Brewers trade for Hunter Renfroe in exchange for Jackie Bradley Jr., David Hamilton and Alex Binelas

[BrewCrewForever]

Hunter Renfroe's career stats at AmFam Field....

 

.303/.378/.818

 

Prettay, prettay good.

 

 

My, oh my. Gorgeous.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

For those of you talking about Seager, he already signed a 10 year deal with Texas. Renfroe hit OBP of .341 at Fenway and only .287 on the road. That doesn't bode well. He is past his prime by age so little chance of improvement. OPS .870 at Fenway and .761 on the road. The road guy is likely the one the Brewers will get.

 

He is literally in his prime.

Renfroe is 30 years old which is exactly the age players, on average, begin their decline so I would agree that he's past his prime.

 

Slight correction: Renfroe doesn't actually turn 30 until Jan. 28.

[TURBO]

 

Slight correction: Renfroe doesn't actually turn 30 until Jan. 28.

 

 

Which is before he ever has an AB in a Brewers uniform, so yes, he is 30 as far as we are concerned.

 

[Eye Black]

Hunter Renfroe's career stats at AmFam Field....

 

.303/.378/.818

 

Prettay, prettay good.

 

 

My, oh my. Gorgeous.

Probably most impressive of all is the fact he’s hit 5 home runs in just 33 at bats (37 plate appearances) there.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Slight correction: Renfroe doesn't actually turn 30 until Jan. 28.

 

 

Which is before he ever has an AB in a Brewers uniform, so yes, he is 30 as far as we are concerned.

 

 

It's about optics. 29 going on 30 sounds better than 30 going on 31, which is what Simba's post would lead most to believe.

 

But yes, Renfroe will be playing in his age 30 season in 2022. While determining what a player's "prime" years are is FAR from an exact science, this article from the Boston Globe (https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/02/what-baseball-player-prime-age/mS39neFWm4hrVukT6lSYuK/story.html) indicates a player's "prime" lasts until they are approximately through their age 30 season. So, by that definition, Renfroe is still in his prime, but on the tail end of it.

 

But, he was obviously a late bloomer (which explains why he is still arby eligible through 2023 at his age), so who knows?

 

Wow, this offseason is going to really suck for awhile, isn't it?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

According to Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic (https://theathletic.com/2995533/2021/12/03/rosenthal-labor-dispute-is-about-one-thing-freemans-destination-could-impact-olson-verlander-mystery-more-notes/, the Brewers had some options for Bradley Jr., including a straight-up deal with the Blue Jays for Randal Grichuk or theoretically a deal with the Padres for Wil Myers. Those are more in line with what I was thinking they'd have to do with JBJ ... a swap of bad contracts. In the end, I can see why they chose to include the prospects they did for Renfroe, rather than trade one problem for potentially another.

[TURBO]

According to Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic (https://theathletic.com/2995533/2021/12/03/rosenthal-labor-dispute-is-about-one-thing-freemans-destination-could-impact-olson-verlander-mystery-more-notes/, the Brewers had some options for Bradley Jr., including a straight-up deal with the Blue Jays for Randal Grichuk or theoretically a deal with the Padres for Wil Myers. Those are more in line with what I was thinking they'd have to do with JBJ ... a swap of bad contracts. In the end, I can see why they chose to include the prospects they did for Renfroe, rather than trade one problem for potentially another.

 

 

Agreed, I think he made the right call if those were his other options.

 

And yes, it will be a long, boring off season if the lockout drags on, and it sure looks like it will...

[Simba2020]

 

Slight correction: Renfroe doesn't actually turn 30 until Jan. 28.

 

 

Which is before he ever has an AB in a Brewers uniform, so yes, he is 30 as far as we are concerned.

 

 

It's about optics. 29 going on 30 sounds better than 30 going on 31, which is what Simba's post would lead most to believe.

 

But yes, Renfroe will be playing in his age 30 season in 2022. While determining what a player's "prime" years are is FAR from an exact science, this article from the Boston Globe (https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/02/what-baseball-player-prime-age/mS39neFWm4hrVukT6lSYuK/story.html) indicates a player's "prime" lasts until they are approximately through their age 30 season. So, by that definition, Renfroe is still in his prime, but on the tail end of it.

 

But, he was obviously a late bloomer (which explains why he is still arby eligible through 2023 at his age), so who knows?

 

Wow, this offseason is going to really suck for awhile, isn't it?

I haven't updated this in a couple of years. But average WAR by age, and that would be determined by how it's listed on BR, is shown below. This is since 1970 for players that had 10 year careers to better capture the trends.

