Packers 2022 NFL Draft Discussion

[madbad2000]

18 minutes ago, Mr Southpaw said:

You have convinced me!  He looks perfect.  Why is he not rated higher?

 

 

He will be and likely already is on teams draft boards.  With the lack of top end talent in this draft at TE and the increasing importance of the position, it wouldn't surprise me to see him end up in the 2nd round to the top of the third. 

[PeaveyFury]

19 hours ago, Julio Muchacho said:

A few things here:

(1) It's clear PFF has Bernhard Raimann quite highly ranked. I really like his game quite a bit but I have a hard time seeing him going Rd. 1. He seems, to me, to be a classic Rd 2 guy. It will be interesting to see where he lands.

I think that PFF has him ranked so high because of tools and potential, as I think he's a BIT undervalued otherwise because he switched to the OL position so late. I've seen stuff online about how pairing him with a brilliant o-line mind like Steno could yield amazing results. So it remains to be seen if PFF is just on him earlier than others or if they have him weirdly overvalued.

In most of the simulations, you have to take him at 22 to get him, which I agree is a bit of a stretch. But, he seems like the classic Gute-type pick at 28 where the other talking heads think they reached for a 2nd-round type guy and then he has an all-pro caliber career at RT for the next 10 seasons.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, PeaveyFury said:

I think that PFF has him ranked so high because of tools and potential, as I think he's a BIT undervalued otherwise because he switched to the OL position so late. I've seen stuff online about how pairing him with a brilliant o-line mind like Steno could yield amazing results. So it remains to be seen if PFF is just on him earlier than others or if they have him weirdly overvalued.

In most of the simulations, you have to take him at 22 to get him, which I agree is a bit of a stretch. But, he seems like the classic Gute-type pick at 28 where the other talking heads think they reached for a 2nd-round type guy and then he has an all-pro caliber career at RT for the next 10 seasons.

Raimann is the type of player that can rocket up draft boards late in the game, and then wind up either becoming a great player or bust depending on what type of coaching he receives and whether his mentality/commitment to get better allows him to realize the potential his physical tools project.  Would I be happy to see the Packers draft him late in Round 1 or Round 2?  Sure - but I'm guessing there are lineman with a similar athletic profile needing a bit more development that aren't getting as much helium who could be mined out in the middle rounds should the Packers place a higher value on players at other positions to pick in rounds 1 and 2 in this year's draft.

Regarding O-line draft prospects, one good way to get quality talent in the middle rounds is if you have scouts that can identify toolsy players who don't have the established on-field pedigree or game tape to prove they are going to be quality NFL players.  Bakhtiari was a perfect example of that, as he was a 4th round pick that scouts viewed more as a development project who probably came out 1 year early.

[homer]

Watson seems to be blowing up. Fine with him or Olave

[PeaveyFury]

Without a doubt, the most exciting 'no-trades' draft I've landed thus far. Olave and Burks in the first along with Bonitto and Lucas would be a monstrous haul in the 1st and 2nd, IMO.

 

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, PeaveyFury said:

Without a doubt, the most exciting 'no-trades' draft I've landed thus far. Olave and Burks in the first along with Bonitto and Lucas would be a monstrous haul in the 1st and 2nd, IMO.

 

I love it when you get that random Mock you are completely content with. I've been saying 'Cole Strange' and 'Zach Tom' are worth it for the names alone.

Bonito is a really interesting hybrid modern Edge/OLB guy. One of those new age modern NFL multi-tools. He'd be really interesting in their pool of Edge depth.  Where I seem to find myself consistently, when considering Packers Edge, is mining for a size and violence in a developmental prospect. I find guys with mass and juice to be, in my limited mind, more 'Packers' guys given they tended to play more Nickel sets where the ILB (ergo, Devandre) was the primary coverage Backer. I gravitate to the Ebiketies, Mafes, and two guys I find vastly underrated, in Kentucky's Josh Paschal - who, imo, is about as Zadarius Smith as a sleeper prospect can get (and, no, not because they attended the same college lol) - and SDSU's Cameron Thomas. 

