"Buy Low" Free Agents...

[Lathund]

Rosario had a good 100 PA with Atlanta and then was part of their WS team, but we should look beyond the recency bias. His 98 wRC+ last year was within 1 point of both Jace Peterson and Lorenzo Cain for example. He is a 105 wRC+ career hitter, who plays average-ish defense in LF. That can still be a useful player, but probably not the best way to spend $9m AAV if that's all there is to spend. Brosseau provides the same level of offense (106 wRC+, albeit in a much smaller sample) while playing all over. Jace Peterson's offense has been similar to Rosario over the last two years (99 wRC+ vs 102) and he too plays all over. Tyrone Taylor covers all the OF spots. And then there's the question of whatever Keston Hiura can do this season.

 

Reason I bring all these names up is that Brewers have a bunch of league average-ish hitters already for the bench/platoons, some with more versatility than Rosario, others with higher upside. All of them much cheaper. With the DH now confirmed, and the need for versatility largely covered, I'd say that if you're going to spend money on a bat get a bat who's clearly better than what you have.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Rosario had a good 100 PA with Atlanta and then was part of their WS team, but we should look beyond the recency bias. His 98 wRC+ last year was within 1 point of both Jace Peterson and Lorenzo Cain for example. He is a 105 wRC+ career hitter, who plays average-ish defense in LF. That can still be a useful player, but probably not the best way to spend $9m AAV if that's all there is to spend. Brosseau provides the same level of offense (106 wRC+, albeit in a much smaller sample) while playing all over. Jace Peterson's offense has been similar to Rosario over the last two years (99 wRC+ vs 102) and he too plays all over. Tyrone Taylor covers all the OF spots. And then there's the question of whatever Keston Hiura can do this season.

 

Reason I bring all these names up is that Brewers have a bunch of league average-ish hitters already for the bench/platoons, some with more versatility than Rosario, others with higher upside. All of them much cheaper. With the DH now confirmed, and the need for versatility largely covered, I'd say that if you're going to spend money on a bat get a bat who's clearly better than what you have.

 

The bolded parts are the main ideas I took away from this, because they contradict each other IMO. Unless I'm missing something, there are no bats that are demonstrably better than what they have that they are going to be able to go out and acquire for $9m AAV. That leaves you with a player like Rosario who you hope has found something in a relatively small sample that you can capitalize on, much like what Castellanos did a few years ago after his trade to Chicago.

[JosephC]

Rosario is maybe worth a one year deal for a team in the Brewer's situation, but there is no way I'd go on a multi-year deal with him. Since the beginning of 2019 his OBP is just .305, and he'll be in his age 30 season next year. I have an admitted bias against low OBP players, so that's pretty much enough information right there to make me skeptical. But to look further in the numbers, at Fangraphs, the projections have him from being anywhere from a 1.7 to 0.8 WAR player in 2022, the average of 7 different estimates comes out to 1.25 WAR. So over the two years he probably projects somewhere between 2 and 2.5 WAR total for those two seasons. I just don't think the Brewers are a team in a position to spend 8-9% of their payroll to get a player that OBP's somewhere around .305 and is worth a bit over 1 WAR. We have to give guys like Taylor the opportunity and hopefully he can do better.

[TURBO]

I think it's a mistake to keep ignoring Taylor and what he brings. So many of the guys I've seen brought up in these threads offer nothing more than Taylor really.

 

Yes, Taylor hasn't played a full season as a starter, but why not give him a look, then if he doesn't work out, search for someone at the deadline?

 

We just can't afford to pay guys 10 million that really offer nothing more than Taylor will.

 

We need to concentrate on a big bat infielder, and roll with our outfield as it stands imo.

[Lathund]

Rosario had a good 100 PA with Atlanta and then was part of their WS team, but we should look beyond the recency bias. His 98 wRC+ last year was within 1 point of both Jace Peterson and Lorenzo Cain for example. He is a 105 wRC+ career hitter, who plays average-ish defense in LF. That can still be a useful player, but probably not the best way to spend $9m AAV if that's all there is to spend. Brosseau provides the same level of offense (106 wRC+, albeit in a much smaller sample) while playing all over. Jace Peterson's offense has been similar to Rosario over the last two years (99 wRC+ vs 102) and he too plays all over. Tyrone Taylor covers all the OF spots. And then there's the question of whatever Keston Hiura can do this season.

