Jeff McNeil to be traded?

[JosephC]

I might consider a Houser for Mcneil trade but would probably prefer to keep the pitching depth.

 

I'd try to save pitching for a possible Matt Olson deal. Would look to move prospects in a McNeil deal. However, if the Mets were willing to overpay for Hader and include McNeil (plus a whole lot more) in the return package, I would listen to that. Mets also could be that third wheel in an Olson-Hader deal where the Mets get Hader, the Brewers get Olson and McNeil and the A's get a bunch of prospects from the Brewers and the Mets.

[clancyphile]

What’s the point in giving up a valuable pitcher for McNeil? To trade Wong? Bench Urias? Play him as a below average 1B or DH?

 

Ask me again in June when we are looking for the next Escobar trade deadline deal.

 

McNeil has a positive DRS at 2B, 3B, LF, RF.

 

It's possible he could turn out to be the Brewer's best option in RF. How much time will Yelich miss in LF, especially now that he's on the big contract and just may have less motivation to play with minor injuries? I'm more than happy to go into 2022 with Urias as the everyday 3B, but what if he regresses?

 

If I'm to play Brewer GM, and the BaseballTradeValue site's 15.1 million in surplus value estimate is truly what MLB front offices think of him....and the Mets really want to deal him....there would be a 100% chance that he would be in a Brewer uniform next year. I'd probably have his surplus value at 3x that amount. He had a crappy .679 OPS last year and still, on average, was a 1.0 bWAR/fWAR player. Before that season he had posted a .319/.383/.501/.884 slash line in over 1000 plate appearances. He was a .900+ OPS guy in AAA and AA. A very good history of hitting and getting on-base.

 

If he splits the middle between what he was in 2018-2020 versus 2021...he is a .285/.350/.430/.780 hitter that bring plus DRS to four positions and the best comparable to that slash line in 2021 was Alex Verdugo who hit .289/.351/.426 for the Red Sox and graded as an average outfielder (good in left and right, poor in centerfield). Verdugo's WARs as follows: bWAR = 2.2, fWAR= 2.0. Verdugo's left field numbers are way better than McNeil's but McNeil's numbers are slightly better as a right fielder. Add in that McNeil can bring plus defense at 2B and 3B and I'd probably calculates out to a 2.3-2.5 WAR player if he hits at the .285/.350/.430/.780 level.

 

At a price of 15 million in surplus value, IMO he's a great guy to take a chance on. With a year one arbitration estimate of 2.8 million, he's on a track that would probably earn him about 13 million over the next 3 years. If he's worth 6 WAR total over those three seasons, trading 15 million in surplus value away would be a very good move for the Brewers.

 

McNeil's history is such that I'd want him over Tellez at first, either as a direct replacement, or as an indirect replacement (Yelich to 1B, McNeil in left).

 

At worst, McNeil is a far more productive and consistent version of Jace Peterson.

 

Plus, I'll hit on the park factors over the years - Citi Field is LESS hitter-friendly than Marlins Park. We saw Yelich make a huge improvement, and it's a good bet McNeil would also do better playing half the time at American Family Field.

[JosephC]

Last year McNeil was .294/.356/.444/.800 at home but a terrible .211/.285/.281/.567 on the road. Career wise, he's .387 OBP/.874 OPS at home and .343 OBP/.778 OPS on the road. Those include the dramatic spilt of 2021, exclude those numbers and the 2018-2020 home/road numbers would be much more similar.

 

I really wish I could find a BABIP number at home versus the road for 2021 to see if that could be a contributor to what looks like a fairly fluky number when comparing to the rest of the historical stats. Worth noting that from 2018-2020 McNeil's BABIP numbers were .359 -.337 - .335 but then in 2021 it dipped to .280.

 

He's a career .476 OPS in Miller Park but that is a grand total of 21 plate appearances, so there probably isn't too much that can be gained from that. But it also can't be completely attributed to Brewer pitching either, as he has a .635 OPS against Milwaukee, so he must be hitting Brewer pitching alright in New York. But with as few plate appearances that there is, there is always a chance he faced Woodruff and Burnes in Milwaukee but faced other Brewer pitchers in New York. All of this can be looked up but there are so few plate appearances involved that I don't even think it's worth it.

 

The 2021 road OPS really dragged down the 2021 totals and I would still see that as being somewhat fluky. I still think he'd be a bargain at 15 million in surplus value and would like to see the Brewers add him at that price.

