MLB Trade Rumors article on rotation depth and trade piece

[DR28]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/brewers-enviable-rotation-depth-could-open-trade-possibilities-for-front-office.html

 

Thoughts??

[brewmann04]

Well it would not shock me

[nate82]

Houser would probably be the one to be traded but I am just not sure to where. There are a few teams that I could think of where it makes sense for the teams trading for Houser but not for the Brewers.

[TURBO]

It would be really nice to go into our season with all 6 of our starters since we know someone will get injured. That and we could possibly use a 6 man rotation anyway...

 

That being said, if forced to trade one for a bat, I'm starting to think Lauer might be the guy I'd trade, not Houser.

 

Will be interesting to see what happens.

[StearnsFTW]

Houser for Andrew Vaughn?

 

Just spitballing.

 

Assuming there's a DH, which I think there will be, Vaughn would be a nice bat (potentially) to have.

 

Too much for Houser? Too little? I really don't know, but that was something that occurred to me as I read that article.

 

Edit: According to that site that MrAllen linked, the Brewers would have to add a prospect like Frelick to get this done, in terms of value. I'd be out at that point.

Edited January 5, 2022 by StearnsFTW

[MrTPlush]

It would be really nice to go into our season with all 6 of our starters since we know someone will get injured. That and we could possibly use a 6 man rotation anyway...

 

That being said, if forced to trade one for a bat, I'm starting to think Lauer might be the guy I'd trade, not Houser.

 

Will be interesting to see what happens.

 

Seems like one of those things that makes a ton of sense on paper, but probably never materializes.

 

I am guessing the Brewers would greatly prefer and maybe even require proven MLB talent in return...or at the very least MLB ready with maybe their toes dipped like Urias was. That always makes a trade 10x harder to figure out.

[brewerfan82]

Just to add some fodder to this thread These could provide some loose starting points for possible trade targets involving Lauer or Houser:

 

- Lauer Trades: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/?team_filter=461&s_type=player&s=8676&s_term=Eric%20Lauer&filter=two_team

- Houser Trades: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/?team_filter=461&s_type=player&s=8506&s_term=Adrian%20Houser&filter=two_team

 

There are some interesting ones involving previously discussed players like Matt Olson, Luke Voit, and Ketel Marte, but also some new names to consider like Jo Adell, Bobby Dalbec, and Ryan McMahon. They show a straight up trade of Houser for Voit and Gallo as being pretty equal, that'd be possibly interesting if we have the DH (maybe move Yeli to DH, throw Gallo in the OF, and Voit at 1B).

[monty57]

I think it makes a ton of sense to trade one of the starters this offseason. First, Ashby's ready to start and I don't want to waste a year of his service time throwing out of the pen waiting for someone to get hurt. Second, all of our starters are set to hit free agency around the same time. I'd like to break that up a bit. Get Ashby in the rotation to start this season, while working in Small. Next year, if Small seems ready, then we can trade someone else and put Small in the rotation.

 

Getting new guys in incrementally seems preferable to either riding the guys to free agency and losing the entire staff or trying to trade them all off at once when they're closer to free agency. Plus, any of the starters could net a good haul in trade. If something like MrAllen's Houser for Voit and Gallo is possible, I think we'd be a much better team with Ashby as our #5 and Voit and Gallo in the lineup than we are with our current roster.

 

Edit: After looking at the contracts, I don't think the aforementioned trade would be what Stearns is looking for, as Gallo is a FA after this season, and Voit has two years. It might not be a bad trade, and it would probably make us better this year, but I'd guess that Stearns would look more for a young, pre-arby guy coming back. It is fun to look at the BTV trade scenarios and see people guessing that we'd have to give up Hader to offset Bradley's bad contract.

[nate82]

The trade that makes the most sense is with the Twins which would be Houser for Kepler.