As an overall commentary on this draft, I'd say it's a bit heavy on OL in those early rounds. I think they'll add a Safety and a TE early. But, what the hell do I know. What matters here is you came away happy with the results. That's a successful mock!

[PeaveyFury]

1 hour ago, Julio Muchacho said:

As an overall commentary on this draft, I'd say it's a bit heavy on OL in those early rounds. I think they'll add a Safety and a TE early. But, what the hell do I know. What matters here is you came away happy with the results. That's a successful mock!

I think that's fair. I think this played out because of the immense value that seems to be there at o-line in the late 2nd through 4th rounds.

[Joseph Zarr]

More TE Draft intel from muh Guy Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network:

* Trey McBride had an extremely surprising performance at his Pro Day yesterday. He ran faster than anyone was prepared for: a 4.54 40 apparently. He has now moved into the TE 1 and TE2 conversation most likely coming off the board in the 2nd round. His belief is the other clear Rd 2 TE is Greg Dulcich of UCLA.

A Quick Note Here: 

Recall, Wydermyer had an egregiously bad Pro Day and is now a candidate to go undrafted in his eyes. Pre-Draft Process darling Isaiah Likely (Coastal Carolina) has tested fairly pedestrian throughout the pre-draft process and appears to be falling tho he also believes he will provide good value in, say, Rd 3 or early 4 as he plays much faster than he times. AND, Jeremy Ruckert has an ongoing, and potentially concerning, lower leg injury and was seen in a walking boot during his Pro Day. 

* Another TE who is clearly rising up draft boards is Maryland's Chigoziem Okonkwo - he has tested quite well and had an excellent Pro Day. He sees him as an early Rd 4 riser as a very intriguing Move TE prospect. 

* Interestingly, he didn't mention a single thing on my early TE Draft crush, Jelani Woods (posted about above) but his colleagues in their Draft Analyst department, Oliver Hodgkinson and Ian Cummings (who have a very enjoyable podcast for you Draft nerds, btw) have fallen in love with Woods as a prospect and they believe he may go as early as Round 2. We shall see.

If you're in to this type of draft coverage: REALLY good convo here today. He goes into precise detail of 3rd round round value at WR where I personally think the Packers will find many a target to potentially add to their WR room. Also goes into detail on Day 3 interior OL. Tony's breadth of draft knowledge is really uncanny.

(Start at the 51:50 mark and it is straight into the conversation)

 

[reillymcshane]

I love all the notes about prospects people provide. Thanks.

[LouisEly]

Can we please not post PFF mock drafts?  They take up too much screen space, and they are not terribly accurate in terms of who will be available when. 

IMO, the guys at NFL.com (Zierlein, etc.) are more accurate as they have more access to NFL scouts and player personnel executives.

[Joseph Zarr]

21 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Can we please not post PFF mock drafts?  They take up too much screen space, and they are not terribly accurate in terms of who will be available when. 

IMO, the guys at NFL.com (Zierlein, etc.) are more accurate as they have more access to NFL scouts and player personnel executives.

I have no problem with the Mocks posted - but, I'm also looking at all of this on my desktop. Are you on a Mobile? I think the joy of posting a Mock for an individual isn't that they think this is what is going to happen but it is, rather, a kind of declaration: 'I'd be really excited if this happened'. I have fun doing the Mocks myself because on any given day a Board may have changed and been adjusted since Pro Days have taken place or the trades proposed or the results are just wildly different than the time or two prior. 

Also, as to accuracy: I would loosely argue nobody is really all that accurate, and, I've found over the 22 some stupidly obsessive years I've followed the Combine and the Draft season NFL.com certainly isn't gospel either - Bucky, Jeremia, and Reuters can be wildly off-base just as anyone else. If a given individual finds they like a certain pool of players or the ratings used, I say, have at it. I tend to lean Pro Football Network for my mock drafts. Occasionally, I'll use Ross Uglem's RAS-tilted Packers board at Fan Speak (tho, one finds even tho Ross' list 'should' be tilted Packers it, too, is often found to be suspect with what the Packers actually do...ie, they can be unpredictable. Imagine that.). I don't use The Draft Network simply because I don't like to pay for any of these services. I guess, on a personal level, that's where I tend to throw my hands up at the entire process and trust I'll gather enough free information to form confident amateur opinions. Lol.

