Brewers trade for Hunter Renfroe in exchange for Jackie Bradley Jr., David Hamilton and Alex Binelas

[patrickgpe]

While it's cool the Brewers freed up 10 million dollars or so in payroll, its hard to get excited about Hunter Renfroe.

 

They didn't though. Renfroe will make 7.5MM this year, JBJ 9.5

In 2023 JBJ as a 8 MM buyout and Renfroe is up for Arb4 (~10MM)

 

its a wash

[brewerfan82]

I don't see how saving 2 million on JBJ's contract will allow us to suddenly sign a big bat. 2 million is nothing.

 

I am for the trade, I just don't know how everyone is thinking we have all this extra money to play with now, and how that will translate into signing another BIG bat.

 

That 2 million we are saving this year does pretty much nothing, and doesn't Renfro's arby just go up even more next season, providing us no savings in 2023 either. (on JBJ's contract)

I don't think anyone thinks that. But saving a couple million this year and having a better player in Renfroe on the team, and then next year having Renfroe instead of nothing for the buyout of JBJ certainly doesn't hurt. If they were going to figure out a way to get a big bat with JBJ and his contract on the books, then they will still be able to after this move. And additionally they have Renfroe on the field instead of JBJ. Just doesn't seem to be much of a downside to all of it in the short term.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It isn't a wash, because Avi Garcia just signed for $53 million. That's what we replaced. We basically addressed the hole he created with what we were paying JBJ. JBJ gave us nothing, so if we had something earmarked to replace Avi, we can do something else with it now.

[PeaveyFury]

I don't see how saving 2 million on JBJ's contract will allow us to suddenly sign a big bat. 2 million is nothing.

 

I am for the trade, I just don't know how everyone is thinking we have all this extra money to play with now, and how that will translate into signing another BIG bat.

 

That 2 million we are saving this year does pretty much nothing, and doesn't Renfro's arby just go up even more next season, providing us no savings in 2023 either. (on JBJ's contract)

 

It's only two million if you place it directly vs. JBJ's contract. The assumption is probably better that they would have used Garcia's salary money from last year to sign his replacement, and then STILL had JBJ's contract to deal with. Now, they've essentially replaced Garcia and probably still have 7-10 million to use because of getting rid of JBJ.

 

EDIT: I think OSS said what I was trying to say better than I did while I was posting this.

[Lathund]

I don't see how saving 2 million on JBJ's contract will allow us to suddenly sign a big bat. 2 million is nothing.

 

I am for the trade, I just don't know how everyone is thinking we have all this extra money to play with now, and how that will translate into signing another BIG bat.

 

That 2 million we are saving this year does pretty much nothing, and doesn't Renfro's arby just go up even more next season, providing us no savings in 2023 either. (on JBJ's contract)

 

Which year the money is saved in doesn't really matter all that much, they can just structure any deal they make around that. Or take a loan. Before the trade they were committed to paying JBJ $17m more. Now they are paying Renfroe ~$7.5m (MLBTR estimate), and while he'd get a raise next year they have the option of non-tendering him. Money saved next year is relevant for any acquisition that isn't a 1-year deal only.

 

Not that I necessarily expect a big bat to be signed. Just that this trade alone improved our offense while also saving money.

[TURBO]

I don't see how saving 2 million on JBJ's contract will allow us to suddenly sign a big bat. 2 million is nothing.

 

I am for the trade, I just don't know how everyone is thinking we have all this extra money to play with now, and how that will translate into signing another BIG bat.

 

That 2 million we are saving this year does pretty much nothing, and doesn't Renfro's arby just go up even more next season, providing us no savings in 2023 either. (on JBJ's contract)

I don't think anyone thinks that. But saving a couple million this year and having a better player in Renfroe on the team, and then next year having Renfroe instead of nothing for the buyout of JBJ certainly doesn't hurt. If they were going to figure out a way to get a big bat with JBJ and his contract on the books, then they will still be able to after this move. And additionally they have Renfroe on the field instead of JBJ. Just doesn't seem to be much of a downside to all of it in the short term.