[Roderick]

https://theathletic.com/3075009/2022/01/18/mlb-trade-scenarios-jim-bowden-evaluates-your-proposals-for-josh-hader-matt-chapman-ketel-marte-and-more/

 

Someone proposed this on a Jim Bowden trade article.

 

Brewers trade LHP Josh Hader to Mets for INF/OF Jeff McNeil, OF/1B Dominic Smith and RHP J.T. Ginn — Douglas H.

 

.... you’ve made me an offer I can’t refuse (as the Brewers). I think Smith, if given a chance to play first base every day, would hit .300 with 20 home run power and a .350 on-base percentage. McNeil has been a .300 hitter in three of his four big-league seasons, and Ginn projects as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. I think this trade is too good for the Brewers to pass up. I’m making it. I’m making it from the Mets’ perspective, too, and think it would be a game-changer for them. Interesting idea, Douglas.

[umphrey]

Spare parts traded for the best RP in baseball? No thanks. Smith and McNeil stunk last year, especially Smith who played in 145 games last year. I would be happy to buy low on Smith but Hader is crazy far away from a buy low piece.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Smith played almost full time last year and hit .240 with a .668 OPS. He's got over 1100 PA's now, and is a .750-ish OPS guy. Yeah yeah yeah, "CITI Field"....... He *might* blossom, but I'm not trading Josh Hader for a guy who's had 1100 at bats at the big league level and hasn't put up 1.0 WAR yet, a 30 year old utility guy, and a middle of the order starter (we have a couple of those....Houser and Lauer)

[MNBrew]

Smith played almost full time last year and hit .240 with a .668 OPS. He's got over 1100 PA's now, and is a .750-ish OPS guy. Yeah yeah yeah, "CITI Field"....... He *might* blossom, but I'm not trading Josh Hader for a guy who's had 1100 at bats at the big league level and hasn't put up 1.0 WAR yet, a 30 year old utility guy, and a middle of the order starter (we have a couple of those....Houser and Lauer)

EXACTLY! Jim Bowden is an idiot. On one hand, he's experienced & connected. On the other, his takes ALWAYS favor moves that are biased toward big markets & trendy frontrunners. So in his mind, put a little spit-shine on the Mets' names who either were promising prospects or were previously good -- conveniently ignoring their faults -- and why wouldn't the Brewers agree to give up the best closer in baseball?

 

Besides his track record as an MLB GM, takes like this reinforce why he hasn't been a candidate for a GM job since Washington fired him.

[mlloyd10]

Any trade with the Mets starts with Baty. If they say no, You move on.

[mattyo]

Hader is now in year 3(?) of being one of if not the best RP in baseball and we still see ridiculous lowball trade proposals for him from national pundits. I can't recall any other player get nearly the treatment he does.

[monty57]

Hader is now in year 3(?) of being one of if not the best RP in baseball and we still see ridiculous lowball trade proposals for him from national pundits. I can't recall any other player get nearly the treatment he does.

 

Relief pitchers/closers just don't have as much trade value as other positions, especially in the offseason. That's probably the main reason Hader hasn't been traded yet when his name's been floated around for a couple of seasons.

 

Right now, he may be more valuable to the Brewers than he is in the trade market. As his team control shortens and his salary increases, that gap gets a little smaller so I think he'll be traded before he becomes a free agent, but I think some people will be underwhelmed with the final return.

 

I look at it as the net sum of what we get in return, and what we do with the money saved. We're probably not getting a young, All-Star position player for him, but if we could get (for instance) a starting 1B with 5-6 years of team control, and use the remaining money to shore up other positions, we could be in a better position than we would be by holding Hader to free agency.

 

As to the topic of the thread, McNeil was seen as a nearly untouchable player not that long ago. He had a bad year in 2021, but I don't think he's as bad as some here make him out to be. If the price is right, he could be a good addition with a lot of upside and the ability to play multiple positions.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Hader is now in year 3(?) of being one of if not the best RP in baseball and we still see ridiculous lowball trade proposals for him from national pundits. I can't recall any other player get nearly the treatment he does.

 

Relief pitchers/closers just don't have as much trade value as other positions, especially in the offseason. That's probably the main reason Hader hasn't been traded yet when his name's been floated around for a couple of seasons.

 

Right now, he may be more valuable to the Brewers than he is in the trade market.

 

I think the bolded part is what I would key on. With what we have for starters, I'm loathe to give up (as others have pointed out) the best closer in the game for any package that doesn't include at least one bona fide star or AAA prospect. If we're going to compete again in '22, having a lockdown closer is going to be key if we're playing close games.

