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Game 13: Bears @ Packers - Sunday, December 12th, 7:25 PM CT


homer
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As a whole, rule changes have really started neutering how important special teams are viewed across the league - teams can get by with non-factor return and coverage units if they have kicking/punting that routinely lead to touchbacks and fair catches. Couple that with a 90%+ FG kicker and a team like Green Bay would be just fine. It's now rare to see a team that has that guy who would never be on an NFL roster if not for how good a job he did as a punt coverage gunner. Those guys weren't developmental projects as backup DBs or WRs, they were veterans whom special teams was their NFL ticket. 10 years ago basically every team had that special team ace.

 

Now the only special teams units that stand out are the bad ones - In today's NFL it's difficult for a team to have a special teams group that consistently helps them win games, but it's very possible to have a unit that consistently hurts them on a weekly basis.

 

The Packers' unit seems so awful because their kickers wind up giving them too many opportunities to actually cover returns. Teams now have no fear bringing out a kickoff 3 yards into the end zone from Crosby, and most of his kicks don't even go that far anymore unless he tries a directional kick line drive to try to get it past the returner instead of booming a high, deep kick 5 yards into the zone that gives the coverage time to be bearing down on the return man. GB's punter routinely outkicks his coverage, and the driving ones on a line are just recipes for long returns. Last night's punt return TD was fielded at the 3 - most times a return man would never even think of fielding that punt assuming it's a touchback. More punt hangtime and shorter punts would actually make their punt coverage palatable. I've given up on them actually having a decent punt return unit because they don't have a competent returner on the roster to drive it.

 

The Packer's biggest flaw is a failure to adjust what they do on special teams to account for a lack of ability on the roster from a kicking/punting standpoint. That's on coaching/coordinators.

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Returns really haven't hurt until the Bears game. I mean yea, there have been 25 yard punt returns sprinkled in, but nothing game changing. It's the potpourri of random ST mistakes that have been costly, not any one thing. That screams coaching to me.

 

That said, I agree there should be zero KO returns. It's what the NFL wanted, and the Packers don't get it. If Crosby can't kick it through the end zone every time, get someone who can.

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Surprisingly, that was not the worst special teams performance of the season.

 

 

#Vikings Week 6 narrowly tops it.

- 2 missed FG

- punt blocked for TD

- fumble on punt return (recovered by MIN)

 

At the end of the day, some of the boneheaded stuff didn't matter (Taylor catching the kickoff and running out of bounds, Rodgers muff that was nullified by penalty).

 

Speaking of the Rodgers muffed punt, the Bears snapped the ball well after the play clock hit zero. So they can whine about that call all they want but they should have had a delay of game anyway.

 

Yeah no. Yesterday's game is worse. The rule that saved a TD is amazing.

 

As for addressing this issue, it doesn't help when Erlin gets injured. Rodgers who returned kicks in college can't seem to do this today. Cobb has fumbled when you try the just get somebody to fair catch route. Malik Taylor knows he's bad at Football. And his bad decision making is just him trying to make a play to have any career beyond GB. Just can't help himself from being bad. Feels like every returner gets injured for GB and the do this carousel of next in line that is worse than the last.

 

Crosby meanwhile yeah its a swan song for his career. But him not kicking a ball for touch backs on a crisp December night should be expected. So give him a break on that part. Out of Bounds kickoffs though is uncalled for.

The 97yd punt return, that was a bad catch yet genius because GBs coverage unit plays soft. Let up for 2seconds as typically that play is dead after fair caught. Somehow (planned? Or better coached in practice) the Bears blockers got in position during that soft let up by GBs Defenders, and walled them all off beautifully. I'm thinking of this play like the StL Cardinals unwritten rules. GB STs expected a fair catch. The kick was less than 50 yards right? You're (unwritten rule) supposed to fair catch inside the 10 or not even catch it at all. Got exposed by that attitude. The 2nd half up until the end STs looked better than normal. Hopefully we see better STs from here on out due to how awful they were in this game.

 

Was this game maybe Rodgers best of the season? The accuracy and decision making? He tear-dropped perfectly teeny window throws at least 3 likely 4times that nobody does. Found his check-downs all but maybe once imo leading to Lewis having a big game.

 

We may long for Alexander to return, but without a doubt the MVP for this defense this season is Kenny Clark. This should be legendary stuff he's doing for GB at Nose Tackle. Stuff other teams have legendary players do but not GB. He doesn't make mistakes. He makes huge plays that you don't see athletically from Nose Tackles.

