If Bradley can be traded … why not Yelich too?

[NievesNoNO]

Can anyone think of a comparable situation to Yelich? Meaning a massive extension coming off what should have been back-to-back MVP seasons only to completely forget how to hit? For the life of me I cannot ever recall seeing something so dramatic. (FWIW, I don’t think a broken kneecap should have this big of an impact nor do I think 2021 should be attributed to COVID).

 

I mean this is like Giannis all off a sudden regressing into Dan Gadzuric

 

I've tried, and I can't come up with really any legit comparison. There's plenty of guys that have dropped off around age 30, but not really guys that went from MVP numbers to what he has at his age.

 

Between the knee and his back, it's possible that his swing was adjusted to compensate. Of those two, I'm most concerned about the recurring back issues.

 

On a MUCH smaller scale Travis Shaw immediately comes to mind as a guy I thought was going to be a cornerstone, All-star type, everything trending in a positive direction and he completely lost his ability to make contact.

 

Matt Kemp and Justin Upton are a couple others who really fell off around age 30, but neither were doing things that Yelich did.

 

It' SOOO disappointing. I can't bring myself to be upset about the extension because it's mostly what 90% of us would want the Brewers to do. Lock up your prime years MVP star player for the next decade-ish and "build around" and let him be the face of your franchise.

[TURBO]

As much as we hate it, imagine how Yelich himself feels...

 

This has to be frustration on a level that would be hard to understand or comprehend unless it happened to you.

[brewerfan82]

Can anyone think of a comparable situation to Yelich? Meaning a massive extension coming off what should have been back-to-back MVP seasons only to completely forget how to hit? For the life of me I cannot ever recall seeing something so dramatic. (FWIW, I don’t think a broken kneecap should have this big of an impact nor do I think 2021 should be attributed to COVID).

 

I mean this is like Giannis all off a sudden regressing into Dan Gadzuric

It doesn't fit your description 100%, but the whole Chris Davis thing is pretty similar.

 

Chris Davis (2013-15, Leads MLB in HR):

 

JAN 16 2016 - Signed a 7 year $161 million contract with Baltimore (BAL)

 

Chris Davis (2016-20, Last in MLB in WAR among qualifiers):

[brewerfan82]

For comparison, here's Yelich's dropoff at this point:

 

Christian Yelich (2016-19, 3rd in MLB in WAR):

 

MAR 3 2020 - Signed a 7 year $188.5 million contract extension with Milwaukee (MIL)

 

Christian Yelich (2020-21, 88 out of 114 in WAR among qualifiers):

[TURBO]

That is just gross.

[sveumrules]

Here's some more recent examples...

 

Joey Votto...

 

2007-18 | 6764 PAs | 155 OPS+

2019-20 | 831 PAs | 97 OPS+

2021 | 533 PAs | 136 OPS+ (Age 37)

 

or Buster Posey...

 

2010-17 | 4243 PAs | 136 OPS+

2018-19 | 893 PAs | 95 OPS+

2021 | 454 PAs | 140 OPS+ (Age 34)

 

or even Brandon Belt...

 

2012-16 | 2168 PAs | 130 OPS+

2017-19 | 1523 PAs | 106 OPS+

2020-21 | 560 PAs | 165 OPS+ (Age 32-33)

 

All of them had cold stretches that were longer &/or worse than what Yelich is currently doing, and were still able to come back from it while being significantly older to boot. Looking at Christian's career arc...

 

2013-17 | 2812 PAs | 121 OPS+

2018-19 | 1231 PAs | 171 OPS+

2020-21 | 722 PAs | 103 OPS+ (Age 28-29)

 

...my best guess is that Yelich's production from 2022-28 will likely fall somewhere between the 121 OPS+ he posted as a Marlin & his 132 career mark. If he does that, the contract will be fine.

[sveumrules]

Or some older examples that should be somewhat familiar to Brewers fans...

 

Paul Molitor 1979-82 | 2192 PAs | 124 OPS+

Paul Molitor 1983-86 | 1855 PAs | 107 OPS+

Paul Molitor 1987-94 | 5081 PAs | 140 OPS+

 

Robin Yount 1978-81 | 2229 PAs | 109 OPS+

Robin Yount 1982-83 | 1366 PAs | 158 OPS+

Robin Yount 1984-87 | 2547 PAs | 123 OPS+

Robin Yount 1988-89 | 1386 PAs | 142 OPS+

[monty57]

I would love to see the Brewers replace Yelich with one of the big free agent bats - but I’m aware neither scenario is likely.

 

This is from the opening post.

