Brewers trade for Hunter Renfroe in exchange for Jackie Bradley Jr., David Hamilton and Alex Binelas

[Lathund]

We should also acknowledge that JBJ is unlikely to OPS .497 again. He was never a great hitter, but I really doubt he replicates last year. He is a really nice complementary player with his glove if he can get back to around .700.

 

Yeah he'll probably be better than he was, I don't think he's quite that bad. But this wasn't just bad, it would've been one of the worst, or even the worst, hitting season of all time if he had qualified. And it'll be his age-32 season. It's not a given that he'll get back to his career numbers (.705 OPS) at all. And it's not something I'd want to wager $17m on.

[jonescm128]

Renfroe has a 904 OPS against lefties in his career.

 

Going to pair perfectly with Kyle Schwarber

[jonescm128]

 

Wong

Adames

Yelich

Renfroe

Tellez

Urias

Narvaez

Cain

 

I dont hate that lineup.

The big thing we should add is:

 

- Full seasons from Adamas, Wong, Tellez, Cain.

- Rebound from Yelich.

 

Agreed! I’ll take 75% of MVP Yelich, he and Brewers need to figure out what is wrong with him.

 

Give me .280-.290, 30 HR, 90-100 RBI Yelich and we’ll be fine.

 

Hell, I will take .270, 20 HR, 70 RBI if he can get on base at a .370+ clip

[Devinep]

This is a really good trade. I’m surprised no money is going to Boston. Affordable, controllable RF and righty power was desperately needed. Taylor is a great 4th OF, especially when the DH addition gives him more ABs. When they add the DH after the lockout, just sign a 1B like Rizzo and call it a day.

[jonescm128]

2. The $ we freed up by dumping JBJ doesn't amount to much, in fact, it is barely a factor. Not enough to add to the pot to get another quality bat, that's for sure.

 

I'm not sure you can say that authoritatively. They freed up 9-10 million (again pending a closer look on my end on the deferrals), which is basically what got them Wong last year, who WAS an impact player.

 

More from Stearns: "There are some funds now that are freed up. (Owner) Mark (Attanasio) and the rest of our ownership group have been consistent and supportive if there's an opportunity that makes sense, we're free to discuss them and pursue them."

 

Another impact bat to the middle of this lineup and things are looking great.

[liveforoctober]

2. The $ we freed up by dumping JBJ doesn't amount to much, in fact, it is barely a factor. Not enough to add to the pot to get another quality bat, that's for sure.

 

I'm not sure you can say that authoritatively. They freed up 9-10 million (again pending a closer look on my end on the deferrals), which is basically what got them Wong last year, who WAS an impact player.

 

More from Stearns: "There are some funds now that are freed up. (Owner) Mark (Attanasio) and the rest of our ownership group have been consistent and supportive if there's an opportunity that makes sense, we're free to discuss them and pursue them."

 

Another impact bat to the middle of this lineup and things are looking great.

 

Schwarber.

[patrickgpe]

 

More from Stearns: "There are some funds now that are freed up. (Owner) Mark (Attanasio) and the rest of our ownership group have been consistent and supportive if there's an opportunity that makes sense, we're free to discuss them and pursue them."

 

Another impact bat to the middle of this lineup and things are looking great.

if they allocate the money they saved elsewhere i am happier with this move.

[TURBO]

Lets just acknowledge one thing quickly. We gave up these prospects in large part to acquire Renfroe...we didn't simply give these prospects up to dump the JBJ contract. Renfroe was not going to be free. 3/4 of the last four season he has a WAR around 2.5...COVID year and his 139 PAs being the outlier. There is certainly some value in a player like Renfroe, that we control an additional year.

 

I would rather have this over the comical contract Avi got. The fact we got Renfroe and saved all his contract plus some should play a big role in what else we can add before the start of the season.

 

 

Actually, I think it was both, I don't think you can say one way or the other what role the prospects played in dumping JBJ's salary.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Obviously it was both. But I think Boston is happy to have JBJ. I remember Schoop saying he just never felt comfortable in Milwaukee. Sometimes it just happens and analytics won't help you find out that a guy just doesn't fit in somewhere. Some moves just flop.

 

I liked the signing originally, I know plenty of folks did not. I am also happy to move on from it, acknowledge it was bad...but I think you get more of the career norm JBJ in 2021 for Boston. I'd have less confidence in him doing that here. It just did not seem to work, though I had an open mind about him getting a 2nd chance. Clearly the Brewers thought they couldn't afford him that chance. I think losing Garcia made it obvious they had to get a safer bat on the roster.

[clancyphile]

I’m on the fence about this one. I feel like it still leaves us with an incomplete outfield and I was optimistic that JBJ could bounce back a little bit.

 

Pros:

Renfore is definitely a power bat that balanes the lefties (Yelich/Tellez/Narvaez) in the lineup

JBJ is off our books, and Boston will be banking on a rebound

Two years of control

 

Cons:

Gave up two prospects, each with plus tools (Hamilton's speed/SB totals and Binelas's power)

Tyrone Taylor arguably would have produced similarly while getting paid far less.

