Aaron Rodgers Trade ideas

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I still think people are overestimating the Rodgers return. We shall see.

 

When was the last time that a two-year consecutive League MVP was traded, though? This situation is pretty unprecedented. Especially if he is willing to sign an extension with whatever team he goes to, they could be looking at up to a 5-year window of contention with him, considering he's said on numerous occasions that he wants to continue to play into his mid-40s.

 

Yes, injuries may happen, or the wheels may come flying off athletically at some point, but other than a somewhat down 2019 season under a new coach, there really hasn't been much indication of that.

[OldHeidelberg]

The team that trades for him will also get the 22 season at a very reasonable $26 million. So the Packers should expect some compensation just for the fact that they are essentially picking up part of the money on that year,

[Fear The Chorizo]

The team that trades for him will also get the 22 season at a very reasonable $26 million. So the Packers should expect some compensation just for the fact that they are essentially picking up part of the money on that year,

 

I'm pretty certain thats not how it will work, especially once Rodgers signs a new contract. Teams aren't going to send multiple 1st round picks for a qb on a 1 yr deal and then have him be a free agent for 2023.

 

And even if Rodgers stays in GB, it will be under a new contract. His 2022 cap number is an incentive to deal Rodgers if he wants to move on - but if he wants to stay its just as big an incentive to hammer out a new contract and lower his 2022 cap number themselves.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Its too bad the Giants are a salary cap mess and most of their roster in the trenches stinks....that pair of top 10 1sts would look pretty good headlining a trade package for #12, and including Golladay as a cap relief receiver in his prime on a market value contract (assuming he can ever stay healthy) would be a good way to offset losing Adams in a hypothetical package deal.

 

Even if Golladay is talented, I doubt GB would want to take on a big cap number receiver as part of this sort of trade, and the Giants are definitely in rebuild mode. Otherwise, playing in NY would definitely be attractive to Rodgers.

Edited January 29, 2022 by Fear The Chorizo

[OldHeidelberg]

The team that trades for him will also get the 22 season at a very reasonable $26 million. So the Packers should expect some compensation just for the fact that they are essentially picking up part of the money on that year,

 

I'm pretty certain thats not how it will work, especially once Rodgers signs a new contract. Teams aren't going to send multiple 1st round picks for a qb on a 1 yr deal and then have him be a free agent for 2023.

 

And even if Rodgers stays in GB, it will be under a new contract. His 2022 cap number is an incentive to deal Rodgers if he wants to move on - but if he wants to stay its just as big an incentive to hammer out a new contract and lower his 2022 cap number themselves.

 

If the trading team needs cap room in 22 yes they will rework it to move money to future years but they are not going to just tear up a 1 year 26 million dollar deal. The extension dollars will really cover future years no matter how they move the money around. I could be wrong here but it seems like bad fiscal policy to essentially tear up his deal and start over at 46 million a year or whatever if that is what you are saying. That applies if he stays as well.

 

edit: just checked and Denver has a projected 48 million in cap space in 22, if it is them I would expect them to let him play at the 26 million in 22 and give him an extension that starts in 23.

[homer]

If you trade Rodgers, you may as well trade Adams too. Rodgers to Denver, Adams to Las Vegas. Receive 4 1st round picks and then go fishin'.

[reillymcshane]

3 first rounders and 2 seconds for a 38 year old QB is nuts anyway. No one is doing that.

The Rams gave up two 1sts and a 2nd and Goff for Matthew Stafford. Stafford was 33 and under contract for two years. If that is the cost for Stafford, Rodgers should be higher.

 

Rodgers is 38 - but the guy is coming off two consecutive MVP years. Even at his age, he's immensely valuable. His new team can give him a new contract, and essentially plug him in for the next three years.

 

Yes, it does take a team to bite - but a club like the Broncos is primed to contend - and they will do what it takes. And their ability to land a great QB is limited. No one expects it to happen via the draft. And the FA market is full of question marks. And who else is available? Perhaps Russell Wilson. But he'll cost a ton as well.

 

No matter, if Rodgers does request a trade, it will be fascinating.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Eh, I'm not so sure about that in regard to Stafford. It's assumed LAR will extend him beyond that and that's much easier to do once you already have him. I'd guess that happens this off-season. If anything I'd guess they get something very similar to what Detroit got. I don't think it's going to be significantly more if at all.