 

Age Avg Total

20 0.58 78

21 0.78 159

22 0.94 437

23 1.13 826

24 1.45 1284

25 1.74 1688

26 2.01 2042

27 2.08 2140

28 2.01 2014

29 2.04 1954

30 1.83 1729

31 1.68 1480

32 1.34 1115

33 1.16 917

34 1.03 688

35 0.98 533

[brewerfan82]

At least they snuck this move in before the lockout. It definitely makes for more interesting conversation than debating the Brett Sullivan signing for the next few months.

[Austin Tatious]

1. I am not surprised that we acquired a stopgap outfielder to take the Garcia role. Our minors are stacked at OF. Between Wiemer, Mitchell, Frelick, Perez, and Gray, they are coming. While skeptics love to trivialize minor leaguers, I would wager at least 2-3 of them become good big league regulars as these guys profile quite well. We also have Yelich for the long haul. I don't think we want to get bogged down with progress blockers.

 

2. Bradley, Jr is arguably the worst free agent acquisition in team history. What did he hit, 0.160? That's honestly hard to believe. You then talk about being on the hook for a couple of more years, and you're staring at a massive financial commitment. Yes, his defense was stellar but black hole would have been a compliment to him at the plate. No major league hitter should get in a funk that deep. It was ridiculous and no amount of defense makes that ok. He made Jeffrey Hammonds and Jeff Suppan look like awesome acquisitions by comparison.

 

3. Having said that, IMO Stearns is brilliant. Brilliant does not mean that you don't ever whiff. He has no way of knowing that Bradley would turn in an unprecedented catastrophe.

 

4. Someone else said it, but Stearns was smart to get out from that. He cut his losses and took his medicine instead of prolonging the mistake. It takes very smart management to do that as a lot of GM's get mired in a problem.

 

5. We had to give up Hamilton and Binelas. No one is happy about that, but there was definitely a cost to get out from Bradley. Those are two good prospects but you aren't getting out from Bradley for free. Maybe Binelas will turn into Matt LaPorta. Or maybe he will become Joey Gallo. Same concept with Hamilton, who is talented. No way to know right now. The end game is winning games and our FO did what they had to do and they are comfortable they made a move that will work in terms of having the team covered either way.

 

6. Let's see what Renfroe can do. He's a journeyman in a sense, but I think he can be comparable to Garcia, with the stick anyway. Maybe we could get a peak season or two out of him.

 

7. Stearns was in a difficult spot and he got out of it. He paid the price, but he got out of it. Credit him for not being bogged down with how he got in the jam (a bad signing). We are lucky to have him and I hope we keep him here for the long haul.

[clancyphile]

Hunter Renfroe's career stats at AmFam Field....

 

.303/.378/.818

 

Prettay, prettay good.

 

That is very intriguing... small sample disclaimers apply, but that is a very fascinating BA/OBP combo working out to a .440 SLG if the .818 is OPS.

[Smichaelis9]

Hunter Renfroe's career stats at AmFam Field....

 

.303/.378/.818

 

Prettay, prettay good.

 

That is very intriguing... small sample disclaimers apply, but that is a very fascinating BA/OBP combo working out to a .440 SLG if the .818 is OPS.

That is actually his SLG. His OPS is 1.197 at AmFam. Highest of any park he’s played at.

[monty57]

I can see both sides of this. I like the idea of stockpiling prospects, and I believe that small revenue teams need a steady stream of young players making their way onto the MLB roster. I also think that we needed to get some help on the MLB roster, and don't have a lot of free cash to sign people.

 

Renfroe has warts, but to get him for a negative value player and two prospects who are far from the Top 100 lists seems like a good deal. The way the Brewers use their outfielders, the 4th guy is going to get a lot of PAs, and I don't think anyone wanted to see those go to Bradley. Our MLB team should be better after this move, and we didn't have to give up any of our top prospects to do it.

 

One of Stearns' talents seems to be spotting talent at a young age. I'll trust his judgement on letting Binelas go. He has a lot of power, but he also struck out in 1/4 of his PAs as an "advanced college bat" playing in the low minors. I wish him well, but I think he's a long shot to ever be an MLB player, so I'm not going to lose sleep over him being traded away in order to improve the MLB club. If we trade someone like Mitchell, Ashby, Small, or Turang, then I might worry a little, but not Binelas and Hamilton.

 

This isn't a slam dunk, and when trading prospects there is always a chance that five years down the road it will look like a really bad deal, but right now this looks like a deal that is in the Brewers favor. Just getting out of the Bradley contract makes me happy, and getting a passable MLB starter that helps strengthen a couple weaknesses (RF, good against LHP) is icing on the cake.