 

I think everyone would love to get out of the contract if we could just snap our fingers and make it go away, but as others have said, we would probably have to trade our top 20 prospects along with Yelich and may still have to pay extra cash or take on a bad contract, so it's pretty much an untradeable contract.

 

But that leads me to the sentence I quoted. After realizing that the Yelich contract could cripple our team for most of the next decade, if somehow we were able to get rid of that deal, why on earth would we jump right back in to the fire? Most long-term deals end badly. Yelich is kind of unique that it started badly, but we can't really afford to have large chunks of our meager payroll sitting as "dead money" on a washed-up player.

 

If there is one silver lining from the Yelich deal, it would be that Brewers' management realizes that they should not sign anyone to mega-deals. They would be much better off if they had traded Yelich when he was a year from free agency rather than signing the extension, and I hope they take that path with future star players. The only extensions they should be signing are ones done when players are still in their pre-arby years and they can get a Lucroy, Braun (first extension, not second), or Peralta type deal. If the player isn't willing to sign at that point, then be prepared to trade them when they're down to a year or two of control remaining.

 

As far as free agent deals, we're probably best sitting in the 2-4 year, or maybe even 1-3 year range. We're not going to win by trying to outbid the big money teams for the superstars, so we have to maintain financial flexibility and stay away from the big, crippling mistakes.

[monty57]

Here's some more recent examples...

 

Joey Votto...

 

2007-18 | 6764 PAs | 155 OPS+

2019-20 | 831 PAs | 97 OPS+

2021 | 533 PAs | 136 OPS+ (Age 37)

 

or Buster Posey...

 

2010-17 | 4243 PAs | 136 OPS+

2018-19 | 893 PAs | 95 OPS+

2021 | 454 PAs | 140 OPS+ (Age 34)

 

or even Brandon Belt...

 

2012-16 | 2168 PAs | 130 OPS+

2017-19 | 1523 PAs | 106 OPS+

2020-21 | 560 PAs | 165 OPS+ (Age 32-33)

 

All of them had cold stretches that were longer &/or worse than what Yelich is currently doing, and were still able to come back from it while being significantly older to boot. Looking at Christian's career arc...

 

2013-17 | 2812 PAs | 121 OPS+

2018-19 | 1231 PAs | 171 OPS+

2020-21 | 722 PAs | 103 OPS+ (Age 28-29)

 

...my best guess is that Yelich's production from 2022-28 will likely fall somewhere between the 121 OPS+ he posted as a Marlin & his 132 career mark. If he does that, the contract will be fine.

 

Here's an interesting thought: If Yelich bounces back and has an MVP caliber year next year, how many posters who today are willing to trade away our top prospects just to get out of the deal will still be calling for Stearns to trade him away while he's hot and he might actually be able to get out of the deal?

[CheezWizHed]

Or some older examples that should be somewhat familiar to Brewers fans...

 

Paul Molitor 1979-82 | 2192 PAs | 124 OPS+

Paul Molitor 1983-86 | 1855 PAs | 107 OPS+

Paul Molitor 1987-94 | 5081 PAs | 140 OPS+

Sorry for the left turn here, but I was going to comment on something here, but went to fact-check myself (news-flash I was wrong), but reminded myself a couple things:

1) Molitor left the Brewers at age 35 (I don't remember him being that old)

2) He led the league in hits twice post age 35, including his age 39 year hitting 341/390/468/858

3) His last year in the league at age 41, he hit 281/335/382/718, which is nearly as good as we had at 1B and 3B last year (just less power).

- Dude could just hit... (yes, he was my favorite player)

 

But back to Yelich, Braun could be looked at for a recent example too. After 2011 and 2012 (OPS=994 and 987), he strung together a bunch of up and down years with a general downward trend: 869 (29 years old), 777, 854, 903, 823, 782, 849, and 769 (at 36).

 

Obviously, he was fighting thumb and back issues at the time, but the spark of being able to hit (when healthy) was obvious that whole time. I imagine that Yelich's back bothered him more than he was letting on this last two years.

[sveumrules]

I wouldn't be so sure especially with Manfred citing a record free agency period with nearly $2 billion in contracts doled out as proof of the league's commitment to the players. It's a strong class but I'm not sure it justifies the big leap in the money spent if there wasn't some hidden agenda in there someplace. Per information I've compiled over the years, the amounts spent per WAR in recent seasons compared to this one (thus far).

 

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Hitters $4.37 $5.23 $3.93 $3.95 $4.08 $3.86 $5.52

SP $5.92 $5.63 $5.41 $5.11 $5.54 $5.77 $7.25

RP $7.79 $7.42 $7.68 $6.46 $7.26 $4.66 $8.27

 

Curious what your methodology is for arriving at these figures?

