Random Trade Ideas

[StearnsFTW]

Bell had a good season after a horrid start. .887 OPS in the 2nd half. No real platoon split. Sign me up.

I didn't realize how good of a season Bell had until it was discussed here. Overall. 261 BA, 27 HR, .823 OPS. That's pretty solid - and right in line with his career numbers.

 

I just remember last year's terrible start (and his poor 2020 campaign).

 

Career wise - he definitely hits righties better than lefties (.839 OPS vs rights compared to .752 vs lefties).

 

Yeah, I thought about my platoon split comment after I posted it and realized it was last year that he was pretty even. Interesting to see the career split. That actually may be better than having like an .800 against both.

[TURBO]

Bell for Keston... Boom, done.

 

I am hoping against all hope that Keston figures things out again, and he is a force!

 

Imagine the boost he would provide to our line-up if he can come back to 2019 levels...

[nate82]

Bell for Keston... Boom, done.

 

I am hoping against all hope that Keston figures things out again, and he is a force!

 

Imagine the boost he would provide to our line-up if he can come back to 2019 levels...

 

I have a post in the Major League forums about Keston toning down his leg kick and he is working with a hitting coach that he has been working for since he was 9-years old I believe it was. Anyways the Brewers have approved him to meet with that coach and to work on his mechanics. Hopefully Keston can turn it around and if he can this would be a horrible trade.

[Lathund]

Bell for Keston... Boom, done.

 

I would rather keep Keston and put the ~$9m difference in salary between the two (Not to mention 3 year difference in team control) towards the best FA bat the team can afford.

[DR28]

Bell for Keston... Boom, done.

 

I am hoping against all hope that Keston figures things out again, and he is a force!

 

Imagine the boost he would provide to our line-up if he can come back to 2019 levels...

 

Man I would love that!! I would gladly take 2019 Keston as our DH!

[umphrey]

Maybe I missed some trades but I assumed the Nats wouldnt want to actually sell and waste a year of Soto

[sveumrules]

Maybe I missed some trades but I assumed the Nats wouldnt want to actually sell and waste a year of Soto

 

Nats are going to need to make a lot of moves to not waste the next year or even two of Soto...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-lockout-projected-zips-standings-national-league-edition/

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-washington-nationals/

 

Pretty brutal organization once you get past Third Millennium Ted Williams.

[JosephC]

Wow, the Josh Bell thing has come around again. I honestly think that if the Nationals called and offered up Bell for someone like Bubba Derby, that Stearns would decline.

 

Bell has 5.053 years of service time. So convert the 53 days into a percentage and he has 5.31 seasons. Then subtract out the service time gained but not played in 2020 (which amounts to 63% of a season), and Bell has played 4.68 MLB seasons. During that time he has been a 6.0 bWAR player and 4.8 fWAR player. So he is someone in the area of a 1.0 - 1.3 WAR player. Bell is projected to make 10 million in arbitration in 2022. So if you are a big market team and see 1 WAR = 9 million, Bell would have a surplus value of < 2 million if the team's metrics matched bWAR which has the higher WAR value on Bell. If you are a small market team and figure you can only spend 5 - 6 million per WAR, then Bell is a negative value player.

 

Defense and baserunning matter, and Bell is a trainwreck in both of those areas. He awful defense is well documented. Last year in Baseball Prospectus' baserunning metrics, Bell ranked #780 out of 808 players.

 

Bell has also been pretty inconsistent with the bat as well. Over the last four seasons his OPS has gone from .768 - .936 - .669 - .823. I would agree that the .669 from the COVID season could definitely be an outlier. But the last time Josh Bell's name was seriously thrown around by Brewer fans was a couple years ago when he was coming off his best OPS season of .936. The splits from that season show that he has an incredible 1.239 OPS in May, which resulting in a 1.024 OPS in the first half but only a .780 OPS in the second half.

 

If the Brewers were a 180 million dollar payroll team and figured to have 75 million to play with, Bell might be worth a 10 million investment.

