling holes, building depth, planning for future departures, and getting value from their board. That's why, even if they take a guy that doesn't "fill a hole", it doesn't automatically mean it's a bad pick like a lot of the mock draft fan sites will immediately claim thereafter.

[LouisEly]

Every year I say I'm not going to do this again, but who am I kidding - it's tradition.  Not sure how this will look in the new format (probably painful), but here goes.  Mods, feel free to break off into a separate thread for predictions.

Heading into the draft, I think the biggest questions that will affect who the Packers draft and when are at offensive tackle. Do they think Bakh will be ready to go? What is the prognosis of Jenkins returning, and will he be able to backup at OT when he returns or will the knee not be ready for that? Do the Packers believe that Newman and Van Lanen, both of whom are listed as “T/G” on the Packers.com roster, can actually play RT?  Do they see Nijman long-term and will they be able to sign him long-term? With only nine OL on the roster – two of whom are exclusively centers – the Packers will need to address depth with multiple picks; the question is which rounds and which positions. If Bakh is healthy they don’t need starters – they’re set with Bakh, Runyan, Myers, Newman, and Nijman while waiting for Jenkins to return. But they will need backups capable of playing multiple positions.

Between less players participating in testing at the combine and less info available about testing at pro days, guessing the later round picks and UDFAs is getting more difficult. But here goes.

1^st round (#22): Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State – the Packers need at WR is well-documented, and so is Aaron Rodgers lack of trust in rookies. He needs an excellent route runner who knows where he is supposed to be and Olave is the best in the draft class at that. As smooth as they get, and has the athleticism to get separation at all three levels. Needs to improve his strength, but they can move him around in the formation. Ohio State expects their WRs to be good run blockers too, and Gutes personally attended OSU’s pro day. (replaces Davante Adams)

If he’s still available: Drake London, WR, USC – two-sport athlete good enough to play on the USC basketball team, he has the WR size that the Packers covet. Elite catch radius and also at using strength and leverage to create separation. Basketball background makes body positioning and high-pointing the ball natural. In 7.5 games last year had 88 catches for over 1,000 yards when the opponents knew he was getting the ball and also broke 22 tackles. He may not “take the top off” the defense, but this draft has plenty of guys who can do that who they can get later.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia – the Packers covet elite athleticism, and Wyatt demonstrated that by running a 4.77-40 at the combine. Disruptive, great lateral movement, high effort at chasing down the play. Like other Georgia defenders his stats were deceivingly low because of so many playmakers in their front seven; PFF gave him a 90.1 grade and ranked him first in positively graded play rate against the run and 10th in pass-rush win rate. DT isn’t nearly as deep as WR is, so the Packers may go with athleticism at DT and address WR later.

 

1^st round (#28): Arnold Ebiketie, Edge, Penn State – the Packers value pass rush and Ebiketie is one of the best in this draft class as evidenced by his 90.5 PFF pass rushing grade and 52 pressures. Ebiketie brings urgency off of the snap and can quickly penetrate gaps, as evidenced by leading the Big Ten in TFLs. Athletic, explosive (38” vertical), excellent pass rusher who also has special teams experience; Badgers fans will remember he blocked the FG against them, one of two blocked field goals on the season. Gutes personally attended Penn State’s pro day. (replaces Za’Darius Smith)

If he’s still available: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas – Burks is a WR in a RB’s body, and it shows in his brand of play as he averaged almost 10 YAC. Burks has huge hands and great body control and leverage, allowing him to overcome average athleticism. He’s also great at tracking deep balls, which may come from having been an all-state centerfielder. Any questions about his ability can be answered by looking at the Alabama tape where he had 8 catches for 179 yards and 2 TDs despite everyone knowing he was getting the ball. Even if they go WR at #22, I could see them doubling up on Burks or taking Burks at #22 if Olave and London are gone.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan – former TE who moved to OT before the 2020 season, Raimann is just scratching the surface of what he can do. The instincts and technique aren’t quite there yet, but he has the natural quickness and footwork to set out to NFL edge speed and has the strength to anchor on the bull rush. The Packers have to replace two OTs, Bakh may not be all the way back yet, and Nijman will be a RFA after the season and if he plays as well as he did last year they may not be able to afford him long-term. PFF grade of 94.6 last year.

 

2^nd round (#53): George Pickens, WR, Georgia – He’s a first round talent, but his injury history will push him down; normally a 4.47 40 at the combine is a great time but this year it was fairly average and perhaps speaks to not being 100% back from the ACL injury, and he didn’t run the agility drills. Needs to improve play strength, route-running, and show confidence in his knee to get separation and thus I don’t think he goes as high as some think, but I think the Packers go for the upside here and could use one of their 4^th round picks to move up to get him or trade down from #28 and grab him early in the 2nd. Lowest drop rate (2.7%) of any of the top WR prospects. (replaces MV-S)

If he’s still available: Boye Mafe, Edge, Minnesota – Mafe has explosive traits, but I don’t think he will go as high as some think because of a lack of instincts which usually translates into a lack of production. He won’t be required to start though, so the Packers can develop his explosive traits in a backup role like they did with Rashan Gary.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Quay Walker, ILB, Georgia – Walker didn’t test as well as some expected, but he is instinctive with quick recognition and response and plays disciplined, team-oriented football. Perhaps his best calling card is his size (6’4”, 240) which lends to covering TEs and playing either inside or outside.

