Brewers trade for Hunter Renfroe in exchange for Jackie Bradley Jr., David Hamilton and Alex Binelas

[KeithStone53151]

The great thing about this trade is we replaced Avi with a similar player without adding to the payroll so they can still add another bat via free agency.

 

With arbitration estimates, I think our payroll is going to shake out around 110 million with no major moves and the CBA as is. I'm not sure how much more we'll increase the payroll before opening day.

[Eye Black]

The other thing is while Renfroe mashes LHP, as currently constructed the NL Central features almost exclusively right handed starting pitching. Wade Miley, Kwan Hyung Kim and Matz are the only lefty starters currently in the Division.

Kim is currently a free agent. Right now the only projected opposing NL Central starting LHPs are Miley (Cubs), Matz (Cardinals), Quintana (Pirates) and maybe Dillon Peters (Pirates).

[Thurston Fluff]

The other thing is while Renfroe mashes LHP, as currently constructed the NL Central features almost exclusively right handed starting pitching. Wade Miley, Kwan Hyung Kim and Matz are the only lefty starters currently in the Division.

Kim is currently a free agent. Right now the only projected opposing NL Central starting LHPs are Miley (Cubs), Matz (Cardinals), Quintana (Pirates) and maybe Dillon Peters (Pirates).

 

While there may not be many starting pitchers in the division yet the off season isn't over. Even assuming there aren't any more there are certainly lefty relievers who will need to pitch to him given the three batter rule. That also means opposing teams may have to change their usage of lefties if Renfroe is coming up in the inning. Not to mention pinch hitting. As has been mentioned we were short of power hitters to face left handed pitchers so having more balance makes it harder for opposing teams to navigate the lineup later in games. Diversification is one way to add to the offense if we can't find/afford major upgrades.

Overall I like the deal in that we at least tried to add something we didn't have much of. I would have liked it better is we had a high OBP guy with the power but that isn't likely to happen given our payroll constraints.

[harrydalton]

Checked Red Sox boards late last night and overwhelmingly disliked the trade.

Comments on Renfroe defense mixed, like on this board.

Trade still looks good to me.

[umphrey]

You can’t really sleep on prospects when BOS clearly valued them in the $5M to $15M range

[timpep]

What this trade proves is that David Stearns is not infallible. Signing Bradley was a clear miss. But instead of compounding the issue and hoping for a Bradley rebound, he's now someone else's problem. When Stearns makes mistakes, he's not above moving on from them quickly. I think that is one aspect of his management style that I like the most.

 

This is spot on. Love this trade. JBJ gone...good riddance.

.

 

I'm a few pages late but I completely agree. Stearns best asset imo is his ability to not double down when something doesn't work out.

[Jopal78]

They didn't though. Renfroe will make 7.5MM this year, JBJ 9.5

In 2023 JBJ as a 8 MM buyout and Renfroe is up for Arb4 (~10MM)

 

its a wash

 

Unless Renfroe goes out and destroys NL pitching in 2022, he's likely a one and done player for the Brewers, so the savings is likely closer to 10 million.

 

This is also the reason he is on the Brewers in the first place: his increasing cost is outpacing the value of his production.

[DR28]

One player who may be quietly hopeful about about the JBJ trade is David Dahl. The LHH OF was an all-star in 2019 and is still only 27, so he’ll be pining for a shot to be our 5th outfielder. Of course, we’ll probably trade for Ben Gamel or something.

 

You sure he is still in our system? I thought his minor deal was just for rest of 2021 season.

[Simba2020]

One player who may be quietly hopeful about about the JBJ trade is David Dahl. The LHH OF was an all-star in 2019 and is still only 27, so he’ll be pining for a shot to be our 5th outfielder. Of course, we’ll probably trade for Ben Gamel or something.

 

You sure he is still in our system? I thought his minor deal was just for rest of 2021 season.

I would think Dahl is a free agent as well. Not sure if he'd be able to get a major league contract at this point of his career so I could see him signing with somebody soon (assuming he is an FA).

[NievesNoNO]

I have no idea how to gauge if he just had a career year or if he made sustainable changes but I'm encouraged the change in his plate discipline stats. This past season, Renfroe appears to have swung more often than he has in his career but managed to swing and miss less and make more contact than he has any other year.

 

Also, statcast seems to like his ability to barrel the ball up.

 

Again, not sure if it's just good outlier year and a chance for Boston to sell high or if those changes are real but in a year where players were generally having difficulty making more contact it certainly seem like he maybe made a positive adjustment.

[ougiqbxy]

I think you all need to take time and go read some boston comments to feel better about this trade. I know it warmed my heart. everyone thinks this is the worst trade in bostons history. so, take that with some pride, guys.

 

Worse than Tyler Thornburg?

[damuelle]

One player who may be quietly hopeful about about the JBJ trade is David Dahl. The LHH OF was an all-star in 2019 and is still only 27, so he’ll be pining for a shot to be our 5th outfielder. Of course, we’ll probably trade for Ben Gamel or something.