 

But considering the Brewers likely are under 120 million in 2022 and probably have less than 15 million to play with, I don't see Stearns giving what could be 2/3rds of the money they have left to a guy who they just might have a negative surplus value number with the calculations they use.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Maybe I missed some trades but I assumed the Nats wouldnt want to actually sell and waste a year of Soto

 

Soto just turned 23, and the Nats are likely going to eventually sign him to a mega deal that will keep him in Washington for the next 15 years. Their roster is old, and obviously on the downslide. It is 100% time for them to offload what veteran value they have left and rebuild for a season or two. As teams like the Brewers have proven, rebuilds can happen fairly quickly in MLB. This is especially true for teams that have an all-world foundational building block like Soto to start with.

[TURBO]

Maybe I missed some trades but I assumed the Nats wouldnt want to actually sell and waste a year of Soto

 

Soto just turned 23, and the Nats are likely going to eventually sign him to a mega deal that will keep him in Washington for the next 15 years. Their roster is old, and obviously on the downslide. It is 100% time for them to offload what veteran value they have left and rebuild for a season or two. As teams like the Brewers have proven, rebuilds can happen fairly quickly in MLB. This is especially true for teams that have an all-world foundational building block like Soto to start with.

 

Remember when we thought we had an all-world foundational building block? (*cough*cough*Christian Yelich*cough*cough*)

 

Good times...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Maybe I missed some trades but I assumed the Nats wouldnt want to actually sell and waste a year of Soto

 

Soto just turned 23, and the Nats are likely going to eventually sign him to a mega deal that will keep him in Washington for the next 15 years. Their roster is old, and obviously on the downslide. It is 100% time for them to offload what veteran value they have left and rebuild for a season or two. As teams like the Brewers have proven, rebuilds can happen fairly quickly in MLB. This is especially true for teams that have an all-world foundational building block like Soto to start with.

 

Remember when we thought we had an all-world foundational building block? (*cough*cough*Christian Yelich*cough*cough*)

 

Good times...

 

I think we all better hope he still is, because this organization is going to be in a bad place for a long time if what we saw in 2018-19 turns out to be a mirage.

[umphrey]

I don't think they will admit they need to tank to get talent around Soto. Also if I were them I would worry Soto will walk if they surround him with trash.

[jay87shot]

Wow, the Josh Bell thing has come around again. I honestly think that if the Nationals called and offered up Bell for someone like Bubba Derby, that Stearns would decline.

 

Bell has 5.053 years of service time. So convert the 53 days into a percentage and he has 5.31 seasons. Then subtract out the service time gained but not played in 2020 (which amounts to 63% of a season), and Bell has played 4.68 MLB seasons. During that time he has been a 6.0 bWAR player and 4.8 fWAR player. So he is someone in the area of a 1.0 - 1.3 WAR player. Bell is projected to make 10 million in arbitration in 2022. So if you are a big market team and see 1 WAR = 9 million, Bell would have a surplus value of < 2 million if the team's metrics matched bWAR which has the higher WAR value on Bell. If you are a small market team and figure you can only spend 5 - 6 million per WAR, then Bell is a negative value player.

 

Defense and baserunning matter, and Bell is a trainwreck in both of those areas. He awful defense is well documented. Last year in Baseball Prospectus' baserunning metrics, Bell ranked #780 out of 808 players.

 

Bell has also been pretty inconsistent with the bat as well. Over the last four seasons his OPS has gone from .768 - .936 - .669 - .823. I would agree that the .669 from the COVID season could definitely be an outlier. But the last time Josh Bell's name was seriously thrown around by Brewer fans was a couple years ago when he was coming off his best OPS season of .936. The splits from that season show that he has an incredible 1.239 OPS in May, which resulting in a 1.024 OPS in the first half but only a .780 OPS in the second half.

 

If the Brewers were a 180 million dollar payroll team and figured to have 75 million to play with, Bell might be worth a 10 million investment.