 

Just looking at 2016 relief pitchers of the ESPN free agent tracker there is...

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/freeagents/_/year/2016/type/dollars

 

Aroldis Chapman (86 million | 6.1 WAR)

Kenley Jansen (80 million | 6.2 WAR)

Mark Melancon (62 million | 2.1 WAR)

Brett Cecil (30.5 million | -0.4 WAR)

Mike Dunn (19 million | -0.1 WAR)

Brad Ziegler (16 million | -0.8 WAR)

Junichi Tazawa (12 million | -1.5 WAR)

Santiago Casilla (11 million | 0.9 WAR)

Daniel Hudson (11 million | -0.4 WAR)

Marc Rzepczynski (11 million | -0.3 WAR)

Joaquin Benoit (7.5 million | 0.0 WAR)

Jerry Blevins (6.5 million | 1.4 WAR)

Derek Holland (6 million | -1.6 WAR)

Koji Uehara (6 million | 0.1 WAR)

Jesse Chavez (5.75 million | -0.2 WAR)

Boone Logan (5.5 million | 0.0 WAR)

Neftali Feliz (5.35 million | -0.8 WAR)

Joe Blanton (4 million | -0.2 WAR)

JP Howell (3 million | -0.2 WAR)

Sergio Romo (3 million | 0.5 WAR)

Fernando Salas (3 million | -0.7 WAR)

Joe Smith (3 million | 1.1 WAR)

Fernando Rodney (2.75 million | 0.3 WAR)

Matt Belisle (2.05 million | 0.1 WAR)

Brian Duensing (2 million | 1.4 WAR)

Dustin McGowan (1.75 million | -0.3 WAR)

Shawn Tolleson (1.15 million | 0.0 WAR)

Casey Fien (1.1 million | -1.0 WAR)

Logan Ondrusek (0.65 million | 0.0 WAR)

 

According to the ESPN tracker a total of 408.55 million was guaranteed to relievers during 2016 free agency. After adjusting down Chapman, Jansen, Melancon and Cecil for pandemic reduced 2020 salaries it comes out to 373.8 million in salary for 11.7 total WAR. Maybe teams were hoping to only pay 7.79 million per WAR, but they ended up paying considerably more.

[superfly]

It’s like the endless Braun contract whining found a new avenue into whining about Yelichs contract. No he is not where we want him to be, but the contract is not that bad, and it’ll look even less bad in a few years compared to the market rate.

[TURBO]

It’s like the endless Braun contract whining found a new avenue into whining about Yelichs contract. No he is not where we want him to be, but the contract is not that bad, and it’ll look even less bad in a few years compared to the market rate.

 

 

Well, it is "that" bad when you consider it is about to be 1/4 of our payroll.

 

We have an average player eating up 25% of what we pay the entire team.

 

It really is that bad...

[superfly]

It’s like the endless Braun contract whining found a new avenue into whining about Yelichs contract. No he is not where we want him to be, but the contract is not that bad, and it’ll look even less bad in a few years compared to the market rate.

 

 

Well, it is "that" bad when you consider it is about to be 1/4 of our payroll.

 

We have an average player eating up 25% of what we pay the entire team.

 

It really is that bad...

 

Yet we keep on winning and DS keeps making the budget work, despite having at least one “albatross” contract for his entire tenure. Odd. It’s almost as if we can wait for Yelich to return to a pretty good baseball player.

[SoCalBrewfan]

If it were me I'd be reluctant to lock in the apparent negative value of that contract right now, in the hopes that Yelich can return to some higher level of productivity. You might think that's a slim hope, but as noted above it's hardly unprecedented for a player to have a lost season or two but then right the ship. Right now, if you deal him, that paper loss becomes a real one; as others have said you empty the farm system or take on a different bad contract, and you have nothing to show for it. I get that there are sunk costs, but I also don't think it's set in stone that Yelich will never be good again.

 

If he rebounds somewhat, not to MVP levels but to something like Marlins Yelich level, the contract is not the liability it once was. Still not great, but with every passing year, the remaining years and dollars decrease and contracts around the league continue to increase. It remains to be seen of course, but there have been, what, five or six $24M+ AAV contracts in the pre-lockout burst? With probably at least a few more to come. Twenty million doesn't go as far as it used to...

[ewitkows]

[sarcasm]We just need to up the payroll so he's a smaller part of it[/sarcasm]

[Axman59]

[sarcasm]We just need to up the payroll so he's a smaller part of it[/sarcasm]

 

No blue needed.

