Random Trade Ideas

[jay87shot]

I thought it might be fun just to throw out random ideas for trades or free agents while we are waiting on things to happen.

 

1) Trade Wong to White Sox for Craig Kimbrel (Money to balance out salaries) and a lottery level prospect.

2) 3 team deal We get=Jose Ramirez and a reliever from Toronto or Cleveland

Toronto=Josh Hader

Cleveland=Alejandro Kirk, Gunnar Hogland, Otto Lopez, and a low level prospect from Milwaukee

 

1 step farther

3) Trade Lorenzo Cain to Detroit for Matt Boyd

4) Trade Eric Lauer to NYM for Brandon Nimmo and Sean Reid-Foley (or a decent prospect, like borderline top 10 in org.)

 

In the 1st trade we improve our offense dramatically swapping Wong for Ramirez (Urias to 2nd) and the bullpen still remains strong. Then the step further the Cain trade we shed some money and then sell high on Lauer using Boyd as a stopgap until our young 2 lefties are fully ready. In return, get a top notch leadoff guy in Nimmo to replace Wong/Cain.

 

I think all of the trade work out pretty well except I don't like that Nimmo has 1 year of control and has really only played 1 full year.

[brewerfan82]

I would love to get Ramirez, but I think you're probably underselling his value quite a bit here. For fun (as I know it's not a definitive source of value) I tried to make this work in the Trade Simulator:

 

 

In order to get close to equal value, the "low level prospect from Milwaukee" going to the Guardians ending up having to be Frelick, Mitchell, and Turang...

 

That said, I think this thread is a fun idea and exercise while we wait for actual baseball news to pick up again!

[umphrey]

One of the ones I read elsewhere but found interesting was

Woodruff and Hiura for Walsh and Adell

Not sure I say yes but very tempting for both sides

 

I am personally hoping for an Ashby + 2 top 10 prospects for Olson deal and probably make Wiemer untouchable, maybe Mitchell too

[wntrtxn21]

I thought it might be fun just to throw out random ideas for trades or free agents while we are waiting on things to happen.

 

1) Trade Wong to White Sox for Craig Kimbrel (Money to balance out salaries) and a lottery level prospect.

2) 3 team deal We get=Jose Ramirez and a reliever from Toronto or Cleveland

Toronto=Josh Hader

Cleveland=Alejandro Kirk, Gunnar Hogland, Otto Lopez, and a low level prospect from Milwaukee

 

1 step farther

3) Trade Lorenzo Cain to Detroit for Matt Boyd

4) Trade Eric Lauer to NYM for Brandon Nimmo and Sean Reid-Foley (or a decent prospect, like borderline top 10 in org.)

 

In the 1st trade we improve our offense dramatically swapping Wong for Ramirez (Urias to 2nd) and the bullpen still remains strong. Then the step further the Cain trade we shed some money and then sell high on Lauer using Boyd as a stopgap until our young 2 lefties are fully ready. In return, get a top notch leadoff guy in Nimmo to replace Wong/Cain.

 

I think all of the trade work out pretty well except I don't like that Nimmo has 1 year of control and has really only played 1 full year.

 

The biggest problem I see is I think you are way under estimating what it would take from the Brewers to make some of these trades. In the first trade is the White Sox have Garcia at 2B and I don't think they would have any interest in one year of Wong, especially if they had to send money along with Kimbrel.

In the second trade IMO it would take a lot more than a low level prospect from the Brewers going to the Guardians. They would want top level prospects and the Jays would also want something more.

No way the Mets trade Nimmo much less Nimmo and Foley for just Lauer. It would take much more from the Brewers.

[sveumrules]

One of the ones I read elsewhere but found interesting was

Woodruff and Hiura for Walsh and Adell

Not sure I say yes but very tempting for both sides

 

I don't think that is tempting at all.

 

Given the way Stearns & company have approached 1B during their time here I'd imagine they don't value Walsh anywhere near as highly as they value Woodruff.

[wntrtxn21]

One of the ones I read elsewhere but found interesting was

Woodruff and Hiura for Walsh and Adell

Not sure I say yes but very tempting for both sides

 

I am personally hoping for an Ashby + 2 top 10 prospects for Olson deal and probably make Wiemer untouchable, maybe Mitchell too

 

IMO it would be a monstrous give away if the Brewers made that trade with the Angels. The Angles would have to do something like Walsh/Sandoval/Marsh/+ to get Woodruff/Hiura.

