Divisional Round: 49ers @ Packers - Saturday, January 22nd 7:15PM

[nodakfan17]

Earlier this week, I mentioned I thought this was a 50/50 game. Some thought that was a bit pessimistic on my part. I guess I’m just conditioned for playoff disappointment and am trying to manage my own expectations. I think the Packers are the better team, but I could easily see one or more of the following happen that sway things in favor of SF:

 

- Slow Start (3 or < points in Q1)

- Special Teams TO or Allowed TD

- Defense Allows TD right before Halftime

- Deebo Samuel Rush TD or 40-Yard Rush

- Missed FG

 

I know these things could happen to any team on any week, but I feel like they’re especially likely to happen to the 2021 Packers (aside from maybe the TD right before halftime; 2011 and 2020 still haunt me). If the Packers can avoid 4 out of 5 of these miscues, I think they win.

[OldHeidelberg]

Doesn’t sound good for Bakh to go but Mercilus and Z activated from IR which is great news.

[PeaveyFury]

Yep. Wouldn't have been activated if they weren't playing. Even if they play 12-20 snaps, that's big.

 

Turner 100% good to go as well, per MLF.

[nodakfan17]

My local news mentioned the 49ers practiced at Bay Port HS (near Green Bay) earlier today to acclimate themselves to the cold.

[PinaMadness]

My local news mentioned the 49ers practiced at Bay Port HS (near Green Bay) earlier today to acclimate themselves to the cold.

 

[sarcasm]Well there goes that advantage.[/sarcasm]

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Moore not activated. Likely means Cobb or Sullivan on returns.

[nodakfan17]

My local news mentioned the 49ers practiced at Bay Port HS (near Green Bay) earlier today to acclimate themselves to the cold.

 

[sarcasm]Well there goes that advantage.[/sarcasm]

That’s the first time I’ve heard of a visiting team practicing at a local high school prior to playing at Lambeau. Part of me wonders if that practice will do more harm than good - now the cold is in their heads for the next 24 hours. When I took the dog out this morning, it was -6. I’d like to think I’m from pretty hearty stock (having been born and raised in Green Bay), but I don’t want any part of being outside for 3 hours tomorrow night.

[OldHeidelberg]

I feel like every team who comes here for the a cold weather playoff game does something like that even if not that specific high school

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Moore not activated. Likely means Cobb or Sullivan on returns.

 

They have up to 90 minutes before gametime to activate two players off the practice squad. A DL is likely, as they only have 4 on the active roster currently. Perhaps even two if they don't activate Moore.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

My random thought is to take the ball if you win the toss.

 

Put SF in the hole early. Try to get them chasing and having to at least think about throwing the ball.

[igor67]

I'd definitely take the ball first as well in this one.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My random thought is to take the ball if you win the toss.

 

Put SF in the hole early. Try to get them chasing and having to at least think about throwing the ball.

 

I doubt they'll do that. Lafleur always tries to get a score to close out the half, then double up to start the 2nd half. I can't think of a time they won the toss and chose to receive.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think when you have Rodgers, who can manage drives to eat clock at end of the 1st half or run a 2 minute drill with next to no time to try and get some points, getting the ball to start the 2nd half is an advantage for the Packers. It winds up giving them at least one extra possession than their opponent.

 

I'd rather 49ers start with the ball with an amped crowd and fired up defense to start the game and hope they can keep the 49ers off the scoreboard. I think the cold impacts a defense more (particularly a team that isn't acclimated), so start san fran's on the sideline to let Warner's ankle cool down.

[Outlander]

The Packers were fortunate to get the bye and rest some players and now get a nice matchup against the 49ers. Really don't think they will make it a game and it will be something like 34-10.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Prediction time --

 

I was perfect straight up last weekend. Time to keep it rolling.

 

Bengals 27 -- Titans 17 Henry isn't ready to carry the rock 25 times.

 

Packers 31 -- 49ers 24 AJ Dillon's moment is here.

[homer]

Packers have the 28th ranked rush defense by DVOA

 

I think someone earlier in the thread mentioned running QBs have done a lot of damage against GB and per the list below that certainly looks like it. Is it possible to recalculate DVOA if you take away QB rushes? Or that some proprietary PFF stat?