 

We need to up the payroll so he's a smaller part of it

[superfly]

If it were me I'd be reluctant to lock in the apparent negative value of that contract right now, in the hopes that Yelich can return to some higher level of productivity. You might think that's a slim hope, but as noted above it's hardly unprecedented for a player to have a lost season or two but then right the ship. Right now, if you deal him, that paper loss becomes a real one; as others have said you empty the farm system or take on a different bad contract, and you have nothing to show for it. I get that there are sunk costs, but I also don't think it's set in stone that Yelich will never be good again.

 

If he rebounds somewhat, not to MVP levels but to something like Marlins Yelich level, the contract is not the liability it once was. Still not great, but with every passing year, the remaining years and dollars decrease and contracts around the league continue to increase. It remains to be seen of course, but there have been, what, five or six $24M+ AAV contracts in the pre-lockout burst? With probably at least a few more to come. Twenty million doesn't go as far as it used to...

 

Exactly. Why would we give our prospects away to sell a MVP caliber player at his bottom trough valuation to then go out and sign some (likely) early to mid 30s players to take his place? Nobody’s denying it sucks that he’s not playing well, but it’s pretty much pointless to deal him when you’re just going to shuffle the paper to some other guy with lesser talent that could fall off the map at any moment too. I’ll keep my prospects and hope they pan out for cheap talent to offset Yelich and see if he comes back in the future thanks.

[SoCalBrewfan]

We just need to up the payroll so he's a smaller part of it

 

I mean, we had a $103M opening day payroll in 2014 (link below). It hardly seems a stretch that in the midst of a competitive window, eight years later, we should be able to top that.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/

[monty57]

We just need to up the payroll so he's a smaller part of it

 

I mean, we had a $103M opening day payroll in 2014 (link below). It hardly seems a stretch that in the midst of a competitive window, eight years later, we should be able to top that.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/

 

I think the problem isn't that we couldn't add this year, the problem is that we will have significant arby raises over the next few seasons, so we probably don't want to add a big, multi-year contract. If we can nab an upgrade on a one-year deal I think we'd do it. If the CBA negotiations drag out, I think the odds of finding a guy willing to sign to a one-year deal could increase.

[Vollbc74]

[TURBO]

 

That is disgustingly putrid.

[DuWayne Steurer]

gross. no.

[NYChez]

The proposal tweeted is:

 

Yankees get:

Christian Yelich

Josh Hader

 

Brewers get:

Aroldis Chapman

Luke Voit

Aaron Hicks

Domingo German

 

MLB Trade Values has Yelich having such negative value that the Brewers could throw in Turang, Mitchell, and Frelick, and the trade would still favor the Brewers.

 

A rebound to just Yelich being an above-average player would be the biggest franchise development in 2022.

[JosephC]

I'd make that trade in about one nanosecond. For those of you who couldn't stand having German on the roster, he doesn't have a guaranteed contract so he could be dumped in the spring.

 

Even if one guarantees the 2021 salaries for the two Yankees in arbitration and Hader for 2022, using the MLBTradeRumors arbitration estimates, the amount of money involved is Chapman = 16 million for one season, Hicks = 41 million for four seasons, Voit = 5.4 million, German = 2.1 million, Yelich = 188.5 million, Hader = 10 million. So that would be 198.5 million heading to the Yankees, 64.2 million heading to Milwaukee. As far as just 2022 salaries, Chapman + Hicks + Voit + German = 34 million and Yelich + Hader = 36 million so it actually clears 2 million in payroll for this coming season.

 

So after this move, I would immediately pivot and offer German, Voit or Tellez (A's pick), Brice Turang and Sal Frelick and see if that would be enough to land Matt Olson and Lou Trivino. I'm assuming the A's take Tellez primarily because he is the cheaper option. I'm not going to sit down and do all the math, but I think these moves would push the Brewer's payroll to about 117 million this season, so Attanasio would have to sign off on that, which I hope he would do since I would be approaching this season as a true go-for-it type year. If payroll needs to be cut, then I'd likely be looking to trade Voit for a lottery-ticket type prospect. That would put it back down to around 112 million, which seems like a reasonable level for the payroll to me.

 

Woodruff

Burnes

Peralta

Houser

Lauer

 

Chapman

Williams

Trivino

Ashby

Suter

Cousins

+2

 

Wong

Urias

Adames

Olson

Renfroe

Taylor

Narvaez

Cain

 

Severino

Voit (DH)

Hicks

some combo of Brosseau/Peterson/Ray

 

Only thing I really don't like is Renfroe at #5, would rather see a better OBP guy to bump him to #6. Maybe Taylor could turn out to be that guy. With a DH then Voit goes in at #5, Renfroe at #6 and Taylor at #7 and that actually looks pretty decent if Voit could actually stay healthy (and the A's don't take him).