 

Reason I bring all these names up is that Brewers have a bunch of league average-ish hitters already for the bench/platoons, some with more versatility than Rosario, others with higher upside. All of them much cheaper. With the DH now confirmed, and the need for versatility largely covered, I'd say that if you're going to spend money on a bat get a bat who's clearly better than what you have.

 

The bolded parts are the main ideas I took away from this, because they contradict each other IMO. Unless I'm missing something, there are no bats that are demonstrably better than what they have that they are going to be able to go out and acquire for $9m AAV. That leaves you with a player like Rosario who you hope has found something in a relatively small sample that you can capitalize on, much like what Castellanos did a few years ago after his trade to Chicago.

 

One thing I've liked about the Stearns regime is that they don't get locked in on an idea, but stay flexible. If there isn't a better bat to spend $9m on, and you don't think Rosario is worth $9m, then the best solution isn't to sign him to a multi-year deal despite that. Instead you spend the $9m where it gets you the most wins, even if it's not in the corner OF/DH power hitting role which seems like the most obvious need. And if you have to settle for something similar to what you already have, then at least make it a 1-year deal. Now if the team has scouted Rosario properly and genuinely believe (and not just "hope") he's somehow a better hitter, then by all means sign him. I just think he's someone people overrate because of Atlantas late-season form, without looking at the whole.

 

But the key takeaway is that if you can't find one bat for $9m AAV who clearly makes you better, then don't spend $9m on one bat. Take your chances on a much cheaper bat, and spend the money where you get more value for it. Whether that be an elite defender, or a couple of relievers, or whatever it might be. Or free up more money and get someone better.

[StearnsFTW]

Personally have no interest in Rosario. We already have Renfroe. They're pretty similar. I understand the platoon idea, but I'm not paying $9MM for him. If they could get him on a 1/4 type deal, sure, but as Joseph said, that money can be spent better elsewhere.

[Roderick]

I think it's a mistake to keep ignoring Taylor and what he brings. So many of the guys I've seen brought up in these threads offer nothing more than Taylor really.

 

Yes, Taylor hasn't played a full season as a starter, but why not give him a look, then if he doesn't work out, search for someone at the deadline?

 

We just can't afford to pay guys 10 million that really offer nothing more than Taylor will.

 

We need to concentrate on a big bat infielder, and roll with our outfield as it stands imo.

 

I think Taylor will be starting a lot in CF as it stands. No worries about him getting playing time. I hope we are more focused on getting a bat, versus where it plays.

 

I do like the idea to get a lefty bat to mix into the OF (is the central still basically all righties?), to allow Yelich to DH. And like the thought he can play 1B if Tellez doesn't pan out. But, I wouldn't want a two year deal on Rosario, and that is probably what it would take. I would rather spend more and getting a better bat. Come on down Nelson Cruz.

[nate82]

Ryan Zimmerman has retired not like he was ever an option really.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/02/ryan-zimmerman-announces-retirement.html

[Jopal78]

Personally have no interest in Rosario. We already have Renfroe. They're pretty similar. I understand the platoon idea, but I'm not paying $9MM for him. If they could get him on a 1/4 type deal, sure, but as Joseph said, that money can be spent better elsewhere.

 

The reality is, they probably can get Rosario for less than 9 million. After the 2020 season, he was put on outright waivers and every team in the league passed. Then, after he was non-tendered he signed with Cleveland for 8 million dollars; and cumulatively had another mediocre season; underperforming his career marks in OBP and SLG. In fact, his SLG% was down for the third consecutive year (.500 in '19,.476 in '20 and .435 in '21).

 

What is the crowded outfield market going to have in store for a slightly below average outfielder, 31 years old, poor defender and outside a handful of high profile games hasn't had much success in several years?