[wntrtxn21]

I think it makes a ton of sense to trade one of the starters this offseason. First, Ashby's ready to start and I don't want to waste a year of his service time throwing out of the pen waiting for someone to get hurt. Second, all of our starters are set to hit free agency around the same time. I'd like to break that up a bit. Get Ashby in the rotation to start this season, while working in Small. Next year, if Small seems ready, then we can trade someone else and put Small in the rotation.

 

Getting new guys in incrementally seems preferable to either riding the guys to free agency and losing the entire staff or trying to trade them all off at once when they're closer to free agency. Plus, any of the starters could net a good haul in trade. If something like MrAllen's Houser for Voit and Gallo is possible, I think we'd be a much better team with Ashby as our #5 and Voit and Gallo in the lineup than we are with our current roster.

 

Edit: After looking at the contracts, I don't think the aforementioned trade would be what Stearns is looking for, as Gallo is a FA after this season, and Voit has two years. It might not be a bad trade, and it would probably make us better this year, but I'd guess that Stearns would look more for a young, pre-arby guy coming back. It is fun to look at the BTV trade scenarios and see people guessing that we'd have to give up Hader to offset Bradley's bad contract.

 

I cannot imagine Stearns wants anything to do with Gallo or Dalbec and their monstrous whiff numbers. Gallo is a big HR guy, but he has less RBIs than Urias in more ABs. Plus he is a rental at approx. $8+M. Voit only if there is a DH. If they are going to trade for a rental why not Haniger? How about longer term guys like Mountcastle from the O's or as previously mentioned, McMahon from the Rockies?

[Joseph Zarr]

Well this is the most obvious bit of speculation any prognosticator of analyst can make: Trade from depth to augment weakness. The Brewers have the best Starting pitching depth in all of baseball. Do you trade from that depth? Sure, you can. Do they need to? I am unsure they need to and I remain unsure it is a good idea. That depth proved invaluable. It is even more invaluable in the era of COVID and professional sports. Not an easy choice to make. Personally, I would hold on to the depth and the strength and make smaller improvements that are less costly and assess the Team leading up to the Trade deadline.

[brewerfan82]

Yeah it's definitely not easy to get a trade that hits all the marks.

 

- Gallo and Haniger are one year guys (however, Voit's actually got 3 years of control left)

- Not sure McMahon and Mountcastle are on teams that would be looking to add major league pitching right now

- Kepler and Adell would be interesting possibilities, but I'm not sure how much I want another outfielder until I know for sure the DH is in play

 

I would add, I'm sure we'd be able to regain some of the depth lost with the annual Brett Anderson signing (or similar vet). Although I'd probably prefer some AAA depth that's not blocking Ashby.

 

That said, we're definitely in a position to hold out for a deal that makes sense, so no need to pull the trigger unless someone is overvaluing one guy or the other. Muchacho's take is probably the most prudent approach if we're not overwhelmed with any offers.

[JosephC]

My long-term plan would be to trade one of Burnes/Woodruff after this season. Because of that, I'd be very hesitant to move any of the current starters because they'd be needed for 2023. Someone would have to overpay for Houser or Lauer to pry them away...and it would pretty much have to include immediate lineup help as part of the deal.

[Soupbone]

Are the Brewers going to go with 6 starters? If so I doubt that anyone is traded. If the Brewers are "going for it" I would think that the big 3 pitch on a very regular basis. Especially if the plan is to trade them before they become free agents. That said it seems like DS manages to surprise us every year. Keep the starters but find that bat that makes a difference.

[sveumrules]

How about longer term guys like Mountcastle from the O's or as previously mentioned, McMahon from the Rockies?

 

Mountcastle has 1.7 WAR in a little over one full season (179 G | 726 PAs) of playing time. His 117 OPS+ shakes out to +14 batting runs, but once you factor in that he is a slow (-3 BSR), poor fielding (-8 FLD), 1B/LF/DH only (-11 POS), he gives back all those batting runs and then some.

 

McMahon has an 88 OPS+ over 1,554 career PAs, which shakes out to -26 batting runs. At least his glove (+37 FLD) and playing mostly 3B/2B (+6 POS) cover for it, but if we're dealing from our pitching depth to bolster the offense he doesn't really fit the bill.