 

You sure he is still in our system? I thought his minor deal was just for rest of 2021 season.

I would think Dahl is a free agent as well. Not sure if he'd be able to get a major league contract at this point of his career so I could see him signing with somebody soon (assuming he is an FA).

 

Based on the lack of announcements or updates to their player pages or MILB team rosters, we're thinking that David Dahl and a few other guys (Jamie Westbrook, Dustin Peterson, Luis Perdomo, Carlos Luna, Andy Otero) are sticking around, though we lost others (e.g. Matt Lipka, Mitch Longo). If true, then Dahl and Corey Ray can battle it out for the 5th MLB outfield spot in spring training and we can dream of great things for Dahl from there.

 

Mass Haas had posted on this about a week ago:

From my tweet Wednesday:

"For me very impressive Brewers retained OF David Dahl, OF/1B Dustin Peterson & versatile Jamie Westbrook on '22 minor deals (apparently). Team hasn't listed non-roster invites on their site yet, but these 3 would be locks. Heck if Crew is to lose anyone in Rule 5, it's Westbrook."

[superfly]

No offense, but what is wrong with some posters on this forum. People are complaining about a MIRACLE TRADE?? Renfroe is projected to out-hit Avisail Garcia next year and we just landed him for an untradeable player.

 

Agree. Prospect hugging is a thing.

 

They may turn out (I'll be shocked if Hamilton ever contributes in the majors), but they probably won't.

 

BrInSoN iS a fOunDaTiOnAl pIeCe

[LouisEly]

If Binelas wasn't a local kid, people would be much more excited about this. If Binelas was a great prospect, he wouldn't have been available late in the 3rd round. He certainly has developmental risk.

[wallus]

Hunter Renfroe's career stats at AmFam Field....

 

.303/.378/.818

 

Prettay, prettay good.

[MadScientist]

They didn't though. Renfroe will make 7.5MM this year, JBJ 9.5

In 2023 JBJ as a 8 MM buyout and Renfroe is up for Arb4 (~10MM)

 

its a wash

 

Unless Renfroe goes out and destroys NL pitching in 2022, he's likely a one and done player for the Brewers, so the savings is likely closer to 10 million.

 

This is also the reason he is on the Brewers in the first place: his increasing cost is outpacing the value of his production.

Also there's a big difference between paying Refroe to play and paying JBJ to not play.

[clancyphile]

Any suggestion that Renfroe alone is not enough of an offensive upgrade makes little sense in the context of this thread/trade. The alternative, who we traded away, was Jackie Bradley Jr.! Unless you were hoping for Binelas to become the everyday DH out of spring training and hit .300/.400/.500 to win RoY, as it sounds like many on here were.

 

Maybe not this spring training, but perhaps in spring training 2025...

 

Binelas did flash a lot of good things this year. He looked to be, at worst, an Eric Thames type, and if he put up the numbers Thames did in Milwaukee, that would be very nice at the major-league minimum. Others hoped he could be a power bat at third base. Hamilton had a definite "steal bases" tool, good OBP skills, and flashed some power. I was hoping the Crew would move him over the diamond and use him as a Hernan Perez-type.

 

Well, to make the JBJ salary dump, the Crew parted with two prospects. Maybe they were throw-ins, but when we go back through Top 25 discussions, or looking to see who made big contributions... anyone remember Brent Suter, a 31st-round pick who very few thought would do much for the Crew? Or how about Manny Pina, an unexciting catching prospect... who will now deliver Pineapple bombs for the Braves and will be missed? Hernan Perez, a nonescript waiver wire pickup... who only proved to be a valuable bench asset on two Brewers playoff teams. Nate Orf, an undrafted free agent who later came up with a big hit or two in a brief tenure.

 

So, it's not about "prospect hugging" to me. It's more about maximizing the Milwaukee Brewers' chances for consistent long-term competitiveness. Yes, Renfroe helps the competiiveness in 2022-2023 with his power bat, but there was a significant chance that Hamilton and Binelas would be key contibutors for the Brewers in the late 2020s that has bene given up.

[rickh150]

Great trade. We could have given JBJ away with the prospects for a bag of apples and I would have said still a good trade. We get a good player with a decent contract for two years and we get rid of a floundering player with a costly contract. The prospects are meh too, at least now.

[SRB]

Any suggestion that Renfroe alone is not enough of an offensive upgrade makes little sense in the context of this thread/trade. The alternative, who we traded away, was Jackie Bradley Jr.! Unless you were hoping for Binelas to become the everyday DH out of spring training and hit .300/.400/.500 to win RoY, as it sounds like many on here were.

 

Maybe not this spring training, but perhaps in spring training 2025...