 

2^nd round (#59): DeMarvin Leal, DT, Texas A&M – Leal didn’t quite meet the lofty expectations set for him this year and in his testing numbers, but was very productive with 8.5 sacks and 12.5 TFLs. A bit on the lean size, but he was an early entrant and is on the younger side. Best fit might be 3-4 DE, but he can be a designated pass rusher for a year while he develops.  Gutey also seems to like players from the SEC (replaces Kingsley Keke)

If he’s still available: Jalen Pitre, S/CB, Baylor – if you go back to Joe Barry’s introductory press conference, he talked about the importance of the nickel position and that’s what Pitre starred at in Baylor’s “Star” position. Doesn’t have the size to be the big nickel, but in the pros the nickel is much more of a DB than LB. Great agility, had one of the top 3-cone times at the combine, and is described as a “coach’s dream” with outstanding intangibles and football IQ.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Drake Jackson, Edge, USC - Jackson was a bit miscast in the trainwreck that was 2021 USC as they had him dropping off in coverage more than he should have been, dampening his pass rushing stats.  But he is a great pass rusher (pass rush grade of 87.7 last year) with excellent bend and put up great agility times at USC's pro day.  Can't find whether he actually ran the 40 at his personal pro day, but he just turned 21 and the Packers have shown affinity to younger players who may not be fully developed.

 

3^rd round (#92): Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State – the Packers need depth at CB, and bringing back Douglas allows them to take a higher-ceiling prospect they can develop and they don’t get any higher ceiling than McCollum. Elite size (6’2”, 200), athleticism (4.33 40), explosiveness (39.5” vertical, 132 broad jump) and agility – his 3-cone and short-shuttle times were tops of any player at any position at the combine. Has some technique flaws, but takes to coaching extremely well and has elite intangibles and leadership. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s gone by this point, but if he’s there I don’t think he makes it past the Packers here. (replaces Chandon Sullivan)

If he’s still available: Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State – Lucas answered any questions about his athleticism and agility at the combine, scoring top times in the agility drills and a sub-5.00 40. Lucas’ pass protection is ahead of his run blocking, but that’s OK for the Packers; in 477 pass block snaps last year he gave up zero sacks and one hit per PFF. Has great size and length, but plays a little upright, had issues with false start penalties, and needed TE help with speed rushers (the latter two may be related).

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Troy Anderson, ILB, Montana State – Anderson started his career at RB and QB (and was all-conference at QB in 2018), then moved to LB where he also was 1^st team all-conference. Anderson has the long speed (4.42 40) but doesn’t have the instincts at this point due to being a recent switch to LB. Could also be a jumbo RB or FB in short-yardage situations. Developmental guy with high upside if they believe in Barnes for the short-term.

 

4^th round (#132): Aaron Hansford, ILB, Texas A&M – converted WR who is athletically gifted and has smooth change of direction and sideline to sideline range. Didn’t become a starter until 2020 and is still learning the position and recognizing play design and blocking schemes. Rocked up w/8% body fat, he ran a 4.6 at their pro day. Not a finished product by any means, he still has upside, has flashed blitzing ability, and Gutey seems to like guys from the SEC. (replaces Oren Burks)

If he’s still available: Sam Williams, Edge, Ole Miss – another athletic freak who blew up the combine with his 4.46 speed, Williams was first team all-SEC this past season and was fifth in the nation with 12.5 sacks and 10^th in the nation with four forced fumbles. He’s getting knocked down for two things – a sexual battery charge in 2020 that was dropped, and for his run defense. There was a reason for the latter though – they often played him at the 4i-tech instead of OLB or 7-tech where he projects to as a pro.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Kellen Diesch, OT, Arizona State – the Packers need to replace two OTs and may use two picks on them even though they don’t need a starter right now. Diesch has outstanding athleticism and quickness, but doesn’t have the functional length (short-ish arms) and strength at this point. Good developmental prospect, and Gutes personally attended Arizona State’s pro day.

 

4^th round (#140): Zach Thomas, T/G, San Diego State – some have Thomas projected to guard, but I think he demonstrated more than enough at the combine and pro day to have a future at OT. Has the length (6’5”, 34” arms, 83” wingspan) and athleticism (4.96 40, 7.40 3-cone, 4.65 short-shuttle) that are more than adequate for the outside. His 1.67 split in the 40 is top-5 all-time for OTs, and PFF graded him out at 87.2 last season. Excellent pad level, and has room to add more muscle and improve his body composition. He can move inside if needed, but I think can stay outside and fits the Packers need for OL who can play multiple positions. (replaces Billy Turner)

If he’s still available: Jelani Woods, TE, Virginia – former QB who put up some impressive combine and pro day performances, Woods had good production but is still a bit raw with technique and the tape doesn’t quite match the athleticism. There is upside here, and IMO the Packers don’t need a TE, but he might be too good to pass up here.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Eyioma Uwazurike, DT, Iowa State – a mountain of a man (6’6”, 319) with length (35” arms, 86” wingspan), perhaps nobody took advantage of his extra year more than he did having accounted for 9 sacks and 12 TFLs this past season. Explosive as well, had the top vertical (33”) at the combine for DL and his 4.75 in the short shuttle is impressive for a man his size. Pad level gets away from him, but is the ideal 5-tech.

 

5^th round (#171): Tanner Conner, WR/H-Back, Idaho State – two-sport athlete who also competes in the hurdles on the track team, he’s perhaps the most athletic freak in the draft. Played WR but has the size of a LB (6’3”, 230) and ran a 4.37 at Washington's pro day with a 40” vertical. A bit raw on the route-running, but nobody his size runs like he does and he has an elite work ethic. Could easily add a few pounds and move to H-Back, but wherever he ends up playing he’ll be a matchup nightmare. Excels at special teams and as a senior captain played on as many special teams units as he could. Will be a special teams demon while he develops. (replaces ESB)

If he’s still available: JT Woods, S, Baylor – former track star with sprinter’s speed, he ran a blistering 4.36 40 at the combine and was productive as well with nine interceptions over the last two seasons. He’s versatile and played in all of Baylor’s safety positions, but had too many busted assignments in single high coverage, had issues with angles and finishing tackles, and subsequently didn’t have a good PFF grade last year (67.0).

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Velus Jones, Jr., WR/RB/KR, Tennessee – flashed big-time speed, but never really put it together as a WR until his sixth season in college. Outstanding returner, the Packers need reliability and production back there. Note how I listed RB – he has decent size (6’0”, 203), and the Packers could see him in a Tyler Ervin type of role on offense.