[monty57]

I'd also like to add that while Bradley is a negative value player, the money in the contract is much less worrisome to a big revenue team like the Red Sox than it is to the Brewers. A bad player is a bad player, but if the Red Sox really like the prospects, they can easily eat Bradley's contract, while the Brewers were hamstrung by it.

[clancyphile]

Hunter Renfroe's career stats at AmFam Field....

 

.303/.378/.818

 

Prettay, prettay good.

 

That is very intriguing... small sample disclaimers apply, but that is a very fascinating BA/OBP combo working out to a .440 SLG if the .818 is OPS.

That is actually his SLG. His OPS is 1.197 at AmFam. Highest of any park he’s played at.

 

Oh.

 

Oh...

 

OH, YEAH!!!!!!

[CheezWizHed]

Hunter Renfroe's career stats at AmFam Field....

 

.303/.378/.818

 

Prettay, prettay good.

 

That is very intriguing... small sample disclaimers apply, but that is a very fascinating BA/OBP combo working out to a .440 SLG if the .818 is OPS.

That is actually his SLG. His OPS is 1.197 at AmFam. Highest of any park he’s played at.

 

So, he is a platoon player? Only play him at home?

[CheezWizHed]

Well, certainly there was upside in just keeping JBJ. I would expect that his numbers would return towards his averages next year... but I can also understand de-risking it and going with Renfroe. Here's hoping Hunter can keep his OBP north of 310...

[markedman5]

Well, certainly there was upside in just keeping JBJ. I would expect that his numbers would return towards his averages next year... but I can also understand de-risking it and going with Renfroe. Here's hoping Hunter can keep his OBP north of 310...

 

They needed a right handed power bat badly after losing Garcia.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm still in the camp that Taylor could provide what Garcia did (or Renfroe).

 

But that has little to do with JBJ directly. He was horrid this year, so everyone wanted to dump him. But I'd put money down that his performance will go towards his career averages and will provide positive benefit this year to Boston.

[igor67]

I'm all for at least acknowledging that statistically you have to think there is some bounce back in Bradley, but .160 is so bad and he had a lot of chances to show anything positive that there is a lot of reasonability to thinking that he is more likely to see that positive bounce back outside of Milwaukee. Under older models of bench usage the defense might be enough to justify wasting only 100 ABs but even a 5th OFer is going to get too many these days.

 

My over all take is that this is very much how Stearns seems to operate, not chasing flexibility for the sake of flexibility but instead pursuing flexibility in the sense of making a large number of moves that he believes all offer a net positive, and because of the sheer volume and eye towards flexibility he can move on relatively easily from those that don't work as intended. So he'll keep churning some prospect in and some out.

[bjkrautk]

I don't love the addition of Renfroe (career .297 OBP) to a Brewers team that struggled to produce runs, particularly through the lens of replacing Avi (career .325 OBP).

Conversely, as a replacement for JBJ (career .311 OBP, with notably less power than either), Renfroe is most likely worth the prospect cost.

 

The real question - after the lockout - is what they do with the money saved, both in terms of not having to buy Avi's replacement on the open market, as well as dumping JBJ's 2021 salary?

[Devinep]

I'm still in the camp that Taylor could provide what Garcia did (or Renfroe).

 

But it isn’t an either/or thing. Cain’s age and health mean Taylor will get starts there. The likely DH, Yelich being a lefty, and Renfroe’s struggle vs righties will give Taylor corner OF starts too. With some likely injuries, there’s plenty of playing time to go around

[brewmann04]

Renfroe can add power to the lineup and it was a good deal because we didn't lose any Pitching Prospects. I still think DS has one FA addition once this CBA gets done.

The Crew not done adding hitting and still think we might be adding an Old friend to the PEN.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

"Well, certainly there was upside in just keeping JBJ."

 

Not a sentence I thought I'd be reading today.

 

Expected performance aside, JBJ has two very expensive contract years remaining. Renfroe would have to crash the team bus and put half the team on the DL, to be that level of an albatross given he comes with no commitment beyond this season.

 

JBJ had one of the worst seasons with the bat in team (if not MLB) history. And came with a bloated contract. Fans dream of the team simply shedding a contract like this with no return. The Brewers somehow shed the entire contract and come away with a guy who is a virtual clone statistically of their top offseason departure, while merely sacrificing two prospects ranked in the late teens, and not only are many "meh" on the trade, at least one is pondering the thought of being better off with JBJ.

 

Never ceasing to be amazed.

[MVP2110]

Renfroe can add power to the lineup and it was a good deal because we didn't lose any Pitching Prospects. I still think DS has one FA addition once this CBA gets done.

The Crew not done adding hitting and still think we might be adding an Old friend to the PEN.

 

I do agree with this. I expect the Brewers to sign one more solid bat to the lineup once the lockout ends. Probably a pen arm or two as well