[JosephC]

The Mets look like a strong third wheel candidate in a Brewers/As Matt Olson deal. There is a good chance that Oakland would value Smith higher than Tellez or a role-player prospect. Smith's WAR has been negatively impacted because he is a horrible outfielder. His defensive numbers at first base are merely below average, and he is a more valuable player if he can go to a team where first base is open for him. Smith did slash .299/.366/.571/.937 in 396 plate appearances spread over 2020-2021, so it's not like he's never hit at the MLB level before. And if the Brewers acquired Ginn and took Ashby off the board, then there is pretty much no question that Ginn would be the top pitching prospect they would have to trade and is a guy that would have pretty decent trade value.

 

Milwaukee gets:

1B - Matt Olson (from Oakland)

3B - Jeff McNeil (from Mets)

RHP - Lou Trivino (from Oakland)

 

Mets get:

LHP - Josh Hader (from Milwaukee)

 

Oakland gets:

1B - Dominic Smith (from Mets)

OF - Sal Frelick (from Milwaukee)

RHP - J.T. Ginn (from Mets)

LHP - Antoine Kelly (from Milwaukee)

OF - Jackson Chourio (from Milwaukee)

3B - Jaylen Palmer (from Mets)

[monty57]

The Mets look like a strong third wheel candidate in a Brewers/As Matt Olson deal. There is a good chance that Oakland would value Smith higher than Tellez or a role-player prospect. Smith's WAR has been negatively impacted because he is a horrible outfielder. His defensive numbers at first base are merely below average, and he is a more valuable player if he can go to a team where first base is open for him. Smith did slash .299/.366/.571/.937 in 396 plate appearances spread over 2020-2021, so it's not like he's never hit at the MLB level before. And if the Brewers acquired Ginn and took Ashby off the board, then there is pretty much no question that Ginn would be the top pitching prospect they would have to trade and is a guy that would have pretty decent trade value.

 

Milwaukee gets:

1B - Matt Olson (from Oakland)

3B - Jeff McNeil (from Mets)

RHP - Lou Trivino (from Oakland)

 

Mets get:

LHP - Josh Hader (from Milwaukee)

 

Oakland gets:

1B - Dominic Smith (from Mets)

OF - Sal Frelick (from Milwaukee)

RHP - J.T. Ginn (from Mets)

LHP - Antoine Kelly (from Milwaukee)

OF - Jackson Chourio (from Milwaukee)

3B - Jaylen Palmer (from Mets)

 

I'd like this trade. I have no idea how the A's would value the prospect return, but that isn't much more from the Mets than the aforementioned proposal for Hader, and the Brewers would be adding a lot to their offense without completely mortgaging the future.

[nate82]

The Mets look like a strong third wheel candidate in a Brewers/As Matt Olson deal. There is a good chance that Oakland would value Smith higher than Tellez or a role-player prospect.

 

The A's normally don't trade for guys who are in arbitration when they are looking to shred payroll. So Tellez makes zero sense along with Dominic Smith so I see the A's rejecting this trade. Yes the A's would have to replace Olson with someone but that someone would be someone making the league minimum and not someone in their 1st or 2nd year of arbitration. So someone is either adding Piscotty or Andrus to their team if the A's are taking on Smith or Tellez. I just do not see the A's taking on someone who is already in arbitration.

 

I think a Yankees, Brewers and A's trade makes more sense.

 

Brewers get:

Gallo

Voit

 

Yankees get:

Olson

Houser

 

A's get:

Dominguez

Peraza

[StearnsFTW]

I would love Nate's last idea. I looked at that and thought it was way too good for us, but it really does seem pretty fair all around.

 

Well done.

[wntrtxn21]

The Mets look like a strong third wheel candidate in a Brewers/As Matt Olson deal. There is a good chance that Oakland would value Smith higher than Tellez or a role-player prospect.

 

The A's normally don't trade for guys who are in arbitration when they are looking to shred payroll. So Tellez makes zero sense along with Dominic Smith so I see the A's rejecting this trade. Yes the A's would have to replace Olson with someone but that someone would be someone making the league minimum and not someone in their 1st or 2nd year of arbitration. So someone is either adding Piscotty or Andrus to their team if the A's are taking on Smith or Tellez. I just do not see the A's taking on someone who is already in arbitration.

 

I think a Yankees, Brewers and A's trade makes more sense.