 

7^th round (#228): Ryan Van Demark, OT, Connecticut – has outstanding length (35.5” arms, 85.5” wingspan), but has concerns about strength and playing too upright. He answered questions about his agility and athleticism at their pro day, showing great footwork and a 7.39 3-cone time, which is great for his height and size, along with adequate strength. The Packers need to replace two OTs, and I think they’ll draft two. (replaces Dennis Kelly)

If he’s still available: Samori Toure, WR, Nebraska – Badgers fans will remember Toure being wide open during the Nebraska game, and Toure then did the same thing at the Shrine game. Toure transferred from Montana where he dominated FCS, and showed he could do the same at FBS. Outstanding route runner who is fluid in and out of his breaks, creating great separation. Reportedly ran in the 4.4’s at their pro day. Not as big as advertised (6’1”, 191), but puts in great effort in blocking.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Eric Johnson, DT, Missouri State – small school prospect with good size (6’4”, 299) and length (34” arms) who ran an impressive 4.86 40 at his pro day. Impressed enough at the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl to earn an invite to the Senior Bowl, and carries almost no bad weight on him. With only five DL on the roster they could double-up with one pick early and one late.

 

7^th round (#249): Joey Blount, S, Virginia – productive four-year starter who accumulated 9 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles, 19.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks over his career, for some reason he was left off of the combine list but more than made up for it at their pro day. Ran a 4.38 40, 6.76 3-cone, 4.16 short shuttle, 30” vertical, and 20 reps on the bench. (replaces Henry Black)

If he’s still available: Kyron Johnson, LB, Kansas - Johnson was a bit miscast as an OLB at Kansas as he doesn't have the size to play edge, but teams will be looking at him as an off-ball LB after he ran a 4.40 at his pro day with a 39" vertical.  2nd team all Big 12 last year with eight career forced fumbles.  At the minimum will be a great special teams player, and gave Abraham Lucas fits in Senior Bowl practices.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Faion Hicks, CB, Wisconsin – UW’s defense finished fifth in the nation in passer rating against, and the play of their corners was a big reason for it. Hicks blew up their pro day, running a 4.37 40, 3.94 short shuttle (which would have tied McCollum for best of any player at any position at the combine), 6.78 3-cone, and left many wondering why he wasn’t at the combine. Hicks is better suited for the slot than the outside where he played at UW.

 

7^th round: (#258): Scott Patchan, Edge, Colorado State – over the last two years Patchan was one of the most productive edge rushers in FBS, accumulating 17 sacks and 27 TFL in 16 games. Typical high-motor guy, there were questions about his athleticism that he answered at their pro day – he put up 29 reps on the bench, which would have been tops among all edge rushers at the combine, and ran a very good 40. (replaces Rivers/Hamilton/Mercilus)

If he’s still available: Juanyeh Thomas, S, Georgia Tech – Thomas is more of a box safety/big nickel, but he did that well. Three year starter who forced six fumbles in his career, his best opportunity might be on special teams where he excelled. He’s returned 34 kicks in his career, including taking two to the house as a freshman, plus a handful of punts.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Isaac Taylor-Stewart, CB, USC – size/length/speed prospect who didn’t always play up to his ability at USC, he’s worth a flyer for his traits but needs to improve his technique. Could become an effective press man corner.

Players who I'll probably regret leaving out: George Karlaftis, Channing Tindall, Romeo Doubs, Dominique Robinson, Carson Wells


UDFAs:
Zander Horvath, RB/H-Back, Purdue
Bryant Koback, RB, Toledo
Andrew Ogletree, TE, Youngstown St.
Jack Sorenson, WR, Miami (OH)
Jalen Virgil, WR/RB/KR, Appalachian State
Alec Anderson, T/G, UCLA
Josh Seltzner, G, Wisconsin
John Ojukwu, OT, Boise St.

Daron Bland, CB, Fresno State
Tayler Hawkins, CB/S, San Diego State
Scott Nelson, S, Wisconsin
Tariq Carpenter, S/LB, Georgia Tech
Storey Jackson, LB, Liberty
Aaron Mosby, OLB, Fresno State
Ralfs Rusins, DT, Liberty
Kevin Atkins, DT, Fresno State
Blake Hayes, P, Illinois

 

[brewcrewdue80]

Seen a little bit on mocks and it gave me this insight on a trade or twice in the 1st round.  Seems a few believe KC will move up to draft a new WR1.  ahead of GB at 21 or a few picks higher.

I've also seen Seattle mocked the QB from Ole Miss Matt Corral.  McShay suggested with the #40 pick.  You could gain draft capitol with 2 stones here.   KC has 29 and 30.  GB very much can just offer KC their 22 increasing the likelihood they get their WR for KC's 30th pick.  at 28 you are ahead of KC's 2nd pick and get the next option or 2 at WR with it.   Now having heard about Seattle looking at what is essentially the 4th QB on the board Corral, There's the 5th year rookie option gained by selecting him in the 1st.  Detroit is apparently in on the 3rd QB which is Desmond Ritter from Cincy.  at #32  But who knows maybe the two like the same QB or Det is just happy to let a guy fall down to them.  But you're talking moving from 22 to 40 with 2 trades that net you additional 4th round picks or say you manuever a 2nd that gets both Seattle's 40-41.  We've seen the likes of Watson or Pierce as high boom potentials.  Maybe the trade down comes from 28 for 40 after selecting you WR at 22. 

Don't know how the OL rank tier wise as compared to what WR rank tier-wise.  Pulling something off where you drop to 30 from 22 and then gain 40 and 41 could provide a decent chance to grab 2 of 3 of the two types who fall down beyond expectations.  The 4th round selection I seen and heard Jeremy Ruckert as a potential huge fill at TE with what is said NFL blocking talent from day 1.  The fact he was so far down the offense go to after Wilson, Olave and the RBs they use, he figures as a potential sleeper as a pass catcher grade.  So while not Woods you gain a new and younger Mercedes Lewis to play with.