[umphrey]

One of the ones I read elsewhere but found interesting was

Woodruff and Hiura for Walsh and Adell

Not sure I say yes but very tempting for both sides

 

I don't think that is tempting at all.

 

Given the way Stearns & company have approached 1B during their time here I'd imagine they don't value Walsh anywhere near as highly as they value Woodruff.

Probably true. The WAR gap between the pairs is projected at a difference of about 0.2 for next year. Walsh + Adell come with a ton more team control (I consider Hiura a 0 value throw in) and they address a big need. Walsh is on the extremely short list of guys we could get that is actually a clear everyday upgrade at 1B, and I believe in Adell long term and even in 2022.

[mlloyd10]

One of the ones I read elsewhere but found interesting was

Woodruff and Hiura for Walsh and Adell

Not sure I say yes but very tempting for both sides

 

I am personally hoping for an Ashby + 2 top 10 prospects for Olson deal and probably make Wiemer untouchable, maybe Mitchell too

 

We are losing so much value with that trade

 

Houser alone probably gets gets you Walsh

 

If im trading Woodruff, im including Cain and I'm asking for Marsh, Walsh and Detmers.

[umphrey]

One of the ones I read elsewhere but found interesting was

Woodruff and Hiura for Walsh and Adell

Not sure I say yes but very tempting for both sides

 

I am personally hoping for an Ashby + 2 top 10 prospects for Olson deal and probably make Wiemer untouchable, maybe Mitchell too

 

We are losing so much value with that trade

 

Houser alone probably gets gets you Walsh

 

If im trading Woodruff, im including Cain and I'm asking for Marsh, Walsh and Detmers.

Haha, this thread is starting to sound like other teams offering their spare parts for Josh Hader. Walsh was about their 3rd or 4th best player last year and he's under team control for 4 more seasons. Houser was roughly our 13th or 14th best player and he's under control for 3 more seasons. We aren't getting Walsh for Houser.

[MNBrew]

I would love to get Ramirez, but I think you're probably underselling his value quite a bit here. For fun (as I know it's not a definitive source of value) I tried to make this work in the Trade Simulator:

 

 

In order to get close to equal value, the "low level prospect from Milwaukee" going to the Guardians ending up having to be Frelick, Mitchell, and Turang...

 

That said, I think this thread is a fun idea and exercise while we wait for actual baseball news to pick up again!

I know there's plenty of solid math behind these values & calculators, but there's no reason at all the Brewers should be giving up three top-level prospects AND the best closer in baseball for Jose Ramirez. That logic seems patently absurd. Hader himself is worth a considerable haul.

 

On top of that, if it were just the Brewers-Jays part of this proposal, is Hader really worth only the three prospects shown here that don't even rate as highly as the three Brewers prospects would hypothetically have to include with Hader to net Jose Ramirez in the full deal?

 

Part of the issue here seems to be that the value of prospects is still based on potential that may or may not ever be fully realized at the MLB, whereas Hader & Ramirez are known & fully proven.

[MadThinker88]

Jose Ramirez is not being traded for a bunch of players that includes 2 SS in the return package...

I've written this before on this chat board- Turang is good prospect but he has more value to the Brewers and to other teams than CLE. Same can be said for Lopez.

 

Currently CLE has 8 MIF on its 40 man MLB roster. Of those 3 played at AA or AAA in 2021 (Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio) and are ranked in either the Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects in baseball.

 

Tyler Freeman #63 on BA

Brayan Rocchio #66 on BA & #47 on BP

Gabriel Arias #100 on BA & #57 on BP

 

CLE had a roster crunch coming into the 2021 Rule 5 roster deadline & honestly has another roster crunch coming for the 2022 Rule 5 roster deadline. They are not going to trade 1 player to bring back 6 where most/ all have to be added to the roster now or by the 2022 Rule 5 roster deadline. Any JRam trade needs to bring back high quality, not high quantity...

 

BTW- If the word is accurate that a minority owner (with path to majority ownership) has been found is true, then odds favor Jose Ramirez signing an extension instead of getting dealt.. When John Sherman (now owner of KC) came on as a CLE minority owner in 2016, CLE spent the money, made the FA signing of Edwin E after the 2016 season & had payrolls over $100M until Sherman departed to buy the Royals...