 

After writing all this out, I'd be surprised the Brewers would have any interest at all unless it was at a cut rate 1 year/5 million dollars type, or even a NRI deal with a similar guarantee if he made the team.

[jay87shot]

No to Rosario and Cruz. I would prefer to add a 1B type that could platoon with Tellez and maybe play the OF here or there. Colin Moran would be the type of player as a buy low option, however he is a left handed bat that probably doesn't fit great with Rowdy (also I would prefer Huira get another chance). Kevin Pillar in the OF wouldn't be bad but with guys like Peterson and Brosseau (maybe even Keston) able to play a little OF paying a 5th OF doesn't make sense even if one of Cain, Yelich, or Renfroe DH's most games. I still think the best way to get an impact bat is a trade.

[jerichoholicninja]

Colin Moran is an absolutely terrible hitter for a 1B/DH.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Colin Moran is an absolutely terrible hitter for a 1B/DH.

 

I have no advanced stats to back this up, but my perception has always been that Moran has traditionally owned Brewers' pitching and has killed the ball at Miller Park/AmFam Field.

[jerichoholicninja]

Career .861 OPS vs the Brewers and .740 at Miller/AmFam. So yes and also no.

 

Apparently he's also BJ Surhoff's nephew. So he's got that going for him.

[monty57]

We just can't afford to pay guys 10 million that really offer nothing more than Taylor will.

 

Good point.

 

The "problem" for the Brewers is that they have decent players to cover most positions:

 

(2021 OPS+)

 

C: Narvaez, 99 OPS+

1B: Tellez, 116 OPS+

2B: Wong, 108 OPS+

SS: Adames, 135 OPS+

3B: Urias, 111 OPS+

LF: Yelich, 99 OPS+

CF: Cain, 95 OPS+

RF: Renfroe, 112 OPS+

 

4th OF: Taylor, 106 OPS+

Util: Peterson, 93 OPS+

 

That certainly doesn't tell the whole story, but the point is that it's not cheap or easy to find a big offensive upgrade. Without a lot of money to spend, the upgrade would probably have to come from trade and that probably means weakening the pitching staff to some degree.

 

With this being the "buy low FA" thread, I think it's going to be hard to find a "buy low" position player that will be penciled in as a starter over the guys we already have. Maybe a RH 1B, but we're probably not going to replace any of our other starters with a bounce-back candidate. Any "buy low" guys will likely be in the bullpen or competing for a bench/role player spot.

[DR28]

Pham is open to playing1B.

[JohnBriggs12]

We just can't afford to pay guys 10 million that really offer nothing more than Taylor will.

 

Good point.

 

The "problem" for the Brewers is that they have decent players to cover most positions:

 

(2021 OPS+)

 

C: Narvaez, 99 OPS+

1B: Tellez, 116 OPS+

2B: Wong, 108 OPS+

SS: Adames, 135 OPS+

3B: Urias, 111 OPS+

LF: Yelich, 99 OPS+

CF: Cain, 95 OPS+

RF: Renfroe, 112 OPS+

 

4th OF: Taylor, 106 OPS+

Util: Peterson, 93 OPS+

 

That certainly doesn't tell the whole story, but the point is that it's not cheap or easy to find a big offensive upgrade. Without a lot of money to spend, the upgrade would probably have to come from trade and that probably means weakening the pitching staff to some degree.

 

With this being the "buy low FA" thread, I think it's going to be hard to find a "buy low" position player that will be penciled in as a starter over the guys we already have. Maybe a RH 1B, but we're probably not going to replace any of our other starters with a bounce-back candidate. Any "buy low" guys will likely be in the bullpen or competing for a bench/role player spot.

 

 

Peterson has a career 80 OPS+ and has designated for assignment a number of times in his career. Wong had arguably a career year, but he spent two stints on the DL and slumped noticeably over the last couple months (.238 BA and .308 OBP) and had an awful series against Atlanta. Can he hold up and be productive over 150-155 games? Tellez' sample size as a Brewer is still relatively small. He's had good and bad stretches overall. Taylor showed a lot of flashes but needs to show he can avoid slumps and be a productive hitter with 450-500 AB's. Cain is probably best used as a guy who makes 4 starts a week. Is Adames capable of repeating his 2021 season?