 

I looked at trade pick values and Seattle checks in at 990 for 40-41. Gb checks in at 970 for 28 and 59.  The 30scenario after trading down with KC would require 53 and both fit 990. But I'd imagine you would want a lil extra for that 5th yr option so maybe Sea 5th for GBs 7th. Something to watch for though since values on 28-59 fall just a touch in GBs favor. 

[Underachiever]

"1^st round (#28): Arnold Ebiketie, Edge, Penn State"

Pass. I'm still not over Bruce Clark.

[Joseph Zarr]

13 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Every year I say I'm not going to do this again, but who am I kidding - it's tradition.  Not sure how this will look in the new format (probably painful), but here goes.  Mods, feel free to break off into a separate thread for predictions.

Heading into the draft, I think the biggest questions that will affect who the Packers draft and when are at offensive tackle. Do they think Bakh will be ready to go? What is the prognosis of Jenkins returning, and will he be able to backup at OT when he returns or will the knee not be ready for that? Do the Packers believe that Newman and Van Lanen, both of whom are listed as “T/G” on the Packers.com roster, can actually play RT?  Do they see Nijman long-term and will they be able to sign him long-term? With only nine OL on the roster – two of whom are exclusively centers – the Packers will need to address depth with multiple picks; the question is which rounds and which positions. If Bakh is healthy they don’t need starters – they’re set with Bakh, Runyan, Myers, Newman, and Nijman while waiting for Jenkins to return. But they will need backups capable of playing multiple positions.

Between less players participating in testing at the combine and less info available about testing at pro days, guessing the later round picks and UDFAs is getting more difficult. But here goes.

1^st round (#22): Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State – the Packers need at WR is well-documented, and so is Aaron Rodgers lack of trust in rookies. He needs an excellent route runner who knows where he is supposed to be and Olave is the best in the draft class at that. As smooth as they get, and has the athleticism to get separation at all three levels. Needs to improve his strength, but they can move him around in the formation. Ohio State expects their WRs to be good run blockers too, and Gutes personally attended OSU’s pro day. (replaces Davante Adams)

If he’s still available: Drake London, WR, USC – two-sport athlete good enough to play on the USC basketball team, he has the WR size that the Packers covet. Elite catch radius and also at using strength and leverage to create separation. Basketball background makes body positioning and high-pointing the ball natural. In 7.5 games last year had 88 catches for over 1,000 yards when the opponents knew he was getting the ball and also broke 22 tackles. He may not “take the top off” the defense, but this draft has plenty of guys who can do that who they can get later.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia – the Packers covet elite athleticism, and Wyatt demonstrated that by running a 4.77-40 at the combine. Disruptive, great lateral movement, high effort at chasing down the play. Like other Georgia defenders his stats were deceivingly low because of so many playmakers in their front seven; PFF gave him a 90.1 grade and ranked him first in positively graded play rate against the run and 10th in pass-rush win rate. DT isn’t nearly as deep as WR is, so the Packers may go with athleticism at DT and address WR later.

 

1^st round (#28): Arnold Ebiketie, Edge, Penn State – the Packers value pass rush and Ebiketie is one of the best in this draft class as evidenced by his 90.5 PFF pass rushing grade and 52 pressures. Ebiketie brings urgency off of the snap and can quickly penetrate gaps, as evidenced by leading the Big Ten in TFLs. Athletic, explosive (38” vertical), excellent pass rusher who also has special teams experience; Badgers fans will remember he blocked the FG against them, one of two blocked field goals on the season. Gutes personally attended Penn State’s pro day. (replaces Za’Darius Smith)

If he’s still available: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas – Burks is a WR in a RB’s body, and it shows in his brand of play as he averaged almost 10 YAC. Burks has huge hands and great body control and leverage, allowing him to overcome average athleticism. He’s also great at tracking deep balls, which may come from having been an all-state centerfielder. Any questions about his ability can be answered by looking at the Alabama tape where he had 8 catches for 179 yards and 2 TDs despite everyone knowing he was getting the ball. Even if they go WR at #22, I could see them doubling up on Burks or taking Burks at #22 if Olave and London are gone.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan – former TE who moved to OT before the 2020 season, Raimann is just scratching the surface of what he can do. The instincts and technique aren’t quite there yet, but he has the natural quickness and footwork to set out to NFL edge speed and has the strength to anchor on the bull rush. The Packers have to replace two OTs, Bakh may not be all the way back yet, and Nijman will be a RFA after the season and if he plays as well as he did last year they may not be able to afford him long-term. PFF grade of 94.6 last year.

 

2^nd round (#53): George Pickens, WR, Georgia – He’s a first round talent, but his injury history will push him down; normally a 4.47 40 at the combine is a great time but this year it was fairly average and perhaps speaks to not being 100% back from the ACL injury, and he didn’t run the agility drills. Needs to improve play strength, route-running, and show confidence in his knee to get separation and thus I don’t think he goes as high as some think, but I think the Packers go for the upside here and could use one of their 4^th round picks to move up to get him or trade down from #28 and grab him early in the 2nd. Lowest drop rate (2.7%) of any of the top WR prospects. (replaces MV-S)

If he’s still available: Boye Mafe, Edge, Minnesota – Mafe has explosive traits, but I don’t think he will go as high as some think because of a lack of instincts which usually translates into a lack of production. He won’t be required to start though, so the Packers can develop his explosive traits in a backup role like they did with Rashan Gary.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Quay Walker, ILB, Georgia – Walker didn’t test as well as some expected, but he is instinctive with quick recognition and response and plays disciplined, team-oriented football. Perhaps his best calling card is his size (6’4”, 240) which lends to covering TEs and playing either inside or outside.