It's a shame this team's injuries because so many guys on this team when on the field feel pro-Bowl worthy. If this group that could get healthy returns Its the favorite for the SB by 10pts. Go Pack Go

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Surprisingly, that was not the worst special teams performance of the season.

 

 

#Vikings Week 6 narrowly tops it.

- 2 missed FG

- punt blocked for TD

- fumble on punt return (recovered by MIN)

 

At the end of the day, some of the boneheaded stuff didn't matter (Taylor catching the kickoff and running out of bounds, Rodgers muff that was nullified by penalty).

 

Speaking of the Rodgers muffed punt, the Bears snapped the ball well after the play clock hit zero. So they can whine about that call all they want but they should have had a delay of game anyway.

 

Yeah no. Yesterday's game is worse. The rule that saved a TD is amazing.

 

 

Missing two field goals and giving up a TD on a punt block is worse than giving up a punt return TD and a bunch of yards.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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Surprisingly, that was not the worst special teams performance of the season.

 

 

#Vikings Week 6 narrowly tops it.

- 2 missed FG

- punt blocked for TD

- fumble on punt return (recovered by MIN)

 

At the end of the day, some of the boneheaded stuff didn't matter (Taylor catching the kickoff and running out of bounds, Rodgers muff that was nullified by penalty).

 

Speaking of the Rodgers muffed punt, the Bears snapped the ball well after the play clock hit zero. So they can whine about that call all they want but they should have had a delay of game anyway.

 

Yeah no. Yesterday's game is worse. The rule that saved a TD is amazing.

 

 

Missing two field goals and giving up a TD on a punt block is worse than giving up a punt return TD and a bunch of yards.

 

A penalty saved them from a muffed punt inside the 20 that would've kept the Bears in the game, too. They gave up a bunch of yards that frankly led to the Bears being able to score points after picking up 1 or 2 first downs on a drive, plus their own terrible return units gave the offense extremely long fields to work with at the start of the game. We can say Taylor's kickoff run out of bounds didn't hurt the Packers because they moved the ball just past midfield before punting that drive...aside from the fact if he let the ball sail out of bounds the Packers probably score if they start that drive from the 40 instead of their 5 yard line.

 

To me it's not just the points directly given up or failing to capitalize on scoring (missed FGs) - a special teams unit that consistently forces their defense to start drives with short fields and their offense to start drives on long fields in an era where rules just scream for drives after kickoffs to start on the 25 and a 45 yard punt after a 3 and out would give the opponent the ball on their 30 is inexcusable.

 

TD on a punt block or giving up a TD on a punt return is the same trainwreck in my book....the special teams unit was the only reason the Bears wound up within 3 TDs in that game.

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Missing two field goals and giving up a TD on a punt block is worse than giving up a punt return TD and a bunch of yards.

 

A penalty saved them from a muffed punt inside the 20 that would've kept the Bears in the game, too. They gave up a bunch of yards that frankly led to the Bears being able to score points after picking up 1 or 2 first downs on a drive, plus their own terrible return units gave the offense extremely long fields to work with at the start of the game. We can say Taylor's kickoff run out of bounds didn't hurt the Packers because they moved the ball just past midfield before punting that drive...aside from the fact if he let the ball sail out of bounds the Packers probably score if they start that drive from the 40 instead of their 5 yard line.

 

To me it's not just the points directly given up or failing to capitalize on scoring (missed FGs) - a special teams unit that consistently forces their defense to start drives with short fields and their offense to start drives on long fields in an era where rules just scream for drives after kickoffs to start on the 25 and a 45 yard punt after a 3 and out would give the opponent the ball on their 30 is inexcusable.

 

TD on a punt block or giving up a TD on a punt return is the same trainwreck in my book....the special teams unit was the only reason the Bears wound up within 3 TDs in that game.

 

We can only go off of what happened. They did not muff a punt due to penalty.

 

The Vikings missed two FGs (-6 points) and gave up a TD on a punt block (-6). Three special teams plays gave the other team 12 points (13 with the EP).

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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We can only go off of what happened. They did not muff a punt due to penalty.

 

The Vikings missed two FGs (-6 points) and gave up a TD on a punt block (-6). Three special teams plays gave the other team 12 points (13 with the EP).

 

If Amari Rodgers used the excuse of a Bear running out of bounds 40 yards away from him leading to him not being able to catch a punt, he'd be rightly roasted. The penalty had zilch to do with him being able to catch the ball or the actual play itself happening, so in my book that counts as something that occurred and they got bailed out by. Perhaps if Green Bay actually had a really solid special teams Rodgers could've fielded that punt and returned it 25+ yards upfield, allowing them to decline that penalty because they did something positive and put the offense in a better position to score.