 

Binelas did flash a lot of good things this year. He looked to be, at worst, an Eric Thames type, and if he put up the numbers Thames did in Milwaukee, that would be very nice at the major-league minimum. Others hoped he could be a power bat at third base. Hamilton had a definite "steal bases" tool, good OBP skills, and flashed some power. I was hoping the Crew would move him over the diamond and use him as a Hernan Perez-type.

 

Well, to make the JBJ salary dump, the Crew parted with two prospects. Maybe they were throw-ins, but when we go back through Top 25 discussions, or looking to see who made big contributions... anyone remember Brent Suter, a 31st-round pick who very few thought would do much for the Crew? Or how about Manny Pina, an unexciting catching prospect... who will now deliver Pineapple bombs for the Braves and will be missed? Hernan Perez, a nonescript waiver wire pickup... who only proved to be a valuable bench asset on two Brewers playoff teams. Nate Orf, an undrafted free agent who later came up with a big hit or two in a brief tenure.

 

So, it's not about "prospect hugging" to me. It's more about maximizing the Milwaukee Brewers' chances for consistent long-term competitiveness. Yes, Renfroe helps the competiiveness in 2022-2023 with his power bat, but there was a significant chance that Hamilton and Binelas would be key contibutors for the Brewers in the late 2020s that has bene given up.

 

If you're not willing to trade mid-tier prospects (low minors players ranked in the teens in a mediocre system) for an everyday piece (such as a 2+ WAR corner OF) because of dreams about what they could be if everything breaks right, then the Brewers would finish 50-122 every season in perpetuity. There's waaaaay too much homerism about Brewers prospects on here, because we all follow the team very closely and thus fall in love with dream scenarios about obscure prospects. I distinctly remember convincing myself that Jacob Gatewood was going to be the next Bryce Harper, to cite as an example the last guy I remember who had huge power and was allegedly "supposed to be a top of the first round pick" before a bunch of teams passed on him (...because he wasn't actually that good).

 

A mid-to-low payroll team like the Brewers has to be willing to constantly cycle though these kinds of prospects. We will draft multiple guys as "valuable" as Binelas (a recently drafted third-rounder who had a decent but not spectacular season against overmatched low-A pitching) in the next amateur draft. Does that mean there's a 0% chance Binelas could turn into a starting 1B? Of course not, but you can't run a team that way.

 

I would have had zero qualms about trading Binelas and Hamilton for a player of Renfroe's caliber straight up. The fact that we managed to throw in JBJ as well, with zero money included, is miraculous. (I would have also gladly traded Suter or Pina for Renfroe straight up, FWIW).

[DHonks]

I like this trade a lot. It's also good for a couple of reminders:

1) the Brewers are up against some serious budget limitations and have made a trade like many other clubs have

2) you can never have enough prospects.

[rickh150]

I like this trade a lot. It's also good for a couple of reminders:

1) the Brewers are up against some serious budget limitations and have made a trade like many other clubs have

2) you can never have enough prospects.

 

 

2) Yes, you can. Rule 5 says so.

[Outlander]

I could put this in any trade thread but I look at trades involving prospects to expected value akin the JosephC's trade value analysis.

 

Expected value states that a 80% chance of something worth 5 "points" (4) is better than a 10% chance of 20 points (2) and 25% chance of 6 (1.5).

 

Yet if either of the smaller chances hits, the actual results favors the worse odds.

 

If the chances of Binelas or Hamilton being impactful are static, does the actual results change whether it was a good or bad trade?

 

If I found 10 bucks on the street, was it a good decision to pocket the money instead of playing the lottery, whether I won or not?

Yes , it is a business with results determining if you are a good or bad gm. You can have every internet site say it was a good trade but in the end the only thing that matters is results. Stearns is a genius for getting Peralta for Lind. He was hoping one would hit but if he makes a bunch of trades and nothing ever hits he isn't sticking around.

[MrTPlush]

For those of you talking about Seager, he already signed a 10 year deal with Texas. Renfroe hit OBP of .341 at Fenway and only .287 on the road. That doesn't bode well. He is past his prime by age so little chance of improvement. OPS .870 at Fenway and .761 on the road. The road guy is likely the one the Brewers will get.

 

He is literally in his prime.

[Eye Black]

Baseball America had a good article featuring some hitting prospects…

 

10 MLB Hitting Prospects With Intriguing Analytical Characteristics

 

Alex Binelas was one of the 10 hitters featured, which included this passage…

 

Binelas’ power is impressive, with a max exit velocity in the 111 mph range and a 90th percentile exit velocity above 107 mph (per sources), no surprise to anyone that’s seen him at his best as an amateur.

[Simba2020]

For those of you talking about Seager, he already signed a 10 year deal with Texas. Renfroe hit OBP of .341 at Fenway and only .287 on the road. That doesn't bode well. He is past his prime by age so little chance of improvement. OPS .870 at Fenway and .761 on the road. The road guy is likely the one the Brewers will get.

 

He is literally in his prime.

Renfroe is 30 years old which is exactly the age players, on average, begin their decline so I would agree that he's past his prime.