[brewerfan82]

For the record, my post using the Trade Simulator site wasn't meant to be a proposal I think makes sense in any regard, it was just to emphasize Ramirez's value. We're not getting him for Hader and spare parts, and as MadThinker points out, we likely aren't even getting him if we throw in our three most valuable prospects on top of Hader in a deal. I'd love to have him, but I don't think there's a trade out there that lands Ramirez in Milwaukee.

[MNBrew]

For the record, my post using the Trade Simulator site wasn't meant to be a proposal I think makes sense in any regard, it was just to emphasize Ramirez's value. We're not getting him for Hader and spare parts, and as MadThinker points out, we likely aren't even getting him if we throw in our three most valuable prospects on top of Hader in a deal. I'd love to have him, but I don't think there's a trade out there that lands Ramirez in Milwaukee.

Definitely understood that. Wasn't pointing my response at you, rather at the idea.

 

On some level we obviously have more good tools to understand how front offices may think & quantify data/stats, but unless any of us are parts of front office discussions, what player nets what return in a trade is still conjecture on our parts.

 

One thing that doesn't seem to come up much in discussions about Hader is that besides the fact that he's been pretty darn consistent in his production -- and at a near-elite if not outright elite level -- he's also been really, really healthy & durable to date. That adds value beyond just stats.

[TURBO]

I'm starting to think we will never get the "knock your socks off" offer for Hader.

 

It seems the teams that need him just aren't willing to give that kind of offer for him or he'd be gone already.

 

He is elite enough that at this point, I'm fine with keeping him until he leaves via free agency.

 

No way I come off my asking price to any team just to get "something" in return. Especially if that team is the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, or any other large market team looking to rape the Brewers for their stud closer.

 

I'm fine with having an elite closer until he's gone...

[nate82]

I think the Blue Jays would be more interested in getting Ramirez than Hader.

[Roderick]

No way I come off my asking price to any team just to get "something" in return.

 

If the Brewers are out of the pennant race the year before free agency, we are trading him for the best offer. That's just the way it is. Whatever the best offer is, it is going to be better than a comp pick (if there is one after the cba).

[reillymcshane]

I am going to load up Oakland on (mostly) prospects. Here's the idea:

 

A's get:

 

Frelick or Mitchell

Turang

1B - Rowdy Tellez

RHP J.T. Ginn (from Mets) - High upside are who dropped due to TJ surgery

OF Alex Ramirez (from Mets - raw 19 year old Int'l prospect

 

A's get several good prospects - but no knock your socks off guys. Plus they cut payroll. Rowdy is a throw in as he wouldn't have a spot in Milwaukee anymore.

 

Mets get:

 

- Houser (or Lauer if preferred by Mets. I think Houser has more value)

 

Mets have a lot of questions at the back of their rotation - and an aging rotation. A solid starter would fill a need.

 

Brewers get:

 

- 1B Olson

 

Brewers essentially trade one of Frelick/Mitchell (gotta give up someone), Turang (not really needed with Adames in town), and a rotation arm (Ashby and Small give us depth here) for the big bopper bat we have been asking for in Olson.

 

Now, the A's might want Houser - which would just cut out the Mets. That's fine. But I figured they'd want the prospects - thus the Mets are in this deal.

[jay87shot]

Prospects are hard to value but Kirk was a 1 WAR catcher in 160 abs, so he is likely at worst a slightly above average catecher. Hogland and Lopez are unknown, maybe switching Lopez for another pitcher is a good idea if Cleveland had MI depth. I also feel like top end relievers get more back in value because of the rarity of a consistent and dominant closer. Kimbrel got Madrigel and a decent young reliever after having 2 awful years. Add in a higher salary and with a half year less control (and 6 years older) and Hader probably has 2 times that value, at least 2 top 100 prospects and top 10 level or 2 mid level prospects. I would say the Brewers would need to give up more than Hader and a throw in for Ramirez because it is easy to forget, he has been in the top 5 for MVP 4 of 5 years and is only 29 still.

 

Also, I listen to a lot of Chicago sports radio (only sports channel for section of my commute) and at least the host on the Score view Garcia as a utility guy. So trading Wong for Kimbrel makes a little sense, only if you get Ramirez 1st (I wouldn't do that otherwise).

 

New Deal(s)

We get Olsen, Phillies Get Hader, Miguel Sanchez A's get Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Mid-level, phillies prosect, Rowdy Tellez (A's trade Chapman somewhere else)

Olsen upgrades 1B, Phillies improve there pen and A's get 3 staring infielders with some upside.