 

2^nd round (#59): DeMarvin Leal, DT, Texas A&M – Leal didn’t quite meet the lofty expectations set for him this year and in his testing numbers, but was very productive with 8.5 sacks and 12.5 TFLs. A bit on the lean size, but he was an early entrant and is on the younger side. Best fit might be 3-4 DE, but he can be a designated pass rusher for a year while he develops. (replaces Kingsley Keke)

If he’s still available: Jalen Pitre, S/CB, Baylor – if you go back to Joe Barry’s introductory press conference, he talked about the importance of the nickel position and that’s what Pitre starred at in Baylor’s “Star” position. Doesn’t have the size to be the big nickel, but in the pros the nickel is much more of a DB than LB. Great agility, had one of the top 3-cone times at the combine, and is described as a “coach’s dream” with outstanding intangibles and football IQ.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Cameron Thomas, Edge, San Diego State – this past season Thomas led the nation with 72 pressures and finished with 10.5 sacks and 20.5 TFLs. He was also one of only two edge rushers with PFF grades of 85 or higher for both pass-rush and run defending; the other was Aidan Hutchinson. Plays with a rare level of effort and emotional endurance, and can line up inside on passing downs. Injuries kept him from working out at the combine and pro day which may cause him to slide.

 

3^rd round (#92): Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State – the Packers need depth at CB, and bringing back Douglas allows them to take a higher-ceiling prospect they can develop and they don’t get any higher ceiling than McCollum. Elite size (6’2”, 200), athleticism (4.33 40), explosiveness (39.5” vertical, 132 broad jump) and agility – his 3-cone and short-shuttle times were tops of any player at any position at the combine. Has some technique flaws, but takes to coaching extremely well and has elite intangibles and leadership. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s gone by this point, but if he’s there I don’t think he makes it past the Packers here. (replaces Chandon Sullivan)

If he’s still available: Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State – Lucas answered any questions about his athleticism and agility at the combine, scoring top times in the agility drills and a sub-5.00 40. Lucas’ pass protection is ahead of his run blocking, but that’s OK for the Packers; in 477 pass block snaps last year he gave up zero sacks and one hit per PFF. Has great size and length, but plays a little upright, had issues with false start penalties, and needed TE help with speed rushers (the latter two may be related).

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Troy Anderson, ILB, Montana State – Anderson started his career at RB and QB (and was all-conference at QB in 2018), then moved to LB where he also was 1^st team all-conference. Anderson has the long speed (4.42 40) but doesn’t have the instincts at this point due to being a recent switch to LB. Could also be a jumbo RB or FB in short-yardage situations. Developmental guy with high upside if they believe in Barnes for the short-term.

 

4^th round (#132): Aaron Hansford, ILB, Texas A&M – converted WR who is athletically gifted and has smooth change of direction and sideline to sideline range. Didn’t become a starter until 2020 and is still learning the position and recognizing play design and blocking schemes. Rocked up w/8% body fat, he ran a 4.6 at their pro day. Not a finished product by any means, he still has upside and has flashed blitzing ability. (replaces Oren Burks)

If he’s still available: Sam Williams, Edge, Ole Miss – another athletic freak who blew up the combine with his 4.46 speed, Williams was first team all-SEC this past season and was fifth in the nation with 12.5 sacks and 10^th in the nation with four forced fumbles. He’s getting knocked down for two things – a sexual battery charge in 2020 that was dropped, and for his run defense. There was a reason for the latter though – they often played him at the 4i-tech instead of OLB or 7-tech where he projects to as a pro.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Kellen Diesch, OT, Arizona State – the Packers need to replace two OTs and may use two picks on them even though they don’t need a starter right now. Diesch has outstanding athleticism and quickness, but doesn’t have the functional length (short-ish arms) and strength at this point. Good developmental prospect, and Gutes personally attended Arizona State’s pro day.

 

4^th round (#140): Zach Thomas, T/G, San Diego State – some have Thomas projected to guard, but I think he demonstrated more than enough at the combine and pro day to have a future at OT. Has the length (6’5”, 34” arms, 83” wingspan) and athleticism (4.96 40, 7.40 3-cone, 4.65 short-shuttle) that are more than adequate for the outside. His 1.67 split in the 40 is top-5 all-time for OTs, and PFF graded him out at 87.2 last season. Excellent pad level, and has room to add more muscle and improve his body composition. He can move inside if needed, but I think can stay outside and fits the Packers need for OL who can play multiple positions. (replaces Billy Turner)

If he’s still available: Jelani Woods, TE, Virginia – former QB who put up some impressive combine and pro day performances, Woods had good production but is still a bit raw with technique and the tape doesn’t quite match the athleticism. There is upside here, and IMO the Packers don’t need a TE, but he might be too good to pass up here.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Eyioma Uwazurike, DT, Iowa State – a mountain of a man (6’6”, 319) with length (35” arms, 86” wingspan), perhaps nobody took advantage of his extra year more than he did having accounted for 9 sacks and 12 TFLs this past season. Explosive as well, had the top vertical (33”) at the combine for DL and his 4.75 in the short shuttle is impressive for a man his size. Pad level gets away from him, but is the ideal 5-tech.

 

5^th round (#171): Tanner Conner, WR/H-Back, Idaho State – two-sport athlete who also competes in the hurdles on the track team, he’s perhaps the most athletic freak in the draft. Played WR but has the size of a LB (6’3”, 230) and ran a 4.37 at Washington's pro day with a 40” vertical. A bit raw on the route-running, but nobody his size runs like he does and he has an elite work ethic. Could easily add a few pounds and move to H-Back, but wherever he ends up playing he’ll be a matchup nightmare. Excels at special teams and as a senior captain played on as many special teams units as he could. Will be a special teams demon while he develops. (replaces ESB)

If he’s still available: JT Woods, S, Baylor – former track star with sprinter’s speed, he ran a blistering 4.36 40 at the combine and was productive as well with nine interceptions over the last two seasons. He’s versatile and played in all of Baylor’s safety positions, but had too many busted assignments in single high coverage, had issues with angles and finishing tackles, and subsequently didn’t have a good PFF grade last year (67.0).