 

But considering the Brewers likely are under 120 million in 2022 and probably have less than 15 million to play with, I don't see Stearns giving what could be 2/3rds of the money they have left to a guy who they just might have a negative surplus value number with the calculations they use.

 

100% Agree

 

We would likely have to send away a contract to make Bell make sense, to do that it would be Cain or Wong and then you are trading a 3-5 WAR player for a solid DH 1-3 WAR. We can easily make a platoon DH with Brousseau, Peterson, Taylor, Huira, and others (White/Singletary/Dahl/etc) able to give guys regulars breaks that value-wise make ala Moneyball.

[StearnsFTW]

Just saw a blurb that Austin Meadows may be available. He is arb eligible for the first time now.

 

Interesting guy. Great in 2019, bad in 2020, meh in 2021.

 

I don't know anything about his defense, but based on WAR, it doesn't seem very good.

 

What do we think it would take?

 

Based on the trade site, looks like Lauer, or a prospect in the Jeff Quero/Hedbert Perez range.

 

Anyone interested? Intriguing to me.

 

Link:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/02/rays-reportedly-open-to-trading-austin-meadows.html

[wallus]

Just saw a blurb that Austin Meadows may be available. He is arb eligible for the first time now.

 

Interesting guy. Great in 2019, bad in 2020, meh in 2021.

 

I don't know anything about his defense, but based on WAR, it doesn't seem very good.

 

What do we think it would take?

 

Based on the trade site, looks like Lauer, or a prospect in the Jeff Quero/Hedbert Perez range.

 

Anyone interested? Intriguing to me.

 

Link:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/02/rays-reportedly-open-to-trading-austin-meadows.html

 

Actually hit better at home than away. Sadly the first thing I looked at.

 

He looks like a platoon candidate to me. Career .875 against righties looks cromulent.

[sveumrules]

Meadows could be interesting depending on the price, not sure I'd go as high as Quero or Hedbert though if that's what it takes.

 

Over the last three seasons with TB he has started 110 games at DH and 182 games in LF/RF with a -6 DRS. So probably not a complete butcher, but not someone you want in the OF everyday either if you are trying to prevent runs in the grass.

[wallus]

Looking at the makeup of the roster currently, we could "afford" someone that you sit against lefties like Meadows. Cain, Taylor and Renfroe all do well against lhp. I am kind of hoping that Yelich DH's quite a bit to help with his back problems.

 

Having a guy like Meadows would be beneficial. Looking at his contract, he would be a 2 year guy max unless he really improves. I'd probably send a couple of lower level guys their way to make it happen.

[nate82]

I am not sure on Meadows value but maybe something like Black and Ray for Meadows would be something the Rays would be interested in.

 

Definitely would just play Meadows as the DH against RHP but I am not sure this would be a Stearns move as Meadows doesn't really give the Brewers much roster flexibility as he isn't a good OF defensively.

 

I think someone like Rizzo would make more sense in FA than trading for Meadows.

[JosephC]

I had posted the following on Meadows back in October-

 

I can't figure out MLBTradeValue's number on Austin Meadows. Over the last 3 years he's averaged 2.1 bWAR/fWAR per season. MLB Trade Rumors has him with a 4.3 arbitration estimate for next year. MLBTradeValue has him as having a surplus value of +6.5 million. So let's say he earns 4.3 + 6.0 + 7.25 in his three years of arbitration (obviously won't be tearing it up and earning much higher salaries with such a low surplus value). So that's 4.3 + 6.0 + 7.25 in money then plus another +6.5 in surplus value = 24.05 million / 9 million per win = 2.7 wins total over 3 seasons. So they are valuing him as an annual 0.9 WAR player as a 26 year old who, so far, has been more than twice as good as that.

 

I think their number on him is way low. I'd put his surplus value number in the high 20's.