 

We get Madison Baumgartner (like 10 million a year for 3 years) and Seth Beer (my favorite underrated prospect) for Eric Lauer and Keston Huira

This one is mostly predicated on my love for Seth Beer and an attempt to sell high on Lauer. Also some belief that MadBum isn't done for, he is only 32 and can be super effective if he can leave that dumpster fire in the desert and the Brewers pitching staff can help get his velo up a few mph. If the D-backs eat about 1/2 of his contract it would become a moveable contract if he isn't great.

 

Hader and Antione Kelly to LA Dodgers for Miguel Vargas, Bobby Miller, and Alex Vesia

I would hater Hader to LA, however the are lots of options matches that make a Hader to LA make sense. We could easily get 3 solid pieces for Hader if the Dodgers want him. Vargas has high end power, Miller top of the rotation stuff, and Vesia could be a 7th or 8th inning bullpen piece.

 

More to come next week, Go Badgers and Pack this weekend

[TURBO]

No way I come off my asking price to any team just to get "something" in return.

 

If the Brewers are out of the pennant race the year before free agency, we are trading him for the best offer. That's just the way it is. Whatever the best offer is, it is going to be better than a comp pick (if there is one after the cba).

 

I wasn't assuming we'd be out of the playoff hunt, so I didn't take that into consideration. Obviously, in that case, yes, we trade him for the best offer we can land.

[wntrtxn21]

I am going to load up Oakland on (mostly) prospects. Here's the idea:

 

A's get:

 

Frelick or Mitchell

Turang

1B - Rowdy Tellez

RHP J.T. Ginn (from Mets) - High upside are who dropped due to TJ surgery

OF Alex Ramirez (from Mets - raw 19 year old Int'l prospect

 

A's get several good prospects - but no knock your socks off guys. Plus they cut payroll. Rowdy is a throw in as he wouldn't have a spot in Milwaukee anymore.

 

Mets get:

 

- Houser (or Lauer if preferred by Mets. I think Houser has more value)

 

Mets have a lot of questions at the back of their rotation - and an aging rotation. A solid starter would fill a need.

 

Brewers get:

 

- 1B Olson

 

Brewers essentially trade one of Frelick/Mitchell (gotta give up someone), Turang (not really needed with Adames in town), and a rotation arm (Ashby and Small give us depth here) for the big bopper bat we have been asking for in Olson.

 

Now, the A's might want Houser - which would just cut out the Mets. That's fine. But I figured they'd want the prospects - thus the Mets are in this deal.

 

I think you may really be on to something except I don't think the A's would accept Turang. He's a glove first SS and his bat doesn't play out anywhere else. The A's have their top prospect SS Nick Allen already at AAA. Maybe the Brewers keep Turang and offer Quero instead.

Brewers get: Olson

Mets get: Houser

A's get: Ginn-Ramirez-Frelick-Tellez-Quero

[wntrtxn21]

Prospects are hard to value but Kirk was a 1 WAR catcher in 160 abs, so he is likely at worst a slightly above average catecher. Hogland and Lopez are unknown, maybe switching Lopez for another pitcher is a good idea if Cleveland had MI depth. I also feel like top end relievers get more back in value because of the rarity of a consistent and dominant closer. Kimbrel got Madrigel and a decent young reliever after having 2 awful years. Add in a higher salary and with a half year less control (and 6 years older) and Hader probably has 2 times that value, at least 2 top 100 prospects and top 10 level or 2 mid level prospects. I would say the Brewers would need to give up more than Hader and a throw in for Ramirez because it is easy to forget, he has been in the top 5 for MVP 4 of 5 years and is only 29 still.

 

Also, I listen to a lot of Chicago sports radio (only sports channel for section of my commute) and at least the host on the Score view Garcia as a utility guy. So trading Wong for Kimbrel makes a little sense, only if you get Ramirez 1st (I wouldn't do that otherwise).

 

New Deal(s)

We get Olsen, Phillies Get Hader, Miguel Sanchez A's get Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Mid-level, phillies prosect, Rowdy Tellez (A's trade Chapman somewhere else)

Olsen upgrades 1B, Phillies improve there pen and A's get 3 staring infielders with some upside.

 

We get Madison Baumgartner (like 10 million a year for 3 years) and Seth Beer (my favorite underrated prospect) for Eric Lauer and Keston Huira

This one is mostly predicated on my love for Seth Beer and an attempt to sell high on Lauer. Also some belief that MadBum isn't done for, he is only 32 and can be super effective if he can leave that dumpster fire in the desert and the Brewers pitching staff can help get his velo up a few mph. If the D-backs eat about 1/2 of his contract it would become a moveable contract if he isn't great.