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Velus Jones, Jr., WR/RB/KR, Tennessee – flashed big-time speed, but never really put it together as a WR until his sixth season in college. Outstanding returner, the Packers need reliability and production back there. Note how I listed RB – he has decent size (6’0”, 203), and the Packers could see him in a Tyler Ervin type of role on offense.

 

7^th round (#228): Ryan Van Demark, OT, Connecticut – has outstanding length (35.5” arms, 85.5” wingspan), but has concerns about strength and playing too upright. He answered questions about his agility and athleticism at their pro day, showing great footwork and a 7.39 3-cone time, which is great for his height and size, along with adequate strength. The Packers need to replace two OTs, and I think they’ll draft two. (replaces Dennis Kelly)

If he’s still available: Samori Toure, WR, Nebraska – Badgers fans will remember Toure being wide open during the Nebraska game, and Toure then did the same thing at the Shrine game. Toure transferred from Montana where he dominated FCS, and showed he could do the same at FBS. Outstanding route runner who is fluid in and out of his breaks, creating great separation. Reportedly ran in the 4.4’s at their pro day. Not as big as advertised (6’1”, 191), but puts in great effort in blocking.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Eric Johnson, DT, Missouri State – small school prospect with good size (6’4”, 299) and length (34” arms) who ran an impressive 4.86 40 at his pro day. Impressed enough at the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl to earn an invite to the Senior Bowl, and carries almost no bad weight on him. With only five DL on the roster they could double-up with one pick early and one late.

 

7^th round (#249): Joey Blount, S, Virginia – productive four-year starter who accumulated 9 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles, 19.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks over his career, for some reason he was left off of the combine list but more than made up for it at their pro day. Ran a 4.38 40, 6.76 3-cone, 4.16 short shuttle, 30” vertical, and 20 reps on the bench. (replaces Henry Black)

If he’s still available: Faion Hicks, CB, Wisconsin – UW’s defense finished fifth in the nation in passer rating against, and the play of their corners was a big reason for it. Hicks blew up their pro day, running a 4.37 40, 3.94 short shuttle (which would have tied McCollum for best of any player at any position at the combine), 6.78 3-cone, and left many wondering why he wasn’t at the combine. Hicks is better suited for the slot than the outside where he played at UW.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Baylon Spector, ILB, Clemson – high-floor, low-ceiling ILB who does everything right but nothing special. Reliable, great instincts and fundamentals, can be a solid special teamer and adequate backup.

 

7^th round: (#258): Scott Patchan, Edge, Colorado State – over the last two years Patchan was one of the most productive edge rushers in FBS, accumulating 17 sacks and 27 TFL in 16 games. Typical high-motor guy, there were questions about his athleticism that he answered at their pro day – he put up 29 reps on the bench, which would have been tops among all edge rushers at the combine, and ran a very good 40. (replaces Rivers/Hamilton/Mercilus)

If he’s still available: Juanyeh Thomas, S, Georgia Tech – Thomas is more of a box safety/big nickel, but he did that well. Three year starter who forced six fumbles in his career, his best opportunity might be on special teams where he excelled. He’s returned 34 kicks in his career, including taking two to the house as a freshman, plus a handful of punts.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Isaac Taylor-Stewart, CB, USC – size/length/speed prospect who didn’t always play up to his ability at USC, he’s worth a flyer for his traits but needs to improve his technique. Could become an effective press man corner.

Players who I'll probably regret leaving out: George Karlaftis, Jeremy Ruckert, Dominique Robinson, Carson Wells


UDFAs:
Zander Horvath, RB, Purdue
Bryant Koback, RB, Toledo
Andrew Ogletree, TE, Youngstown St.
Jack Sorenson, WR, Miami (OH)
Jalen Virgil, WR/RB/KR, Appalachian State
Alec Anderson, T/G, UCLA
Josh Seltzner, G, Wisconsin
John Ojukwu, OT, Boise St.

Daron Bland, CB, Fresno State
Tayler Hawkins, CB/S, San Diego State
Scott Nelson, S, Wisconsin
Tariq Carpenter, S/LB, Georgia Tech
Storey Jackson, LB, Liberty
Aaron Mosby, OLB, Fresno State
Ralfs Rusins, DT, Liberty
Kevin Atkins, DT, Fresno State
Blake Hayes, P, Illinois

 

This is great! Thanks for sharing. You do this every draft season? Awesome.

[Joseph Zarr]

2 hours ago, Underachiever said:

"1^st round (#28): Arnold Ebiketie, Edge, Penn State"

Pass. I'm still not over Bruce Clark.

I’m all aboard the Ebiketie train. He’s a stud.

[PeaveyFury]

14 hours ago, LouisEly said:

1^st round (#28): Arnold Ebiketie, Edge, Penn State – the Packers value pass rush and Ebiketie is one of the best in this draft class as evidenced by his 90.5 PFF pass rushing grade and 52 pressures. Ebiketie brings urgency off of the snap and can quickly penetrate gaps, as evidenced by leading the Big Ten in TFLs. Athletic, explosive (38” vertical), excellent pass rusher who also has special teams experience; Badgers fans will remember he blocked the FG against them, one of two blocked field goals on the season. Gutes personally attended Penn State’s pro day. (replaces Za’Darius Smith)

If he’s still available: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas – Burks is a WR in a RB’s body, and it shows in his brand of play as he averaged almost 10 YAC. Burks has huge hands and great body control and leverage, allowing him to overcome average athleticism. He’s also great at tracking deep balls, which may come from having been an all-state centerfielder. Any questions about his ability can be answered by looking at the Alabama tape where he had 8 catches for 179 yards and 2 TDs despite everyone knowing he was getting the ball. Even if they go WR at #22, I could see them doubling up on Burks or taking Burks at #22 if Olave and London are gone.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan – former TE who moved to OT before the 2020 season, Raimann is just scratching the surface of what he can do. The instincts and technique aren’t quite there yet, but he has the natural quickness and footwork to set out to NFL edge speed and has the strength to anchor on the bull rush. The Packers have to replace two OTs, Bakh may not be all the way back yet, and Nijman will be a RFA after the season and if he plays as well as he did last year they may not be able to afford him long-term. PFF grade of 94.6 last year.