 

Winston 6/37

Goff 4/46

Fields 6/43

Heinecke 10/95

Wilson 5/32

Fields 9/74

Huntley 13/73

[Fear The Chorizo]

wishful thinking on my part, I'm sure....but I recall the Packers put Z. Smith at a MLB position at times last season - particularly when they were looking to beef up their MLB spot against the run and were trying to keep P. Smith and Gary on the field. I think he also played some interior line or blitzed from a MLB position on passing downs, too. Wondering if we wind up seeing a similar alignment when the Packers may be in nickel. Also, the thought of rushing the 5 of Gary, P. Smith, Clark, Z.Smith, and Mercilus that has Campbell, Stokes, Douglas, Alexander, Amos, and Savage in coverage behind it on obvious passing downs gives me warm fuzzies even if it's presently a pipe dream.

[FVBrewerFan]

wishful thinking on my part, I'm sure....but I recall the Packers put Z. Smith at a MLB position at times last season - particularly when they were looking to beef up their MLB spot against the run and were trying to keep P. Smith and Gary on the field. I think he also played some interior line or blitzed from a MLB position on passing downs, too. Wondering if we wind up seeing a similar alignment when the Packers may be in nickel. Also, the thought of rushing the 5 of Gary, P. Smith, Clark, Z.Smith, and Mercilus that has Campbell, Stokes, Douglas, Alexander, Amos, and Savage in coverage behind it on obvious passing downs gives me warm fuzzies even if it's presently a pipe dream.

 

I don’t think it's a pipe dream at all. I think that's exactly what they'll do on obvious passing downs. I think they rotate 4 of the 5 guys you mentioned up front.

[PinaMadness]

Today I coincidently stumbled onto this youtube video about how Belechick completely changed up their already dominant run defense stop the Bears running game in the 1990 playoffs when he was DC for the Giants. Of course that year they went on to win the Super Bowl two weeks later. Jusr something to chew on. Skip to 6:23 to get to the meat of the video.

 

[sveumrules]

Packers have the 28th ranked rush defense by DVOA

 

I think someone earlier in the thread mentioned running QBs have done a lot of damage against GB and per the list below that certainly looks like it. Is it possible to recalculate DVOA if you take away QB rushes? Or that some proprietary PFF stat?

 

Winston 6/37

Goff 4/46

Fields 6/43

Heinecke 10/95

Wilson 5/32

Fields 9/74

Huntley 13/73

 

Not sure about DVOA, but the Packers did give up the 2nd most rushing yards to QBs this year, 455 yards in 76 attempts, about a 6 yard average.

 

Running backs picked up 1,302 yards on 304 carries, a 4.3 yard average. By pure yardage that was the 6th lowest total in the NFL.

 

It would appear the Packers overall run defense stats have been dragged down quite a bit by QBs, while they've fared much better at "stopping the run" in the traditional sense.

[HarveysWBs]

Packers have the 28th ranked rush defense by DVOA

 

I think someone earlier in the thread mentioned running QBs have done a lot of damage against GB and per the list below that certainly looks like it. Is it possible to recalculate DVOA if you take away QB rushes? Or that some proprietary PFF stat?

 

Winston 6/37

Goff 4/46

Fields 6/43

Heinecke 10/95

Wilson 5/32

Fields 9/74

Huntley 13/73

 

Not sure about DVOA, but the Packers did give up the 2nd most rushing yards to QBs this year, 455 yards in 76 attempts, about a 6 yard average.

 

Running backs picked up 1,302 yards on 304 carries, a 4.3 yard average. By pure yardage that was the 6th lowest total in the NFL.

 

It would appear the Packers overall run defense stats have been dragged down quite a bit by QBs, while they've fared much better at "stopping the run" in the traditional sense.

 

I love the breakdown here, this is some good analysis. Now I feel even better about this game, unless the Niners do something crazy like let Lance take 25+% of the snaps…

[OldHeidelberg]

I love the breakdown here, this is some good analysis. Now I feel even better about this game, unless the Niners do something crazy like let Lance take 25+% of the snaps…

 

I am actually expecting this

[tmwiese55]

Yea I always prefer to get the ball 2H for the chance at double score, especially with an elite QB.

 

Nice find on that Belichick video, I think there's a few things like that for him over the years. He's hands down the best coach ever.

 

Fairly confident in this and think they'll generally be in control most of the game. Hopefully don't have one of those games where they're ahead and then can't quite close it and next thing you know you have drama at the end. Like your Browns type game this year and a few others around that same timeframe. I'll go with 27-13 GB

[OldHeidelberg]

Packer radio pregame guys not making me feel optimistic, hate hearing homer James Jones talk about Niners having that swagger like Packers had in 2010.

[PinaMadness]

Bakh is out. Jaire active.

 

I really worry about Bakh's future. It's been over a year and he's still having problems.