OBP skills are below MLB average.

 

The big difference is that Tyrone Taylor as opposed to JBJ is the 4th outfielder. The Brewers have a higher floor, and arguably a similar ceiling in terms of OF offense. The effective cost was two prospects who were both looking to be solid contributors, something that is a bit of a long-term risk for one of the smallest markets in MLB.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

As for the negative of Taylor not being given a chance: He certainly will be. Yelich and Cain won't play every game, and with the likely introduction of the DH I'd expect Yelich and Renfroe takes a lot of those at bats freeing up an OF spot. And then there's injuries. Taylor will play plenty.

 

Exactly. Any OF that employs Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich is going to need a 4th OF that is capable of playing every day for long stretches. Taylor, should he himself maintain his health, will be a near regular in 2022.

[JohnBriggs12]

I kind of like the idea of signing Kyle Seager, moving Urias to 2B and trading Kolton Wong.

[JohnBriggs12]

I kind of like the idea of signing Kyle Seager, moving Urias to 2B and trading Kolton Wong.

 

Seager will be cheaper and have a shorter deal than Schwarber, and Wong would bring back significant value off his 2021 season.

[adambr2]

Offense did this team in in the postseason, but it was in particular the hitting against LHP that was our Achilles heel. This move addresses that, for a guy we wanted to be rid of anyway. It's in essence replacing JBJ with a cheaper Avi Garcia, which I think we can all agree is a good thing.

[TURBO]

I've seen the idea of trading Wong here a lot recently.

 

Man, that seems like a bad idea unless the return was super duper!

 

He is a great lead-off guy, a wiz with the glove, and a great leader and teammate.

 

Who leads off if we moved him?

 

I'd like to keep him for 2022 myself...

[clancyphile]

I kind of like the idea of signing Kyle Seager, moving Urias to 2B and trading Kolton Wong.

 

Better idea:

Sign Kyle Seagar as the primary 3B against lefties (Urias is there against righties), have Urias spell Adames at short once a week or so, and also have him cover second for Wong if he needs a day off.

[mtrebs]

I kind of like the idea of signing Kyle Seager, moving Urias to 2B and trading Kolton Wong.

 

Better idea:

Sign Kyle Seagar as the primary 3B against lefties (Urias is there against righties), have Urias spell Adames at short once a week or so, and also have him cover second for Wong if he needs a day off.

 

Yes, I like the idea of Urias being a super-utility player, bouncing between 3B and 2B to keep him in the lineup often. I don’t want to see Wong traded if possible as his defense is amazing and I believe his contract is pretty favorable to the Brewers.

[Axman59]

Some Brewerfan posters: We NEED another legit middle-of-the-order, 30+ HR needle-moving bat in this lineup, and can't be afraid to move our top prospects to acquire him. We simply CANNOT stomach another year of Jackie Bradley Jr. flailing away in this terrible lineup.

 

David Stearns trades two decent but middling prospects PLUS Jackie Bradley Jr. for a legit middle-of-the-order 30+ HR bat (whether he's a true needle-mover is somewhat debatable).

 

Brewerfan posters: No, not THAT one! Renfroe has been on three teams in the last 4 years! That means he sucks and/or is a bad teammate! Plus Binelas and Hamilton are future all-stars, and JBJ is gonna rebound and be great! Terrible trade!

 

 

Come on guys! The Brewers managed to acquire a power corner OF bat that will be able to step in to Garcia's shoes, who is younger and at a fraction of the cost. And they gave up a couple ok-ish prospects, while ridding themselves of an obviously mistake contract. There is very little downside I see to this deal.

 

 

You spend a lot of time on this board telling other people they are wrong, when in reality, none of knows what the future will bring. Binelas (just taking one example in the trade) may end being the next Jeff Bagwell (who was traded by the Red Sox to the Astros for 22 innings from Larry Anderson) or he might be one of a million guys included in a trade who never sniffs the majors. And Renfroe might put up a 2-3 WAR season or he might regress to his replacement level 2020 performance. So crapping on the opinions of others is probably not in order.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You spend a lot of time on this board telling other people they are wrong, when in reality, none of knows what the future will bring. Binelas (just taking one example in the trade) may end being the next Jeff Bagwell (who was traded by the Red Sox to the Astros for 22 innings from Larry Anderson) or he might be one of a million guys included in a trade who never sniffs the majors. And Renfroe might put up a 2-3 WAR season or he might regress to his replacement level 2020 performance. So crapping on the opinions of others is probably not in order.

 

But then most of you have been conditioned over the years to eating gruel so you ignore the USDA Prime ribeye that other fans get to eat.

 

Careful tossing around those stones in your glass house.

 

For the record, I'm pissed that Binelas had to be included in this deal. But at the end of the day, you have to chalk it up to the price of doing business to rectify a wrong. Stearns swung and missed on JBJ. Big time.