 

Thanks for doing this Louis- a nice read as always.

Touching on #28 and your analysis: I've previously expressed my thought that the Packers may use 22 to grab someone who slides and then get their WR at 28. After more thought, I'm coming around to the inverse idea- that there's so much uncertainty over where Olave/Burks/London actually end up going that it may be the smartest play to grab whichever is there (or the one you like best if multiple) at 22, then use 28 elsewhere. In this case, I think it's very possible in my mind that they surprise us by taking more of a 'project' type that has immense, top-of-the-draft potential but needs a year of development/coaching at a position where they need depth but not a week 1 starter. In my mind, that's edge and OT for them. Wouldn't shock me at all to grab a high RAS guy like Ebiketie or an intriguing OT prospect like Raimann, who needs a bit of coaching but feels like a long-term RT solution with a year with Steno, etc. despite his age. Both would likely have the armchair GMs complaining that they could have been had in the 2nd based on the mocks they've seen, but then those complaints will quietly (mostly) disappear when they'll develop into all-pro caliber players within a couple of years.

[Joseph Zarr]

49 minutes ago, PeaveyFury said:

Thanks for doing this Louis- a nice read as always.

Touching on #28 and your analysis: I've previously expressed my thought that the Packers may use 22 to grab someone who slides and then get their WR at 28. After more thought, I'm coming around to the inverse idea- that there's so much uncertainty over where Olave/Burks/London actually end up going that it may be the smartest play to grab whichever is there (or the one you like best if multiple) at 22, then use 28 elsewhere. In this case, I think it's very possible in my mind that they surprise us by taking more of a 'project' type that has immense, top-of-the-draft potential but needs a year of development/coaching at a position where they need depth but not a week 1 starter. In my mind, that's edge and OT for them. Wouldn't shock me at all to grab a high RAS guy like Ebiketie or an intriguing OT prospect like Raimann, who needs a bit of coaching but feels like a long-term RT solution with a year with Steno, etc. despite his age. Both would likely have the armchair GMs complaining that they could have been had in the 2nd based on the mocks they've seen, but then those complaints will quietly (mostly) disappear when they'll develop into all-pro caliber players within a couple of years.

As to Wyatt and Raimann:

I am admittedly having cognitive dissonance over their age. Of the two, Wyatt, in my opinion and based on what I am seeing, is the safer pick in that he has less flaws today (and would appear to be a plug and play from Day 1) than Raimann. It appears, in multiple scouting reports, Raimann still struggles with strength and hands (not to mention, he has short arms). I can't see the Packers investing in a soon to be 25 yo, recently converted TE, with one of their higher picks. Jaire Alexander, for example, is only 7 months older than Raimann. And, Raimann has literally only played OT for 2 years. I just don't see it and, hey, I could definitely and most obviously be wrong. 

[PeaveyFury]

1 hour ago, Julio Muchacho said:

As to Wyatt and Raimann:

I am admittedly having cognitive dissonance over their age. Of the two, Wyatt, in my opinion and based on what I am seeing, is the safer pick in that he has less flaws today (and would appear to be a plug and play from Day 1) than Raimann. It appears, in multiple scouting reports, Raimann still struggles with strength and hands (not to mention, he has short arms). I can't see the Packers investing in a soon to be 25 yo, recently converted TE, with one of their higher picks. Jaire Alexander, for example, is only 7 months older than Raimann. And, Raimann has literally only played OT for 2 years. I just don't see it and, hey, I could definitely and most obviously be wrong. 

I think the assumption is that with GB's fantastic o-line staff, they'll quickly be able to address Raimann's issues. He graded out exceptionally well last year despite his limited time at the position, and I saw someplace (and don't recall where, sadly) that he allowed an absurdly low amount of PRESSURES all season. Considering that many expect him to be a legit NFL LEFT tackle, I'm confident he'd be a cornerstone at RT for Green Bay and nice insurance should Bakh struggle again with the knee.

[Joseph Zarr]

12 minutes ago, PeaveyFury said:

I think the assumption is that with GB's fantastic o-line staff, they'll quickly be able to address Raimann's issues. He graded out exceptionally well last year despite his limited time at the position, and I saw someplace (and don't recall where, sadly) that he allowed an absurdly low amount of PRESSURES all season. Considering that many expect him to be a legit NFL LEFT tackle, I'm confident he'd be a cornerstone at RT for Green Bay and nice insurance should Bakh struggle again with the knee.

My counter to this, for the sake of let's have a conversation, would be: why not simply target Tyler Smith? 21 years old. Also played LT, more size and strength but also quite nimble and agile. And, also a project of sorts, like Raimann, but he has 3 years of OL experience to add atop Raimann's 2. This is a guy, in my view, who screams: Stash and develop the Packers way. He can wait behind Yosh as they determine what they really have there and as they see how he manages a shift to RT.

That's my current thinking, at least. 

[NBBrewFan]

Due80 brings up an interesting point about the 1st round and 5th year options.  While it seems an excellent strategy regarding QB because they become extremely expensive if they are good (or Kirk Cousins), I wonder if some teams will see the current inflation of the #1 WR or perceived #1 WR market and are inclined to move into the late 1st round to draft that WR they might have waited on to fall into the early/mid 2nd? The real inefficiency in the NFL right now is WR with the large contracts/extensions being thrown around this offseason.  There are always going to be teams like the Jaguars who will throw away money on a WR.  

[LouisEly]

9 hours ago, Underachiever said:

"1^st round (#28): Arnold Ebiketie, Edge, Penn State"

Pass. I'm still not over Bruce Clark.

I think the current staff is smart enough to not ask him to move to nose tackle.

