Divisional Round: 49ers @ Packers - Saturday, January 22nd 7:15PM

[True Blue Brew Crew]

However, after a few days of quotes, I'm beginning to think the Packers are going to wave their magic cap wand around and keep Rodgers in town. Or at least try hard to do so.

 

That's always been what they were going to try and do. They'd be crazy not to.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't know about that. They seemed pretty content with moving on from him not too long ago. I think they are in a completely different spot this year vs. last.

 

Let's say Rodgers does stay. Love has to be dealt, no? What would he fetch? A 4th? At that point is he worth just keeping for a year as the backup QB?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't know about that. They seemed pretty content with moving on from him not too long ago. I think they are in a completely different spot this year vs. last.

 

Let's say Rodgers does stay. Love has to be dealt, no? What would he fetch? A 4th? At that point is he worth just keeping for a year as the backup QB?

 

Why would Love need to be dealt? He's still a very inexpensive backup QB. It's year 5 when the escalator would kick in. If he needs to play a big role this year, and it looks like he's the heir apparent at this time next year, they could make the decision then. Not sure when they'd need to decide to pick up that 5th year though.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Ron Robinson's Beard

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I miscounted the years he's been in the league, but there is still an idea out there (some writer floated it immediately after loss) that trading Love would bring a pick back that could be used to cheaply add a contributor to the team as they fight cap issues. Even if that contributor only played ST, that is something they could use right now.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I miscounted the years he's been in the league, but there is still an idea out there (Tom S. floated it immediately after loss) that trading Love would bring a pick back that could be used to cheaply add a contributor to the team as they fight cap issues. Even if that contributor only played ST, that is something they could use right now.

 

I think the only way that would happen is if they find a way to hitch their wagon to Rodgers for the next 3-4 seasons. He's said that he wants to play into his mid-40s in the past, but seems to be going the Favre route now of wavering on whether he wants to commit to the offseason work he'd need to do to continue his career. it would also give the appearance that the front office made a mistake by drafting Love in the first place. Of course that really isn't true, as 2019 Aaron Rodgers came pretty close to resembling the player we saw last Saturday, but for a whole season. I don't blame them for putting a contingency plan in place, even if that contingency never actually comes to fruition.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Rodgers didn't start until his 4th year, so if Rodgers comes back I think you keep Love around as the backup to potentially have him as the 2023 starter if Rodgers retires/leaves after next season.

 

With Love's 5th year option, I believe the Packers would have until early May of 2023 to decide whether or not they would exercise that escalator. Assuming Love doesn't get much of any significant playing time through year 3 (very likely if Rodgers sticks around next season), his 5th year escalator would be somewhat difficult to predict but not debilitating. I believe the rule would be his 5th year option would be the average of the 3rd-25th highest QB salaries headed into the 2023 regular season. That would be a significant jump, but one the Packers would probably be ok with making knowing that cost wouldn't come until the 2024 regular season if they view him as the heir apparent and presume Rodgers will be gone in 1-2 more seasons.

 

Love's cap hit in 2022 will be ~$3.4M, for 2023 it will be ~$4M. It's the 2024 season when his cap hit would jump to around $15M assuming the 5th year option is picked up.

 

However, if Rodgers does ink a longterm extension this offseason that makes sense for him to be in GB for at least 3-4 more seasons the Packers should just go ahead and deal Love now.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Fear The Chorizo

[OldHeidelberg]

I don't know about that. They seemed pretty content with moving on from him not too long ago. I think they are in a completely different spot this year vs. last.

 

Let's say Rodgers does stay. Love has to be dealt, no? What would he fetch? A 4th? At that point is he worth just keeping for a year as the backup QB?

 

They had someone on sports radio talking about this last week, it may have been Andrew Brandt, who said the Packers value their 1st round picks and if they believe Love can be the future they will move on from Rodgers now. If the Packers are working to keep Rodgers that may tell us all we need to know about Love and I would say a 4th rounder may be it.

[MrTPlush]

You could probably just keep Love if you wanted, I don't think Rodgers would care. Though I think you are better off taking the 4th rounder and then getting some random QB off the street to be the back-up.

[brewcrewdue80]

My guess is they have no intention of targeting a QB anyway. They have two years invested in Love and would like to at least see what they've got.

 

Likely that they'll use any draft capital from a Rodgers deal to continue to build a defensive minded team around Gary and Alexander and Clark, and probably look to add a weapon or two offensively for Love. Adams is a goner. 2022 is a very deep WR class, which is good because we are going to be in dire need. Two WRs added in the first two days of the draft would not shock me.

 

This would be rich if they drafted 2 WRs for Love in 1st 2days. Would fit the narrative of 2020s draft of Love and Dillon. Moving on beyond Rodgers rather than drafting to help him immediately.

 

There was a comment on Amari Rodgers lack of use. Well he fumbled often when given the chance. Not much on kick or punt returns left the idea he should have the ball in his hands. That Cobb mentorship did not give Rodgers the Cobb skills on the field.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

Plus this offense has never had issues moving the ball when Adams is out due to injury. It can be argued that they are actually more efficient because the coaching staff draws up a better scheme and Rodgers actually spreads the ball around more. There have been games where both MVS and Lazard have looked like #1-type WRs.

 

I mean, yeah, Justin Jefferson would look great in green and gold. Hell, Odell Beckham would have been a pretty interesting addition this season. But when Rodgers is in peril, throughout his career, he's looked for his #1 guy. Before Adams it was Nelson. It's gotten worse as he's gotten older, though. 2010 Rodgers was a master at spreading the ball around. This current version of him, for all the good that he does, isn't that.[/quote]

 

2010 Rodgers had Greg Jennings #1. Donald Driver #2 a combo James Jones and Jordy Nelson #3s/4s. Jermichel Finley TE. Ryan Grant RB. That is a loaded group to "spread it around" Had they drafted a WR in 2020 like a Jordy Nelson to be your next #1-2 WR prior to 2010 we're probably playing still. Instead Gute and have to imagine MLF drafted Sternberger and Deguara.(Sternberger was an exciting pick that initial injury just ended him before he could begin)

 

I mean if you look at draft position of 2010s options vs 2021...

2nd, Vet, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd

2nd, Vet, Udfa, 5th/6th. UdFA\3rd

 

You could maybe also blame some of the ST struggles because you didn't draft a top WR early and drafting your #2 futures late if at all meant not using them to do returns. Leaving 7th or UDFAs to return kicks leads to being the worst ST in football.

[brewcrewdue80]

Getting Tonyan back will certainly help. They probably would have won the game with a good TE. They'll certainly have to invest in a replacement for Adams, whether through free agency or draft, but I agree it's not completely dire there. DeGuara certainly should be expected to improve.

 

For the most part, this was a deep, talented team surrounding Rodgers. Obviously they'll miss Adams, but there's still talent there.

 

Definitely missed Tonyan this season. Really had no up the seam TE mismatch for Rodgers to expose the middle of the field and keep those double&triple team Adams defense more honest. Deguara has shown he's a joke at that. A RB-FB hybrid isn't the answer for a #1 TE.

Also goes to show you how important Tonyan was to the offense. When you're #1 in red zone TDs and lose 11TDs from the TE position mid year. You are dropping near bottom of the league when nobody comparable is your backup. No threat from TE position meant that extra defender on a WR or to spy a RB. MLF and that hybrid RB-FB he plays as a TE-FB is going to be a major downfall to his offensive scheme if he continues to insist that guy has a big role running it.