 

I know most think Rodgers is playing until 42 or 43, and he very well could, but teams are going to weigh that risk and use it as a bargaining chip. True that he hasn't had any serious injuries and hasn't really shown decline, but at 39, that can show up overnight.

[OldHeidelberg]

No matter, if Rodgers does request a trade, it will be fascinating.

 

Man, you aren't kidding. If nothing else it gives something to talk about to get our minds off another postseason failure. It's sort of like the Lucroy trade talk during a down season for the Brewers.

[rickh150]

Three first round picks the next three even years (2022, 2024, 2026) and two 2nds the next two odds (2023, 2025) would be a great haul. I can’t believe Denver wouldn’t do that immediately for 12.

I’m all for cashing in on Rodgers now and setting up the future. This kind of opportunity doesn’t come along often.

I could be mistaken, but I think the NFL only allows teams to trade draft picks 3 years out (so in this case, 2022-2024).

 

I think you are right. When 2022 draft begins, I believe 2025 picks can also be traded. I’ll adjust to 1st rounders in 2022, 2023, 2nd rounders in 2023 and 2024, 3rd rounders in 2022 and 2024.

[MrTPlush]

I think there is a really good chance Rodgers and Adams might be a package deal if he gets traded. So, to me, I think the potential teams have to have the capital/willingness to pony up money for Rodgers and Adams...plus giving Adams a big contract.

[JosephC]

The Packers will want a big package for Rodgers, so the team that trades for him will pretty much have to work out an extension prior to any trade being finished. Based on the recent history, that could very well end up being a big sticking point. Every team in the league knows that, before 2018, Rodgers signed a 4-year deal worth 134 million in which 98.2 million was guaranteed, so 33.5 million per season and nearly 25 million guaranteed if that is looked as on a per year basis. Then just a couple years later, he was crying because other QBs were making more money than him. In other words, coming off a MVP and maybe a second MVP season, Rodgers won't be looking to play at any discount. He'll very likely want to be the highest paid QB in the NFL in terms of annual money.

 

So now I look at the top paid QB in the league on a per year basis and that is Patrick Mahomes at 45 million. Then I look at the deal that Josh Allen just signed and that guarantees 60%. If I'm trading for Rodgers, I'm fairly positive that, to keep him happy, I'm going to have to go above Mahomes number and likely hit the Allen number and, thankfully due to his age he probably won't be asking for a seven year deal...but I'd expect to have to go at least four years and then just hope and pray that he doesn't throw a little hissy fit after a couple years like he did the last time.

 

So I'm thinking we'd be looking at a new deal where 2022 of his current deal is thrown out. Probably 4 years, 192 million with about 120 million of that guaranteed. Probably something like an 82 million dollar signing bonus, roster + workout bonuses that would be 8.25, 8.75, 9.25, 9.75 and base salaries that would be 12, 15, 22, 25 (bonuses and base salaries guaranteed for first two seasons). So the yearly cap numbers would be 40.75, 44.25, 51.75, 55.25. Then those guys can deal with the mess after Rodgers actually receives checks for 102.25 million the first year and then it drops to 23.75 million the next year.

 

So I don't see the Rodgers + Adams trade as a likely scenario because the team is already going to be carrying a 40+ million dollar cap number on Rodgers and then would have to tie up another roughly 20 million dollars with Adams/franchise tag. Even if a team works out a new deal with Adams that has a cheaper 10 million dollar cap hit in the first year, by the third year that number would likely be up in the 20 million dollar range. Certainly teams can afford to have a 40 million QB and a 20 million WR...but I just don't see this as likely in a trade scenario. But the first year thing is the biggest problem because a team would be adding 40 million in a QB and 10 million in a WR and there are just a handful of teams that could afford to do this in 2022 and most of those teams already have a young QB prospect that they have invested heavily in.

 

I don't think the Hackett hiring was just a coincidence. They had success with bringing in Manning. Now they can use Hackett and the playbook as incentives to try and get Rodgers to sign a contract if they get a deal worked out.