[LouisEly]

4 hours ago, Julio Muchacho said:

My counter to this, for the sake of let's have a conversation, would be: why not simply target Tyler Smith? 21 years old. Also played LT, more size and strength but also quite nimble and agile. And, also a project of sorts, like Raimann, but he has 3 years of OL experience to add atop Raimann's 2. This is a guy, in my view, who screams: Stash and develop the Packers way. He can wait behind Yosh as they determine what they really have there and as they see how he manages a shift to RT.

That's my current thinking, at least. 

Seem to be a lot of concerns about Smith's discipline and pass protection technique, and subsequently holding penalties.  The Packers are in win-now mode and can't get beat by penalties.  Long term he may have more upside, but more bust potential too.

As for age, Raimann may be more willing to sign an extension knowing that he won't be a FA until age 29/30 whereas a 21-year-old might try to test the market and go for the home run contract at prime age 26.

[Joseph Zarr]

18 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Seem to be a lot of concerns about Smith's discipline and pass protection technique, and subsequently holding penalties.  The Packers are in win-now mode and can't get beat by penalties.  Long term he may have more upside, but more bust potential too.

As for age, Raimann may be more willing to sign an extension knowing that he won't be a FA until age 29/30 whereas a 21-year-old might try to test the market and go for the home run contract at prime age 26.

Valid points I hadn't thought of. The counter to that, I would propose: Are the Packers concerned giving an extension to a guy approaching age 30? That seems to be the ripe old age when they let most of their OL walk. Tho, counter to my counter would be: perhaps, this isn't a typical OL or age-related OL prospect given his athletic vintage comes from TE stock. I guess we shall see.

[reillymcshane]

I've seen Ebiketie mocked more in the 2nd round, but he's been showing up in the lower reaches of the 1st round more often of late - including being picked by the Packers. Love the guys work ethic and non-stop motor. 

[CheezWizHed]

Nicely done once again @LouisEly.  Do you focus on Packer visits to guess who the Packers are lookiing for? Buy any draft info to put it together or just read a lot of free stuff on the internet?  Just curious.

I'm still big on Olave in the first and Pickens/Pierce in the second.  If they missed on Olave, it wouldn't break my heart to pass on London/Burks in the first and get both Pickens and PIerce in the second. 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

The Packers under Gutekunst are (wisely) a  2 contracts before 30 organization. They're not even considering a guy who will be on the doorstep of 30 after one contract with a first round pick. Under Gute the Packers have drafted 5 players in the first round in his four years. 4 of the 5 were age 21 and the other was 22. You can safely cross Raimann off your lists. Unless maybe he drops to the 2nd round where contracts max out at four years.

[madbad2000]

9 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Nicely done once again @LouisEly.  Do you focus on Packer visits to guess who the Packers are lookiing for? Buy any draft info to put it together or just read a lot of free stuff on the internet?  Just curious.

I'm still big on Olave in the first and Pickens/Pierce in the second.  If they missed on Olave, it wouldn't break my heart to pass on London/Burks in the first and get both Pickens and PIerce in the second. 

I'm not a big London fan.  He looks like Mike Evans at times and then others completely pedestrian.  I like Olave a lot and he looks like he could probably be the most NFL ready and help a team out of the gates.  I also like Burks a lot. Just watching his tape shows a great football player that makes plays against anyone from multiple spots on the field.  Im not sure I would bet on Pickens being around in the 2nd for the Packers.  Pierce could possibly be there, but it feels like the mid first to the mid second will be WR dominated.  Starting with Atlanta at 8, I have 16 teams that could realistically take a WR before the Packers come around at 52.  That's just teams, not including number of picks which many of these teams having multiple before 52. It also wouldn't surprise me to see some of these teams double up on WR early to include GB (probably not likely in Rd 1)  Chicago could easily take one at 39 and 48 and no one would question it.  If Philly trades/cuts Reagor would it shock anyone to see them take 2 between 15, 18 and 51?  Just going off my own ideas, I would bet that Pickens, Watson and Pierce all end up being top 50 picks.

[PeaveyFury]

53 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

The Packers under Gutekunst are (wisely) a  2 contracts before 30 organization. They're not even considering a guy who will be on the doorstep of 30 after one contract with a first round pick. Under Gute the Packers have drafted 5 players in the first round in his four years. 4 of the 5 were age 21 and the other was 22. You can safely cross Raimann off your lists. Unless maybe he drops to the 2nd round where contracts max out at four years.

Though I don't share your apparent confidence in my knowledge about the Packers' thought process, I think you've actually countered your own argument with your last sentence. The Packers could draft him in the first to get the 5th year, then simply let him walk at age 30, getting 5 years of all-pro caliber RT play on a rookie contract then moving on without paying him big money, ever.

[PeaveyFury]

10 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

I've seen Ebiketie mocked more in the 2nd round, but he's been showing up in the lower reaches of the 1st round more often of late - including being picked by the Packers. Love the guys work ethic and non-stop motor. 

I agree- seems like a late riser as people look to his general athletic rankings and overlook the one apparent concern, which is his size for the position. The question would be whether the Packers would have him ranked enough ahead of the 'next-tier' edge guys like Mafe, Drake Jackson, or Ojabo to take him at 28, knowing that he's unlikely to make it to 53.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

14 minutes ago, PeaveyFury said:

Though I don't share your apparent confidence in my knowledge about the Packers' thought process, I think you've actually countered your own argument with your last sentence. The Packers could draft him in the first to get the 5th year, then simply let him walk at age 30, getting 5 years of all-pro caliber RT play on a rookie contract then moving on without paying him big money, ever.

They draft with the intent of getting 2 contracts out of players. They're not going to use a first rounder on someone with the intent on letting him walk after his first contract. I didn't contradict anything. I'm actually surprised what I stated isn't common knowledge by now. Gute's concrete preference for youth and athleticism from his first rounders is well documented. Just a really weird argument to make.