Random Trade Ideas

[JosephC]

The Trade Values site has a 19.2 million dollar surplus value on Houser and I come up with 17.2 by my numbers. But when diving deeper into Houser's stat sheet, I'd be very surprised if MLB front offices would give that up. Frankly, he was bad in 2020, and his 2021 peripherals weren't very good.

 

There were 68 pitchers in MLB who hit 140 innings pitched in 2021 (Houser pitched 142 1/3 innings). His K% of 17.5 ranked 59th (bottom 15%), his BB% ranked 66th (bottom 5%), resulting in a K/BB of 1.64 which ranked 66th. He had a FIP (4.33) over a run higher than his ERA (3.22), and a SIERA of 4.73 which was in the bottom 15% of pitchers that threw at least 140 innings.

 

Historically his BABIP has run right around the league average of .300, but in 2021 it dipped to .259. HR/FB ratio was 18.4% in 2019 and 24.2% in 2020 but was only 13.8% in 2021.

 

Put it all together and Steamer has projected him as a 4.74 ERA/4.75 FIP/4.60 xFIP/1.1 WAR pitcher in 2022, and it's not an unreasonable projection when looking at all the numbers over the last two years.

 

Granted, he's a sinker ball pitcher and those guys tend to consistently outpitch their peripherals. But we saw how many difficulties that Keuchel had trying to get a deal in line with his past performance, and considering how awful he was last year, it probably doesn't give GMs much motivation to throw considerable resources at sinker-ballers.

 

If Houser is graded as a 1.1 WAR player in 2022, a 1.1 WAR player in 2023, and then a 0.6 WAR player in 2024 (will be his age 31 season), his surplus value is only in the 7 to 8 million dollar range.

 

I was against trading Houser, but after looking at the numbers...I'd be pretty motivated to deal him if another team offered 19 million in surplus value in one form or another. That definitely looks like it might be a prime sell high opportunity.

 

And as far if other teams would prefer Houser or Lauer, I'd bet that if given the choice, at least 25 of the other 29 teams would take Lauer over Houser.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, Houser is one of more than a few starting pitchers that the Brewers seem to have been able to work their FIP Beating Magic on since Stearns & company arrived...

 

Davies (580 IP) 3.92 ERA | 4.24 FIP

Chase (578 IP) 3.80 ERA | 4.67 FIP

Adrian (271 IP) 4.12 ERA | 4.41 FIP

Guerra (320 IP) 3.99 ERA | 4.62 FIP

Jhoulys (281 IP) 4.22 ERA | 4.55 FIP

Gio G (106 IP) 3.39 ERA | 4.09 FIP

Lauer (113 IP) 3.89 ERA | 4.20 FIP

Miley (80 IP) 2.57 ERA | 3.59 FIP

Lyles (58 IP) 2.45 ERA | 4.42 FIP

 

Collectively those pitchers posted 25.8 FIP based WAR vs 39.4 runs allowed WAR, that's almost 14 extra wins between some mixture of new fandangled analytics & good old fashioned luck.

 

One thing that might help the perception other clubs have of Houser relative to other recent Brewer FIP beaters is that he probably has the best stuff, or at least the best velocity, of the group.

[StearnsFTW]

For the record, my post using the Trade Simulator site wasn't meant to be a proposal I think makes sense in any regard, it was just to emphasize Ramirez's value. We're not getting him for Hader and spare parts, and as MadThinker points out, we likely aren't even getting him if we throw in our three most valuable prospects on top of Hader in a deal. I'd love to have him, but I don't think there's a trade out there that lands Ramirez in Milwaukee.

 

And if there is, it would almost certainly include Urias.

[jay87shot]

We get Garrett Cooper for Keston Huira

Cooper platoons with Tellez, plays some OF occasionally, and DH's. The Marlins go for the younger player with more upside,

 

We get RP Josh Staumont for Tyrone Taylor (maybe a lower level prospect)

We get a solid 7th/8th inning guy with some control the Royals get a versatile OF.

 

We get Bryan Reynolds and Chris Stratton for Mitchell, Turang, Small, Quero and Gunnar Henderson

We were close to getting Reynolds at the deadline, perhaps this could get done in the offseason.

 

Trade Hader to Dodgers for Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargel, Alex Vesia

We heal the system a little getting 2 high upside prospects and Vesia can be a late inning guy to help replace Hader

[DR28]

We get Garrett Cooper for Keston Huira

Cooper platoons with Tellez, plays some OF occasionally, and DH's. The Marlins go for the younger player with more upside,

 

We get RP Josh Staumont for Tyrone Taylor (maybe a lower level prospect)

We get a solid 7th/8th inning guy with some control the Royals get a versatile OF.

 

We get Bryan Reynolds and Chris Stratton for Mitchell, Turang, Small, Quero and Gunnar Henderson

We were close to getting Reynolds at the deadline, perhaps this could get done in the offseason.