 

The roster looks mostly complete but it's a long season and the money they saved by dealing away Bradley should be invested in another bat that could provide solid production when the inevitable injuries and players not performing to expectations occurs. I have no illusions that they can afford a guy that will step in day one and be a middle of the order hitter. But they should be able to find a guy who'll get enough AB's to show if he has value in the range of $5-10 million range.

[wntrtxn21]

Pham is open to playing1B.

 

Other than pitching, I don't see any "buy low" free agents worth adding. I think Soler is the best of the bunch and as many have pointed out on this forum, there are serious doubts about him. Pham is going to be 34, is a poor fielder, and never played anything but OF/DH. Last year he made almost $9M and hit .229/.340 -- 15 HRs/49 RBIs. The Crew has internal options that can put up numbers equal or better than that. Very slim pickings this year.

[TURBO]

NO to Pham, just NO!

[tmwiese55]

In theory, good Cruz would be a great perfect get, proven RH power bat. But, I think the reality is whoever the primary DH is going to be will have to at least be able to play some in the field due to needing to rotate Cain/Yeli into days off. Plus, Cruz very well might have hit the wall last year. Heck, with how injury prone Yeli has become and how bad he's gotten on D it really wouldn't be the stupidest thing to plan him as primary DH. Especially if they think a big reason for his tail off the last two years has been the knee/back injuries.

[TURBO]

In theory, good Cruz would be a great perfect get, proven RH power bat. But, I think the reality is whoever the primary DH is going to be will have to at least be able to play some in the field due to needing to rotate Cain/Yeli into days off. Plus, Cruz very well might have hit the wall last year. Heck, with how injury prone Yeli has become and how bad he's gotten on D it really wouldn't be the stupidest thing to plan him as primary DH. Especially if they think a big reason for his tail off the last two years has been the knee/back injuries.

 

100% agree. I expect to see Yelich playing at least 50% of his time at DH, probably more.

 

Taylor can take the majority of the LF duties.

 

I'm not sure we have any intentions of signing a guy for strictly DH duties, which is why a guy like Cruz isn't going to happen.

 

If we sign a real bat, I expect it to be a 3B/1B type.

[Oxy]

Jorge Soler

[sveumrules]

Jorge Soler

 

Soler was projected between 2/18 (FanGraphs) and 3/36 (MLBTR), though most of the contracts signed before the lockout were coming in above the projections so I'd imagine he ends up closer to the MLBTR deal.

 

Not sure if 3/36 counts as buying low (it would tie Aramis for the 4th largest free agent deal in franchise history), but if Stearns & company think that Soler is the best bat they can afford with whatever budget room Mark A gives them, I'll trust their judgement.

[Oxy]

Jorge Soler

 

Soler was projected between 2/18 (FanGraphs) and 3/36 (MLBTR), though most of the contracts signed before the lockout were coming in above the projections so I'd imagine he ends up closer to the MLBTR deal.

 

Not sure if 3/36 counts as buying low (it would tie Aramis for the 4th largest free agent deal in franchise history), but if Stearns & company think that Soler is the best bat they can afford with whatever budget room Mark A gives them, I'll trust their judgement.

 

I dropped him from my dynasty league last July after he had a Travis Shaw type of first half. Figured he would/should be cheap-ish. Although I do vaguely remember him turning it around somewhat for the Braves, but not enough to warrant even a multi-year deal. 2/18 would be on the top end of do-able.

[wntrtxn21]

Jorge Soler

 

If they can get him cheap, Rosario. He can play LF when Yelich DHs and he's a lefty hitter.

[StearnsFTW]

It would have to be really cheap for me on Rosario. I think we talked about him already in this thread, but yeah. Like 1/4 I'd be in. He really isn't good.

 

Edit: Bottom of page 3. And I said the exact same thing then.