 

Brewers get:

Gallo

Voit

 

Yankees get:

Olson

Houser

 

A's get:

Dominguez

Peraza

 

I don't understand your reasoning behind the Brewers giving up a very good SP for Gallo/Voit. Voit would be a platoon player making around $6M already in arby. Gallo is a rental who hit a whopping .199 with only 77 RBIs. He struck out at a nearly 40% rate last year. On a team that is always one of the worst whiff teams in all baseball, they don't need another monstrous K guy. If the Brewers are willing to give up Houser, I'd rather see him go in a 3-way trade where the Brewers get Olson or to the Angels for Walsh.

Brewers send Houser/Tellez/Zamora to the Angels for Walsh

OR

Brewers: Olson

A's: Peraza/Dominguez

Yankees: Houser/Kelly/Frelick/Zamora

[nate82]

 

I don't understand your reasoning behind the Brewers giving up a very good SP for Gallo/Voit. Voit would be a platoon player making around $6M already in arby. Gallo is a rental who hit a whopping .199 with only 77 RBIs. He struck out at a nearly 40% rate last year. On a team that is always one of the worst whiff teams in all baseball, they don't need another monstrous K guy. If the Brewers are willing to give up Houser, I'd rather see him go in a 3-way trade where the Brewers get Olson or to the Angels for Walsh.

Brewers send Houser/Tellez/Zamora to the Angels for Walsh

OR

Brewers: Olson

A's: Peraza/Dominguez

Yankees: Houser/Kelly/Frelick/Zamora

 

Because the Brewers need a bat that has some power in it especially in the #4 spot in the lineup. Houser is also a good #4 or #3 pitcher but his value is only so high because of the high demand for pitching and the limited supply.

 

Even with the low average Gallo would have been the 2nd or 3rd best offensive player on the Brewers. Voit is not a platoon player as he doesn't really have an extreme split against LHP or RHP.

 

I don't see the Angels giving up Walsh for anyone unless that someone is Burnes or Woodruff. Your final trade makes no sense for the Yankees. None of the players they are getting back are worth what they gave up to the A's.

[monty57]

Olson is going to be really expensive. If we trade for Olson, it probably means we're going "all in" for the next couple of years and then suffering through an extended period of really bad Brewer baseball.

 

I understand the desire to acquire someone like that... he's really good. But I'd rather hold onto our top prospects and look at acquiring some guys who aren't quite as good, but who will not "gut the farm" to acquire.

 

Houser / Lauer are somewhat expendable because of Ashby, and we could get a decent return if we decide to trade one of them. Hader has been "on the market" for a while, and I don't see us holding him to free agency and losing him for nothing. He could get a decent return in trade and save us some money to upgrade elsewhere.

 

We will likely make some moves to upgrade the offense, I just don't see us getting a superstar.

[sveumrules]

Gallo is a rental who hit a whopping .199 with only 77 RBIs. He struck out at a nearly 40% rate last year.

 

Gallo had a 34.6% K rate in 2021. If that is nearly 40% it's nearly-er 30%.

 

He also had a .351 OBP & .458 SLG which made his overall contribution in the batter's box about 21% better than league average by OPS+, even with the low average & high strikeouts.

 

Throw in +2 runs on the bases & +15 runs in the field & BRef had him down for 4.7 WAR in 2021.

[wntrtxn21]

 

I don't understand your reasoning behind the Brewers giving up a very good SP for Gallo/Voit. Voit would be a platoon player making around $6M already in arby. Gallo is a rental who hit a whopping .199 with only 77 RBIs. He struck out at a nearly 40% rate last year. On a team that is always one of the worst whiff teams in all baseball, they don't need another monstrous K guy. If the Brewers are willing to give up Houser, I'd rather see him go in a 3-way trade where the Brewers get Olson or to the Angels for Walsh.

Brewers send Houser/Tellez/Zamora to the Angels for Walsh

OR

Brewers: Olson

A's: Peraza/Dominguez

Yankees: Houser/Kelly/Frelick/Zamora

 

Because the Brewers need a bat that has some power in it especially in the #4 spot in the lineup. Houser is also a good #4 or #3 pitcher but his value is only so high because of the high demand for pitching and the limited supply.

 

Even with the low average Gallo would have been the 2nd or 3rd best offensive player on the Brewers. Voit is not a platoon player as he doesn't really have an extreme split against LHP or RHP.

 

I don't see the Angels giving up Walsh for anyone unless that someone is Burnes or Woodruff. Your final trade makes no sense for the Yankees. None of the players they are getting back are worth what they gave up to the A's.