 

Hader and Antione Kelly to LA Dodgers for Miguel Vargas, Bobby Miller, and Alex Vesia

I would hater Hader to LA, however the are lots of options matches that make a Hader to LA make sense. We could easily get 3 solid pieces for Hader if the Dodgers want him. Vargas has high end power, Miller top of the rotation stuff, and Vesia could be a 7th or 8th inning bullpen piece.

 

More to come next week, Go Badgers and Pack this weekend

 

In your first trade I'm afraid the Brewers would have to give up a heck of a lot more than Hader and Sanchez. With what the Phillies would have to give up, Bohm/Stott/plus prospects, they aren't getting enough from the Brewers to even out the trade.

I really like Beer a lot too, but so do the D'Backs. If they had to pay off 1/2 of Mad Bum's contract, they don't have any reason to make the trade and lose Beer. If they didn't pay at least half of his contract, the Brewers would never make the deal. It's a conundrum.

[Eye Black]

I am going to load up Oakland on (mostly) prospects. Here's the idea:

 

A's get:

 

Frelick or Mitchell

Turang

1B - Rowdy Tellez

RHP J.T. Ginn (from Mets) - High upside are who dropped due to TJ surgery

OF Alex Ramirez (from Mets - raw 19 year old Int'l prospect

 

A's get several good prospects - but no knock your socks off guys. Plus they cut payroll. Rowdy is a throw in as he wouldn't have a spot in Milwaukee anymore.

 

Mets get:

 

- Houser (or Lauer if preferred by Mets. I think Houser has more value)

 

Mets have a lot of questions at the back of their rotation - and an aging rotation. A solid starter would fill a need.

 

Brewers get:

 

- 1B Olson

 

Brewers essentially trade one of Frelick/Mitchell (gotta give up someone), Turang (not really needed with Adames in town), and a rotation arm (Ashby and Small give us depth here) for the big bopper bat we have been asking for in Olson.

 

Now, the A's might want Houser - which would just cut out the Mets. That's fine. But I figured they'd want the prospects - thus the Mets are in this deal.

From the Brewers standpoint I would do that trade.

 

Here’s one I’ve been wondering about, what if the Brewers could acquire Matt Olson in a three team trade by giving up Josh Hader and a good prospect (lets say Sal Frelick). Would that be enticing to Brewers fans, or does the loss of Hader too significantly diminish the added value of Olson?

 

Looking at middle of the order bats around baseball right now it seems like the likely available options are very limited. If the DH is indeed instituted the Brewers lack of lineup thump is going to hurt even more. I hope the Brewers find a way to take a big swing in either free agency or the post lockout trade market.

[wallus]

I'd be surprised if they make a big trade. I am guessing we will run with what we have and make a big trade in season (if needed) or we will sign a guy like Schwarber.

[stalton]

I'd be surprised if they make a big trade. I am guessing we will run with what we have and make a big trade in season (if needed) or we will sign a guy like Schwarber.

 

I think another reason why this might be true is that if there's not alot of time between the new CBA and the start of baseball, most teams might be staying put

[sveumrules]

I'd be surprised if they make a big trade. I am guessing we will run with what we have and make a big trade in season (if needed) or we will sign a guy like Schwarber.

 

Pretty much where I'm at. Would prefer to keep as much pitching depth as possible since there isn't really much on the horizon to get excited about once Ashby/Small graduate.

 

Outside of Wiemer, I would trade any of our position prospects in the right deal. Turang might have a limited ceiling due to his lack of power, but his floor is pretty high as a near MLB ready SS who could probably already handle the defensive half of the equation.

 

Mitchell/Frelick are a little redundant with similar profiles as contact oriented batters with the wheels & arm for CF, but not enough pop to put them over the top as prospects.

 

If one of Garrett/Sal plus Brice as co-headliners & then one of the teenagers (Quero, Hedbert, Chourio, Garcia) or A ball guys (Valerio, Black, Gray, Zamora, Howell, Warren) thrown in for the 3rd/4th piece(s) isn't enough to get the ever elusive needle mover, hold tight & see how things look at the deadline.

 

Would love Schwarber for DH if that happens, but have a feeling he ends up landing a deal too big for the Brewers budget. My guess would be one of Soler, Conforto or a Nelson Cruz homecoming if they sign a FA bat.