 

Trade Hader to Dodgers for Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargel, Alex Vesia

We heal the system a little getting 2 high upside prospects and Vesia can be a late inning guy to help replace Hader

 

Says who??? I heard we were interested but never saw we were close to acquiring him.

[wntrtxn21]

We get Garrett Cooper for Keston Huira

Cooper platoons with Tellez, plays some OF occasionally, and DH's. The Marlins go for the younger player with more upside,

 

We get RP Josh Staumont for Tyrone Taylor (maybe a lower level prospect)

We get a solid 7th/8th inning guy with some control the Royals get a versatile OF.

 

We get Bryan Reynolds and Chris Stratton for Mitchell, Turang, Small, Quero and Gunnar Henderson

We were close to getting Reynolds at the deadline, perhaps this could get done in the offseason.

 

Trade Hader to Dodgers for Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargel, Alex Vesia

We heal the system a little getting 2 high upside prospects and Vesia can be a late inning guy to help replace Hader

 

I love your ideas, but your math is way, way off. The Brewers aren't going to get Staumont for Taylor and a throwin. That would almost be a give-away by the Royals.

The Brewers' pkg. to the Pirates would be about half of what the Pirates would want for Reynolds, much less Reynolds and Stratton.

The Dodger trade is again far off in surplus value. I don't think the Dodgers would ever be that desperate to get Hader.

[JosephC]

.

 

We get Bryan Reynolds and Chris Stratton for Mitchell, Turang, Small, Quero and Gunnar Henderson

 

Did I miss something?

[Devinep]

Trade Josh Bell for Keston Huira. The nats should be looking for a controllable player and the Brewers need a middle of the order bat who could split 1B/DH with Tellez

[jay87shot]

.

 

We get Bryan Reynolds and Chris Stratton for Mitchell, Turang, Small, Quero and Gunnar Henderson

 

Did I miss something?

 

Sorry, I meant Logan Henderson

[jay87shot]

We get Garrett Cooper for Keston Huira

Cooper platoons with Tellez, plays some OF occasionally, and DH's. The Marlins go for the younger player with more upside,

 

We get RP Josh Staumont for Tyrone Taylor (maybe a lower level prospect)

We get a solid 7th/8th inning guy with some control the Royals get a versatile OF.

 

We get Bryan Reynolds and Chris Stratton for Mitchell, Turang, Small, Quero and Gunnar Henderson

We were close to getting Reynolds at the deadline, perhaps this could get done in the offseason.

 

Trade Hader to Dodgers for Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargel, Alex Vesia

We heal the system a little getting 2 high upside prospects and Vesia can be a late inning guy to help replace Hader

 

I love your ideas, but your math is way, way off. The Brewers aren't going to get Staumont for Taylor and a throwin. That would almost be a give-away by the Royals.

The Brewers' pkg. to the Pirates would be about half of what the Pirates would want for Reynolds, much less Reynolds and Stratton.

The Dodger trade is again far off in surplus value. I don't think the Dodgers would ever be that desperate to get Hader.

 

Staumont was worth 1.5 WAR for a full year in the pen, Taylor was worth 1.6 in less than a half year of AB's. They are the same age and Taylor has an extra year of control, and the Royals OF is trash after Benentendi so Taylor would be a big upgrade. 4 near top 100 prospects and a wildcard prospect for Reynolds seems fair. I get that the Pirates would ideally want a top 20 overall prospect and then a couple other good names. We should get 2 top 100 prospects for Hader, maybe Vesia has more trade value than I originally that but we should get in an extra piece. When looking at similar trades from the past 3-4 years I feel like the value is close-ish.

[StearnsFTW]

IF (huge if) we were able to pull off those deals for Staumont and Reynolds there's no way in hell I'm trading Hader at that point.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Brewers aren't going to get Staumont for Taylor and a throwin. That would almost be a give-away by the Royals.

 

Sheesh, how much do you think a solid middle reliever is worth in a trade? Taylor is likely never going to be a world-beater, but he's proven that he is worthy of being a starting OFer (even in CF), and is still fairly young, controllable and inexpensive. I think that you are greatly undervaluing him for some reason.

[TURBO]

It always seems that we, as Brewers fans, do not give any credit to Taylor. He isn't the flashy name everyone wants, but he is an effective OF who can play any of the 3 positions effectively.

 

I'd like him to get a full time gig, but it looks like that isn't going to happen unless severe injuries occur.

 

I think Taylor alone straight up for Staumont would be enough, and maybe we throw in a lottery ticket if we had to.

 

Personally, I'd hold on to Taylor in that trade scenario.

 

We absolutely will need OF depth next year with Yelich and Cain penciled in as 2 of our starting outfielders.

[monty57]

It always seems that we, as Brewers fans, do not give any credit to Taylor. He isn't the flashy name everyone wants, but he is an effective OF who can play any of the 3 positions effectively.