 

I'd predict-

 

Broncos get-

QB - Aaron Rodgers

2022 5th round pick

 

Packers get-

2022 1st round pick (#9 overall)

2022 3rd round pick

2023 1st round pick

2023 2nd round pick

 

Assuming Denver has a good year in 2022 with Rodgers and is picking something like 25th in the 2023 draft...but the Ourlads trade value chart, the points value of the picks are 1350 (#9 in 2022), 215 (#75 in 2022), 720 (projected #25 in 2023), 145 (projected #89 in 2023) = 2430. Then subtract out 23.8 for the 5th going back to Denver and it's 2406.2 going to Green Bay. 2400 is halfway between a #2 and #3 overall pick on the chart, IMO that would represent a pretty reasonable deal for both sides.

 

As far as Adams, I think he just leaves as a free agent and the Packers get a 3rd round comp pick for him. I'd be pretty impressed if Gutekunst could pull off some deal where he franchises him and is able to trade him for a higher draft pick.

 

It kind of sucks because Rodgers pretty much holds all the cards here. If Denver or any other team comes calling and Rodgers refuses to sign an extension, the Packers won't get anything near the package I outlined above.

 

Above contract figures all came from-

https://overthecap.com/

 

The Ourlads trade chart-

https://www.ourlads.com/nfldraftvalue/

 

If the trade and comp pick situation happens as outlined above, the Packer drafts for the next couple of years would look like this-

 

2022-

#9 (1st round pick - from Denver)

#28 (1st)

#59 (2nd)

#75 (3rd - from Denver)

#92 (3rd)

#128 (4th)

#137 (4th - projected compensatory pick, Corey Linsley)

#225 (7th - from Chicago through Houston, for Ka'dar Hollman)

#246 (7th)

#256 (7th - projected compensatory pick, Jamaal Williams)

 

2023-

1st round pick

1st round pick (from Denver)

2nd round pick

2nd round pick (from Denver)

3rd round pick

3rd round pick (compensatory, for Adams)

4th round pick

5th round pick

7th round pick

7th round pick (from LA Rams, Rams got Packers 6th round pick and Packers got Corey Bojorquez and Rams 7th round pick)

 

Above info from:

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks/

https://tankathon.com/nfl/full_draft

[LouisEly]

What about a 3-team?

 

Franchise Adams

GB sends Rodgers + Adams to Denver.

Denver sends 1st & Jeudy to GB and 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to Seattle

GB sends Jordan Love to Seattle

Seattle sends Russell Wilson + 1st to GB.

 

Denver gets Rodgers, Adams

Seattle gets 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Love

GB gets Wilson + Jeudy + two 1sts (Wilson would need to be extended to fit under the cap)

 

Who says no?

[nodakfan17]

It’s my understanding that the last day to place the franchise tag on Adams is March 8 and the new league year doesn’t begin until March 16 - thus, the Packers can’t use a Rodgers trade as a mechanism for clearing cap space and tagging Adams. They’d need to cut and gut.

 

Any chance I’m mistaken? I’d really hate to only receive a 3rd round comp pick for Adams (which would probably turn out to be a 4th because of course).

 

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2022/01/30/packers-expected-to-use-franchise-tag-on-wr-davante-adams/

[OldHeidelberg]

It’s my understanding that the last day to place the franchise tag on Adams is March 8 and the new league year doesn’t begin until March 16 - thus, the Packers can’t use a Rodgers trade as a mechanism for clearing cap space and tagging Adams. They’d need to cut and gut.

 

Any chance I’m mistaken? I’d really hate to only receive a 3rd round comp pick for Adams (which would probably turn out to be a 4th because of course).

 

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2022/01/30/packers-expected-to-use-franchise-tag-on-wr-davante-adams/

 

I am not sure but I don't think they need the space the day they tag him, only at the same time they need to be under for everything else so a Rodgers trade could be arranged and then completed the first day of league year to get them under? Seems odd that they would put teams in a weird timing bind like you are saying.

[LouisEly]

It’s my understanding that the last day to place the franchise tag on Adams is March 8 and the new league year doesn’t begin until March 16 - thus, the Packers can’t use a Rodgers trade as a mechanism for clearing cap space and tagging Adams. They’d need to cut and gut.