 

Well, hopefully Renfroe doesn't take the place of that big bat, and that is what worries me...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It isn't a wash, because Avi Garcia just signed for $53 million. That's what we replaced. We basically addressed the hole he created with what we were paying JBJ. JBJ gave us nothing, so if we had something earmarked to replace Avi, we can do something else with it now.

 

Exactly. Also, if they didn't do this deal, and ended up buying out JBJ for 2023 for $8 million, they still need to acquire someone to play RF in 2023 (while potentially suffering through a JBJ/Taylor/Peterson/Brousseu platoon in 2022).

[PeaveyFury]

I don't see how saving 2 million on JBJ's contract will allow us to suddenly sign a big bat. 2 million is nothing.

 

I am for the trade, I just don't know how everyone is thinking we have all this extra money to play with now, and how that will translate into signing another BIG bat.

 

That 2 million we are saving this year does pretty much nothing, and doesn't Renfro's arby just go up even more next season, providing us no savings in 2023 either. (on JBJ's contract)

I don't think anyone thinks that. But saving a couple million this year and having a better player in Renfroe on the team, and then next year having Renfroe instead of nothing for the buyout of JBJ certainly doesn't hurt. If they were going to figure out a way to get a big bat with JBJ and his contract on the books, then they will still be able to after this move. And additionally they have Renfroe on the field instead of JBJ. Just doesn't seem to be much of a downside to all of it in the short term.

 

Well, hopefully Renfroe doesn't take the place of that big bat, and that is what worries me...

 

Stearns' atypically candid comments after the deal yesterday suggest that isn't the case, for what it's worth.

[PeaveyFury]

Money saved next year is relevant for any acquisition that isn't a 1-year deal only.

 

This is a really good point as well. Even if Renfroe is simply a wash vs. JBJ contract-wise, it opens up the possibility of an addition via a backloaded contract (or someone who was similarly willing to take a deferral). After all, JBJ only actually made $3.5 million last year, so it's now very possible the Brewers could do something similar with hopefully far better results than that was.

[umphrey]

Who is our CF now? Tyrone Taylor with 60 games out of Cain?

[Simba2020]

My personal take on the trade is that it was largely a salary dump. Getting out of paying Bradley the $17.5 million (I believe) he was owed was the key driver. Renfroe is an upgrade over Bradley for sure but I'm not sure by how much since I have no clue how Taylor would have performed as the regular RF. Renfroe has never exceeded 2.0 in fWAR and I wouldn't expect more than fWAR of 1.5 this year. You could make the argument he had a career year in 2021 and still put up only fWAR of 1.8.

 

I know he is projected to earn $7.5 million in arbitration. That seems high to me. Although the arbitration process loves homers more than any other metric so it's possible. Still something closer to $6 million wouldn't seem like a stretch to me. However, if he does make $7.5 this year, he'd be a good bet to be over $10 million in 2023. Personally, I think he would be a strong non-tender candidate if that were to be the case.

 

Overall I think it was a fair trade because we got a major liability in Bradley off the books but I don't think we won the trade by any stretch.

[brewerfan82]

Well, hopefully Renfroe doesn't take the place of that big bat, and that is what worries me...

That's fair, but if they're tapped out on the payroll now and don't make another bigger move, I don't think they'd have been able to swing a deal for a big bat without this deal then as well. I think there's a good chance that Renfroe does take the primary role of RF with Taylor being the 4th OF. But who knows, maybe having RF locked up now without raising payroll they'll be able to take on the arbitration salaries of someone like Matt Olson this year and next when they wouldn't have if they had to spend $8-12m to fill RF on an average bat without this deal.

 

Wish we could fast forward past this lockout, it's going to take some real patience to see how the rest of the offseason plays out now!