 

Remember Gallo is a rental and whiffs almst 4 of every 10 PAs. He isn't what the Crew would want as a DH. The Brewers got Renfroe for RF and the #4 spot. He had 31 HRs, hit .256, and struckout at a 22% rate. There is a reason the Yankees, who are desperately seeking a 1B, are trying hard to peddle Voit. I have him as a platoon player because he is 31, is a well below avg. fielder, and has a history of injuries. I think the Brewers like Tellez a lot. Tellez hit .285 in his short stint with Milwaukee and was very good with the glove. I think you are way over estimating Walsh's value. The best s.v. I could find on Walsh was 32. His average s.v. is around 25-26. The worst s.v. I found on Woodruff was 91. His average s.v. is 110. No way Walsh is worth Woodruff. You're probably right about my Yankee trade, depending on how much the Yanks value SP. My thinking was Dominguez's star is fading and Peraza is blocked by Volpe coming up. The Yankees get a very good SP to help them immediately, a good prospect OF (in place of Dominguez), and a couple of decent prospects for their farm system.

[MNBrew]

The Mets look like a strong third wheel candidate in a Brewers/As Matt Olson deal. There is a good chance that Oakland would value Smith higher than Tellez or a role-player prospect.

 

The A's normally don't trade for guys who are in arbitration when they are looking to shred payroll. So Tellez makes zero sense along with Dominic Smith so I see the A's rejecting this trade. Yes the A's would have to replace Olson with someone but that someone would be someone making the league minimum and not someone in their 1st or 2nd year of arbitration. So someone is either adding Piscotty or Andrus to their team if the A's are taking on Smith or Tellez. I just do not see the A's taking on someone who is already in arbitration.

 

I think a Yankees, Brewers and A's trade makes more sense.

 

Brewers get:

Gallo

Voit

 

Yankees get:

Olson

Houser

 

A's get:

Dominguez

Peraza

I agree with StearnsFTW. This proposed deal gains the Brewers a potentially solid (though obviously not flawless) return, filling some needs, without giving up the cream at the top of their prospect collection.

[StearnsFTW]

Olson is going to be really expensive. If we trade for Olson, it probably means we're going "all in" for the next couple of years and then suffering through an extended period of really bad Brewer baseball.

 

I understand the desire to acquire someone like that... he's really good. But I'd rather hold onto our top prospects and look at acquiring some guys who aren't quite as good, but who will not "gut the farm" to acquire.

 

Houser / Lauer are somewhat expendable because of Ashby, and we could get a decent return if we decide to trade one of them. Hader has been "on the market" for a while, and I don't see us holding him to free agency and losing him for nothing. He could get a decent return in trade and save us some money to upgrade elsewhere.

 

We will likely make some moves to upgrade the offense, I just don't see us getting a superstar.

 

It depends what you think of our prospects I guess. I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying here, but if I could get a good bat for Small/Turang/Houser that's what I would try to do. I'm not crazy about any of those 3 so I'd be fine losing them.

 

I'd like to hang on to Mitchell and Frelick, but I would in the right deal. No chance I'd trade Ashby for pretty much anyone.

 

Just my $.02.

 

If we did trade Houser and Small, I'd be in the market for a 5th starter type at a cheap price (Brett Anderson ish).

[JosephC]

Joey Gallo = middle of the order batter

Jeff McNeil = utility man

 

MLB career slash lines-

Joey Gallo (2401 plate appearances) = .206/.333/.489/.821

Jeff McNeil (1450 plate appearances) = .299/.364/.459/.824

[TURBO]

 

...but if I could get a good bat for Small/Turang/Houser that's what I would try to do.

 

If we lose Houser and Small, we damn well better be getting BETTER than a "good" bat in return.

[sveumrules]

Joey Gallo = middle of the order batter

Jeff McNeil = utility man

 

MLB career slash lines-

Joey Gallo (2401 plate appearances) = .206/.333/.489/.821

Jeff McNeil (1450 plate appearances) = .299/.364/.459/.824

 

Great example of how players with drastically different skill sets can produce similar value, yet massive differences in perception.

 

Since 2018, McNeil's first season...

 

Jeff | 1450 PAs | 12.5 K% | 124 OPS+ | +21 FLD | 11.2 WAR

Joey | 1716 PAs | 35.7 K% | 117 OPS+ | +37 FLD | 11.7 WAR

 

The main things holding back the perception of McNeil are that he is a late bloomer (two years older with 1,000 fewer career PAs than Gallo) and he bombed last year without the juicy ball.

 

Obviously the Ks & resulting low batting average are what hinders the perception of Gallo.

 

Similar players, but McNeil would likely cost more to acquire given the additional years of team control & positional versatility vs Gallo as a one year rental.