 

I'd like him to get a full time gig, but it looks like that isn't going to happen unless severe injuries occur.

 

I think Taylor alone straight up for Staumont would be enough, and maybe we throw in a lottery ticket if we had to.

 

Personally, I'd hold on to Taylor in that trade scenario.

 

We absolutely will need OF depth next year with Yelich and Cain penciled in as 2 of our starting outfielders.

 

Agree. I thought Taylor earned a shot at a starting job, but it looks like he'll be the 4th OF this year. Due to injuries and the way the Brewers operate, I'm sure he'll get plenty of PAs throughout the season and I highly doubt that the Brewers will consider trading him. He's cheap and will play a significant role for the '22 Brewers.

[StearnsFTW]

I think Taylor is a great guy to have on your team. I'd be a little reticent to pencil him in as a starter when the goal is to win the world series, but as a 4th OF/platoon guy? Pretty darn good.

[brewmann04]

Total agree on Taylor

[jay87shot]

I would be ok with Taylor starting if we could find someone to eat Cain's contract. I think Taylor could be a sneaky 30 HR guy and really make a difference, especially if given consistant playing time. I would think he would actually get a lot of playing time this year unless we get a full time DH because I can see all 3 of the OF getting a lot of time as DH and Taylor getting near 500 ab's. Actually the more I think of it I like the Taylor for Staumont deal less because of the DH and how valuable it will be to have a top notch 4th OF.

[Eye Black]

I wouldn’t mind the Brewers trading from the lower end of their starting depth (Houser, Lauer) for a chance at hitting on some younger talent that should debut in the majors in the next year or two.

 

One team desperate for starting pitching appears to be the Twins. Players I would target in return from the Twins include 3B/2B prospect Jose Miranda as well as 1B prospect Aaron Sabato. Miranda should debut in MLB at some point in 2022, and could be a longer term solution to future years when Wong’s contract expires (i.e. move Urias to 2B and Miranda to 3B). Sabato has struggled a bit to this point in his short career, but he’s a former 1st round draft pick that still has the potential to develop into a solid power bat and he gets on base at an impressive clip.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Taylor is a great guy to have on your team. I'd be a little reticent to pencil him in as a starter when the goal is to win the world series, but as a 4th OF/platoon guy? Pretty darn good.

 

Yeah, I have a feeling Taylor is going to get as many starts in the OF as anyone. If they don't add another bat to bolster the DH spot, both Cain and Yelich will likely do a lot of DH'ing to preserve their bodies and keep their bats in the lineup.

[wntrtxn21]

I wouldn’t mind the Brewers trading from the lower end of their starting depth (Houser, Lauer) for a chance at hitting on some younger talent that should debut in the majors in the next year or two.

 

One team desperate for starting pitching appears to be the Twins. Players I would target in return from the Twins include 3B/2B prospect Jose Miranda as well as 1B prospect Aaron Sabato. Miranda should debut in MLB at some point in 2022, and could be a longer term solution to future years when Wong’s contract expires (i.e. move Urias to 2B and Miranda to 3B). Sabato has struggled a bit to this point in his short career, but he’s a former 1st round draft pick that still has the potential to develop into a solid power bat and he gets on base at an impressive clip.

 

I agree with you about Miranda. He has hit everywhere and looks to be a future star. He's been so good though, he might be untouchable to the Twins. Sabato on the other hand, I would say no thanks until he learns to make contact. He's an all or nothing swinger with power. However he hit a paltry .202 and whiffed an incredible 150 times in A ball.

[DR28]

I wouldnt mind trading for Josh Bell... Bell and Tellez can switch off at 1B and DH... Can't imagine it would cost too much to acquire him.

[wntrtxn21]

I wouldnt mind trading for Josh Bell... Bell and Tellez can switch off at 1B and DH... Can't imagine it would cost too much to acquire him.

 

I would really be on board with getting Bell. He's is a switch hitter that doesn't strikeout much and only making about $8M. He is a FA after this year so that alone should keep his price down. Bell could be the big bat the Brewers desperately need if they can aquire him at the right price. However there probably are quite a few teams besides the Brewers looking at him.

[StearnsFTW]

Bell had a good season after a horrid start. .887 OPS in the 2nd half. No real platoon split. Sign me up.

[reillymcshane]

Bell had a good season after a horrid start. .887 OPS in the 2nd half. No real platoon split. Sign me up.

I didn't realize how good of a season Bell had until it was discussed here. Overall. 261 BA, 27 HR, .823 OPS. That's pretty solid - and right in line with his career numbers.

 

I just remember last year's terrible start (and his poor 2020 campaign).

 

Career wise - he definitely hits righties better than lefties (.839 OPS vs rights compared to .752 vs lefties).

[DR28]

Bell for Keston... Boom, done.