Anyhow, that's just my two centavos. 

[Joseph Zarr]

3 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

I love all the notes about prospects people provide. Thanks.

Glad to hear it! I love sharing it as I'm listening to this stuff almost daily this time of year. I'm a self-admitted draft nerd. However, I've been obsessing over this long enough I no longer get emotionally invested one iota in the outcome of the Packers draft. We simply never know. And, even when we think we do, we still might be wrong. 

What I do love throughout the process, however, is finding my Draft crushes. That is a very real thing. I always want my beloved and heartbreaking Packers to select at least some of them, but, I enter the Draft knowing I may not see a single one in the Green and Gold. And, that's just how it is. 

[Joseph Zarr]

7 hours ago, homer said:

Watson seems to be blowing up. Fine with him or Olave

Watson is indeed blowing up. His athletic numbers are unreal and are literally in the Megatron class of wideout athleticism. 

The concerns with Watson are he has shown a small tendency to lose concentration and suffer from drops, he had limited route responsibilities due to how he was used, and he played at an FCS Level (tho, I would argue, that is becoming increasingly meaningless). Where he shines as a prospect is his versatility and the threat he provides with the ball in his hand. NDSU used him all over their offensive sets. He thrives in jet sweeps and those odd route concepts that get the ball in his hands early and in space - to that end, you could see how he could really thrive in a LaFleur led offensive system. What is also quite interesting, and not talked about all that much, is he is essentially an All-American as a Kickoff returner to boot. This is from #1 NDSU football fan, Ross Uglem:

 

[madbad2000]

I prefer pro football network simulator over pff, but I do mix it up.  I fine it gives me more entertainment to mix it up.  Otherwise you fall into the trap of thinking the board is set and then disbelief how the rounds unfold in real life.  

[Joseph Zarr]

19 minutes ago, madbad2000 said:

I prefer pro football network simulator over pff, but I do mix it up.  I fine it gives me more entertainment to mix it up.  Otherwise you fall into the trap of thinking the board is set and then disbelief how the rounds unfold in real life.  

Certainly nothing wrong whatsoever with diversifying your approach and avoiding the all too easy mind traps. Good stuff.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm not certain I'm a believer of Watson in the 1st round, but second round yes... 

And.. I think I'm becoming a Woods believer.  His floor seems to be easily Mercedes as a blocking TE...  But with that athleticism, it would seem that the upside is pretty huge. 

[NBBrewFan]

19 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Can we please not post PFF mock drafts?  They take up too much screen space, and they are not terribly accurate in terms of who will be available when. 

IMO, the guys at NFL.com (Zierlein, etc.) are more accurate as they have more access to NFL scouts and player personnel executives.

One way to clean them up is to "quote"/reply to one of your previous posts, delete the "quote" and paste the image into the quote area.  Then when it's posted most of the image is hidden and you can click on "expand" to see the details.  Might help to reduce the image "space" for those using devices.

[NBBrewFan]

2 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

 

As Above

[Joseph Zarr]

34 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

As Above

This seems like a really good solution. Someone still can post their Mock BUT also address the problem another poster is having. Good work!

[Joseph Zarr]

In the vein of 'Don't be surprised if the Packers...'

(1) Take a Safety in Round 1

(2) Draft an interior OL or Edge in Rd 1

(3) Target an unheralded but fast riser in Rd 1 - such as, UConn interior DL Travis Jones

(4) Don't draft a WR in Rd 1 because Olave, Williams, Wilson etc are all gone.