[True Blue Brew Crew]

it's more or less a wash with Garcia gone

 

This is definitely right. But, they cleared a bad contract to essentially eliminate the need to acquire a specific replacement for Garcia's output. With the excess cash, they can now acquire a bat as an addition that they wouldn't have been able to before.

 

Somehow these dots are just not connecting with people. Then you add in the overvaluing of prospects who haven't even conquered AA ball yet and here we are.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I am generally a person who believes in building from within, so I tend to like prospects. Hamilton was interesting, but his skillset limits his upside. Binelas is fascinating because of his power - but I'm concerned about his ability to make enough contact against better pitching. If I was betting, I'd wager he's more likely to be a big bust rather than a successful regular major leaguer.

 

A non sports follower knowing nothing about these two players would be best served to bet on each being busts because that's by far the most likely result statistically given their current level of development. Followed closely by topping out as fringe major leaguers or getting a cup of coffee one day in the big leagues. Will it sting if one or both turn into quality MLBers? Of course. But to replace them with prospects at the same tier they are today isn't exactly hard.

[SRB]

I would imagine the majority of games Taylor & Cain play will be in the OF since they are both plus defenders. Of guys currently on the roster I'd expect Tellez, Yelich, maybe Renfroe in the mix with Hiura as a bounceback candidadte plus whoever else they pick up once the offseason resumes.

 

On paper, there's reason to be optimistic about Hiura and (drum roll)... Mike Brosseau at DH. Across the last three seasons (2019-2021) they have put up nice platoon numbers:

 

Hiura vs. RHP: .253/.329/.505/.834, .350 wOBA, 116 wRC+

Brosseau vs. LHP: .277/.336/.515/.851, .357 wOBA, 131 wRC+

 

We'd be betting on a rebound from both, but it's impressive that Hiura's three-year numbers are still so good despite how bad he was last year, and I'm confident that letting him DH full time without having to worry about defense (or learning an entirely new position in the majors!) will do wonders for him.

 

I think the Opening Day outfield will be Yelich-Cain-Renfroe, but between time off for Cain and rest days against RHP for Renfroe and inevitable injuries, it's pretty clear that all four of our top OF are going to get close to regular playing time.

[Eye Black]

For those of you talking about Seager, he already signed a 10 year deal with Texas.

 

Not that one, the other one. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/seageky01.shtml.

They’re the first set of brothers in MLB history to have each signed >$100-million contracts at some point in their careers.

[damuelle]

One player who may be quietly hopeful about about the JBJ trade is David Dahl. The LHH OF was an all-star in 2019 and is still only 27, so he’ll be pining for a shot to be our 5th outfielder. Of course, we’ll probably trade for Ben Gamel or something.

[NievesNoNO]

One player who may be quietly hopeful about about the JBJ trade is David Dahl. The LHH OF was an all-star in 2019 and is still only 27, so he’ll be pining for a shot to be our 5th outfielder. Of course, we’ll probably trade for Ben Gamel or something.

 

I didn't even realize Dahl was in our system. He's actually been useful vs rhp for his career and young enough to have a tinge of upside yet.

[stalton]

I could put this in any trade thread but I look at trades involving prospects to expected value akin the JosephC's trade value analysis.

 

Expected value states that a 80% chance of something worth 5 "points" (4) is better than a 10% chance of 20 points (2) and 25% chance of 6 (1.5).

 

Yet if either of the smaller chances hits, the actual results favors the worse odds.

 

If the chances of Binelas or Hamilton being impactful are static, does the actual results change whether it was a good or bad trade?

 

If I found 10 bucks on the street, was it a good decision to pocket the money instead of playing the lottery, whether I won or not?

[bork]

I like the trade, but don't know much about Renfroe. Led MLB in OF assists (16) and errors (12). How do you have 12 errors in the OF?

 

I believe the entire Brewer's OF last year had 15 assists and 8 errors.