[umphrey]

I think the most logical trade is Ashby for an impact bat. It doesn’t subtract from the MLB roster that much and it could get a better player than Houser/Lauer, who would only get a minor improvement over Tellez, for example.

[brewerfan82]

More fodder... Steamer projections for the Brewers' projected starters:

 

 

I'd be very hesitant to move Ashby.

[tmwiese55]

Agree on Ashby being one to hold back. Lauer/Houser would be the targets to me as they're closer to arbitration/FA while also not being Ace level like Burnes/Wood. I'm not sure a deal is out there but if one comes up trading one of those solid starter that gets back a clear contributor bat with at least 2-3 years of control left I think you have to strongly consider. That said, you don't have to force it either, but the offense needs a boost

[TURBO]

Agree on Ashby being one to hold back. Lauer/Houser would be the targets to me as they're closer to arbitration/FA while also not being Ace level like Burnes/Wood. I'm not sure a deal is out there but if one comes up trading one of those solid starter that gets back a clear contributor bat with at least 2-3 years of control left I think you have to strongly consider. That said, you don't have to force it either, but the offense needs a boost

 

 

Yes, if trading Lauer or Houser, you'd want to get a player back like you mentioned, and one with the same number of control years left or more, but I'd settle for equal years remaining.

[nate82]

I think the most logical trade is Ashby for an impact bat. It doesn’t subtract from the MLB roster that much and it could get a better player than Houser/Lauer, who would only get a minor improvement over Tellez, for example.

 

I think you are undervaluing the current trade market for starting pitchers. There are not many available and even less in FA. Starting pitchers are at a premium right now in the trade market which makes the Reds move even more confusing as they could have gotten a decent piece or two for Miley in this trade market.

 

I think the Brewers could get someone like Keplar for Houser. Lauer has a lower value and wouldn't be able to get Keplar on his own. He would be closer to a Tellez type of a trade.

[umphrey]

Giving up a better player will get us a better player. Ashby could headline a Matt Olson package.

[monty57]

Giving up a better player will get us a better player. Ashby could headline a Matt Olson package.

 

Really just depends on the longer-term strategy. If the strategy is to "go all in" and blow things up in a couple of seasons, then yes, you trade Ashby for a guy who's already in his arby years. If the strategy is to try to maintain success without having to go into a big rebuild (which Attanasio and Stearns have said is their goal), then you hold onto Ashby and your top prospects. In that case, "giving up a better player" would probably mean trading Woodruff for a monster haul, but I think we're probably a year away from that happening.

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, I wouldn't trade Ashby unless I was completely bowled over.

 

In terms of Houser, if guys like Max Kepler are the best we can do, I'd just keep him. And I realize that may well be the market.

[TURBO]

Yeah, I wouldn't trade Ashby unless I was completely bowled over.

 

In terms of Houser, if guys like Max Kepler are the best we can do, I'd just keep him. And I realize that may well be the market.

 

 

Agreed on both points.

[Roderick]

I think the most logical trade is Ashby for an impact bat. It doesn’t subtract from the MLB roster that much and it could get a better player than Houser/Lauer, who would only get a minor improvement over Tellez, for example.

 

I think you are undervaluing the current trade market for starting pitchers. There are not many available and even less in FA. Starting pitchers are at a premium right now in the trade market which makes the Reds move even more confusing as they could have gotten a decent piece or two for Miley in this trade market.

 

I think the Brewers could get someone like Keplar for Houser. Lauer has a lower value and wouldn't be able to get Keplar on his own. He would be closer to a Tellez type of a trade.

 

I don't care what the trade simulator said for Lauer and Houser, to me they both have great value to Brewers and should be treated accordingly when asking for trade prices. Not any of this Tellez equivalent for Lauer.

 

I'm not against using them in a package to get a premium player. Run a package one of them, Mitchell, Turang up the flag pole and see who salutes.