 

Packers' special teams gave up a 97 yard punt return TD (-6); A 34 yard punt return that set the Bears up at the GB 44 and gifted them field goal range after 1 first down - the Bears scored their 1st 3 points on that drive (-3 in my book). Chicago's 2nd FG at the end of the 1st half was also set up by a 42 yard return (-3 in my book again).

 

A missed FG in my opinion is on the kicker/holder/snapper, primarily the kicker - not an entire special teams unit breakdown like long returns, botched onside kicks/blocked punts, etc. that are more attributable to coaching/scheme problems. You miss a field goal and you don't add points to your tally, but you also don't have the other team running the other way for a TD or turn the ball over deep in your own territory. If you're trying to compare just what happened in terms of scoring plays while special teams were on the field, you miss a huge component of how special teams can influence the game - field position. The Bears had 259 yards on punt and kick returns (8 total, again many opportunities due to short kickoffs and returnable punts) plus they had that kickoff Crosby kicked out of bounds set them up at the 40, while the Packers had just 47 yards on 4 returns despite Chicago kicking/punting 9 times. Even that disparity was leveled out a bit because the Bears' returns were very limited in half #2 due to better punt hang times and deeper kicks - I believe they had like 225 return yards just after the 1st half!

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About ten years ago I developed an unscientific matrix to estimate the number of points

expected to score on a drive based on field position.

 

Sunday's game had 35 kicks from scrimmage. Four plays were positive, seven were negative

and the rest neutral. I'm listing the eleven plays that had an effect on the outcome.

 

Punt coverage

Should have been 1&10 @ 78 yds from goal; Expected points = 1.95

Actual 1&10 @ 56 yds from goal; Expected points = 3.21

Net loss 1.26 pts

 

Kickoff return

Should 1&10 @60, E(pts) = 2.59

Actual 1&10 @95, E(pts) = 1.38

Net loss 1.21 pts

 

Kickoff coverage

Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @59

Net loss 0.64 pts

 

Kickoff coverage

Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @60

Net loss 0.64 pts

 

Punt coverage

Should 1&10 @97, Actual @Goal

Net loss 5.62 pts

 

Kickoff coverage

Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @58

Net loss 0.64 pts

 

Kickoff coverage

Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @92

Net gain 0.57 pts

 

Punt return

Should 1&10 @61, Actual 1&10 @48

Net gain 0.95 pts

 

Kickoff coverage

Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @87

Net gain 0.38 pts

 

Punt return

Should 1&10 @86, Actual 1&10 @71

Net gain 0.38 pts

 

Kickoff coverage

Should 1&10 @45, Actual 1&10 @-46

Net loss 9.01 pts

 

Total net = negative-16.74 pts

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About ten years ago I developed an unscientific matrix to estimate the number of points

expected to score on a drive based on field position.

 

Sunday's game had 35 kicks from scrimmage. Four plays were positive, seven were negative

and the rest neutral. I'm listing the eleven plays that had an effect on the outcome.

 

Punt coverage

Should have been 1&10 @ 78 yds from goal; Expected points = 1.95

Actual 1&10 @ 56 yds from goal; Expected points = 3.21

Net loss 1.26 pts

 

Kickoff return

Should 1&10 @60, E(pts) = 2.59

Actual 1&10 @95, E(pts) = 1.38

Net loss 1.21 pts

 

Kickoff coverage

Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @59

Net loss 0.64 pts

 

Kickoff coverage

Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @60

Net loss 0.64 pts

 

Punt coverage

Should 1&10 @97, Actual @Goal

Net loss 5.62 pts

 

Kickoff coverage

Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @58

Net loss 0.64 pts

 

Kickoff coverage

Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @92

Net gain 0.57 pts

 

Punt return

Should 1&10 @61, Actual 1&10 @48

Net gain 0.95 pts

 

Kickoff coverage

Should 1&10 @75, Actual 1&10 @87

Net gain 0.38 pts

 

Punt return

Should 1&10 @86, Actual 1&10 @71

Net gain 0.38 pts

 

Kickoff coverage

Should 1&10 @45, Actual 1&10 @-46

Net loss 9.01 pts

 

Total net = negative-16.74 pts

 

Now imagine of you added the muff that was taken away from penalty. Or a Kickoff fumble returned for a TD vs play called dead.

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Now imagine of you added the muff that was taken away from penalty. Or a Kickoff fumble returned for a TD vs play called dead.

 

Ask and you shall receive. The answer is negative-7.08

 

Cannot advance a recovered onside kick, so killing the play was the correct call.

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