 

Any chance I’m mistaken? I’d really hate to only receive a 3rd round comp pick for Adams (which would probably turn out to be a 4th because of course).

 

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2022/01/30/packers-expected-to-use-franchise-tag-on-wr-davante-adams/

I'm not following you. Rodgers can be traded at any time, they don't have to wait until the start of the league year. If he's traded before 6/1 it will save ~$20M from the Packers 2022 cap.

[nodakfan17]

I'm not following you. Rodgers can be traded at any time, they don't have to wait until the start of the league year. If he's traded before 6/1 it will save ~$20M from the Packers 2022 cap.

Ah. Perhaps that’s where I am mistaken. I didn’t think he could be traded until the start of the new league year.

[OldHeidelberg]

I saw what you did that trades start on 4PM of the new NFL year but also saw that Stafford was traded on Jan 30 last year so it appears LouisEly is correct. I think it just can't be submitted until the new year as is what happened with Stafford. I found this from the link below, looks like you have 8 hours after the start of the new year to submit transactions which is how the Packers would get the trade in before the cap deadline:

 

March 16: The 2022 League Year and Free Agency period begins at 4:00 p.m., New York time. Clubs will receive a Personnel Notice that will include all transactions submitted to the League office during the period between 4:00 p.m., New York time, and 11:59:59 p.m., New York time, on March 16.

 

The trading period for 2022 begins at 4:00 p.m., New York time, after the expiration of all 2021 contracts.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/giants/news/2022-key-nfl-off-season-dates-announced#:~:text=Clubs%20will%20receive%20a%20Personnel,expiration%20of%20all%202021%20contracts.

[reillymcshane]

What about a 3-team?

 

Franchise Adams

GB sends Rodgers + Adams to Denver.

Denver sends 1st & Jeudy to GB and 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to Seattle

GB sends Jordan Love to Seattle

Seattle sends Russell Wilson + 1st to GB.

 

Denver gets Rodgers, Adams

Seattle gets 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Love

GB gets Wilson + Jeudy + two 1sts (Wilson would need to be extended to fit under the cap)

 

Who says no?

I love the creativity. Well done.

[adambr2]

I guess my first question though would be how we managed to clear 70M or so in cap space to not only franchise Adams but do it without first restructuring/extending Rodgers.

[OldHeidelberg]

I guess my first question though would be how we managed to clear 70M or so in cap space to not only franchise Adams but do it without first restructuring/extending Rodgers.

 

Trading Rodgers first clears 20 and the 20 for Adams only needs to be cleared for a day and you get it back. Most moves outside of that are things we have to do to get under the cap anyway, there have been a few recent posts listing them I think.

 

Edit: just thinking of my post earlier on the Rodgers trade timing which may be incorrect, do we even need to clear space for Adams if we sign and trade him on Mar 18th?

[adambr2]

I guess my first question though would be how we managed to clear 70M or so in cap space to not only franchise Adams but do it without first restructuring/extending Rodgers.

 

Trading Rodgers first clears 20 and the 20 for Adams only needs to be cleared for a day and you get it back. Most moves outside of that are things we have to do to get under the cap anyway, there have been a few recent posts listing them I think.

 

Edit: just thinking of my post earlier on the Rodgers trade timing which may be incorrect, do we even need to clear space for Adams if we sign and trade him on Mar 18th?

 

How are we clearing 20 first by trading Rodgers first if he's being traded at the same time?

 

Yes, we need cap space to franchise Adams before trading him. He will be a free agent and not even ours to trade otherwise.

[PeaveyFury]

You have to be at or under the cap at the start of the league year. Trades aren’t processed until after the league year starts regardless of when the trade is agreed to.

[OldHeidelberg]

Are you sure we need to clear space before franchising Adams or does that need to be done at the time when all teams need to be under the cap? I couldn’t clarify that anywhere when googling earlier.

[OldHeidelberg]

You have to be at or under the cap at the start of the league year. Trades aren’t processed until after the league year starts regardless of when the trade is agreed to.

 

Ok so the post above by nodakfan17 about trading Rodgers not helping clear space for Adams tag is correct? The 8 hour thing I posted above to submit transactions must be related to something else.