(5) Trade out of one of their Rd 1 picks to accumulate more value in a very dense Top 100

 

[brewcrewdue80]

Watch Gutey trade up and  pick a QB and trade Love for a 6th rd selection.  Seriously though Gutey having 2 1sts and 2 2nds, I don't see how he avoids trading up. In all likelihood he has his decision made up who he will trade up for if they reach a falling point. Olave for instance, I could envision he's convinced Olave won't make it below 17th selection and should he make it through 15th pick trades up to 16 to select him.  Sure you can appreciate the aggressiveness, but he's done it twice where the projection was below that selection.  That's what pains me using high draft capitol and overpaying on the toy using it on. Then somebody slides of course and you are unable to move up and get that new toy on a discount.

22 and 28 is perfectly reasonable to use 1 and trade down in to very early 2nd rd. It seems lately the at least 4 of first 6 2nd round selections are players expected to have been selected in 1st round. The draft capitol for trades really drops on what it takes to move up. Think I've said something like this before but I'd love to fill a draft with 2nd 3rd and 4th rd picks and make nearly none in the 5th-7th rds.(1 preferably for drop value)  UDFAs seem to hit as much or more with impacts to the team than the 6th and 7th rd guys.

[PeaveyFury]

2 hours ago, Julio Muchacho said:

In the vein of 'Don't be surprised if the Packers...'

(1) Take a Safety in Round 1

(2) Draft an interior OL or Edge in Rd 1

(3) Target an unheralded but fast riser in Rd 1 - such as, UConn interior DL Travis Jones

(4) Don't draft a WR in Rd 1 because Olave, Williams, Wilson etc are all gone.

(5) Trade out of one of their Rd 1 picks to accumulate more value in a very dense Top 100

 

Regarding 2- I'd be very interested to see what happens if Zion Johnson or Tyler Linderbaum fall. You'd be getting immense value in the 20s for two stud-potential interior o-linemen. Edge becomes an easy pick if Jermaine Johnson falls.

To your overall point, a lot of people seem to think that they'll take 2 WR, but it seems far more likely they'd grab BPA at 22 when someone unexpectedly falls, then rely on the immense WR depth in the 2nd to grab their guys there. Coupled with a modest trade back from 28 to the early/mid 30s and grabbing an extra pick, that could be quite effective.

[Joseph Zarr]

30 minutes ago, PeaveyFury said:

Regarding 2- I'd be very interested to see what happens if Zion Johnson or Tyler Linderbaum fall. You'd be getting immense value in the 20s for two stud-potential interior o-linemen. Edge becomes an easy pick if Jermaine Johnson falls.

To your overall point, a lot of people seem to think that they'll take 2 WR, but it seems far more likely they'd grab BPA at 22 when someone unexpectedly falls, then rely on the immense WR depth in the 2nd to grab their guys there. Coupled with a modest trade back from 28 to the early/mid 30s and grabbing an extra pick, that could be quite effective.

I'm actually hearing quite a bit of chatter that Linderbaum is potentially falling out of the First Rd. He hasn't really tested and teams are starting to think he is attempting to hide (I don't necessarily believe this, btw) what some already suspect or know: Short arms and light and small for the Interior of the NFL. I can't help but think, however, this kid has a wee bit of Creed Humphrey-like doubting in the Mix. Teams are overthinking a guy who is clearly a stud.

[Joseph Zarr]

Jelani Woods. People are starting to see and discuss what I've been saying. Here's Ben Fennel with a direct comp:

And, here he is in all his glory:

This is truly the most Packer I've felt about a TE prospect possibly ever? I wouldn't think twice if we used one of our 2nd's OR drafted out of the 1st to acquire a 2nd and 3rd to ensure we have the Capital to grab this young man.

*I highly suggest clicking on the 2nd Tweet to see 2 more clips of Jelani absolutely mauling. The man is a Beast.*

[homer]

3 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

One way to clean them up is to "quote"/reply to one of your previous posts, delete the "quote" and paste the image into the quote area.  Then when it's posted most of the image is hidden and you can click on "expand" to see the details.  Might help to reduce the image "space" for those using devices.

Great tip. Thanks for sharing.