If Bradley can be traded … why not Yelich too?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

This deal is only fair for the Brewers if you are under the assumption that Yelich is going to be terrible, and his contract an albatross, for the long haul. I simply refuse to believe that. Because if that is the case, we may as well strip it down to the studs and rebuild now. There is no scenario where this team continues to be a contender for years to come unless we see a rebound from Yelich.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I can imagine the reactionary takes if we pull this trade off and yelich hits .290 with 28 homers next year and voit plays 70 games and puts up a .750 ops.

 

honestly, that's probably one of the most likely scenarios.

[JosephC]

I do think Yelich will likely bounce back to 2017 levels next season. My big concern is if he'll ever be a 155 game per season player again, or now that he has the big contract he will turn into a "minor strain always means at least two weeks off" player.

 

But his level of play in 2021, that's what I see in 2025 and every year after. If the Brewers have any chance to dump this contract, it should be an absolute no-brainer deciscion.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I do think Yelich will likely bounce back to 2017 levels next season. My big concern is if he'll ever be a 155 game per season player again, or now that he has the big contract he will turn into a "minor strain always means at least two weeks off" player.

 

But his level of play in 2021, that's what I see in 2025 and every year after. If the Brewers have any chance to dump this contract, it should be an absolute no-brainer deciscion.

 

 

That's almost all probably true.

 

The Brewers do still however have Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and Hader locked in for 2022. If we have Yelich, and we suppose he's going to bounce back somewhat to form (not PlayStation Yelich, but Marlins Yelich), the best chance to compete for a division title and further *this year* probably isn't the likely 75 games of Luke Voit and Hicks, but Yelich. Even if in your scenario, that I admit I agree with, in the waning years of his contract Yelich is a decent OBP, low power 750's OPS guy who plays 100 - 120 games a year, I feel like there's still value in that if the manager we have doesn't insist on slotting him into the 3 spot.

 

If we can ditch him for NOTHING (which won't happen), that's a better deal than getting back two guys who are both average and injury prone. If we don't take any salary back, that money can be used to replace the production. Getting back Voit and Hicks doesn't let the Brewers do that, and it's the main reason I don't like the move specifically for 2022, when the Brewers have the pitching poised to have a repeat of 2021.

[trwi7]

I do think Yelich will likely bounce back to 2017 levels next season. My big concern is if he'll ever be a 155 game per season player again, or now that he has the big contract he will turn into a "minor strain always means at least two weeks off" player.

 

But his level of play in 2021, that's what I see in 2025 and every year after. If the Brewers have any chance to dump this contract, it should be an absolute no-brainer deciscion.

 

 

That's almost all probably true.

 

The Brewers do still however have Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and Hader locked in for 2022. If we have Yelich, and we suppose he's going to bounce back somewhat to form (not PlayStation Yelich, but Marlins Yelich), the best chance to compete for a division title and further *this year* probably isn't the likely 75 games of Luke Voit and Hicks, but Yelich. Even if in your scenario, that I admit I agree with, in the waning years of his contract Yelich is a decent OBP, low power 750's OPS guy who plays 100 - 120 games a year, I feel like there's still value in that if the manager we have doesn't insist on slotting him into the 3 spot.

 

If we can ditch him for NOTHING (which won't happen), that's a better deal than getting back two guys who are both average and injury prone. If we don't take any salary back, that money can be used to replace the production. Getting back Voit and Hicks doesn't let the Brewers do that, and it's the main reason I don't like the move specifically for 2022, when the Brewers have the pitching poised to have a repeat of 2021.

 

Are you factoring in the money that would be saved? Voit and Hicks aren't great by any means but Hicks will be making $11.5 million in 2022 and Voit isn't going to get much, if any raise on the $4.7 million he made in 2021 and we could easily cut bait if he doesn't work out compared to Yelich's $26 million. That's at minimum another $10 million to work with next year and significantly more than that in future years.

 

I see you saying if we had to take no money back but that's never happening with the season Yelich just had and it's possible, not likely mind you but possible that those two could combine to give us something like 4 WAR combined.

[StearnsFTW]

That's the easiest yes ever from me.

[brewtank34]

I'm having severe Hot Stove withdrawal. This winter sucks.

[nate82]

I'm having severe Hot Stove withdrawal. This winter sucks.

 

Well don't expect much on the Brewers side when it comes back especially on the FA side of things. Any major FA signing will be done after the arbitration cases are settled.

 

The Brewers will be waiting on the cases for Woodruff, Burnes and Hader before deciding on who they can afford in FA.

[sveumrules]

I'm having severe Hot Stove withdrawal. This winter sucks.

 

Yeah, it's like I get that nothing is happening right meow, but I still prefer my hypotheticals to at least be somewhat tethered to reality.

 

Yelich & Chapman both have full NTCs with no incentive to waive them. Maybe Aroldis would waive his if the acquiring team offered up a fat market rate extension, but the Brewers aren't that team.

 

How about Anthony Rendon? Has 5/188 left vs 7/189 for Yelich so you get out two years earlier, but about 11 million more per year. Rendon has zero trade protection in his contract. Yelich might consider waiving. He'd be going going back back to Cali Cali & would be get a chance to team up with Trout/Ohtani.

[Soupbone]

I know the Baseball Trade Value site is pretty random but Yelich has more than a 100 point negative trade value. Yikes!

[Soupbone]

On the other side of that is Burnes more than plus 150 and Peralta and Woodruff over plus 100.

[monty57]

On the other side of that is Burnes more than plus 150 and Peralta and Woodruff over plus 100.

 

So we'd need to pair one of our "big three" pitchers with Yelich just to get nothing back in return. Yeah, I don't think he's getting traded.

[clancyphile]

I think Yelich is going to rebound quite bit. A couple of notes...

 

1. He walked more in 2021 than he did in his MVP season of 2018. His walk rate the last two seasons has been very good. His OBP over the "slump" years is .360.

2. 2020 still saw plenty of power (2020 saw a BABIP of .259 vs. a career BABIP of .351 - 2021's was .321, so Yelich was less unlucky, and probably dealing with those lingering back issues).

 

So, what are we looking at? Probably his back issues made him uncomfortable, and the Crew will need to figure out that swing, but I see some real reasons to expect a rebound.