[SRB]

One player who may be quietly hopeful about about the JBJ trade is David Dahl. The LHH OF was an all-star in 2019 and is still only 27, so he’ll be pining for a shot to be our 5th outfielder. Of course, we’ll probably trade for Ben Gamel or something.

 

I didn't even realize Dahl was in our system. He's actually been useful vs rhp for his career and young enough to have a tinge of upside yet.

 

Massive upside if he can stay healthy. Still only 27 years old and I didn't realize how well he did for us in AAA: 120 PA, .327/.375/.536, .394 wOBA, 142 wRC+. That's quite encouraging give his talent and former performance.

[sveumrules]

I like the trade, but don't know much about Renfroe. Led MLB in OF assists (16) and errors (12). How do you have 12 errors in the OF?

 

I believe the entire Brewer's OF last year had 15 assists and 8 errors.

 

Half of Renfroe's errors were of the throwing variety, when you have a strong arm you try to make more competitive throws which results in both higher assist & error totals. Similar to how a SS with good range will normally end up with more errors because they get to more balls.

 

Right field at Fenway is also notoriously difficult due to the weird field dimensions, I wouldn't be surprised if that inflated Hunter's error total somewhat as well.

[BrewCrewForever]

This is a good start. Renfroe is a quality player that pretty well replaces Avi Garcia. But they still need to get a little more of an impact bat via free agency or trade once the lockout ends. But this is a step in the right direction. And getting rid of JBJ and his entire contract is worth it.

[Eye Black]

The FanGraphs analysis of the trade was written by Eric Longenhagen…

 

Link: Brewers Fill Specific Need with Hunter Renfroe Trade

 

From the article, here is Eric’s take on David Hamilton and Alex Binelas:

 

Boston was also able to add two prospects in this trade in the speedy Hamilton and powerful Binelas. Hamilton, 24, only started seeing regular pro at-bats in 2021; he tore his Achilles during his draft year (2019) at Texas and missed his junior spring and what would have been his first pro summer, then was limited to spring training and instructional league in ’20 due to the cancellation of the minor league season. In his first affiliated at-bats last season, he hit .258/.341/.419 across High- and Double-A with 52 steals in 61 attempts, wrapping up his season with a few weeks of Arizona Fall League reps.

 

Hamilton’s ball/strike recognition, speed, and defensive acumen make him a high-probability role-playing infielder, and his feel to hit arguably makes him a more stable (but lower-ceiling) prospect than Downs, who will either hit enough to be an everyday second baseman or not. Look for Hamilton to be added to Boston’s 40-man roster next offseason. (This trade also creates a sort of reunion between him and Hudson Potts, who shared the left side of Texas’ Area Code infield way back in 2015.) Hamilton entered 2021 as a 40+ FV prospect — a likely 40 (light-hitting utility infielder) with some tip-of-the-iceberg upside created by all his time off. After a full season and lots of in-person looks, he’s likely to be a low-variance 40 FV on the offseason Red Sox prospect list.

 

Binelas’ triple slash line as a freshman at Louisville (.291/.383/.612) put him in this draft class’ first-round mix, even though he doesn’t have premium physical tools. His peripherals (a 20% strikeout rate, twice his walk rate) were not as dominant, and scouts were eager to see if he could repeat or improve upon his 2019, but a wrist injury and COVID-19 limited him to just two games in 2020. Then he struggled early in ’21 before getting hot for about a month in the middle of the college season and again during conference tournament play. Binelas is short to the ball and has big, majestic power, but his swing is fairly grooved. He struggles to contact fastballs up and away from him and has a scary strikeout-to-walk ratio for a corner infielder. He looks like a corner platoon bat who could move quickly. Boston’s recent draft/trade trends lean toward players like him, who perform on paper but fit toward the bottom of the defensive spectrum.

[wibadgers23]

The great thing about this trade is we replaced Avi with a similar player without adding to the payroll so they can still add another bat via free agency.