 

I do apologize if you are insulted. It is obvious that what was I thought a somewhat lighthearted attempt at humor in that post is not being seen that way by a few posters.

Edited December 2, 2021 by Ron Robinson's Beard

[tmwiese55]

In terms of Taylor discussion have to remember the likelihood of DH too. Good chance guys like Yeli/Cain/Renfroe would spend a lot of time DHing so in general just saying there's still plenty of ABs for the 4th OF like Taylor, especially along with likely DL stints here and there. Also, due to DH likelihood it makes sense to sacrifice D for O in a deal like this.

 

This could also apply to the Seager or similar IF added discussion. We've kinda replaced Avi with this deal, but still need to add one more OK/good hitter because of the likely DH. Granted, at least it seems they won't be able to or have to make that last move until they know for sure on the DH.

[narwhalattack]

I would’ve preferred dealing from a surplus rather than from a position that is lacking. I don’t mind dealing Hamilton because we’re very deep in the middle IF position. The same can’t be said about Binelas and 1B/3B.

[StearnsFTW]

I kind of like the idea of signing Kyle Seager, moving Urias to 2B and trading Kolton Wong.

 

Better idea:

Sign Kyle Seagar as the primary 3B against lefties (Urias is there against righties), have Urias spell Adames at short once a week or so, and also have him cover second for Wong if he needs a day off.

 

Yes, I like the idea of Urias being a super-utility player, bouncing between 3B and 2B to keep him in the lineup often. I don’t want to see Wong traded if possible as his defense is amazing and I believe his contract is pretty favorable to the Brewers.

 

As do I. I'd really like to see him get some work at 1B this spring. Good stick to replace Tellez vs LHP.

[markedman5]

From Will Sammon

A few American League executives quickly polled for thoughts on the deal gave the edge to the Brewers, in part, because they weren’t overly excited about the prospects. In talking with scouts and coaches before this trade, however, I mostly heard good things about Binelas, a power-hitting corner infielder, and Hamilton, a speedy shortstop who has a knack for getting on base.

 

On Binelas, one source said, “He has plus-power, but there’s a lot of work to do defensively.

[JosephC]

I'd put surplus values as follows.

 

Just using 3-year numbers with the 0.5 WAR deduction after age 30 because that is the most unbiased way to do it.

 

Since 2020 was only 37% of a season, 2019-2021 totals were divided by 2.37 to get a per year WAR average.

 

Average bWAR/fWAR for Bradley comes out to 1.1. Subtract 0.5 WAR as he is over 30. Then I do another adjustment as a sub-3 WAR player, details are lengthy and I'm not going to go into them. So he projects to a 0.6 WAR player in 2022, but I'd only value him as a 0.2 WAR player. 0.2 * 9 = 1.8 million. He is unlikely to play 2023 under his current contract as that deal has a mutual option, so the value does not come off of 1.8 million. The remaining amount of money on his deal is 21.5 million, so 1.8 - 21.5....I have his surplus value as a -19.7 million dollars.

 

Renfroe has two arbitration years left. Average bWAR/fWAR over the last three years comes out to 1.7 WAR. So he is projected to 1.7 WAR in 2022 and then 1.2 WAR in 2023 as it will be his age 31 season. Then, like I subtracted an additional 0.4 WAR from Bradley as a sub-3 WAR player, Renfroe gets dinged 0.2 WAR in 2022 and 0.3 WAR in 2023. So that puts him at 1.5 in 2022 and 0.9 in 2023, 2.4 WAR total. 2.4 * 9 = 21.6 million. MLB Trade Rumors puts a 7.6 million dollar arbitration estimate on him in 2022, and I'll put a 9.25 million estimate on him for the following year. So 21.6 - 7.6 - 9.25 = +4.75 million in surplus value.

 

Here is kind of the crazy part. I haven't seen Baseball America's latest rankings, but MLB Trade Rumors says Hamilton and Binelas were both in the Brewers top 20 prospects at mid-season. It's probably safe to say neither of them are top 300 prospects when looking at all the minors. Those two things would have me slot both of them as "role-player prospects" and I put a 5.5 million dollar surplus value on each of those guys (making them the two most valuable pieces in the deal).

 

So in terms of the straight, as unbiased as I can be, surplus value calculations.

 

Boston gets-

Bradley = -19.7

Hamilton = +5.5

Binelas = +5.5

Total = -8.7

 

Brewers get-

Renfroe = +4.75

Total = +4.75

 

So quite the advantage to Milwaukee. That said, I can understand why Boston made this deal. The difference in salary between Bradley and Renfroe is not that great this season (<2 million), they are a team that can run a 200 million dollar payroll and have money coming off the books after next season (making it easier to deal with the extra money going to Bradley) and could very well be selling high on Renfroe (.315 OBP in 2021 is significantly above his somewhat pitiful career .297 OBP). So they have that along with the two prospects in making this swap.

[mtrebs]

So, with the work stoppage, is this trade able to be finalized or does it have to wait until any freeze is over?