 

I do think the one very legitimate argument that pushes his value down is that he has proven to be a terrible right fielder and is probably limited to left field from this point forward. He's a bad fit for Milwaukee as he probably is a left fielder exclusively and the Brewers have one of those locked in for the next 7 years. Doesn't help that Stearns seems to place value on outfield defense. But Meadows has been a .256/.334/.493/.828 hitter since the start of 2019. Hard for me to see him playing down to the level of a sub 1 WAR player over the next 3 seasons. Maybe they are expecting an Andrew Benintendi type falloff in terms of value, but Benintendi just had a solid season for the Royals (2.4 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR).

[JosephC]

I see the MLBTradeValue site has bumped him from the +6.5 million he was at in October up to +9.6 million currently.

 

The 2022 projections at Fangraphs have a high value of +3.5 WAR to a low value of +1.5 WAR. Pretty significant variation. Average of the 7 projections is +2.4 WAR. I think his surplus value should be at least +20 million.

 

I wouldn't normally be all the interested based on the Brewer's current roster construction, but like Jeff McNeil, you have to give it serious consideration if the numbers say it's a real bargain price. I'm pretty curious as to what the Rays will be asking.

[Roderick]

Definitely would just play Meadows as the DH against RHP but I am not sure this would be a Stearns move as Meadows doesn't really give the Brewers much roster flexibility as he isn't a good OF defensively.

 

Seems to me he must be pretty equivalent to Yelich for LF defense, which would mean to me that Yelich should more often than not be the DH, especially if he is hitting okay, to protect his back and other ailments. If he isn't hitting, then play Yelich in the LF until you can put him on the DL.

[jay87shot]

I would think the Rays would want a cheap MLB player and a prospect. I like Meadows a lot but I am not sure he fits in to the current team design. If we trade for an OF I think it has to be someone who can play CF unless we are going to try Yeli at 1st. Putting Yeli in the DH spot a bunch this year makes sense however we aren't going to pay Yeli $25 million a year for the next 7 years to be a DH. Eventually he has to be an everyday OF.

 

The more I scurry over options and wait for baseball to be back the more I feel that Matt Olsen is the best option. It would be great if we could find a deal to turn Hader/Houser/Lauer into prospect and then trade for Olsen (and maybe get a reliever as well). A mlbtraderumor article mentioned the JT Reamuto trade as a similar trade value to Olson. That got Sixto Sanchez (top 25 prospect), Jorge Alfaro (former top 100 with 1 decent year in bigs), and 2 throw pieces (Will Stewart and Int. Cash). The Brewers would have a hard time getting a top 25 prospect unless we trade Hader. I doubt we could throw in 2 pieces instead of 1 top 25. I would have to guess Ashby is of limits but would guess the A's would need Ashby and 1 other good prospect (Mitchell) to get a deal done unless we make a separate move.

 

Hader to the Red Sox could work as an avenue to get a top 25 or so prospect, they have Mayer, Cases, and Duran who could fit the build. Hader for Duran and a couple decent other pieces might make some sense.

 

1) Trade Hader for Duran and Jay Groome

2) Trade Duran, Ethan Small, Garrett Mitchell for Olson and AJ Puk (or maybe Lou Trevino)

3) Houser for Simeon Woods-Richardson, Ben Rortveldt, and John Gant

4)Sign Johnny Cueto 1 year

 

We replace Hader with two high upside lefties and upgrade 1st, massively boosting the lineup. We throw in Mitchell as an upgraded 3rd piece (maybe compared to 1 or 2 ancillary pieces) to get Puk or Trevino.

 

1)Wong 2)Adames 3)Yeli 4)Olson 5)Renfroe 6)DH (Tellez/Taylor, utility) 7)Urais 8)Narvaez/Severino 9)Cain

Burnes, Woody, Peralta, Lauer, Cueto, Ashby

Williams, Puk, Groome, Cousins, Suter, Gustave, Sanchez, Mejia (probably missed someone)

[wntrtxn21]

I would think the Rays would want a cheap MLB player and a prospect. I like Meadows a lot but I am not sure he fits in to the current team design. If we trade for an OF I think it has to be someone who can play CF unless we are going to try Yeli at 1st. Putting Yeli in the DH spot a bunch this year makes sense however we aren't going to pay Yeli $25 million a year for the next 7 years to be a DH. Eventually he has to be an everyday OF.

 

The more I scurry over options and wait for baseball to be back the more I feel that Matt Olsen is the best option. It would be great if we could find a deal to turn Hader/Houser/Lauer into prospect and then trade for Olsen (and maybe get a reliever as well). A mlbtraderumor article mentioned the JT Reamuto trade as a similar trade value to Olson. That got Sixto Sanchez (top 25 prospect), Jorge Alfaro (former top 100 with 1 decent year in bigs), and 2 throw pieces (Will Stewart and Int. Cash). The Brewers would have a hard time getting a top 25 prospect unless we trade Hader. I doubt we could throw in 2 pieces instead of 1 top 25. I would have to guess Ashby is of limits but would guess the A's would need Ashby and 1 other good prospect (Mitchell) to get a deal done unless we make a separate move.

 

Hader to the Red Sox could work as an avenue to get a top 25 or so prospect, they have Mayer, Cases, and Duran who could fit the build. Hader for Duran and a couple decent other pieces might make some sense.

 

1) Trade Hader for Duran and Jay Groome

2) Trade Duran, Ethan Small, Garrett Mitchell for Olson and AJ Puk (or maybe Lou Trevino)

3) Houser for Simeon Woods-Richardson, Ben Rortveldt, and John Gant

4)Sign Johnny Cueto 1 year

 

We replace Hader with two high upside lefties and upgrade 1st, massively boosting the lineup. We throw in Mitchell as an upgraded 3rd piece (maybe compared to 1 or 2 ancillary pieces) to get Puk or Trevino.

 

1)Wong 2)Adames 3)Yeli 4)Olson 5)Renfroe 6)DH (Tellez/Taylor, utility) 7)Urais 8)Narvaez/Severino 9)Cain

Burnes, Woody, Peralta, Lauer, Cueto, Ashby

Williams, Puk, Groome, Cousins, Suter, Gustave, Sanchez, Mejia (probably missed someone)

 

A good start, but there are a few problems with the trades. I think every Brewer fan would love to have Olson, but the A's will get a lot more than Duran-Mitchell-Small for him. Quite a bit more. Groome and Duran isn't nearly enough for Hader. For the Brewers pen; I don't believe either lefty are high upside guys. Groome has been in the minors for 5 years and still in AA. He isn't that good. Puk is awful. This trade would decimate the Brewers bullpen. They'd go from pretty decent to one of the worst in baseball. The Stearns would want a much better return for Houser too. Woods-Richardson (5.91 ERA-1.54 WHIP-almost a hit per inning-5.7 BBs/9) looked bad at AA and his star is fading. Rortvedt projects to be a backup catcher at best. The Brewers are loaded with his type already. Gant (4.78 FIP-1.51 WHIP-5.8 BBs/9) is an AAAA guy or a far back end of the pen guy. A very weak return for a decent SP.

[brewcrewdue80]

Carlos Rodon just signed for 2 years 44mil. Pedestrian numbers until last season. Houser is above average vs the league in every category among Batted Ball numbers. Rodon finally beat some last year and others were still behind. Think when you start to weigh what Houser's value should be it needs to start as being a 3 year 66mil value FA pitcher being acquired with upside who is clearly not about to be paid 66mil the next 3 years. 20? as a guess. 46mil+ surplus value on somebody with a sample size. Wheres that put him among prospects equal value to that?

[sveumrules]

Rodon (55 ERA- / 61 FIP-) significantly outperformed Houser (76 ERA- / 102 FIP-) in 2021. That is a 21% difference in ERA & a 41% difference in FIP.